Quarterback/Wide Receiver
Oklahoma State
6-2 214
40 time: 4.71
Draft board overall prospect rank: #127
Draft board quarterback rank: #8
Overall rating: 64*
1/30/10: Though he still may ultimately end up at wide receiver, Robinson showed he can throw by throwing for 175 yards on 12-21, with one touchdown and one pick. He showed a much stronger arm than he did in Oklahoma State’s offense this year, which was centered around the short pass. He really looked like the 3rd round prospect he was last year before going into this season without his top two receivers from 2008 and struggling. He really showed what he can do with a good supporting cast.
1/16/10: Really struggled this year compared to last year, but that’s understandable as he was without his top two receivers from 2008, Brandon Pettigrew (NFL), and Dez Bryant (suspension). I don’t think he’s a quarterback at the next level, though he may prove me wrong. He’s probably better off as a wildcat or a wide receiver at the next level, a la Josh Cribbs, but he could surprise some people and turn into a decent signal caller as well.
Update (11/2/09): Only time will tell if he’s a legit quarterback or just a slow receiver, but he’s doing a great job this year and is worth in shot in the 3rd round.
6/13/09: Zac Robinson is one of the more intriguing quarterback prospects in the draft class. His throwing numbers last year as a junior, 3064 yards passing 65% completion 25:10 TD:INT ratio, were could be not great for a spread offense quarterback and teams would much rather take Colt McCoy if they were to take a spread quarterback. However, what Oklahoma State runs is not a pure spread. Yes, they pass a lot, use the option, and make short passes, but unlike Colt McCoy and a lot of the spread quarterbacks who went on to be busts, Robinson takes the majority of his snaps from under center, instead of in shotgun. He has experience with 3, 5, and 7 step drops, although a lot more experience with 3 step drops. Also, if he doesn’t pan out as a quarterback, he has the speed and athleticism to try another position. Last season he ran for 562 yards and 8 touchdowns and the season before he ran for 847 yards and 9 scores. His frame is too small to play running back in the NFL, but he can play some receiver. His 40 is a little high for a receiver, but he has good height. He also would be a very interesting option for teams wanting to use more of the wildcat offense. I actually like him more than Pat White. White is faster, but Robinson has a much greater chance of catching on as a quarterback somewhere and Robinson is a lot bigger than White. He should be available in the 3rd round. If I were a team who can some questions at the quarterback position and could afford to take a quarterback prospect, I would rather than him that someone like Tim Hiller or Max Hall, even though those two guys are higher rater on my board as throwers, because Robinson can play another position if he proves he cannot play quarterback, but still has a very good chance of making it as a quarterback in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Julian Edelman
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Zach Miller Seahawks
Zach Miller is a good tight end, but I disagree on principle with the Seahawks giving Zach Miller and Sidney Rice a combined 78 million over 5 years (35.5 million guaranteed) when they don’t have a good quarterback. They won’t be getting as much value out of those two without a good quarterback. Also, unlike Sidney Rice, I don’t think Miller is quite worth this even with a good quarterback. This contract is worth more per year than the franchise tag value for a tight end, with half of that guaranteed. I don’t think Miller deserves to be paid like a top 5 tight end.
Grade: D
Zach Brown Scout
Outside Linebacker/Middle Linebacker
North Carolina
6-1 244
Draft board overall prospect rank: #14
Draft board outside linebacker rank: #1
Overall rating: 88 (Solid first round prospect)
40 time: 4.44
Games watched: North Carolina/Louisville, Clemson/North Carolina, NC State/North Carolina, Virginia Tech/North Carolina
Positives
· Incredibly athletic
· Long arms
· Fast sideline to sideline ability
· Excellent timed speed (4.44)
· Unofficially clocked at 4.28 before the season
· Great burst and explosiveness
· Moves like a defensive back
· Covers tight ends and backs out of the backfield very well
· Had tight one on one coverage with Dwayne Allen in their matchup
· Makes a lot of splash plays
· An excellent blitzer
· Great quickness of the edge
· Incredibly productive in 2011 (105 tackles, 13.5 for loss, 5.5 sacks, 4 deflections, 3 interceptions)
· Could project to 3-4 as a middle linebacker
· Great ball skills
· Reads quarterbacks’ eyes ball
· Dangerous in open field after interception
· In great shape
· Puts forth good effort on the field
Negatives
· A little undersized
· Needs to be more reactive
· Relies more on his physical abilities than technique
· Reportedly has attitude issues and had problems with his coaches
· Only a one year starter
· Goes for the big hit rather than the safer tackle
· Unrefined as a big rusher
· Technique in coverage could use some work
· Doesn’t always take the best route to the ball carrier
NFL Comparison: NaVorro Bowman
Brown reminds me of NaVorro Bowman. Bowman fell to the 3rd round in 2010 even though he had 1st round talent because of character concerns and attitude problems. He was incredibly athletic, but unrefined. The 49ers took a chance on him in the 3rd round and he’s fallen into the perfect situation in San Francisco, even though many thought he wouldn’t fit in a 3-4. He’s become one of the best middle linebackers in the league as Jim Harbaugh and his staff have brought the most out of him.
If Brown lands with a coaching staff that can bring the most out of him, he can be just as good of a player. Conversely, if he lands in the wrong place, he won’t be nearly as good as he could be. He’s a fantastic athletic and even better than Bowman. He showed it with a 4.44 40 at 6-1 244 at The Combine and can fit into any scheme because, at his best, he’s got such versatile abilities and athleticism.
He’s still unrefined, but he’s a 3 down linebacker who can drop into coverage and cover fast tight ends and running backs and he is a very effective blitzer when called on. He always seems to make splash plays when I watch him and he had such a productive 2011 season, though his play trailed a bit as the season went on. He is only a one year starter, but he had a good 2010 season as a reserve who made a few starts.
Brown will probably go in the 2nd round, but I have a 1st round grade on him. I think he is such a rare athlete and with some good coaching, he can be a special player. I agree there’s some boom or bust to him with the rawness and the rumored attitude problems, but I think the positives outweigh the negatives with him. He is in excellent physical shape and puts forth good effort on the football field on tape.
Wisconsin/Ohio State
Spotlight #1: Ohio State RB Dan Herron
Spotlight #2: Wisconsin WR Nick Toon
1st quarter
12:05: Dan Herron gets 11, dancing in the backfield and then cuts back through a big hole.
11:26: Herron gets a yard or two on a run off the left tackle.
8:30: Toon goes up and gets a pass for 20 yards in spite of pass interference. Also a very good job of keeping his feet in bounds.
6:46: Herron takes a hand off out of the shot gun, stuffed for a loss by Wisconsin linebacker Mike Taylor. Went down way too easily. Not a powerful run.
4:59: Herron tackles for loss again by Mike Taylor, poor vision to cut back into a tackle and a weak fight after contact.
3:06: Mike Taylor is everywhere. Herron is out of the game, but Taylor is in on another tackle for a loss or no gain on the running back.
0:37: Herron through a hole for about 6 or 7 yards.
2nd quarter
14:50: Herron poor vision again to not find an open hole, tackle for a short gain, tackle again by Mike Taylor.
14:19: Herron with a good rush up the middle to convert 3rd and 2.
13:46: Herron has space, tries a cutback, but not the strongest cut back and a nice open field tackle by the defender for a loss.
9:51: Toon catches a short pass, takes a big hit afterwards, but holds on.
7:58: Herron down a seam for a few. Still not a lot of yards after contact.
5:09: Herron shows some acceleration to the outside, but no room. Loss of 2.
4:27: Herron stuffed at the line. Mike Taylor with his 10th tackle of the game already.
0:49: Herron pushes the pile for a few.
0:44: Herron, not much up the middle.
3rd quarter
14:43: Big hole for Boom Herron, good vision and speed for 57 yards, brought down by 3 guys in the open field after dragging the pile. This is easily his best run of the night so far.
14:01: Botched snap by Mike Brewster, the consensus top center in this draft class.
13:35: Herron fast in space for another sizeable gain.
13:16: Herron can’t do anything at the goal line.
12:54: Herron on the goal line again, bounces to the outside, but can’t get the touchdown again.
12:42: Herron stuffed on the goal line again.
11:28: Toon overthrown deep by Wilson. Well covered.
7:55: Russell Wilson under pressure, throws it over the head of Toon. Pressure by John Simon, who had a sack earlier. He’s been impressed by the junior defensive tackle’s motor, but at 6-3 270, it’s unclear where he will play at the next level.
4:05: Herron not a lot up the middle.
2:57: Herron cuts back and finds a hole and a good gain on 3rd and 1.
2:25: Herron for 10 in space out of the wildcat, brought back by penalty.
0:46: Taylor with a pass deflection now.
4th quarter
14:21: Herron good vision to run away from the blitz, 7 yards in space.
13:54: Herron with a yard up the middle.
13:12: Herron barely converts 3rd and 1 on forward progress.
12:44: Herron explosive for a big gain through a big hole.
12:10: Herron stuffed at the line.
11:30: Herron dances around, can’t find anything, little to no gain.
9:47: Toon takes a pass in the flat, breaks, a couple tackles, good moves for 14.
8:45: Toon almost makes an awesome deep catch. Extends against tight coverage, but can’t quite finish the catch.
8:01: Herron stuffed at the line.
7:18: Herron nice cut back out of the wild cat for a few. Could have been a negative play.
5:25: Herron for a couple up the middle.
4:39: Herron not in on a key 2 point conversion. He’s being taken out on the goal line for a smaller back after his earlier struggles in this area.
4:09: Toon targeted, but inaccurate out of bounds by Wilson.
3:39: Herron with a short gain.
2:55: Herron with a few.
0:38: Herron gets a good push from his line to convert 3rd and 1.
0:13: Toon makes a good play downfield to break up an errant pass that could have been picked.
0:05: Toon drops a tough catch, but he might have done it on purpose. Wisconsin had no timeouts left with 5 seconds left and the catch was over the middle. If he makes this catch, it’s game over as there was a guy draped on him who would have taken him down and ended the game.
0:00: This was Boom Herron’s 2nd game back from suspension. He had 1155 yards and 16 touchdowns on 216 carries. In his first game back, he had 114 yards and a score on 23 carries. In this one, he had 160 yards on 33 carries. However, take away 57 yard run and he had 103 yards on 32 carries. That was more indicative of how he ran in this one.
Living up to his name, Boom Herron had one big Boom play, that long run, but he had a lot of Bust as well. You can’t be this boom or bust if you’re going to be a consistent running back in the NFL. He didn’t show a lot of yards after contact. He had a few nice cuts, but he’s not the shiftiest back either. He also doesn’t have the best vision.
He’s got a good offensive line blocking for him and he’s great in space with good speed and explosiveness, but I don’t think he has enough to be a lead back in the NFL. He really struggled in short yardage, including 3 stuffs on the goal line. He’s not all that small at 5-10 205, but he runs smaller than that. He looks like a mid rounder.
Herron’s nemesis in this one was Mike Taylor. Taylor, who was responsible for several of Herron’s bust plays all by himself, finished with a whopping 22 tackles, 2.5 for loss, and a pass deflection. The 6-2 230 junior linebacker has come out of nowhere this season to have 86 tackles, 7.5 for loss, 2 deflections, and a pick on the season in 8 games. Should he declare, he could be a day 2 pick, but considering he only has one year of good production, it would be beneficial to his stock for him to return for his senior season.
Herron’s counterpart in this game is Wisconsin’s Montee Ball, a day 2 pick at running back. Ohio State’s front 7 played him well, led by linebacker Andrew Sweat and defensive tackle John Simon, but Ball kept his stock steady with 85 yards on 17 carries. Wisconsin’s offensive line played well again and all 3 of their early draftable offensive linemen, Ricky Wagner, Peter Konz, and Kevin Zietler should see their stock stay stable.
Andrew Sweat had 8 tackles in the game to give the senior linebacker 57 tackles in 8 games. The 6-2 235 pound senior looks like a late rounder. John Simon is a junior and will almost definitely return for his senior season. I love his motor, but at 6-3 270, where does this defensive tackle play at the next level. He caused problems for Montee Ball. He had 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, and got consistent pressure on the quarterback. On the season, he has 29 tackles, 9.5 for loss, and 5 sacks.
Simon didn’t just cause problems for Montee Ball, he caused them for Russell Wilson. Wilson still had a good game, which he needed after struggling a bit against Michigan State, his first tough test of the year. Wilson was 20 of 32 for 257 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks. He should stay a mid round pick. Wilson didn’t throw to his favorite target Nick Toon all that much. Toon caught 3 passes for 39 yards. Toon might still be suffering from his foot injury. In 7 games, he has 30 catches for 544 yards and 6 scores. He’s stock is in the 3rd round range. He’s a smart player, a 3 year starter for a conservative offense, and a great athlete at 6-3 220, but he hasn’t been able to shake injuries in the past 2 seasons.
Wisconsin/Nebraska
Spotlight #1: Nebraska DT Jared Crick
Spotlight #2: Wisconsin S Aaron Henry
1st quarter
14:51: Crick run at, disengages, tackle for short gain.
13:42: Crick unblocked into backfield, whiffs on a tackle as a quick quarterback is able to evade it.
13:07: Crick sealed off the play on a run.
12:19: Crick double teamed on a blitz, Lavonte David, the linebacker, with a sack. Lavonte David is one of several highly rated prospects on Nebraska’s defense. He’s projected in about round 2 right now.
11:05: Henry finishes a guy off after a first down completion earned by breaking a couple tackles.
10:52: Henry helps in coverage on a deep route, runs well with the receiver, incomplete pass.
7:32: Henry explodes in for a clutch stop just short of the first on 2nd down.
6:53: Henry in on a fumble, recovered by Nebraska.
5:58: Henry shows poor instincts on a goal line run.
5:16: Crick breaks into the backfield, but the quarterback rolls away from him.
4:39: Crick forced off of the line on a run play.
4:00: Crick forced off of the line on a pass play, eventually forces the quarterback out of bounds on a decided quarterback run after a big gain.
2:51: Crick with a nice swim move, but misses a dive tackle on a powerful running back, Montee Ball.
2:16: Crick pancaked.
1:28: Crick muscled off the line on the goal line. He’s struggling with this stronger Wisconsin line.
2nd quarter
14:53: Henry on a nice tackle on a big quarterback run.
13:36: Henry blocked off the play on a big YAC catch.
12:31: Nick Toon with an amazing catch for Wisconsin against double coverage 38 yards. This is one for the highlight reel.
12:11: Crick run at, unable to disengage.
11:14: Crick gets push and gets his hands up, almost able to deflect it.
10:54: Crick with a nice swim move, but the quarterback is so fast, runs right past him.
9:48: Crick pushed off run play again, run at, can’t disengage. He’s having all kinds of trouble with Wisconsin’s line.
6:36: Nick Toon with a nice catch on not the most accurate short slant.
6:08: Lavonte David with his 2nd sack of the night.
4:52: Mike Taylor, who has made a few nice run plays, makes a pick as a coverage linebacker.
4:38: Crick with a weak effort on a pass play. Took that play off big time.
3:54: Crick with another lazy effort. He seems to be putting in less effort, frustrated with Wisconsin’s line dominating him. That’s a very bad thing.
3:41: Toon gets position, short first down catch. I’ve been very impressed with him.
1:20: Henry with nice coverage and gets the pick on an overthrow. He was in the right place at the right time and the ball was pretty much thrown to him.
1:01: Crick goes in coverage on a blitz out of necessity and gets a tackle after a short completion.
0:52: Nick Toon with another touchdown. Huge game for the senior receiver.
3rd quarter
14:40: Crick blocked, able to disengage and get in on the tackle, but only after a 9 yard gain.
11:49: Crick pushed off the line on 4th and short, Wisconsin converts.
8:53: Crick gets into the backfield and pressures the quarterback.
8:25: Run right through Crick’s gap, Crick can’t disengage.
7:53: Lazy effort by Crick after being beat off the snap and pushed back big time. Give up play.
7:08: Crick shies away from helping on a tackle.
4th quarter
14:55: Henry in on a tackle on a quarterback run stopped for a short gain.
12:41: Lavonte David explosive to blow up play in the backfield. He’s been Nebraska’s most impressive defensive player tonight.
5:11: Montee Ball with his 4th rushing touchdown on the night. He’s looked like a very good back tonight. It’s worth noting that Crick wasn’t in on that entire series.
4:54: Henry with a tackle on the sideline.
0:00: I watched this game because Jared Crick has recently torn a pectoral muscle and is out for the season, and thus for his college career as he is a senior. The last time I saw Crick was against Washington and I said he was the most talented player on the field. He had an excellent game, but that’s Washington. This is Wisconsin.
Crick was absolutely outmuscled by Wisconsin’s big line. I know Wisconsin might have the best offensive line in college football, but Crick is going to play to go against lines like this all the time in the NFL. They dominated him for most of the game and on several plays, he appeared to give up after getting beat off the snap. At 6-5 285, Crick probably doesn’t have the size or strength to stay inside at defensive tackle in the NFL. He belongs at 3-4 defensive end, much like former Nebraska defensive tackle Adam Carriker.
Crick is quick and long. He uses his great, long arms to bat balls down, or, in this game, block a field goal. He’s a good pass rusher as well and even got some pressure in this game. He has 19.5 sacks in the last 2 plus years, but he’s not good enough against the run to stay inside in the NFL against NFL caliber lines, which Wisconsin really is.
Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, once a projected first round pick, struggled some in coverage tonight as well. However, Lavonte David impressed once again. He had 2 sacks and looked explosive all night long. He certainly didn’t give up in this game. He’s solidified his standing as a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.
As for Wisconsin, Aaron Henry is their best defense player and one of the top safeties in this very weak safety class. He’s solid in coverage and played deep on most plays. He looked great in coverage and had a nice pick as well. He also played pretty well against the run, but he wasn’t in on a ton of running plays because Wisconsin does line him up so deep because of his coverage abilities.
Mike Taylor is another talented defensive player for Wisconsin. He not only had a pick, but he also had 14 tackles on the day to give the senior 36 tackles in 4 games. The senior linebacker is moving up boards and getting onto NFL scouts’ radar as a senior. Right now, he projects as a day 3 prospect, but he and Henry are the only legitimate NFL prospects on Wisconsin’s defense.
Fortunately, they make up for it with all of their talented players on offense. Center Peter Konz, right guard Kevin Zietler, and left tackle Ricky Wagner could all be day 2 picks or higher. Konz especially had a great game tonight against Jared Crick and another talented Nebraska defensive lineman Baker Steinkuhler. I’ll have to spotlight him, but after talented Ohio State center Mike Brewster, he might be the best center in this class.
Wisconsin also has a lot of skill position talent. Nick Toon had several highlight reel catches. He caught 4 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown to give the senior receiver 25 catches for 447 yards and 6 scores on the year. He also looks like a day 2 prospect. Another potential day 2 prospect is Montee Ball, who rushed for 4 touchdowns tonight. On the year, he has 93 catches for 511 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. He’s also caught 6 passes for 120 yards and another score.
Finally, there’s Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson is undersized at 5-11 200, but he has a high release point on his throws like Drew Brees, who is also about 6 foot tall. He’s mobile as well and he’s got a strong arm, especially for his size. He’s having a fantastic season for Wisconsin, completing 74.8% of his passes for an average of 12.6 per attempt and 13 touchdowns to 1 interception, as well as 140 yards rushing and 2 rushing touchdowns. I’ll have to spotlight him at some point, but if he keeps this up and he picks football over baseball, he could be a mid round prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft.
Willis McGahee Broncos
McGahee probably doesn’t have a ton left in the tank. He’s 30 in October and this deal takes him until he’s 32, a 3 year deal, and he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last year. However, he only has 1541 career carries which makes him fresher than a lot of backs his age and he hasn’t had to carry a load since 2007. He was the best running back remaining, assuming Ahmad Bradshaw and Michael Bush return to their respective teams, and the Broncos needed another back to go with Knowshon Moreno. They also got him on a fairly low risk contract, 3 years, 7.5 million, with 3 million guaranteed.
Grade: A
Willie Parker Redskins
Are the Redskins trying to sign every washed up running back in the league? Clinton Portis will turn 29 next season. He’s the incumbent starter, but he had some nasty issues last year with a concussion, as well as leg injuries, and only managed 494 yards and a score on 124 carries. He’s the young one of the group. Parker turns 30 in November and is coming off of two injury riddled years. He only managed 389 yards and no scores on 98 carries last year. Larry Johnson turns 31 in November. He leads the group in carries (178) and yards (581) from last year, but he still didn’t score a touchdown all year and managed a pathetic 3.3 YPC. All 3 of those guys will be 29 or older next year, which is like being 39 in normal years. I really don’t see a starting running back anywhere in this group and adding all of these washed up veterans is hurting them for the future. First of all, they might not have another roster spot for another running back, though I know Mike Shanahan would love to take a guy in the 5th round. Second of all, the only way they can get that young, talented running back, any experience at all, would be to piss off a bunch of old established veterans who think they are still 25, 26, still get paid like feature backs, but are not.
Grade: C-
Willie Colon Steelers
Resigning Colon to a long term deal is a risk because he missed all of last season with an injury, but if he can stay healthy and bounce back from that injury as the player he was before the injury, he’s well worth the 29 million over 5 years the Steelers gave him, as one of the best right tackle in the league. Good news for Steelers fan, only 7.5 million of this deal is guaranteed so it’s fairly low risk.
Grade: A
William Gay Cardinals
The Cardinals lost Richard Marshall in free agency to the Dolphins, so they had to do something to get a new nickel cornerback. That’s exactly what Gay can do for them. He’s coming over from Pittsburgh, so he’ll have familiarity in their style of defense and he comes very cheap, 3.2 million over 2 years, compared to Marshall, who got 16 million over 3 years from Miami.
Grade: A
Wild Card Round Picks
Last week overall: 12-4
Last week ATS: 9-7 (+230/+6%)
Overall picks: 168-88 (.656)
ATS Picks: 136-113-7 (+$2680)
Lock picks: 12-5
Upset picks: 32-35 (+1538)
Week 17 recap: I managed to make money ($230 or 6%) despite losing a 5 unit and a 4 unit pick in my lowest money 16 game week of the season. This is because I nailed my 2nd 6 unit pick of the season. New England -3 at home over Miami seemed too good to be true, but it wasn’t and it came through huge for me this week.
I only had 5 picks of 3 or more units this week, because of how uncertain week 17 can be. Despite dropping my 5 unit (St. Louis -3 over Seattle) and my 4 unit (Arizona +6.5 over San Francisco), I was 3-2 in those 5 picks, hitting with New England as well as Oakland +4 over Kansas City and Tampa Bay +9.5 over New Orleans for 3 units a piece.
I want to comment on the St. Louis game and all of the terrible calls made by the officials. I’m not blaming my lost 5 units on the refs. I still think the Seahawks win that game even with correct officiating, but the officiating was horrible and needs to be mentioned.
The refs missed an off sides call on Aaron Curry in which Curry was actually looking around for a flag after the play, expecting to be called off sides. Cris Collinsworth and Al Michaels (best football announcers on the planet) blasted the refs for missing this call. They also missed a low block on a punt and a pass interference call, both on the Seahawks.
Finally, they called a first down at least 1 yard short of the sticks, causing Al Michaels to scream “they gave him a first down?!?!” Now of course Steve Spagnuolo could have challenged the spot of the ball (as well as a very borderline out of bounds call on what looked like a clean catch), but someone seems to have stolen all of his red flags, because he didn’t throw one all night.
Overall, I was 9-7 on the week bringing me to 136-113-7 on the season against the spread, which I am pleased with, as this is my first season doing against the spread. I went 12-4 on the week straight up, bringing me to 168-88 straight up on the year (65.6%). Last year I finished 166-90, so I made a two game improvement. In 2008, I went 153-102-1.
This week I split four upset picks, hitting Oakland over Kansas City (+180) and Dallas over Philadelphia (+135) and dropping Washington over the Giants and Jacksonville over Houston. This brought my upset pick record to 32-35 on the season. Betting $100 on each of those games’ money lines, I would have made $1538 on the season, in addition to $2680 from my ATS picks (betting roughly $4500-$5000 per week). Last year, I went 19-29 on upsets and in 2008 I went 21-27.
On lock picks, I went 12-5 this year, down a game from 13-4 in 2009, and down 2 from 14-3 in 2008, which I find interesting. I don’t assign any monetary value to this record because I don’t think anyone should bet on a favorite on a money line, but it’s helpful for survivor pools.
I kept track of how I well or poorly I picked teams’ games this year and I actually used these in my picks some weeks.
I won 10 or more times betting on the following teams’ games
New England (11-4-1)
NY Jets (12-4)
Buffalo (11-5)
San Diego (11-5)
Philadelphia (10-6)
Tampa Bay (10-4-2)
Atlanta (12-4)
Carolina (11-5)
Arizona (10-5-1)
I lost 10 or more times with the following teams
Jacksonville (4-12)
Dallas (6-10)
New Orleans (6-10)
Seattle (5-11)
I like that ratio. I will keep a more in depth list of this on my site next year (record betting on a team, record betting against a team, total record betting on a team’s games, total money made betting on a team’s games, total money made betting against a team, total money made betting on a team). Overall, I was pleased with how I did this season and I hope I made some people some money. I will continue to post playoff picks and playoff ATS picks, but the bulk of the handicapping is over for this season.
First a note on betting on the playoffs, if you bet on every game in a week with 4 games, you have a 6.25% chance of losing all of your money. Remember that and be sure that you can be comfortable laying that much on a single week. If you bet $4000 a week in the regular season, but aren’t comfortable with the 6.25% chance that you lose $4000, don’t bet $4000. If there’s only 2 games being played, you have a 25% chance of going broke and, obviously, in the Super Bowl, a 50% chance.
New Orleans Saints 26 Seattle Seahawks 20
Spread: New Orleans -10.5
Pick against spread: Seattle 5 units (+500)
The Seahawks are the worst team to ever make the playoffs and only made the playoffs because of where they are located. You can read more about it here. However, this spread still doesn’t make sense. Even terrible teams haven’t been double digit home underdogs this year. The Seattle Seahawks are the first team to be underdogs by 10+ at home all season.
This seems like a trap line, feeding off the public overreaction to the Seahawks making the playoffs. With roughly 80% of the public betting on New Orleans, this trap seems to be doing its job. Another prominent trap line was in Super Bowl 42. The Patriots were double digit favorites on a neutral field. That line prayed on the public’s belief that the New York Giants were the worst team to ever make the Super Bowl and that the Patriots were awesome and invincible. A lot of people lost a lot of money that day.
The way Vegas lines work in the NFL is that Vegas determines which team is the better team and by how many points. Then they give the road team 3 points. That means this line would be -16.5 in New Orleans, easily the highest line of the season. That doesn’t make any sense because this line was -11.5 when these two met in New Orleans week 11. Seattle only lost that one by 15, a mere 3.5 ATS loss. And that wasn’t like they didn’t have a shot. The Seahawks had 494 yards of total offense in that 34-19 loss, but two costly and poorly timed Marshawn Lynch fumbles doomed them.
Now the Saints are expected to go into Seattle and win by 11. That’s no easy task. Even with their 7-9 record, the Seahawks are 5-3 at home. The Saints may be 6-2 on the road, but let’s look at their road games that were played outside, rather than in a dome. They beat San Francisco by 3. They had a huge blowout over the Buccaneers, who weren’t great at the time. They had a huge blowout over the Panthers (who didn’t). They beat Cincinnati by 4 and they lost to Baltimore. There are drawbacks to playing in a dome at home. Teams with home domes tend to struggle outside on the road.
The Saints have to make a fairly long journey to Seattle and play in one of the loudest stadiums in the nation. The Seahawks are going to have the momentum in this one. They are coming off an energizing win over the Rams and now people (including myself) are saying they don’t belong in the playoffs. That’s got to be motivation for them in this home playoff game. The Saints, meanwhile, could easily overlook the Seahawks here. The Saints are also possibly without Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, Jeremy Shockey, and Jimmy Graham. If any of those 5 do play, they’ll be limited by injury. Drew Brees won’t have the weapons he normally does.
Finally, while the Seahawks are the worst team to ever make the playoffs, other bad teams have made the playoffs before. The 9-7 Arizona Cardinals in 1998 made the playoffs with a differential of -53. They ended up winning their road playoff game by 13 in Dallas, the franchise’s first since 1947. The 8-8 Rams made in it 2004 with a differential of -73. They ended up winning in Seattle by 7. In both cases, it could easily be argued that the bad playoff team was simply overlooked.
I don’t think the Seahawks will win this game, but I really like their chances to cover this spread. Also keep in mind that the Saints are 3-9 ATS as double digit favorites in the Sean Payton era. I’m making this a 5 unit selection. It will be dropped to 4 if Charlie Whitehurst starts for the Seahawks, but it’s looking like it’ll be Hasselbeck.
Indianapolis Colts 30 New York Jets 20
Spread: Indianapolis -2.5
Pick against spread: Indianapolis 2 units (-220)
This game is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. The Colts won that 30-17, for simple reasons. The Jets are a blitz and take away the opposing team’s top receiver team. Peyton Manning can pick apart defenses that blitz and he had so many options (Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Dallas Clark) that the Jets couldn’t stop just one. Wayne only had 55 yards, but Clark, Collie, and Garcon combined for 309 yards as the Colts offense totaled 461 yards of offense.
Things have changed since then. The Colts line is terrible this year, so while Manning can still pick apart a defense that blitzes, he’ll have slightly less time in the pocket to do so. The Jets have also added Antonio Cromartie so they have more than one good cornerback. Also, Austin Collie and Dallas Clark are out and Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne have been dropping passes all year.
Still, I like the Colts in this one. This Jets defense isn’t quite what it used to be. They gave up 38 points to a Bears a couple weeks ago and 45 to the Patriots. They can be scored on. Like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning can pick apart blitzes and Rex Ryan (as a coordinator or a coach) has only beaten Peyton Manning once and that was because Manning was benched mid 3rd quarter for rest purposes. If the Jets defense becomes picked apart, this really becomes a matchup between Peyton Manning -2.5 and Mark Sanchez in Indianapolis. Simply put, Sanchez would be screwed.
Manning might not have the weapons like he did last year, but he still has the mindset he did last year which is that his favorite target is the open one and that’s how you beat the Jets’ defense. You don’t play favorites with your receivers. Blair White and Jacob Tamme might not be Collie and Clark, but they can still get the job done. I like the Colts to win here at home and advance to the 2nd round against a fairly even spread.
Baltimore Ravens 21 Kansas City Chiefs 10
Spread: Baltimore -3
Pick against spread: Baltimore 4 units (+400)
I am kind of pissed off that the Chiefs were terrible last week. Not because I like this team or anything, but because I wanted to bet heavily against them. Their terrible loss to the Raiders last week has dropped this line to -3, meaning the Chiefs are field goal underdogs at home. I am still going to bet against the Chiefs, but not for 5 units as I would have if this were an even line.
The Chiefs have literally beaten up on, as Gordon Gee would say, little sisters of the poor all season. They’ve beaten one playoff team all year, the Seattle Seahawks, which doesn’t really count. The only +.500 team they beat was San Diego by 7, week 1, in a fluke game in which Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards. In that game, their 3 touchdowns came on a pick six, a punt return TD, and a long run. That fluke win is the reason why they’re in the playoffs. The Chargers avenged that loss with a 31-0 win later in the season.
The Chiefs have played 12 games against teams ranked 17th or worse against the run. This is significant because they are a run first offense. Baltimore has always been known as a run stuffing team, so much so that their 8th ranked run defense this year was mildly disappointing. However, when you look at their last few games, you see they’re really better than that. In their last 3, they have allowed opposing teams to rush for 219 yards on 70 carries, an average of 3.1 per carry. In their last 5, they have allowed 384 yards on 116 carries, an average of 3.3. Jamaal Charles and company could really be limited in this one.
Unable to run, this team will be able to be blitzed and as we saw against Oakland, who sacked Cassel 7 times, this offensive line can’t handle blitzes. Because of the spread, this is only a 4 unit pick, but I don’t like the Chiefs’ chances in this one. It would be 5, but we could see a push or a stupid backdoor cover to keep this one within 3. I don’t think Kansas City wins though. Teams that don’t rest starters and lose their week 17 by 17+ are 0-5 ATS the next week since 2002.
Green Bay Packers 31 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick (+110)
Spread: -2.5 Philadelphia
Pick against spread: Green Bay 3 units (+300)
Andy Reid says Michael Vick could be benched this week if he struggles to pick up blitzes like he did week 16 against Minnesota, when he took 6 sacks. I don’t think Vick gets benched, but it just shows how far this team has fallen in the past month or so. Vick isn’t playing like he did in November when he was on top of the world. In fact, aside from those 8 minutes against the reeling Giants, he didn’t have a great month at all.
Now he has to face the Green Bay Packers, arguably the most athletic defense in the league. Dom Capers has a very athletic defense at his disposal and he blitzes really well with them, as we saw last week against Chicago. Philadelphia’s offensive line is terrible, surrendering 50 sacks this season, tied for 2nd most behind Chicago. Vick will almost certainly be under pressure all game and he struggles under pressure. Not to mention, this back 7 has the athleticism to limit long gains on runs and can slow down the Eagles speedy receivers.
The Eagles defense isn’t playing too well either. Other than last week’s fluke performance against the Cowboys, the last time they gave up less than 24 was week 11. Even Joe Webb led his team to 24 against this defense.
While the Eagles are struggling, the Packers are playing well right now. Their +148 differential leads the NFC and they haven’t lost a game by more than 4 all season, not even against the Pats in Foxboro without Aaron Rodgers. They’ve won their last 2, and teams that win their last 2, yet are underdogs in the first round of the playoffs, are 6-3 ATS since 2002.
The Packers also beat the Eagles week 1. Teams that beat a team in the regular season are 16-8 straight up against that same team in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is also 7-4 ATS as an underdog. Oh and don’t forget, the Packers were my Super Bowl pick to start the year. I’m taking Kuhn and Friends for 3.
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