RB LeGarrette Blount- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.0%

This week, Kareem Huggins went down for the season and coach Raheem Morris finally stopped using the incompetent Cadillac Williams on anything other than passing downs and Blount led the team in carries and rushing yards in a win over St. Louis. He rushed 11 times for 72 yards and should be the lead back for the rest of the season.

WR Steve Johnson- Buffalo

Percent owned (ESPN): 14.1%

Johnson has become the #1 receiver in Buffalo and with a decent QB in yan Fitzpatrick at the helm, he has fantasy potential. He caught 8 passes for 158 yards and a score last week and has 5 scores in his last 4 games. He’s caught 25 passes for 372 yards and 5 scores this season.

 

WR Davone Bess- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.1%

I mention him a lot but he needs to be owned in more leagues, especially PPR where he should be owned almost universally. He has 32 catches on the year in 6 games and has only once gone under 5 catches in a game. He has 4 games of 6 or more catches and has 348 yards on the season. He also has a score in his last 3 games.

TE Tony Moeaki- Kansas City

Percent owned (ESPN): 28.6%

Not the most amazing tight end, but with 21 catches for 236 yards and 2 scores in 6 games he’s decent and he’s consistent, with only one game under 3 catches. He’s worth a pickup in most deep leagues and should only get better as the season goes on as a rookie receiver learning the nuances of the game. 

 

 

WR Antonio Brown- Pittsburgh

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.9%

Brown was everyone favorite deep sleeper in the preseason after a huge preseason. He’s quietly had 25 catches for 364 yards in 7 games this season, including 7 catches for 102 yards last week. Hines Ward is injured so Brown should continue to get more and more targets from Ben Roethlisberger, who loves throwing to him.

WR Jabar Gaffney- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.5%

Gaffney has 23 catches for 361 yards and a score in 6 games this year and that was with Santana Moss opposite him. Moss is done for at least a month and John Beck is comfortable throwing to him. Look for Gaffney to become the #1 receiver in this offense.

RB Delone Carter- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 17.0%

It’s clear Carter is the best running back Indianapolis has. He rushed for 89 yards and a score on 10 carries last week. Joseph Addai is hurt and Donald Brown sucks.

 

WR Greg Little- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.0%

Greg Little has 17 catches for 160 yards in his last 3 games and seems to be Colt McCoy’s favorite receiver. He’s worth a pickup because he does have upside.

RB Alfonso Smith- Arizona

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

Chris Wells is hurt, so Alfonso Smith would be the lead back in his absence. He doesn’t have a ton of value this week, but if Wells misses more than a week, Arizona plays St. Louis’ miserable run defense next week and Smith could be startable. Stash him on your bench for now.

WR Michael Jenkins- Minnesota

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.5%

Jenkins has 27 catches for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. Percy Harvin, for whatever reason, is not a starter and Bernard Berrian was just cut so Jenkins, who was Christian Ponder’s favorite target against Green Bay and had his first career 100+ yards game, looks like Minnesota’s best receiver as their offense gets better under Christian Ponder.

 

Week 8 Fantasy Football Pickups 

 

We would like to first of all welcome the new bloggers to the group.  We would also like to thank all the readers that have read and follow all our bloggers in the UFB.  Once again we are bringing you the latest and the most accurate power rankings.  So take a seat and see if your team made our list.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers (9)  –  6 – 0   next at Minnesota Vikings

The Packers appear to have no flaws (despite their auspicious schedule so far), and any offensive line issues that were apparent last year have virtually vanished. Whether that’s the offensive line playing better or Aaron Rodgers improving his already-dangerous scrambling ability is debatable. Either way, the Packers look so unbeatable that “Can the Packers Run The Table?” already popped up on Numbers Never Lie today. It’s only week seven!!!

(2)  2. New England Patroits (1)  –  5 – 1   next bye

Who said Patriots have bad defense? Oh wait that was us… The defense deserves every credit for stepping up BIG time. We were really surprised how well the defense played against Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. As much as we would like to give Tom Brady a praise for the late comeback, offense looked sluggish as Cowboys indeed brought “kitchen sink” But hey win is a win and we will take it.

(4)  3. Baltimore Ravens  –  4 – 1   next at Jacksonville Jaguars

Baltimore looked a little shaky to start the season, but now they’re back to looking like the team we’ve seen over the past 2 years.  Flacco throws for 300+ but it was Ray Rice that led them to a solid win over Houston. Next 2 look like W’s for them too which could put them sitting pretty come Halloween…

(7)  4. San Fransisco 49ers  –  5 – 1   next bye

Harbaugh and his team will fight any opponent, including the Lions.  The 49ers proved last week they are up for any challenge.  Lets see how they do after they come out of the bye.  Will they be rested and ready to go or come out rusty and disorganized??

(3)  5. New Orleans Saints  –  4 – 2   next vs Indianapolis Colts

New Orleans got down early, and couldn’t climb back against a tough Tampa team. No shame in losing the to Bucs on the road.  Brees was baited into throwing 3 picks and a loss was the result…Look out Indy, someone is gonna wanna take there anger out next week…Sean Payton torn his MCL and Broke his Tibia when Jimmy Graham fell on him.

(5)  6. Detroit Lions  –  5 – 1   next vs Atlanta Falcons

This was first game where the opponent out-hustled the Lions. I believe this loss is actually good for them since they have two games coming up in which they can easily lose due to arrogance. They are still impressive team but some holes (run-defense) was exploited. How this squad rebound from their first loss will go a long way.

(9)  7. San Diego Chargers  –  4 – 1   next at NY Jets

We don’t know a whole lot about San Diego yet, they’ve beaten some crappy teams and just had a bye. Their game this week against the Jets will be huge for credibility.  A win in New York against the Jets with Rex Ryan’s defense, that would give them a great amount of creditability.

(6)  8.  Buffalo Bills  –  4 – 2   next bye

We all knew that Buffalo’s hot start wasn’t going to last forever, but how far back to earth they come will be the story. Will they totally collapse? Or regroup for a nice season?Fitzpatrick almost had a win there but a huge pick turned it around. They must bounce back against the Skins after the bye. 

  

(11)  9.  Oakland Raiders  –  4 – 2   next vs Kansas City Chiefs

We’ll see if Carson Palmer can keep this team here. As long as Hue Jackson keeps showing that he knows what he’s doing as much as he conveys it to the media, the Raiders should be fine.

(10) 10. Pittsburgh Steelers  –  4 – 2   next at Arizona Cardinals

The win against the Jaguars was not convincing but they won despite not playing their best.  Rashard Mendenhall had his best game in the season even though he was injured and defense seemed as if they have turned the clock back few years. They have easy matchup against the Cardinals but face Patriots at Heinz field a week after.

(NR) 11. New York Giants  –  4 – 2   next bye

So, the Giants lose straight up as 10-point home favorites against the Seahawks, and then beat the 4-1 Bills? How does that make any sense? I’m beginning to think that Eli Manning was the only one in his Survivor pool not to take the Giants, so he purposely tanked the Seattle game.

(NR) 12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers  –  4 – 2   next vs Chicago Bears

They were determined to win this game to stop the recent slide and they achieved that by winning against the Saints. The defense re-discovered its mojo and offense was more balanced, which suits Josh Freeman and rest of offense more. They can continue feeling good by winning against the Bears, which may turn out to be tough match up.

(13) 13. Dallas Cowboys  –  2 – 3   next vs St. Louis Rams

Granted they were up against Brady in New England, and they almost got the win, but still.  Romo had a shot to win it with a “Run the clock out punch em in the face” type drive…..And he couldn’t do it.

(NR) 14. New York Jets  –  3 – 3   next vs San Diego Chargers

The Jets are looking more and more average every week. The offensive line is really bad, especially from a run blocking perspective, and I think everybody is starting to see just how bad Mark Sanchez really is.

(NR) 15. Cincinnati Bengals  –  4 – 2   next bye

Cincinnati is getting 100% out of the talent they have on their roster. Andy Dalton is managing the game well, A.J Green is everything we expected, and the defense is playing out of their minds. Lets see if they can keep it up.

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Nolan Vasan of NFL Draft Geek

Ryan Mc Crystal of Draft Ace

Brian Goldsmith of Hair of the Dog Sports Blog

Clayton Terry of The Fan Experience

 

10/13/11 9 PM ET

USC at California

OT Matt Kalil (USC) #75

Simply put, a stud left tackle, the best since Joe Thomas and Jake Long and possibly better than them. Kalil has done an excellent job of protecting Matt Barkley’s blindside at USC for 3 years. He has NFL bloodlines, his brother Ryan is a Pro-Bowl center for the Carolina Panthers, and he’s so good that he kept Tyron Smith at right tackle for USC. Smith went 9^th in the 2011 NFL Draft. Kalil could go as high as #2, the first player after Andrew Luck. Athletic at 6-7 305, but also powerful, he’d be best fit in a zone blocking scheme like USC’s, but scheme versatile as well. He’s also an elite special teamer, blocking 4 kicks in his career.

MLB Chris Galippo (USC) #54

An elite high school prospect, Galippo had a solid redshirt sophomore year with 70 tackles, 2 picks, 8 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks. He was expected to improve further open those stats last year in his 2^nd year as a starter and follow in the shoes of Rey Maualuga, a former USC middle linebacker who went in the 2^nd round in 2009. However, he struggled with injuries and stayed for his senior year. So far, he seems to have put it all together with 28 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks in 5 games. He’s moving back into day 2 consideration.

10/8/11 3 PM ET (ESPN3 rewatch)

Boston College at Clemson

OLB Luke Kuechly (Boston College) #40

Luke Kuechly’s a statistician’s wet dream. He had 325 combined tackles in his first 2 seasons at BC and now he already has 83 this season through 5 games. He’s had 10+ tackles in 24 of his last 25 games (the other game he had 9) and if he were 10 pounds bigger and a little faster, he’d be a sure top 10 pick. Still, the 6-2 235 pounder is a top 15 pick at this point.

DE Andre Branch (Clemson) #40

Branch, a day 2 pick coming into this year as a 3-4 linebacker/4-3 end type, burst onto the scene last week with a huge 3 sack day against Virginia Tech in a win. Now he’s getting first round consideration. At 6-5 265 with good speed, he’s a fit for either scheme and has potential to move up if he can keep having good games. Through 5, he has 4 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, and 33 total tackles. Last year, he had 54 tackles, 8.5 for a loss, and 6 sacks.

10/15/11 12 PM ET

Baylor at Texas A&M

QB Robert Griffin (Baylor) #10

A solid player in 2010 with a completion percentage of 67.0% with an average of 7.7 yards per attempt and 22 touchdowns to 8 interceptions, Griffin has taken it to a whole new level in 2011. He is completing a whopping 80.3% of his passes for an average of 10.7 per attempt and 19 touchdowns to 1 pick, leading Division I with a quarterback rating of 212.9. He’s also a dual threat who has rushed for 173 yards through 5 games this season after 635 yards in 2010. He’s put himself into the Heisman race in a big way, but because of his early level of competition, opinions are as split on him as they were on Cam Newton last year. One side says he’s awesome, the other says, it’s just been 5 games against weak competition. A big game here against Texas A&M’s talented defense, his toughest test so far, will do a lot to help his stock.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) #17

Tannehill, a former wide receiver turned quarterback, came out of nowhere last year after Texas A&M benched starting quarterback Jerrod Johnson, who didn’t fit the team’s new Pro Style offense. When Tannehill took over, they were 3-3. He took them to 9-4, with that one loss to LSU in the Cotton Bowl. He completed 65% of his passes for an average of 7.0 per and 13 touchdowns to 6 picks in the process and entered 2011 as a potential day 2 pick. However, he is slipping this year after blowing big leads to Oklahoma State and Arkansas in consecutive weeks and a lackluster performance against Texas Tech last week. He’ll need to have a strong game here against Baylor to avoid slipping out of the middle rounds. He’s completing 67.1% of his passes this year for an average of 7.7 per attempt, but only 7 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.

10/15/11 3:30 PM ET

Oklahoma State at Texas

QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) #3

A former minor league baseball pitcher, the strong armed Weeden completed 66.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 per attempt and 34 touchdowns to 13 interceptions in 2010. He has himself in the Heisman race now for undefeated Oklahoma State, completing 75.8% of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards per attempt and 15 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, but concerns about the stat bloating offense he plays in, as well as his age, have him in day 3 right now. He’s 27 and will be 28 by draft day because of his time in the minors. For comparison, he’s older than Aaron Rodgers.

S Markelle Martin (Oklahoma State) #10

Martin is having a strong season and could be poised to take advantage of a weak safety class if he keeps this up. He could sneak into the first round. The 6-1 200 pound safety has 29 tackles, 2 for a loss, and 5 pass deflections this season, after 55 tackles, 2 for a loss, and 10 deflections last year.

 

10/15/11 7:30 PM ET

Stanford at Colorado

OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford) #55

The #2 offensive tackle in this class, behind Matt Kalil, Martin is part of an excellent offensive line that has done a great job protecting Andrew Luck. Even more impressive, Martin has helped keep Andrew Luck protected this year despite the fact that Stanford lost 3 starting offensive linemen in the offseason, including an All-American center. He looks like a top 10 pick.

G Ryan Miller (Colorado) #73

A big tackle offensive guard, Miller is 6-8 310 and projects to be a day 2 pick. He has done a good job keeping Colorado’s offensive line playing well this year even without Nate Solder.

10/8/11 7 PM ET (ESPN3 replay)

Vanderbilt at Alabama

CB Casey Hayward (Vanderbilt) #19

When last I saw Casey Hayward, he was doing an admirable job on Alshon Jeffery against South Carolina. He limited Jeffery, a potential top 10 pick, to 2 catches, though poor quarterback play by South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia had a lot to do with that as well. He also had 2 picks in that game, though again, that has a lot to do with Garcia. Alabama’s passing attack is a little better so this should be a better test for Hayward, who has 12 career interceptions and is gaining some buzz as a potential late first round pick.

MLB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) #30

Hightower is finally healthy and putting it all together. The big 6-4 260 pound linebacker has 29 tackles through 5 games in the middle of Alabama’s 3-4 defense and could end up a first round pick if he keeps this up and continues to prove his health. He was a popular name as a potential first rounder before his injuries, taking over for Rolando McClain inside for Alabama and now that he’s healthy again, he’s starting to get mocked in that range again.

ESPN3 Replays

10/15/11 12:30 PM ET

Miami at North Carolina

OLB Zach Brown (North Carolina) #47

The 6-2 230 Brown is rumored to have run a 4.28 40 before and should run at least in the 4.4s at The Combine. Part of a North Carolina defense loaded with future NFL players, Brown has 42 tackles, 5 for a loss, 2.5 sacks, a pick, and 3 pass deflections in 6 games this year and should be a first rounder in April. If he does run in the 4.3s or even 4.2s, he could be a top 15 pick and one of the first linebackers off the board in a loaded linebacker class (Vontaze Burflict, Manti Te’o, Luke Kuechly, Courtney Upshaw, Travis Lewis, and Dont’a Hightower could all go in the first round).

S Ray Ray Armstrong (Miami) #26

Armstrong, a potential 2^nd round pick at safety, missed the first 4 games of the season with a stupid suspension, but returned last week against Virginia Tech to record 7 tackles. In 2010, he had 79 tackles, 4.5 for a loss, 3 picks, and 3 deflections. The big 6-4 220 safety is very fast for his size and could challenge Markelle Martin to be the top safety in this class with Robert Lester and TJ McDonald struggling so far this season. Mark Barron is also in the mix.

10/15/11 6 PM ET

Alabama at Mississippi

OT Barrett Jones (Alabama) #75

A left tackle at Alabama, Jones, a much better run blocker than a pass protector, projects as a guard at the next level. He’s got great technique, but he’s not very athletic and he doesn’t have the size (6-5 305) to make up for it. However, in Alabama’s run heavy offense, he’s a beast and part of the reason why Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson have had so much success in recent years.

OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) #41

One of the most versatile linebackers in the country, the 6-2 260 pound Upshaw played inside and outside in Alabama’s 3-4 last season, compiling 52 tackles and 7 sacks. He’s best fit in a 3-4, but theoretically he could play outside linebacker and defensive end in a 4-3. This season, he has 18 tackles, 8.5 for a loss, 1.5 sacks, and a pick in 6 games for undefeated Alabama. He had a huge game against Florida when I last watched Florida.

 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-5

Bye

31. Cleveland Browns 1-5

Tough to tell a lot about Colt McCoy from his first start. His stats, 23 for 33 for 281 yards, a touchdown, and 2 picks, as well as 22 yards on the ground on 4 carries, looked good, but at the same time, he only led his team into the end zone once. However, at the same time, he was facing Pittsburgh who made Matt Ryan look silly earlier this season. However, at the same time, it’s a Pittsburgh defense that might have no longer been trying at 100% with Big Ben back. However, he definitely earned another start. They need to see what he’s got, even if it’s only so I can start making more definitive statements in my Power Rankings.

30. Carolina Panthers 0-5

Bye

29. Detroit Lions 1-5

The Lions are 1-5, but at the same time they have a positive point differential (+6) and they are 2nd in the NFC in total points, all without having their starting quarterback for more than 2 quarters. Backup quarterback Shaun Hill is the 2nd quarterback to go down this season, breaking his arm last week against the Giants, but with the bye week coming up and Matt Stafford (shoulder) coming back for week 8 after the bye, that doesn’t matter a lot to the Lions. It’ll be interesting to see how they play with him out there. He’s definitely more talented and got more upside than Shaun Hill, but there’s always a chance he doesn’t capitalize on that upside. He could just as easily lead this team to a 3-13 finish as he could a 6-10 and put them in position, with a high draft pick coming up, to make a run in 2011. They’re not going to make the playoffs this season, but they still should be a very interesting watch the rest of the way, provided Jeff Backus doesn’t allow some big guy to destroy an injury prone Stafford again.

28. Oakland Raiders 2-4

After JaMarcus Russell was cut this offseason, I posted something about how sad I was that he was cut and listing potential replacements for most hillariously bad quarterback in the NFL. In there I said the following about Jason Campbell. “Why not? I happen to think Campbell will do awesome in Oakland (assuming we’re grading on a curve). He hasn’t been anywhere near as bad as people think he is and the Raiders’ scheme fits his arm well. However, maybe the Raiders’ will suck the life right out of him. Maybe they’ll let him do whatever he wants and he’ll gain 50 pounds. Plus, the Raiders are probably the only team on this list that would start an awful quarterback for long enough for it to be true comedy.” I don’t want to call myself a psychic or anything, but after Campbell went 8 for 21 for 83 yards and 2 picks in a loss to the previously winless 49ers, I’m looking pretty smart. Campbell is 51 for 91 for 509 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 picks this season. It could be that he’s been battling injuries, but it could also just be that Oakland sucks the life out of quarterbacks. I mean watching him this season, it’s like watching a skinnier JaMarcus Russell. And speaking of Campbell’s injuries, his knee injury this week could force Kyle Boller to start. Good times.

27. San Francisco 49ers 1-5

Time for them to beat up on crappy teams, after beating Oakland last week, they face Carolina this week. After that, they face Denver, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Arizona, before facing Seattle (in San Fran), Arizona, and St. Louis weeks 15-17. There’s actually still a possibility they could win this division. Or maybe, because the NFC West no longer looks like it can be won by a 6 win team, they just win enough games to take them out of the running for a quarterback in the draft and have to start Alex Smith again. How sad.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-3

Once again, the Jacksonville Jaguars could not stop a quarterback. Vince young was very good in limited action before getting hurt, but he did his work in such limited action that we can not even mention him here. Kerry Collins, coming in off the bench cold, threw for 110 yards and a touchdown on 11 for 16, looking like he was 27 instead of 37. No one in this Jacksonville secondary can cover and they’ve alternated starters every game, so many times that they are really out of options. I don’t know how this team has three wins, but if they can’t stop anyone through the air, and they can’t get any better production out of David Garrard, they won’t get more than 3 more wins the rest of the way.

25. St. Louis Rams 3-3

The Rams beat the Chargers, but it’s the early season Chargers on the road and everyone else in the division won this weekend. Seattle definitely looked more impressive winning in Chicago than St. Louis did at home against the Chargers. This division might not be as bad as it originally seemed, meaning it might take more than 6 or 7 games for them to win this division. I’m still not sure this is a team that can do that.

24. Cincinnati Bengals 2-3

Bye

23. Seattle Seahawks 3-2

So much for being a bad road team, the Seahawks broke the trend and went into Chicago and beat the previously 4-1 Bears. Now, this could be just because the Bears are worse than their record shows, but with Marshawn Lynch out there running and Russell Okung out there keeping the pressure off of an almost immobile Matt Hasselbeck, this team looks like a completely different offensive bunch. Also let’s not forget that run defense, once seen as one of the worst defensive lines in football, their run defense is 2nd only to the Pittsburgh Steelers with a 2.9 YPC allowed. That defensive line also, despite it’s big size and ability against the run has 17 sacks to aid a very weak secondary.

22. Denver Broncos 2-4

This team is simply way too one dimensional to win games against good teams. They can beat up on bad teams all they want with Kyle Orton leading this high powered offense charge, but against teams like the Jets and the Ravens, they need to be able to play defense and run the ball to win. However, because of their weak schedule, they’ll have plenty of chances to beat up on bad teams (starting with Oakland this week) with their amazing passing game and get some wins. If San Diego never rebounds and Kansas City continues losing, that could win this team the division with about 8 or 9 wins, so they’re not completely out of it.

21. Arizona Cardinals 3-2

Bye

20. Dallas Cowboys 1-4

Poor red zone conversion rate, poor takeaway to turnover rate, high level of penalties, that’s how a talented team like the Cowboys can be 1-4 even when on paper their players are playing pretty well. This team just continues to shoot itself in the foot and Wade Phillips is the reason why. Sloppy defense also always stems from a lack of leadership and discipline in the locker room and the fingers must be pointed to Wade Phillips for that. And it’s not like he has a strong track record to keep him in there. He has one playoff win in 5 years with one of the most talented teams in the league.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-2

The question around this team going into this week was were they ready to take on the Saints and beat them in a game that mattered (with potential playoff implications) and the answer was a fairly resounding no, after they lost 31-6. They just aren’t on that level yet with all the holes in their defense, especially missing Tanard Jackson at safety. The Saints beat them deep all game. Josh Freeman is a good quarterback, but with no defense and no running game, they aren’t going to beat good teams (similar to the Broncos). Cadillac Williams has rushed for 190 yards and 0 scores on 75 carries this season (2.5 YPC), just like Larry Johnson for the Chiefs last year, but just like Todd Haley with Johnson, Raheem Morris refuses to see what any of their backups can do in a starting role.

18. Kansas City Chiefs 3-2

I’m moving the Chiefs up even after their loss to the Texans because they really showed me a lot in that game. In fact, betwen their 10 points loss to the Colts and their 4 point last second loss to the Texans, they showed me more that suggests they can win their division than anything in their first 3 wins, all against crappy teams (combined record 4-14). They played both the Colts and Texans tough. They showed good defense in the Indy game and pretty good offense in the Houston game until the 4th quarter and they showed they can exploit bad secondaries against Houston. San Diego is playing badly still and if they lose to the Patriots, it might be time to make Kansas City the favorite in that division.

17. Chicago Bears 4-2

I definitely think their 3-0 start was a fluke, almost as much as the Chiefs’ was. They beat Detroit on a stupid call. They beat Dallas who is much worse than we thought they were. They also beat Green Bay, who was 2-0 at the time, but they committed 18 penalties and effectively started their slide, which is still in progress. Now teams have adjusted and figured out how to beat Jay Cutler and Mike Martz, blitz them. Cutler can’t get the ball out quickly out of a 7 step drop because he takes so long to make reads. Martz has to adjust, something he has never been willing to do, and go to more 3 and 5 step drops to limit the amount of time, or run more with Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. Cutler has been sacked 15 times in his last 6 quarters. That can’t happen. 

 

16. Miami Dolphins 3-2

This team is 3-0 on the road. That’s the good news. The bad news, they’ve yet to win at home. It might be just because the combined record of their home opponents is 9-2 and their road opponents are a combined 5-12, but that’s not a good sign either. They have to be able to beat good teams. They get Pittsburgh at home this week, giving them a chance to beat their first team at home and beat a good team.

15. Houston Texans 4-2

They won last week, but I’m moving them down. They really looked bad defensively. Their offense was amazing once again leading yet another comeback win, but they gave up 31 points to the Chiefs and made Matt Cassel look like Joe Montana, 20 for 29 for 201 yards 3 touchdowns and no picks. They may be 4-2, but they have the 2nd most points allowed this season, only behind Jacksonville. Their pass defense is also 2nd worst only to Jacksonville with a YPA allowed of 8.2. Good teams don’t do that.

14. Washington Redskins 3-3

I’m not sure if this team is for real as a contender, but I am sure they play a lot of close games. They have only played one game that was decided by more than 6 points this season and they’ve gone into overtime twice. At least unlike last season, when they went 3-10 in games decided by 10 or less. Having a legitimate quarterback like Donovan McNabb certainly helps you with that.

13. Minnesota Vikings 2-3

They’re not all the way back into it, but if they beat Green Bay this week, something they did 2 times last season, they’re 3-3 and right back into the mix of things in the NFC North with two slumping teams, Chicago and Green Bay.

12. San Diego Chargers 2-4

Still waiting to see if they’re going to start playing better or not. They do every year, but I think they could be running out of time. They need to beat New England this weekend at home, somewhere they’re played very well this season, or else I think they’re done, or at least no longer the favorites.

11. Tennessee Titans 4-2

They Titans looked very good last week winning their first back-to-back games of the season and looking very good in all facets of the game, even with their backup quarterback in there. It might have just been because the Jaguars absolutely stink, but they do have the makings of a team that could be a very good team this season. We’ll learn a lot more about them this week against the Eagles, who are also 4-2.

10. New York Giants 4-2

The Giants have an opportunity to but the dagger in the Dallas Cowboys this week. If they win, the Cowboys, who are probably already dead, but just to be sure, would be 1-5 and 3.5 games back of the division, losing the tiebreaker. If they win, they could be only 1.5 back with a tiebreaker over the Giants and only 1-1 in the division, in position to potentially go on a run with some luck.

9. Philadelphia Eagles 4-2

I really hope this team sticks with Kevin Kolb the rest of the way. Kolb and Vick are both 2-0 in games they’ve both started and finished, but Kolb beat San Francisco and Atlanta. Vick beat Detroit and Jacksonville. Their stats, Vick is 38-65 for 575 yards, 5 touchdowns, no picks. Kolb is 44-60 for 579 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Very similar stats, very similar records, but Kolb is younger, Kolb was though more highly of before the season, and Kolb is under contract for longer.

8. Green Bay Packers 3-3

The Packers really missed Clay Matthews last week. They didn’t get a single sack on Miami, who conversely had 5 sacks on Green Bay’s suddenly crumbling offensive front. Matthews, who has 8.5 on the season already, has only 4 fewer than the rest of the team and most of teams are because defenses are so occupied “trying” to stop him. Once he’s back and healthy, they’ll be a different team. If they get other key players back, they could still make a run at it if they can click late in the season. They’re still a talented team.

7. Atlanta Falcons 4-2

In his career, Matt Ryan is 8-12 on the road and 14-1 at home, including post season, with that one loss coming in 2008 by 4 in Atlanta. He needs to become a better road quarterback before this team can go all the way, but you see how good of a team they are at home and if they can get a high seed, either 1 or 2, very possible with the way the NFC is turning out right now, they could win it all. They’re definitely still in it, even after a loss to Philly in Philly.

6. Baltimore Ravens 4-2

In the AFC, the Jets have beaten the Patriots who have beaten the Ravens who have beaten the Jets. The Ravens have also beaten Pittsburgh, the other top AFC team, but that was at home without Big Ben and Baltimore does have 2 losses (New England and lowly Cincinnati). They make a lot of mental mistakes, though they are built like a champion with their amazing defense.

5. New Orleans Saints 4-2

It appears that loss to Arizona was the wake up call they needed. After playing it close in all 4 of their first 3 games, going 3-1, still respectable, the lowly Cardinals beat them. After that, they woke up and realized that had to play much better, scoirng 31 without Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, and holding Josh Freeman and the Bucs to 6 points, even without Tracy Porter.

4. New England Patriots 4-1

Deion Branch’s 9 catches against the Ravens were the most by him since the last time he was with the Patriots. He definitely is comfortable in this scheme with Tom Brady throwing to him. They may not have Randy Moss as a deep threat anymore, but their intermediate game is as good, if not better than it’s ever been with Welker, Branch, Hernandez, Edelman, Tate, etc. That’s going to allow Brady to be conservative and not have to force it deep to Moss, part of the reason he struggled last season.

3. New York Jets 5-1

The Jets goal this season was the have the best record in the league. Right now, they do, going on a 5 game winning streak after that pitiful 1 point loss to open the season against the Ravens. However, I still need to see more out of Mark Sanchez before I can declare them favorites. He’s getting close though, even though he did throw his first 2 interceptions of the year against Denver last week, in a win. He did lead the game winning drive, but a penalty helped him in a huge way. 

2. Indianapolis Colts 4-2

Remember the Colts were 2-2 and everyone thought they were dead. 2 games later, they look like potential favorites in the AFC. It’s funny how much 2 wins can change things early in the season, even two wins they were supposed to win. Or maybe most media members just overreact to records and don’t think about facts. They’re now one of the best teams in the AFC record wise and do you really want to bet against Peyton Manning. I didn’t think so.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 4-1

Their defense didn’t look 100% last week, but that just could have been because they played their hearts out for 4 games without Big Ben and saw last week, with Ben back, and the Browns in town, as a nice rest. We’ll see how everything clicks, defense, running game, Big Ben, this week in Miami, against a Dolphins team they shouldn’t overlook.

 

WR Deion Branch- New England

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.4%

Branch’s 9 receptions in his Patriots debut (take 2) was more than he ever had in a single game with the Seahawks. In fact, his last 9+ reception game was his rookie year with New England. Branch seems to have taken off right back where he left off when he left New England, showing a good understanding of the Patriots playbook and scheme and great chemistry with Tom Brady. Expect him to continue to produce at a high level and be start worthy the rest of the way after his 9 catch, 98 yard, 1 touchdown performance against the stingy Baltimore defense.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.0%

Thomas continues to produce with 29 catches for 346 yards this season and Mike Sims Walker continues to be invisible. I’d drop MSW and pick up Thomas. In fact, Thomas should be owned in most leagues.

TE Brandon Pettigrew- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.8%

Pettigrew’s 336 receiving yards and only 12 behind Vernon Davis for 3rd most by a tight end this season. His 33 receptions rank him 2nd to Dallas Clark. He also has a touchdown. In his second season, it appears the 2009 1st round pick is playing up to his potential. 

 

TE Ben Watson- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.6%

Watson’s not too far behind Pettigrew with 29 catches for 318 yards and 2 scores this season. With a rookie quarterback in Colt McCoy under center, Watson, who had 6 catches for 88 yards and a score in McCoy’s debut, could see his stock go even higher. Rookie QBs + Tight Ends = ❤

RB Danny Woodhead- New England

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.1%

Kevin Faulk who? The Patriots, as they always do, showed that no player in their offense, except Brady, is irreplacable. When Faulk went down, Woodhead, a former wide receiver and Jets practice squadder, came in. Though he looks like a 16 year old white kid, Woodhead rushed for 63 yards on a team leading 11 carries last week and for PPR purposes, he had 5 catches for 52 yards and is a former wide receiver.

WR Anthony Armstrong- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.0%

Armstrong has 9 catches for 187 yards and a score in the last 3 weeks and is looking like someone you at least want to stash on your bench. He is showing good big play ability as a rookie.

 

 

 

Last week overall: 9-5

Last week ATS: 6-7-1 (-740/-17%)

Overall picks: 53-37 (.579)

ATS Picks: 43-43-4 (-$310)

Lock picks: 5-1

Upset picks: 7-7

Sports Betting FAQ 

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Miami Dolphins 16

Spread: Pittsburgh -3

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 4 units

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense didn’t look amazing last week, they looked human, allowing Colt McCoy to have a fairly solid debut. My theory, this defense played its heart out for 4 games with Big Ben out. Last week, with Big Ben back and a rookie in McCoy coming to town, they took a bit of a break. I expect them to be better this week. Chad Henne has not won at home this season. I don’t think Henne is a better quarterback than Roethlisberger and a certainly don’t think the Dolphins defense, even with the emergence of Cameron Wake, is anywhere near as good as Pittsburgh’s. Pittsburgh’s is just so much better overall as a team. I don’t see how Henne can outthrow Roethlisberger against Pittsburgh’s defense, without the benefit of his much needed running game against Pittsburgh #1 ranked run defense.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Spread: Atlanta -3.5

Pick against spread: Atlanta 4 units

The Falcons’ weakness as a team is their pass defense. They ranked 27th in the league in YPA allowed. However, Carson Palmer is not the type of quarterback who can take advantage of that. He stinks. He struggled against Tampa Bay, who is playing horrible without Tanard Jackson against the pass. Palmer threw 3 picks in that game and the Falcons defense actually leads the league in interceptions. They should pick him off a few times and set up nice field position for their offense. Cincinnati’s defense is good, but they’ll be missing Antawn Odom for 4 game thanks to a PED suspension. They already struggled to pressure the quarterback before that. Their cornerbacks are amazing, but pass rush is more important than shut down corners for the most part. Also remember Matt Ryan is 14-1 in his career at home and with a 3.5 point spread, all he really needs to do is win. That spread is not very big at all.

Washington Redskins 26 Chicago Bears 16 Upset Pick

Spread: Chicago -3

Pick against spread: Washington 3 units

Jay Cutler has been sacked 15 times in the last 6 quarters he’s played and Mike Martz is refusing to make adjustments, like running more or switching to more 5 step drops. The Redskins have 13 sacks on the season and can create good pressure when they blitz. The Redskins are a good team and the Bears have yet to beat a team that has more than 1 win other than the Packers, who shot themselves in the shot with 18 penalties. I think they are very overrated and should not be getting points here with the way they’ve been playing lately, failing to complete 50% of their passes in 3 straight games. The Redskins are 5-1 against the spread this season and are very underrated. Also keep in mind, they also beat the Packers, who are the Bears’ best victory.

New Orleans Saints 26 Cleveland Browns 20

Spread: -13 New Orleans

Pick against spread: Cleveland 3 units

The Saints have covered once this season, despite being 4-2. I have no idea why they are getting 13 points here, even at home. They play well when they can run, but unlike the Buccaneers, who they ran all over last week in a 25 point win, the Browns are decent against the run, 18th. It’s not amazing but it should be enough to contain Chris Ivory. I just don’t think the Saints should be favored by this many after just one game, when a week ago they were 3-2 and coming off a loss to the Cardinals.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Buffalo Bills 10 Lock Pick

Spread: -13 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Baltimore 1 unit

Big spreads are iffy a lot of the time, but the Bills are really bad so I can feel safe picking the Ravens here, but I almost never put more than 1 unit on a 12+ point spread. Still, I think the Ravens should be able to dominate the lowly Bills here. I don’t even think this needs much explanation.

 

Carolina Panthers 16 San Francisco 10 Upset pick

Spread: -2 49ers

Pick against spread: Carolina 2 units

The 49ers just won so they could get complacent and start feeling like their problems are fixed, especially with 0-5 Carolina on tap. San Francisco is not a good team. They couldn’t do anything against the Raiders until that last drive. The Panthers defense is better than the Raiders. They actually rank 6th in the league in yards allowed, but no one notices because their offense is so bad. They’re also 12th in points allowed. I expect Alex Smith to struggle slightly more on the road, traveling across 3 time zones against Carolina’s defense, than Matt Moore against a San Francisco pass defense that made Matt Cassel look good a few weeks ago. Matt Moore is starting this week and he has more experience than Clausen so he can deal with the lack of supporting cast better. John Fox is also coaching to pad his resume, as evidence by his switch to Matt Moore, the veteran. I expect him to coach well and lead this team to victory at home, their first of the season. All this being said, I’d have to be insane to put more than 2 units on the Panthers against a fairly even spread.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tennessee Titans 21 Upset pick

Spread: -3 Tennessee

Pick against spread: Philadelphia 1 unit

This is a tough one. The Titans have looked great at times this season, but we’ve seen them struggle after a win before this season and it’s tough to tell how good they truely after because of how bad Jacksonville played last week. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is on the road, but has the better quarterback and the better pass defense. However, the Titans amazing pass rush could be in the backfield a lot because of how bad the Eagles line is and that could force the young Kolb to struggle even against Tennessee’s weak secondary. I’m leaning towards Philadelphia to win because I think they’re a better team, but the Titans often play better than they’re expected to. That’s just how Jeff Fisher rolls. I’m taking Philly because they are underdogs and I think they’re the better team, but I’m not putting a lot on this.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Spread: -9.5 Kansas City Chiefs

Pick against spread: Jacksonville 1 unit

Another tough one. Matt Cassel plays well against bad secondaries, but so does David Garrard. The Jaguars secondary is worse, but not by a lot. Kansas City’s also a more talented overall team, but also not a lot. They are favored by a ton, 9.5, and I don’t think they cover that, but I’ve learned by lesson about putting more than 2 units on Jacksonville. They could fairly easily come in and lay a stinker here. But I’m taking the Jaguars to win against the spread. The Chiefs are coming off two heart breaking losses and were not very good to begin with to start the season at 3-0. They could be very flat after two heartbreaking losses with a bad team that just lost by 27 on Monday Night Football at home coming to town.

St. Louis Rams 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset pick

Spread: -2.5 Tampa Bay

Pick against spread: St. Louis 3 units

I’m not understanding why the Buccaneers are favored here. They are 1-9 against the spread at home under Raheem Morris. Their defense is playing terrible right now and they just lost by 25 at home to a team that just lost to the Cardinals on the road. This defense of Tampa’s is terrible and I think the Rams have the better offense. They can at least run the ball and I think Bradford is the better quarterback right now. The Rams have issues on the road, but they did win one on the road this season and I think they can do it again against a team that’s not playing very well.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Arizona Cardinals 21

Spread: -5.5 Seattle

Pick against spread: Seattle 2 units

Max Hall makes his first road start here and he’s going into Seattle, a very tough place to win. The Seahawks haven’t even been that good since 2009 and they’re 6-4 at home. They’re playing their best football now since 2007, when they went 7-1 at home. With Russell Okung healthy and Marshawn Lynch in there, this team is looking like a legitimate playoff team, like they could possibly make the playoffs even in any other division. Hall’s not beating this team in Seattle.

Denver Broncos 24 Oakland Raiders 20 

Spread: -8 Denver

Pick against spread: Oakland 2 units

Kyle Boller is expected to start, but remember JaMarcus Russell and JP Losman combined to beat this team last year 20-19. The Broncos strength is their passing game and that’s the strength of the Raiders defense. The Raiders can’t stop the run, but the Broncos can’t run and don’t even do it that much. The Broncos, meanwhile, can’t stop the run either, but the Raiders run well. The matchups are in favor of Oakland, definitely. Oakland is also an annoying team. They are 4-2 under Tom Cable as road underdogs of 7 or more. They do well when no one expects it. I think they can do it this week, even with Kyle Boller. I also just don’t think the Broncos are good enough to be favored by more than a touchdown, unless they were facing the Bills or someone. I’m not putting a lot of Kyle Boller, but I’m picking him and the Raiders against a team against whome they are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 meetings. The Raiders did beat the Chargers this season. They play well against big rivals.

New England Patriots 34 San Diego Chargers 21 Upset pick

Spread: -3 San Diego

Pick against spread: New England 3 units

Call me crazy, but I actually think this Chargers team is bad this year. Even if they aren’t, they are expected to be missing their top 2 receivers, which is going to help the Patriots’ defense. The Patriots defense isn’t good, but they are opportunistic. They capitalize on mistakes, which the Chargers have been making a lot of lately. The Patriots always come to play against the Chargers and they always seem to beat them. Even on the road, I expect them to do the same this week. There’s no reason why they should be field goal underdogs here.

Minnesota Vikings 28 Green Bay Packers 21 Upset Pick

Spread: -2.5 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Minnesota 2 units

This just seems like the type of game where Brett Favre goes off and shows the world why he’s Brett Favre. He’s playing in Lambeau, against his old team. He’s got the sexual assualt allegations. He’s got the bad elbow. This is a must win game. Those circumstances make most quarterbacks crumble. It makes Favre better. Favre was 41 for 59 for 515 yards and 7 touchdowns to no sacks last season against the Packers. The Packers are banged up now and I expect Favre to play extremely well in a victory.

New York Giants 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset pick

Spread: -3 Dallas

Pick against spread: New York 2 units

I’m going to keep betting against the Cowboys until they start playing to their potential. The fact that they’re favorites here just makes it an even better play. The Cowboys could win. We’ve seen the Giants play bad at times this season, but I’m not going to take the Cowboys until they give me reason to. They haven’t done that yet.

 

 

Week 7 Pickups