Power Rankings will be more detailed next week

The teams that are terrible 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-7

31. Carolina Panthers 1-6

30. Cleveland Browns 2-5

29. Dallas Cowboys 1-6

The teams that are not quite as terrible, but still pretty terrible 

28. San Francisco 49ers 2-6

27. Denver Broncos 2-6

26. Arizona Cardinals 3-4

25. Cincinnati Bengals 2-5

The team that should be a sleeper in 2011, but everyone will have them as their sleeper so much that they’ll actually become overrated

24. Detroit Lions 2-5

The teams that are in worse shape than their record would appear 

23. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-4

22. Chicago Bears 4-3

The teams that have surprised

21. Oakland Raiders 4-4

20. St. Louis Rams 4-4

The team that’s best in the NFC West, but only by default

19. Seattle Seahawks 4-3

The teams in massive chaos that could still make the playoffs because the NFC sucks 

18. Minnesota Vikings 2-5

17. Washington Redskins 4-4

 

The teams that are in the middle of the pack 

16. Miami Dolphins 4-3

15. Houston Texans 4-3

The teams that haven’t beaten anyone, but have amazing records 

14. Kansas City Chiefs 5-2

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-2

The team poised for a 2nd half run 

12. San Diego Chargers 3-5

The team that’s overrated, but will still make the playoffs because the NFC sucks 

11. Philadelphia Eagles 4-3

The team that just signed Randy Moss 

10. Tennessee Titans 5-3

The teams that can beat anyone on any given Sunday, but often don’t 

9. New York Giants 5-2

8. Baltimore Ravens 5-2

7. New Orleans Saints 5-3

6. Green Bay Packers 4-3

The teams that are great, but not elite 

5. New York Jets 5-2

4. Atlanta Falcons 5-2

The elite runner ups 

3. Indianapolis Colts 5-2

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2

The favorite 

1. New England Patriots 6-1

 

RB LeGarrette Blount- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.5%

For the 2^nd straight week, Blount was Tampa’s lead back. He rushed for 120 yards on 22 carries and 2 scores and actually added 2 catches, something he was notoriously bad at in college.

WR Davone Bess- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 30.0%

Bess has 39 catches for 401 yards and 3 scores this season and this week was his first as a starter. He certainly didn’t do anything to lose him his starting job, catching 7 balls for 53 yards. He’s a starter in PPR leagues and should be owned universally.

QB Josh Freeman- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 25.7%

Freeman is looking like a legit QB1 this season or at least a strong backup. In 7 games, he’s 135 for 224 for 1533 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 3 picks. He should be owned pretty universally.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 29.2%

I’m buying the hype. This kid looks like the real deal. He was 26 for 45 for 212 yards and 4 scores to only 1 pick in his first week back. He’s still not a regular starter until he shows consistency, but he’s an excellent backup with huge upside for the rest of the season.

 

TE Jacob Tamme- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.2%

After Dallas Clark went down, everyone’s question was, which Indy tight end would Peyton Manning turn into a fantasy monster. That question was answered, Jacob Tamme, who caught 6 balls for 64 yards and a touchdown in the Colts first game since they put Clark on IR.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.1%

He didn’t lead the team in yards this week, but he did get his first career touchdown, a good sign. In 7 games with David Garrard (excluding that Todd Bouman game) he has 33 catches for 387 yards and a score. He’s more valuable in PPR, but he’s still worth a look in deep regular leagues.

RB Mike Hart- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.4%

Hart rushed for 84 yards on 12 carries splitting carries with Donald Brown. Joseph Addai could miss a few more weeks, which means Hart could be the starter over the inept Donald Brown, who didn’t even manage 2 yards per carry this week.

WR Nate Burleson- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 27.4%

He and Stafford clicked as he caught 7 balls for 47 yards. Even with Shaun Hill in the lineup, weeks 5-6, he caught 10 passes for 116 yards in 2 games. He’s worth a look as Detroit’s #2 receiver.

WR Anthony Armstrong- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.1%

The undrafted 27 yard rookie continues to be worth a look in deep leagues with 14 catches for 321 yards and a score in his last 5 weeks, including 3 catches for 92 yards this week against Detroit.

WR Anthony Gonzalez- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.0%

Gonzalez played his first full game since 2008 and caught 4 balls for 55 yards as the Colts’ slot receiver. Austin Collie is out for a few weeks so Gonzalez is going to be their #3 receiver for a few weeks. He could have some PPR value for a few weeks.

 

 

Last week overall: 8-5

Last week ATS: 8-5 (+170/+5%)

Overall picks: 73-44 (.624)

ATS Picks: 60-53-4 (+$1270)

Lock picks: 6-2

Upset picks: 13-14

Sports Betting FAQ 

Atlanta Falcons 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Spread: -9 Atlanta

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 1 unit 

Tampa Bay may have 5 wins, but none of them have come against a team with a winning record. Their combined record of the teams they’ve beaten, 12-25, 5-17 if you don’t count Arizona and St. Louis. The reason for not counting them, those wins were by a combined 4 points, could have gone either way, and plus St. Louis and Arizona have such a weak schedule that their records are thrown off as well. Their two losses were to winning teams, by a combined 50 points. Atlanta is a good team. However, that spread if huge. 9 points between two 5-2 teams. Tampa Bay isn’t some mediocre team. They’re an average at worst team. Josh Freeman and this passing game have the ability to tear apart this Atlanta secondary, they’re just very one-dimensional, lacking even an average defense, and yet without an established runner (Blount is emerging though). I think Tampa can keep this within a touchdown and score a late touchdown in a high scoring affair to win it ATS, but Atlanta’s clearly the better team, and clearly going to win (especially at home where Matt Ryan has lost one career regular season game in 3 years), so I’m not putting too much on Tampa ATS.

Chicago Bears 24 Buffalo Bills 16

Spread: -2.5 Chicago

Pick against spread: Chicago 2 units 

I don’t want to bet on either of these two teams. Buffalo is 0-7 and Chicago could be 0-7 if a few things didn’t go their way (they’re 4-3). 3 of their wins have come against teams with 4 combined wins and the other came because of 18 penalties against. Jay Cutler’s on a 3 game losing streak, during which he is 51 for 90 for 1 touchdown and 5 picks and has been sacked 19 times and suffered a concussion. Chicago should be able to tear apart Buffalo’s defense, because they can establish the run on Buffalo’s terrible run defense and because Buffalo can’t bring pressure with the pass rush, however, Mike Martz refuses to run and their line is so bad that Carolina got consistent pressure on them. I’m picking the Bears because they should win (aided by an elite defense), but this could be ugly and Buffalo could win their first game of the season here so I’m not putting a lot on it.

New England Patriots 31 Cleveland Browns 16

Spread: -4.5 New England

Pick against spread: New England 4 units 

The 6-1 Patriots are only 5 point favorites over the Browns? What? This spread is ridiculous and could also be available for only a limited time. The Patriots could very well have Randy Moss back by the end of the week, which could make the spread 6-8 points. Even if they don’t, they can destroy Cleveland. Cleveland’s pass defense is nowhere near as good as the three they’ve faced without Moss (Baltimore, San Diego, Minnesota) so they can destroy them with the short gain and won’t even need the deep threat. Cleveland beat New Orleans going into their bye, which could explain to spread, but they couldn’t do that again if they tried. They needed several trick plays and pick sixes to do it. I’m still not sold on Colt McCoy as a good quarterback, as the kind who can keep up with a Tom Brady, against an improving New England defense. Say what you want about their D, it is improving and it is complex and forces turnovers. McCoy should have a few as a rookie this week.

New York Jets 23 Detroit Lions 13

Spread: -4 Jets

Pick against spread: Jets 3 units

Detroit should be able to keep this close based on the way they played last week. However, Matt Stafford has still only has 3 wins in his career, and they were against Cleveland and Washington twice. Cleveland in 2009 and Washington in 2010 were among the worst pass defenses in the league. Even with a strong pass rush helping him, I doubt Stafford can play well enough for this team to beat one of the elite defenses in the league. The Jets offensive line is also so good that they might be able to nullify the Lions pass rush, especially considering they’ll be motivated to prove themselves after getting shutout last week. Teams normally do well against the spread after being shut out and the Jets offensive front has only given up 11 sacks in 7 games.

New Orleans Saints 28 Carolina Panthers 16

Spread: -6.5 New Orleans

Pick against spread: New Orleans 2 units 

The Saints almost lost to the Panthers last time they played and they lost ATS by double digits. However, this looks like a different Saints team after they just beat the Steelers. Of course I said the same thing about them after they beat the Buccaneers and they followed that by a stink bomb at home against the Browns, but beating the Steelers by 10 is impressive and the spread in this one isn’t nearly as crazy as the two touchdown one from when these two met before. I find it hard to believe, if the Saints play well, the Panthers stay within a touchdown of them, but they have before so I’m not putting a ton on it.

 

San Diego Chargers 37 Houston Texans 19

Spread: -2.5 San Diego

Pick against spread: San Diego 5 units 

In each of the last 3 years, the Chargers have started out slow, playing well, but killing themselves with stupid mistakes. Then they’ve had a defining win and gone on a long streak, 11-2 in 2007, 4-0 in 2008, 11-0 in 2009. Once is a luck, two times is a coincidence, three times a trend, and I’m sticking with it. The first two parts of the trend happened this year. They started out 2-5 and looked great against Tennessee last week in a win. I expect them to go on a streak now, continuing with this week against Houston. Houston’s pass defense is horrible and Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I expect the Chargers to dominate like they can this week and win this one easily, especially since Houston’s Andre Johnson’s won’t be 100%. The last time he wasn’t 100%, they were destroyed by the Giants.

Baltimore Ravens 21 Miami Dolphins 19

Spread: -5 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Miami 2 units 

Well, we know the Dolphins have a good kicker. In their last 2 games, Dan Carpenter is 10 for 10 on field goals. They only have 2 offensive touchdowns in those two games, but they sure can kick. However, they do play teams close. They could have beaten the Jets and Steelers, but lost, and special teams mistakes killed them against New England. Coincidentally, those are the top 3 teams in the AFC. Baltimore’s the better team and should win, but they always do seem to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties. They’ve had four wins decided by less than a touchdown and in 3 of them they lost ATS as favorites. We’ve got a team that barely beats teams they should beat by more against a team that barely loses to teams they should lose to by more and a 5 point spread, I’m going underdog.

Minnesota Vikings 28 Arizona Cardinals 18

Spread: -9.5 Minnesota  

Pick against spread: Minnesota 1 unit 

This spread seems like a little much considering how bad the Vikings have been playing lately. Plus, cutting Randy Moss has made a huge distraction in the locker room. However, I’m still taking the Vikings. The Cardinals are that bad, especially on the road, where they’ve won by 4, lost by 38, lost by 31, and lost by 12 this season. I’m not putting very much on it though because the spread is ridiculously huge.

New York Giants 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Spread: -7.5 Giants

Pick against spread: Seahawks 1 unit

The Seahawks are an amazing home team. In the past 3+ years, they are 16-11 at home. That might not sound like that good, but compared to 7-21 on the road, it’s pretty good. However, I’m picking against them even as underdogs of 6.5 points. The Seahawks will be without Russell Okung again. The Raiders had 8 sacks last week against Seattle sans Okung. They had 16 in their previous 7 games. The Giants have one of the best pass rushes in the league and have injured 5 quarterbacks this year. Hasselbeck really struggles under pressure. He’s immobile and injury prone. He went 13 for 32 last week against Oakland. He won’t have the benefit of a good run game to lean on this week either. The Giants haven’t allowed a 50 yard rusher since week 3 and rank 3^rd in the league in YPC against. If Eli and the Giants can avoid making turnovers (they’re 3^rd in the league in most giveaways this season), something that could be an issue in noisy Seattle, they can win this pretty easily. The only reason this is a 2 unit is because of the turnovers.

Update: Charlie Whitehurst will start for an injured Matt Hasselbeck. Whitehurst is a mobile quarterback which could easily negate the Giants pass rush, thus making him more likely to win this game than Hasselbeck. However, he’s unproven and a wildcard and by unproven I mean he’s never thrown a pass in the NFL. I’m not going to bet heavily on someone unproven like that against a good team. However, the spread is now 7.5 points. The Seahawks are an amazing home team and always seem to cover at home. They’ll be playing 110+% at home with their starting quarterback out and I think that’ll be enough to get a cover against a Giants team that is notoriously bad with turnovers.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Oakland 9 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Oakland

Pick against spread: Kansas City 2 units 

When was the last time the Raiders and Chiefs played a meaningful game as #1 and #2 in the division? I happened to thing both of these teams are overrated, but the Chiefs more so. However, I’m going with the Chiefs as underdogs to win straight up. The Raiders have a way of disappointing right when they start playing well. That could happen this week. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones also should run all over the Raiders 31^st ranked run defense, meaning Cassel won’t have to do much for the billionth week in a row. That should be the only source of offense for either team in this game as both teams have better pass defenses than quarterbacks. The Raiders have the better quarterback, but he’s been terribly inconsistent this season and he’s missing his top 2 receivers.

Indianapolis Colts 41 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick, Lock Pick

Spread: -3 Philadelphia

Pick against spread: Indianapolis 6 units 

For the second straight week, my lock pick is also an upset pick. The only reason I didn’t make my upset/lock pick a 6 uniter last week was because it was a 2-5 team. Good thing I didn’t, as the Broncos couldn’t do anything in the red zone and lost. I feel a lot more confident putting 6 on the Colts and Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning has lost 3 times as an underdog in his career in games he’s finished. Granted, he’s rarely on underdog, but that’s very few times. 2 were against the Patriots in their heyday. The Eagles aren’t the Patriots in their heyday and the Colts are still the Colts in their heyday, even with all the injuries. Peyton Manning has owned the Eagles, scoring 35+ in all 3 games he’s ever played against them. Considering the Eagles are ranked 15^th against the pass (despite playing Alex Smith, David Garrard, and Shaun Hill in 3 games), that could happen again. That 15^th rank would also be a lot worse if they couldn’t get to the quarterback, something they’ve done 21 times this season. Peyton Manning has been sacked a league low 7 times this season, so that pass rush should be a not factor allowing Manning to destroy Philly’s secondary. Michael Vick won’t be able to pass to keep up. His two wins this season were against Detroit and Jacksonville. Indy’s 7^th ranked secondary is much better than those two. He’ll be able to run and his ability to run will allowed LeSean McCoy to tear up this weak Indy ground defense, but you don’t beat Peyton Manning against a bad pass defense by running. You have to pass to win that type of game. And even if the Eagles somehow win, I get 3 points wiggle room.

Green Bay Packers 33 Dallas Cowboys 26

Spread: -9 Green Bay 

Pick against spread: Dallas 1 unit

This is a game the Cowboys can actually win. The Cowboys looked horrible last week and the Packers are coming off the biggest win of their season so they won’t be taking them seriously. This is still a talented team and Kitna is at least a decent quarterback. He threw 4 picks last week, but three were on dropped passes and he completed a high percentage of his passes, even against a large deficit. However, the Cowboys might try even less. They looked dead last week and after playing essentially being eliminated the week before after such high hopes, you can’t blame them. I’m not confident either way here, but I’m taking the Cowboys barely as they are given a big amount of points.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 12

Spread: -4.5 Pittburgh

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 3 units

The Bengals offense, regardless of what the numbers say, is not good at all. They may be middle of the pack in terms of points, but they’ve been playing a lot of catch up this season and scored a lot of points in garbage time. Also, for some reason, Carson Palmer has gotten very lucky this season. Defenders are dropping so many of his picks. He should have thrown at least 3 if not four against Miami and that’s been the case all season. Pittsburgh is great at creating turnovers and should create plenty this week. Pittsburgh will also neutralize Cedric Benson, the Bengals best offensive player. The Steelers have the league’s best run defense. Benson being unable to run will put more pressure on Palmer and that’s going to lead to picks. The only reason this is a 3 unit and not a 5 is because Cincinnati did win both matchups last season somehow. It’s pretty obvious now that last year’s squad was a fluke and Pittsburgh also is significantly better this year, but that still does scare me a bit. 

 

WR Steve Breaston- Arizona

Expected to play throw a knee injury again. Opposing defenses are still keying in on Larry Fitzgerald allowing Breaston to have easy coverage. He caught 8 balls for 147 yards and a score last week, but Minnesota’s defense is better than Tampa Bay’s so he might not be as lucky this week. He’s still a solid WR3.

RB DeAngelo Williams- Carolina

Out. Jonathan Stewart is worth another start despite the fact that he could only manage 30 yards on 14 carries last week against St. Louis. New Orleans can’t stop the run and Stewart does have talent.

RB Felix Jones- Dallas

Missed practice Wednesday, but will still play this week. He’s taken over the lead back role in Dallas.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

He’s got a foot injury, but will play. I’m being the hype with him, but he’s still a very risky start against a defense like the Jets’ that made Aaron Rodgers look bad last week.

WR Calvin Johnson- Detroit

Listed as probable with a shoulder injury and will play.

WR Donald Driver- Green Bay

Out. Driver hasn’t caught a ball in his last 2 games and the Packers probably felt their offense would be better without him until he’s fully healthy.

QB Aaron Rodgers- Green Bay

Expected to play through an ankle injury.

TE Owen Daniels- Houston

Daniels is a game time decision. He hasn’t practiced this week, but Gary Kubiak is still optimistic that he’ll be able to play. I can’t guarantee you he’ll play the whole game and with just one game of 50+ yards this season, I’d say look at other options.

WR Andre Johnson- Houston

He’ll play through an ankle injury, but he’s obviously nowhere near 100%. Then again he wasn’t anywhere near 100% week 5 when he caught 5 balls for 95 yards through an ankle injury.

WR Anthony Gonzalez- Indianapolis

Placed on IR. This is just getting pathetic.

RB Mike Hart- Indianapolis

RB Joseph Addai- Indianapolis

Both are expected to miss this week’s game, which means that Donald Brown and Javarris James will split carries this week. Brown is not a horrible fantasy play this week, but is only averaging 3.0 yards per carry and playing with a hamstring injury, so keep that in mind.

 

WR Bernard Berrian- Minnesota

He will play even through a groin injury limited him Friday. Don’t get too excited though. He hasn’t caught more than 2 balls in a game this season, so he’s not a great fantasy play, even with Percy Harvin potentially out.

WR Percy Harvin- Minnesota

He was described as very limited through an ankle injury as recently as Friday, but remains a game time decision for a 1 o’clock start time. Have an alternative ready, but considering him went for 100+ yards last week after injuring himself, I expect him to play and produce well.

QB Brett Favre- Minnesota

He’ll play, but will he play well is the question? Arizona is poor against the pass and this game is to save his season. He played well last week before getting hurt, so I actually would start him this week if necessary.

RB Fred Taylor- New England

Out.

WR Deion Branch- New England

He says he’ll play, but even if he does, he’s very limited by his hamstring, so I wouldn’t start him.

RB Pierre Thomas- New Orleans

Out.

RB Reggie Bush- New Orleans

Likely out. He’s practiced some this week, but there’s really no need for the Saints to force him out there at less than 100% against Carolina before the Saints’ bye week.

WR Marques Colston- New Orleans

He’ll play and remains the Saints’ most consistent fantasy option.

QB Drew Brees- New Orleans

Reports that he has a torn meniscus seem greatly exaggerated. He’ll play.

TE Zach Miller- Oakland

He’s listed as doubtful after missing practice all week. Translation, he’s not going to play.

WR DeSean Jackson- Philadelphia

Expected to play barring any major setbacks with his concussion.

QB Michael Vick- Philadelphia

Vick will start over Kevin Kolb this week.

TE Antonio Gates- San Diego

He’s listed as doubtful, but he’s calling himself a game time decision. He’s proved himself to be one of the toughest players in the league, so I would check his status tomorrow morning before benching him, despite that doubtful tag.

WR Malcom Floyd- San Diego

Also listed as doubtful and unlike Gates, he’s not expected to play at all.

WR Legedu Naanee- San Diego

Out.

QB Matt Hasselbeck- Seattle

Out.

WR Mike Williams- Seattle

It looked bad earlier in the week, but he was upgraded for questionable to probable and will start vs. the Giants.

TE Kellen Winslow- Tampa Bay

He’ll play through his knee injury again. Start him as you normally would.

 

 

WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.3%

With Hines Ward out, Antonio Brown had 9 catches for 67 yards and 1 touchdown to bring his season totals to 34 catches for 441 yards and that score in 8 games. Ward might be back next week, but Brown has been producing even with Ward in the lineup this season. Plus, Brown is obviously more talented than Ware at this stage in his career so Brown might play more snaps at Ward’s expense even if Ward returns.

RB Javon Ringer (Tennessee)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.2%

Whatever Chris Johnson was doing during his holdout, it wasn’t playing football. Johnson has rushed for 302 yards on 107 carries this season. Instead of having his Twitter followers pray for him to get a new contract, maybe he should have had his Twitter followers pray for him to not suck ass. Anyway, Tennessee seems to be getting tired of Johnson’s suckiness. Ringer got 14 carries to Johnson’s 14 against Indianapolis, including the majority of the 4^th quarter carries. Johnson rushed for 33 yards and Ringer for 60. Tennessee doesn’t have the best offensive line, but Ringer looked solid against Indianapolis and he played well in the preseason so maybe he’s the lead back going forward. There’s at least upside here.

 

QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 13.5%

In his two starts, Ponder has 455 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 picks. He’s still a rookie so one would assume he’d get better. He’s got some upside as a QB2.

RB Chris Ogbonnaya (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

Yeah, it’s a thin week for pickups. Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty were both hurt against San Francisco so some guy named Chris Ogbonnaya rushed for 37 yards on 11 carries and caught 5 passes for 24 yards. If Hillis and Hardesty don’t play next week, Ogbonnaya figures to be the lead back again against a much easier run defense than San Francisco’s.

 

 

Week 9 Pickups

Why are these guys still on your roster? 

Week 9 Injury Report 

 

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers (6)  –  7 – 0   next bye

What a game this was. At the start of the game, we thought it would be a blowout but Vikings were more than ready to battle their NFC North rival. But once again, Packers proved why they are the favorite to win. They stayed resilient and ended the game with a win.

(5)  2. New Orleans Saints  5 – 2   next at St. Louis Rams

These Saints are not merciful. The Saints can score on anybody. They have another cupcake this week against the Rams.  This can give them an opportunity to seperate themselves from the rest of the division.

(2)  3. New England Patriots (1)  5 – 1   next at Pittsburgh Steelers

This game against the Steelers might decide how this season plays out. If the defense can stop the Steelers offense, it will gain necessary confidence to go against any other team in the league. Offense will do enough to win the game; it is up to the defense to step up.

(4)  4. San Fransisco 49ers  5 – 1   next vs Cleveland Browns

Bye week helped a lot of players heal up.  Cleveland, Washington, Arizona, and New York Giants are the next four……They could be 9-1 a month from now…. 

(10)  5. Pittsburgh Steelers  5 – 2   next vs New England Patriots

Patriots vs. Steelers are just a great match up. Sure Steelers are not what they used to be but this is still an elite team that is capable of winning against any team in the league. Atmosphere in the Heinz field will be amazing since Pittsburgh fans are as passionate as any other fans in the nation. After games against Patriots and Ravens, Steelers have very easy schedule until the end of the season.

(3)  6. Baltimore Ravens  4 – 2   next vs Arizona Cardinals

That was a dreadful game, absolutely dreadful, we cannot describe how dreadful….Better get your act together against Arizona this week before your match up next week against Pittsburgh.  A team that is looking to return the favor and embarrass you.

(6)  7. Detroit Lions  5 – 2   next at Denver Broncos

 2 losses in a row now, and Suh is really starting to look the the dirty player a select few people were calling him.  If Stafford is healthy enough to play, it is a good chance for Detroit to bounce back and get a win and some confidence.  If Stafford sits out, it will be a long and tough Sunday afternoon.

 

(7)  8. San Diego Chargers  4 – 2   next at Kansas City Chiefs

We thought the Chargers had finally become an elite team but they were just pretenders. Sure Jets have talent to be considered as an elite team but they have been struggling badly. Chargers should not have any problem winning the AFC West but they will fall short once again. Perhaps Chargers would have won two Super Bowls had they hired Rex Ryan as the head coach.

(11)  9. New York Giants  4 – 2   next vs Miami Dolphins

Giants have suffered a lot thanks to injuries but this team has overcame somewhat. With NFC east all but settled, Giants have a chance to win the division. Also they still have a great pass-rush, which is becoming ever more important thanks to the transformation of NFL to passing league.

(14)  10. New York Jets  4 – 3   next bye

Comeback win vs Chargers was huge, but 2 gigantor division match ups await. Next week versus the Bills, and the following week…..Against some guy named Tom Brady.  This will give Rex Ryan a chance to evaluate whether or not they truly are Super Bowl ready.

(NR)  11. Atlanta Falcons  4 – 3   next bye

Miracle that Matt Ryan isn’t out for the season.  Winning in Detroit is a pretty big deal.  Atlanta gets a well needed week off, gives Matt Ryan a chance to ice his ankle and stay off it for an extra week.  Come out of the bye and play Indianapolis, couldn’t ask for an easier two weeks.

(NR)  12. Houston Texans  4 – 3   next vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Huge measuring stick game against the Titans and they whipped Tennessee.  The Texans did this without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, and with two easy match ups then one more til the bye, this schedule sets up nicely for Kubiak, who finally might have a shot at the playoffs this year.

(8)  13. Buffalo Bills  4 – 2   next vs Washington Redskins

Should get the W this week coming off a bye and hosting the falling Redskins. Buffalo needs to pick up as many Ws as they can to ensure that there is not a New England and New York take over again in that division.  Fat chance of them stopping that though!!!

(13)  14. Dallas Cowboys  3 – 3   next at Philadelphia Eagles

 Felix Jones who?  DeMarco Murray is in town, and nobody is happier then Tony Romo…  It’s all you, DeMarco Murray.  With Murray helping to take some pressure off Romo, will Romo calm down, throw smarter passes, and not blow leads???  Don’t count on it!

(15)  15.  Cincinnati Bengals  4 – 2   next at Seattle Seahawks

Will Cincy cool off after the bye?  They play Seattle this week, if the Browns can beat them, the Bengals should roll into town, get the W, and build some more confidence in their young team.  Lets see how long they can keep pace with the Steelers.

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Nolan Vasan of NFL Draft Geek

Ryan Mc Crystal of Draft Ace

Brian Goldsmith of Hair of the Dog Sports Blog

 Clayton Terry of The Fan Experience

David Gallagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Each week we will be contacting more bloggers to ensure the most accurate and biggest power ranking system available.   Check out all these great blog sites, they are the best in the NFL.

 

 

10/15/11 12 PM ET (ESPN3 Replay)

Louisville at Cincinnati

RB Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati) #23

The senior running back rushed for 1029 yards and 6 touchdowns on 157 carries in 2010 and currently projects as a mid round pick in 2012. He’s a decent pass catcher with 26 catches in 2010, but he plays out of a weird scheme and doesn’t have great size at 5-10 200. He doesn’t have the breakaway speed to make up for it so he seems destined for day 3, but he is moving up with 473 yards and 7 scores on 72 carries, with 8 catches for 54 yards and another score.

DT Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati) #95

Wolfe started the season as a borderline day 2/day 3 prospect with 8 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss in the past 2 years. He is moving up boards right now with 4 sacks and 7 tackles for loss already this season through 5 games. The 6-5 295 defensive tackle would fit best as a 3-4 defensive end, but he could also stay in a 4-3 as an under tackle at the next level.

10/15/11 10 PM ET (ESPN3 Replay)

Utah State at Fresno State

OLB Bobby Wagner (Utah State) #9

The 2011 preseason WAC defensive player of the year, Wagner had 246 tackles from 2009-2010. He’s a bit undersized at 6-1 230, but projects as a nice depth linebacker and special teamer at the next level. He’ll have a chance to prove he can be more than that. He started the season well with 10 tackles and a sack against Auburn. Through 5 games, he has 61 tackles, 2.5 for loss, a sack and a pick. He’s moving up draft boards a bit, but still projects as a day 3 guy.

DT Logan Harrell (Fresno State) #77

Harrell is one of the leaders in tackles for loss in Division 1 with 10 this season, coming off of a strong game against Boise State, one of his few chances to prove himself against an elite team. He has 41 tackles and 3.5 sacks on the season, but at 6-2 275 he won’t be able to play defensive tackle at the next level. It’s unclear if he projects well to 3-4 defensive end or 4-3 defensive end at that size either and he doesn’t possess a great 40 time. Combine that with his level of competition and he will probably get buried in day 3.

 

10/8/11 7 PM ET (ESPN3 replay)

Vanderbilt at Alabama

CB Casey Hayward (Vanderbilt) #19

When last I saw Casey Hayward, he was doing an admirable job on Alshon Jeffery against South Carolina. He limited Jeffery, a potential top 10 pick, to 2 catches, though poor quarterback play by South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia had a lot to do with that as well. He also had 2 picks in that game, though again, that has a lot to do with Garcia. Alabama’s passing attack is a little better so this should be a better test for Hayward, who has 12 career interceptions and is gaining some buzz as a potential late first round pick.

MLB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) #30

Hightower is finally healthy and putting it all together. The big 6-4 260 pound linebacker has 29 tackles through 5 games in the middle of Alabama’s 3-4 defense and could end up a first round pick if he keeps this up and continues to prove his health. He was a popular name as a potential first rounder before his injuries, taking over for Rolando McClain inside for Alabama and now that he’s healthy again, he’s starting to get mocked in that range again.

ESPN3 Replays

9/24/11 3:30 PM ET

Clemson at Florida State

DE Brandon Jenkins (Florida State) #49

Jenkins burst onto the scene with 13.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss last season and has bulked up to 6-3 265 for the 2011 season, in an effort to remain a 4-3 player as he heads to the NFL after this season. Jenkins will need to pick up it if he wants to remain a first rounder. He hds just 1 sack and 3 tackles for loss in his first 3 this year heading into this game

OT Andrew Datko (Florida State) #67

After Matt Kalil, Jonathan Martin, and Riley Reiff, this is a very thin offensive tackle class. For this reason, the athletic 320 pound Datko has a good chance to move into the mid-to-late first round range and go to a tackle needy team. He plays on Florida State’s left side and is a question mark for the rest of the season after shoulder surgery so I’m watching him in this replay.

10/22 7:15 PM ET

Alabama at Tennessee

DT Josh Chapman (Alabama) #99

Josh Chapman doesn’t make a huge impact on the stat sheet with 11 tackles and 1.5 tackles for a loss on the season, but the 6-1 310 nose tackle is great at tying up blockers and making things happen for the linebacker behind him in Alabama’s 3-4 defense. He’s gaining some steam as a potential 2^nd or even late 1^st rounder.

WR Marquis Maze (Alabama) #4

Alabama’s #2 receiver last year after Julio Jones, Maze caught 38 passes for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2010. As the #1 guy now as a senior, he has 34 catches for 376 yards and a score in 7 games. He’s also got value as a punt returner, averaging 10 yards per return this year. He’s also scored on special teams. The 5-10 180 receiver looks like a late rounder overall.

10/22 8 PM ET

Wisconsin at Michigan State

RB Montee Ball (Wisconsin) #28

Montee Ball has 18 touchdowns on the year, 16 rushing, 1 receiving, and 1 passing on a trick player. He’s also rushed for 653 yards on 107 carries, after rushing for 996 yards and 18 scores on 163 carries last year. He also has caught 7 passes for 166 yards and a score after 16 catches for 128 yards last year. After John Clay went down with an injury last year, Ball rushed for 777 yards and 16 scores on 114 carries in 5 games. He’s 5-11 215 and runs more powerful than his size and he’s got decent speed to boot. I’m really looking forward to him going against Michigan State’s awesome defensive line, which features the top defensive tackle prospect in this draft class, Jerel Worthy.

WR BJ Cunningham (Michigan State) #3

The senior receiver for Michigan State is having a huge year with 42 catches for 621 yards and 2 scores in 6 games, after being fairly non-productive in 2010 with 50 catches for 611 yards and 9 touchdowns. The 6-2 215 pound receiver is moving up boards fast and could end up in day 2 if he keeps this up.

10/22 3:30 PM ET

Texas A&M at Iowa State

OT Kelechi Osemele (Iowa State) #72

Moving from guard to left tackle, Osemele has played well, but probably belongs at right tackle or guard at the next level. The big 6-5 345 offensive lineman obviously is better against the run than the past and belongs in a power blocking scheme, but he has held his own as a left tackle against the opponent’s best pass rusher this season in the Big 12. He’ll be tested this week by Texas A&M’s Sean Porter, a speedy rusher with 7.5 sacks on the season, leading the nation.

RB Cyrus Gray (Texas A&M) #32

Cyrus Gray was the 2^nd string running back to Christine Michael in 2009, rushing for 757 yards and 5 scores on 159 carries, with 28 catches for 221 yards and 2 scores. However, when Michael got hurt in 2010, Gray took over as the lead back and rushed for 1133 yards and 12 touchdowns on 200 carries with 34 catches for 251 yards and 1 touchdown. However, Michael is back this year and running better than him so the senior Gray has not seen the field as much, rushing for 521 yards and 7 touchdowns on 113 carries with 13 catches for 112 yards and a score. Obviously, he’s slipping from the potential day 2 prospect he was going into this season.

10/22 12 PM ET

North Carolina at Clemson

DT Brandon Thompson (Clemson) #98

Not a big stat guy, but a stud against the run at 6-2 310 and frequently takes on multiple blockers, playing a 2 gap 4-3 nose tackle type position, freeing things up for Clemson’s Andre Branch, an elite pass rusher. He did the same thing for Da’Quan Bowers last year. This year, Thompson has 27 tackles, 3.5 for loss, and .5 sacks.

TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson) #83

Allen could be the first tight end off the board in this weak tight end class. He has 27 catches for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns in 6 games this season and has been on fire in his past 5, with 29 catches for 312 yards and 3 scores in his past 4, all against tough competition, Auburn, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. His suspect blocking could hurt his stock, but the 6-4 255 tight end has the size to become a better blocker. He’s also got great speed and great hands and is 2^nd on the team behind stud freshman wide receiver Sammy Watkins in receiving yards. 

 

 

 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-6

In Ryan Fitzpatrick’s last 5 starts, he is 97 for 153 for 1124 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 4 picks. That production has many Bills fans saying that they’ve found their quarterback of the future and that they don’t need to draft a quarterback with the first overall pick and instead should focus on defense. The those people I say, how many games of those has Fitzpatrick won? Yeah, I thought so. 1, a 30-7 win week 17 last season against the Peyton Manning less Indianapolis Colts. Stats are nice, but wins are nicer. Fitzpatrick doesn’t have the arm strength to lead consistent touchdown drives. They need a quarterback who does. The Chiefs had a quarterback named Tyler Thigpen in 2008. Thigpen was 230 for 420 for 2608 yards 17 scores and 12 picks. His offensive coordinator was Chan Gailey, the Bills coach now. His stats looked nice. However, the Chiefs went 2-14 that year. Gailey is good at inflating quarterbacks stats with short throws, without having them do a lot to sustain drives and score points. In fact, you could say it’s his specialty.

31. San Francisco 49ers 1-6

Remember when 49ers were calling for David Carr to start at quarterback. Whoops. The 49ers were beating ther previously 0-6 Panthers before Alex Smith got hurt and David Carr threw a game losing pick six. It’s pretty obvious that the answer at quarterback is not on this roster, unless Troy Smith has something, but that’s a long shot (one they should still test out though). They need to draft a quarterback this draft. Mike Singletary didn’t draft Alex Smith so he should have no loyalty to him, assuming he still has a job, which I hope he does. It’s not his fault his quarterbacks suck. Plus, he’s intimidating and goes on great rants. That’s half of what being a coach is all about.

30. Carolina Panthers 1-5

The Panthers offensive explosion last week was a result of the fact that San Francisco can’t stop anyone through the air, not the fact that their offense is all that much better with Matt Moore over Jimmy Clausen. Moore threw for 308 yards, 125 to David Gettis, 91 to Brandon LaFell, and 50 to Steve Smith. However, Matt Cassel threw for 250 yards as well against San Fran and their defense is in the bottom 3rd in the league in almost every major pass defense stat. When they play St. Louis next week, they should have a tougher time moving the ball through the air.

29. Cleveland Browns 2-5

In 2008, the Browns beat the Giants, the defending Super Bowl champs. In 2009, the Browns beat the Steelers (splitting the season series), the defending Super Bowl champs. Now they’ve knocked off the Saints, the defending Super Bowl champs. In the last 3 years, the Browns are 3-1 against defending Super Bowl champs, and 8-25 against everyone else. Oh and the jury’s still out on Colt McCoy, who only had to attempt 16 throws against the Saints last week, thanks to 4 interceptions by Drew Brees, two of which were returned for pick sixes by David Bowens. The Browns also brought trick plays, running for 68 yards with their punter (it was a sight to see). Peyton Hillis also threw a 13 yard pass to Colt McCoy. Yes, former fullback Peyton Hillis.

28. Detroit Lions 1-5

Bye week

27. Arizona Cardinals 3-3

I told you the Cardinals beat the Saints in spite of Max Hall. Last week, they lost to Seattle because of Max Hall. Hall was benched mid game for Derek Anderson. That sadly was the right move. You can’t go 4 for 16, especially against a defense like the Seahawks, and expect to keep your job. Anderson was better, but not much, 8 for 17 for 96 yards. It’s safe to say the answer at quarterback is not on this roster, unless they start the extremely raw John Skelton and he plays well, a very long shot.

26. Dallas Cowboys 1-5

The Cowboys are now 3.5 games back of the Giants for first place in the division, at 1-5, having lost the tiebreaker. They also could be without their starting quarterback for the rest of the season, and at least 6 weeks, more likely 8-10, meaning 8-10 weeks of Jon Kitna. That’s what we call up shit creek without a paddle.

25. Oakland Raiders 3-4

The Raiders scored 59 points last week. I’ll bet anyone 50 dollars they lose this week. They always disappoint after a big win, especially at home. Wait, that’s what my NFL picks are for. Either way, I thought it was weird the Raiders were able to run up the score like that without much controversy. If that were the Patriots, the media would have been all over it. I guess the Raiders deserve to run up the score after all those years of hardship. Speaking of hardship, I expect that to continue this year. I haven’t seen enough consistently from this team that suggests to me they can win 7 or more games and avoid 7 straight seasons of double digit losses.

24. St. Louis Rams 3-4

The Rams are 0-3 on the road. That makes a ton of sense. They’re a young team with a rookie quarterback. Even their coach is young and in only his 2nd season as a head coach. Those type of teams normally struggle on the road. They’re a talented team and they could win the division even if they go 1-7 or 2-6 on the road, but that doesn’t look likely now that Seattle is actually playing like a playoff team. Yeah, I know, I’m shocked as well that an NFC West team is playing like a playoff team.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-4

They lost by 22 to the Chiefs last week. Many of their fans will try to blame it on Todd Bouman, the quarterback who hasn’t won a game as a starter since 2001. However, their defense gave up 22 points. That’s a huge issue. Matt Cassel only threw for 193 yards, but their pass defense allowed him to be very economical, going 13 for 18. This is Matt Cassel we’re talking about. The reason he only had to attempt 18 passes of because of the running game, which ran for 236 yards. That loss was the defense’s fault, not Todd Bouman. Hell, Bouman (18-34 222 yards 2 touchdowns 2 picks) played better than David Garrard does some weeks. This team is in trouble. 

22. Denver Broncos 2-5

Well that’s embarassing. How do you lose to by 45 points to anyone, let alone the Raiders. The Raiders looked like a top 10 NCAA Football team playing an non-FBS team, running up the score in an attempt to improve their ranking. The Broncos offense is not necessarily to blame. Orton only threw for 198 yards, but that’s because Nnamdi Asomugha shut down Brandon Lloyd completely, allowing one reception for 46 yards late in the 4th quarterback. They actually ran better than they normally do, 75 yards on 17 carries, not like they were given much of an opportunity to run the football. The offense should be fine going forward. Why Broncos fans were chanting that they wanted Tebow in over Orton, I don’t know and this is coming from a Tebow fan. The defense was the issue. The Raiders rushed for 328 yards, on only 52 carries. That’s a lot of carries to give up 6.3 YPC on. This run defense is very bad. Jason Campbell played well too, 12 for 20 for 204 yards and 2 scores, but he didn’t even need to do anything. The Broncos defense is in trouble.

21. Cincinnati Bengals 2-4

Carson Palmer, on paper, had a good week last week. In reality, he didn’t in a 39-32 loss to the Falcons. He threw for 412 yards, but more than 300 of those were in the 2nd half, down more than a touchdown against a prevent defense that couldn’t tackle anyone. He would throw short stuff against a defense defending against the deep ball and his receivers do their work in the open field and that’s how he got his yards. He’s still not the quarterback to lead this team anywhere. He is overrated and the Bengals are overrated.

20. Chicago Bears 4-3

The Bears are like a car accident, you can’t help but look. Jay Cutler did avoid his 3rd straight start of 6 sacks or more, Washington only got to him 4 times. However, he threw 4 picks in a performance that mirrored his performance last season against San Francisco. All 4 picks were to DeAngelo Hall, one of which was a decisive pick six, yet after the game the overly arrogant Cutler said he would pick on Hall again if given the opportunity. That over-arrogance is Cutler downfall. That’s why he threw 26 picks last year. He thinks he’s way better than he is and he can just heave it downfield and good things will happen. Speaking of over-arrogance. Mike Martz’ over-arrogance could get the equally over-arrogant Cutler killed. Cutler may have been sacked only 4 times last week, but that’s 27 times this season in 6 starts. Mike Martz is refusing to run, running the 7th fewest amount of times of any team this season, 2nd fewest of all teams that have yet to have their bye week. He’s also not calling more short throws and 5 step drops. Cutler has no mobility and can’t read blitzes to save his life (literally). He’s a sitting duck out there unless Martz changes up the playcalling. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-2

After their win over the Rams, coach Raheem Morris claimed that the Bucs were the best in the NFC. Though they may be 4-2, .5 games back of the Falcons for best record in the NFC. However, of their 4 wins, only one came against a team that currently has more than 2 wins. That was last week’s game against the St. Louis Rams. That was a one point win against a team that is young and struggles on the road. In fact, I’d say that on a neutral surface, the Rams win that one. Their other 3 wins are against the Browns (with Jake Delhomme), the Panthers, and the Bengals. Yikes! Word of advice, beat someone good before you claim yourself to be their best in the NFC. Also, their two losses came by a combined 50 points.

18. San Diego Chargers 2-5

This week is the last stand for the Chargers. If they lose at home to the Titans, they’re out of the playoff race in my mind, especially if the Chiefs beat the Bills and they almost definitely will. After their loss to the Patriots last week, I have moved the Chargers below the Chiefs on this list.

17. Kansas City Chiefs 4-2

Beating up on the Jaguars doesn’t prove a lot to me, but they’ll get another chance to beat up on the Bills this week and improve to 5-2. With the way the Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers are playing, that’s going to give them a very steady lead on the division.

 

16. Minnesota Vikings 2-4

2 months ago, Brett Favre returned for his 20th season. Now, he’s a 41 year old quarterback under sexual harassment allegations, with a double fracture in his ankle, tendonitis in his throwing elbow, and his team is 2-4. Still, I doubt he regrets his decision. This is what Favre lives for. He loves going against adversity and right now he has more than at any time in his career. It’ll be interesting to see how he responds, starting with the Patriots this week in Foxboro.

15. Miami Dolphins 3-3

Where did this Cameron Wake kid come from? He was in the CFL 2 years ago. Now he ranks 7th in the league in sacks with 6. Bill Parcells has done it again, finding another diamond in the rough linebacker.

14. Seattle Seahawks 4-2

Believe it or not, there actually is a legitimate playoff team in the NFC West. The Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have looked very good since losing to the Rams, beating the Bears in Chicago and the Cardinals in Seattle. If they beat the Raiders this week, they will be 5-3 and have a legitimate shot to finish above .500 with how weak the rest of their schedule is.

13. Houston Texans 4-2

Bye week.

12. Washington Redskins 4-3

McNabb didn’t play much better than Jay Cutler last week. In fact, for the 4 interceptions Cutler throw, you would have though Washington would have won that one by more than 3 points, especially with Ryan Torain rushing for 125 yards. McNabb was 17 for 32 for 200 yards 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions and only led 9 passing first downs all game. However, his experience his going to be key for this team down the stretch in a tight battle atop the NFC East.

11. Philadelphia Eagles 4-3

Well it looks like Michael Vick is back to being the quarterback after their bye. Kolb’s struggles against Tennessee were all Reid needed to see. It’ll be interesting to see if Reid switches quarterbacks once again when Vick has his next game, marking a record 88th time he’s switched quarterbacks this season. Pick one. I say Kolb because he’s the guy now and he’s 2-1 as a starter, but pick one and stick with him.

10. New Orleans Saints 4-3

It looked like the Saints were delivered a wakeup call when the lost to the Cardinals, subsquently beating the Bucs in Tampa by 25 the next week. However, after losing to the Browns, that doesn’t appear to be the case. With the Steelers coming to town this week, the Saints need a big performance to win and right their season.

9. New York Giants 5-2

The Giants had nearly 500 yards of offense last week and held the Cowboys to less than 200, knocking out their staring quarterback for 6-8 weeks in the process and yet still only won by 6. That’s cause for concern. Those 5 turnovers (3 picks, 2 fumbles) and that punt return touchdown were sloppy and that needs to be tightened up for the rest of their season. The Giants lead the league in give aways this season with 21. They’re giving it away more than a slutty blonde cheerleader. They can be the best team in the NFC if they can keep that under control. Their punt unit also ranks 4th worst in the league in yards per punt attempt allowed, though most of that was on one play, that punt return touchdown by Dez Bryant last week.

8. Green Bay Packers 4-3

That win over Minnesota might have been exactly what this team needed. They almost had to watch Favre do what he did for so many years for them, lead a game winning drive, only this time against them to give him a lifetime 3-0 record against the Packers (all 3 games for hated rival Minnesota). However, they came out of there with the win at home. They’re getting Ryan Pickett, Atari Bigby, and Al Harris back this week to add to their defense. They’re still an extremely talented team and can win the whole thing if they can string some good play together at the right time.

7. Tennessee Titans 5-2

The Titans moved themselves into sleeper status last week. This team always plays better than they look on paper and with the exception of their 0-6 start last season, they are 27-7 over the last 3 seasons. vince Young knows how to win games, but their supporting cast is good enough to beat teams without him. Kerry Collins is a capable backup quarterback, as evidenced by his win over Philadelphia. They’re not elite yet, but they’re getting there.

6. Baltimore Ravens 5-2

The Ravens made stupid mistakes again last week. There’s no way, with their secondary at full strength with Ed Reed, that they should have allowed 34 points to the Bills and needed overtime to win. They made stupid penalties all year last year and have shot themselves in the foot at times this season as well.

5. Atlanta Falcons 5-2

Their secondary has major problems without Dunta Robinson. They simply couldn’t stop the Bengals’ receivers in the open field and allowed 400 passing yards to the Bengals. Of course the injury to Dunta Robinson hurt, but they struggle even with him and if he goes down with an injury down the stretch (something he does normally) they’re screwed. Even with their revamped pass rush, 15 already this season after 28 all last season, they are struggling to stop opposing passing games.

4. New York Jets 5-1

Bye week.

3. New England Patriots 5-1

I’m moving the Patriots over the Jets this week, during the Jets bye, even though the Jets hold the head-to-head. The Patriots beat the Chargers last week. I know the Chargers are 2-5, but that was still an impressive win. They had to travel 3 coasts to play a talented team that was fighting to keep their season alive. That’s an impressive win in my books, even if it was aided by a couple stupid turnovers. The Patriots offense is way less one-dimensional than it was week 2 against the Jets. They’re no longer just chucking downfield to Randy Moss and hoping something good will happen. That’s how they lost to the Jets. Now they’re using the whole field and I think they’d be able to beat the Jets on a neutral field, which is why I have them higher. We’ll see when the two play in Foxboro week 13.

2. Indianapolis Colts 4-2

Bye week.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-1

The first real test for the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger this week, the New Orleans Saints. If they win this one, I can see them running away with the AFC. They’re already on such a higher level than most teams just because four of their games were played without their starting quarterback. All we have to see is how they coexist with Ben thrown back into the mix against a good team. Do they completely dominate, stay the same, or have issues playing as a unit. The loss of Aaron Smith, for the 2nd straight year, on defense hurts.

 

 

Last week overall: 10-4

Last week ATS: 9-5 (+1410/+39%)

Overall picks: 65-39 (.625)

ATS Picks: 52-48-4 (+$1100)

Lock picks: 6-1

Upset picks: 10-10

Miami Dolphins 28 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 Cincinnati

Pick against spread: Miami 4 units

The Miami Dolphins are the type of team that beats the teams they’re supposed to (combined record of the teams they’ve defeated, 6-13) and not the teams they’re not supposed to (combined record of the team they’ve lost to, 15-3). The 2-4 Bengals represent a team they are supposed to beat, even though Cincinnati is for some reason favored. The Bengals are vastly overrated by vegas as Carson Palmer’s stats have been bloated by short throws against prevent defenses in garbage time as well as very good receivers in the open field. He’s also faced very weak pass defenses. The Dolphins are also a run first team. They don’t beat teams that can stop their run, or have a good enough quarterback to make running the ball an impracticality. The Bengals are neither of those things and the Dolphins should win with ease.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 14

Spread: -6.5 Dallas

Pick against spread: Dallas 2 units

Jon Kitna will be starting for the Cowboys here. However, the Jaguars can’t stop anyone through the air. Let’s look at some stats by opposing quarterbacks against the Jaguars. Ryan Fitzpatrick 20-30, 220 yards, 3 scores. Kerry Collins (coming in for an injured Vince Young, having not worked with the first team all season) 11-16, 110 yards, 1 score. Matt Cassel 13 for 18, 195 yards, 2 scores. Kitna’s at least on that level, so he should be a decent game after a week working with the first team. I don’t expect the Jaguars to be able to match, because the Cowboys defense could have their best game of the season this week. Teams who lose an established quarterback to injury (meaning a quarterback who has started every game of the season to this point) are 6-2 against the spread in the first game with their backup at starter. It makes sense, the spread is easier to cover, and the rest of the team is going to be playing 110% in the quarterbacks absence. Incidentally, the two backup QBs who lost against the spread, Seneca Wallace and Todd Bouman. Kitna is better than both of those guys and the Cowboys supporting cast is certainly better than the Browns’ or the Jaguars’. All this being said, I changed by pick from 3 units to 2 because I didn’t like the idea of laying 300 dollars on Kitna to cover a spread of 6.5 points against a team who has a better record (somehow) than his. There’s also a chance the Cowboys come out completely flat following that loss to New York and the loss of their starting quarterback, as they are effectively eliminated from the playoffs after high hopes to open the season.

Washington Redskins 34 Detroit Lions 27 Upset Pick

Spread: -2.5 Lions

Pick against spread: Washington 3 units

Is Matt Stafford overrated or what? This is Stafford’s first start back and he’s already favored over a 4-3 team by a whole field goal. In Stafford’s career, he’s 212 for 392 for 2350 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 20 picks. He has potential, but until I see him be an elite quarterback, I’m not taking him as a favorite over a good team, especially with how bad his defense is. 

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Buffalo Bills 27

Spread: -7.5 Chiefs

Pick against spread: Bills 1 unit

We all saw the Chiefs blowout a bad team last week. The Chiefs scored 42 points, on the strength of their run game, to beat the Jaguars. Most think they’ll do the same this week. I don’t. Unlike the Jaguars with Todd Bouman last week, the Bills have a quarterback who can match the Chiefs point production. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones will run all over the Bills week run defense, but Fitzpatrick can lead drives through the air against the Chiefs weak pass defense, something Bouman couldn’t. I’m not putting a lot on it because it’s the Bills, but I’m taking the Bills to cover in a high scoring affair.

St. Louis Rams 26 Carolina Panthers 12

Spread: -3 Rams

Pick against spread: St. Louis 3 units

So the Panthers score 23 against the 49ers and all of a sudden they’re a good team again? Let’s remember the 49ers suck. Matt Moore will have a much harder time scoring 23 on the Rams this week and with the way the Rams offense plays at home, they might not even cover this tiny spread even if they do score 23. I’m picking the Panthers to struggle offensively and lose by a fairly considerable margin.

Green Bay Packers 23 over New York Jets 20 Upset Pick

Spread: -6 Jets

Pick against spread: Green Bay 3 units

I think the Packers saved their season last week. Beating Favre in a game they could have lost is the perfect way for this team to get back on track, especially with 3 key defensive players back for the Packers this week. I had the Packers beating the Jets early this season when I said the Packers would win it all. I think the Packers are back on track as a title contender and will take this one in a close game. Even if they don’t, I have 6 points to work with because of a fairly large spread.

 

Denver Broncos 31 San Francisco 49ers 13 lock pick, upset pick

Spread: -1 49ers

Pick against spread: Denver 5 units

I don’t think this has ever happened before. My lock pick is an underdog. I know this is a bad week for lock picks, with most of the good teams either playing each other or on a bye. Of my top 11 teams in my Power Rankings, only two of them aren’t playing other top 11 teams or on bye. Those two teams are Tennessee and New England, both of whom have tough matchups with San Diego and Minnesota (2 playoff teams from last year) respectively. I originally had my first 6 unit selection of the year on this one, but then I decided that putting 600 on the 2-5 Broncos might not be the smartest idea. However, I’m still 5 units confident here. Teams covering with their backup quarterback only happens when, the team is good, the backup is decent, the spread isn’t ridiculous. Neither of those 3 are the case this week. The Broncos with their amazing passing game should be able to light up the scoreboard against a 49ers team that gave up 300 yards to Matt Moore last week. I’m not giving Troy Smith any shot to match that. Even though this is technically a home game for San Francisco, it’s in London, so the Broncos are actually closer and if any team has any homefield advantage (very doubtful) it’s the Broncos. 

San Diego Chargers 34 Tennessee Titans 16

Spread: -3.5 San Diego

Pick against spread: San Diego 3 units

It’s last stand time for the Chargers. If they lose this one and Kansas City beats winless Buffalo, they’ll be 3.5 back of the division, having already lost to the team they’re chasing. The Chargers always seem to play their best right when they have their backs up against it. The Chargers played better last week, save for 3 stupid plays. The Chargers dominated the Titans last season, winning by 25. I predicted that because of how much taller the Chargers talented receivers were than the Titans shorter corners. Even without Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson, the Chargers still have a height advantage and that’s how Philip Rivers (also 6-5) can attack this weak Tennessee secondary. Also, in the past three years, when you pinpoint the game that the Chargers turned their season around during, they’ve won that game by an average of 31.7 points. The only reason I don’t have 5 units on this one is because I could be wrong about the Chargers turning their season around this week. This could be the year they finally shoot themselves in the foot one too many teams, but I doubt it.

Seattle Seahawks 26 Oakland Raiders 13 Upset Pick 

Spread: -2.5 Oakland

Pick against spread: Seattle 4 units

The Raiders just beat the Broncos by 45 and earlier this season the Broncos beat the Seahawks by 17. Do some math and Oakland wins by 62, right? Yeah not really. This Seahawks team is playing like a legitimate playoff team that could win 10 games this season and looks, much better than they did earlier this season when they lost to Denver. The Raiders, always disappoint after wins in the Tom Cable era, especially at home. In the Tom Cable era, they are 1-10 after wins, 0-4 after wins at home, losing by an average of 22 points. The Raiders are also winless against the spread as favorites under Tom Cable.

New England Patriots 31 Minnesota Vikings 24

Spread: 5.5 New England

Pick against spread: New England 1 unit

This spread is not actually live right now. This spread is from earlier in the week, before we knew that Favre could miss. I personally think there’s no chance he misses, so I’ll make my pick as if he’s playing against a 5.5 point spread. Note, I will change my pick once an official spread is posted, but if the spread is less than 7 and Favre plays, I’m taking Pats, less than 10 and Tarvaris Jackson plays, I’m taking Pats. The Tom Brady has won 23 straight regular season games in Foxboro and even last year, when the Vikings were playing well, they were 4-4 on the road. They’re winless on the road this season. I’m just not putting a lot on it because Favre always plays his best against adversity. 2-4 team, 41 years old, double fractured ankle, elbow tendonitis and ongoing sexual harassment probe might be the most adversity he’s faced in his career at one time. If Tarvaris Jackson plays, the Vikings become a team playing with their backup quarterback, which I mentioned is 6-2 against the spread this season, 6-0 if you’re a good team with a decent backup, which the Vikings and T-Jax are.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Arizona

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 units

Why is Arizona favored by 3? These two teams are very similar, good receivers, can’t run or stop anyone, except the Buccaneers actually have a quarterback and can protect him. The Cardinals have Derek Anderson and give up the 2nd most sacks in the league per game. It may be a road game for the Buccaneers, but they’re 2-0 on the road this season. The Buccaneers beat bad teams. That’s what they do. The Cardinals are a bad team and even if the Bucs don’t somehow win, there’s 3 points to work with because of this spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 New Orleans Saints 21 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 New Orleans

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 2 units

This is a matchup between the 2008 Super Bowl champs and the 2010. The line is essentially even, so I’m just going to pick a straight up winner. I’m going with the 5-1 team over the 4-3 team that has lost to the Browns and Cardinals and has yet to beat a team with a positive point differential. I’m not saying that with a ton of confidence though, 2 units, as we all know the Saints can explode in big games at home and last week’s loss may have been a fluke and/or a wake up call.

Indianapolis Colts 30 Houston Texans 22

Spread: -5.5 Indianapolis

Pick against spread: Indianapolis Colts 1 unit

I’m picking the Colts to win the first rematch of this NFL season and avenge their week 1 to the Texans for a few reasons. The game is in Indy. The Colts will take the Texans more seriously this week than week 1. The Texans have lost DeMeco Ryans. Arian Foster won’t rush for 231 yards (because that doesn’t happen very often and because the Colts will be prepared for him). Also, the last time Peyton Manning has lost a season series to a division rival, 2002. This is a revenge game after losing to Houston earlier. All that being said, it’s a one unit pick because Houston can be very good and did win this matchup earlier. Plus the spread is pretty big.