Spotlight #1: Syracuse TE Nick Provo

Spotlight #2: Connecticut C Moe Petrus 

1^st quarter 

13:24: Provo with good strength and power on an outside run block.

12:13: Petrus with a good interior block one on one pass block.

11:30: Provo knocked down while run blocking.

10:54: Provo beat off the snap as a run blocker on 3^rd and 1, noticeably slow, but recovers to help convert.

8:58: Provo has one sail over his head, would have liked to have seen him actually try to put his hands up and catch it, but it was a pretty uncatchable ball.

8:45: Petrus looks slow on a pull block, can’t get out fast enough to make any kind of impact.

8:02: Petrus gets beat in run blocking, seems to have given up afterwards, short run up the middle.

7:04: Botched snap and turnover by Petrus, could have been more on the quarterback than the center, but a low shotgun snap.

6:59: Provo with a good pass block, good hand use to block for a long time against extra pressure.

3:50: Mike Ryan slow on a pull block on 3^rd and 1, failed edge block, big loss, forced punt.

0:57: Petrus with a good 2^nd level block, play goes away from him to the outside.

0:19: Petrus quick off the snap on a run up the middle, quarterback draw.

2^nd quarter

14:36: Petrus with another nice 2^nd level block, utilized this time, solid gain.

13:40: Petrus called for unnecessary roughness after a Syracuse fumble recovery. Forced fumble by Chandler Jones.

6:51: Provo with a good effort to throw a downfield block after a teammate’s long reception.

5:35: Connecticut brings pressure up the middle, Kendall Reyes in on a combined sack.

1:54: Provo has a pass bounce to him under pressure, incompletion.

1:26: Petrus bull rushed back one on one, pushed into the quarterback, who was also hit by Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones, a talented end who beats pro prospect Mike Ryan for the sack. Fumble recovered.

0:57: Petrus beat one on one by swim move for the pressure.

0:51: Petrus helps on a double team in pass protection.

0:25: Moe Petrus with another late hit after a pick, 15 yards, poor pass protection as well, bull rushed leading to pressure and an eventual bad pick, picked off by talented junior safety Phillip Thomas, his 2^nd of the night.

0:21: Almost another turnover, pressure by Kendall Reyes.

 

3^rd quarter

14:41: Provo takes a short one for 5 off play action, good job quickly getting open.

13:43: Provo open short on a similar play, more open than last time, takes it for 8 this time.

11:58: Provo on a tight end end around, not taking it for much, a yard or two. Interesting play call.

11:21: Ball off the hands of the intended receiver, Provo does a good job of diving to try to catch it off the deflection, can’t quite, but I like the effort.

10:31: Provo starts off as a blocker, disengages, wide open on play action on the goal line, takes it for the easy score, good fake, good hands, good play.

10:07: Petrus moves well on an outside pitch.

9:53: Back to back big runs, this one up the middle, hole helped sealed by Petrus.

8:10: Petrus outmuscled on a short run.

3:11: Provo struggles with ball rush in pass protection, eventually thrown, good job to hang in.

0:59: Petrus falls trying to execute a 2^nd level block, not agile here.

4^th quarter

12:46: Provo takes a slant on 3^rd and 5 short of the sticks in space, converts.

12:11: Provo takes a dump off, good open field moves and vision to take it for 10+ yards, physical, good stiff arm.

10:44: Provo has his block disengaged from when a good gain to his side, needs more functional strength.

9:29: Provo catches a 1^st on 3^rd against tight coverage on a choice route, uses his body to post up the guy like basketball, good hands and good fight to hold on with guy draped on him and refuses to go down at first.

6:44: Petrus pulls out to block in pass protection, good agility and blocking, gets set quick, good hand use.

5:42: Petrus helps open up a cut block lane on the inside, blocks to the left, seals well.

3:06: Provo takes another short one against tight coverage.

1:31: Provo targeted on 4^th and 6, could have been a completion, but a huge play by Kendall Reyes to bat it down on the line. Instinctual clutch play for the potential day 2 pick.

0:00: Nick Provo didn’t catch a ball in the first half, but finished with 7 catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. He’s very good at getting open short and has good, dependable hands. He’s a great route runner in a Pro Style offense. He’s physical and can post guys up short. He doesn’t have a lot of vertical stretch ability, but as far as possession tight ends go, I think he can be a very good one at the next level. On the season, he has 51 catches for 537 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s also a great end zone threat and his team’s 2^nd leading receiver, his team leader in touchdowns.

As a blocker, he shows promise, but he needs work. He’s got the frame and the upside to be a good blocker at 6-4 249 pounds, but needs to add more functional strength and get stronger at the point of attack. He’s also not the most athletic, which effects his ability to both get separation deep, which I already mentioned, as well as his ability to pull block and block on the move with good feet.

Connecticut has two draftable prospects on their offensive line. Moe Petrus is the lower rated of the two, but the spotlight in this game. The center had his moments, but really didn’t seem to be an NFL caliber player. He had some nice interior blocks, but really struggled to pull block and didn’t look athletic or mobile in the open field. He also had trouble with bull rushes one on one and allowed a combined sack that led to a fumble.

He needs to add more functional strength at the point of attack if he excepts to be able to match up one on one with NFL interior lineman one on one. He did a good job as a double teamer in pass protection and open some nice interior holes for Connecticut’s running game, but he didn’t have a good game. He was also whistled for two late hits after Connecticut turnovers, one of the turnovers he was partially at fault for. He could still get drafted late, but I think it’s more likely than not that he doesn’t get drafted.

Mike Ryan, Connecticut’s left tackle, is a higher rated prospect and could go in the mid rounds. The 6-5 335 pound left tackle is a physically imposing player, but he struggled in this one with another potential mid round prospect, Syracuse junior defensive end Chandler Jones, who has recently declared for the 2012 NFL Draft early.

Jones has a lot of athletic talent at 6-5 265. He’s also brother to Arthur Jones, of the Baltimore Ravens, and Jon Jones, a UFC fighter. However, he could have used another year in school. Struggling with injuries this season, he had just 38 tackles, 7.5 for loss, and 4.5 sacks in 7 games as a junior. The talent is there, but the production never has been. In this one, he had 5 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and a sack and generally won the battles with Mike Ryan. Ryan has been inconsistent this season, but had a great game against Pittsburgh’s Brandon Lindsay, another mid round prospect. He’s a physically imposing player and could have a future at right tackle at the next level. He’s probably an early day 3 pick, while Jones is a borderline day 2/day 3 pick who could solidify himself as a day 2 pick with good pre-draft workouts.

Connecticut controlled the trenches on the defensive side of the ball, led in large part by Kendall Reyes. Reyes, a defensive tackle, had a great game with 7 tackles and a half sack, as well as a clutch pass deflection that ended the game. Reyes looks like a day 2 pick who could benefit from a weak defensive tackle class and wind up in the 2^nd round. He also benefits from being one of the best penetrating 4-3 under tackles in a class where most of the top guys are run stuffers first. He can also play 3-4 defensive end, something other top guys in this class might not be able to do as well.

The 6-5 300 Reyes has ideal 3-4 end size and 46 tackles, 13.5 for loss, and 4.5 sacks on the season. His play really helped limit Antwon Bailey to 50 yards on 16 carries. The 5-7 208 pound back is in his first year as a starter taking over for Delone Carter and rushed for 1051 yards and 6 touchdowns on 240 carries this season, as well as 29 catches. He will have trouble getting drafted late.

 

 

Cornerback 

California

5-9 186

40 time (projected): 4.46

Draft board overall prospect rank: #84

Draft board cornerback rank: #11

Overall rating: 73*

1/23/10: He’s ready for the NFL right now as a nickelback, but he lacks the upside, athleticism, and coverage skills to be a future starting cornerback. He is 5-9 and could run a 40 in the 4.5s which could drop him into the 4^th round. He also returns punts well.

Update (11/2/09): Burnt far too often, but is an NFL ready nickel corner drawing comparisons to 2009 2^nd round pick Alphonso Smith.

            9/19/09: Syd’Quan Thompson is a strong tough cornerback that will be a tough matchup for even NFL wide receivers because of his strength and physicality. He is an amazing pass rusher for a cornerback with 13.5 TFL and 2 sacks in his career and will be used very effectively on cornerback blitzes in the NFL. I’m not sure right now if he projects as a starting cornerback, but he can be a strong blitzing nickel corner. He’s strong in run support which is always a plus with your cornerback and he tackles very strongly. He isn’t very tall, but he’s thick, muscular, especially in the core area, and has a lot of fight in him. He also displays great quickness on punt returns, taking off right where DeSean Jackson, now of the Eagles, left off after he left Cal. He needs some more on man-to-man coverage as he’s been beaten more than you’d like in college. He doesn’t have great positioning or backpedal in the defensive backfield and he does not have the elite recovery speed to compensate. A good defensive backs coach can get a lot out of him though. He has started every game since stepping on the campus in 2006 and has become a strong defensive leader for the Golden Bears. Every defense he has been on has been a good one and that might not be a coincidence. He has good hands and makes a fair number of plays on the ball with 26 pass breakups and 6 interceptions in 3 season. He doesn’t have elite height, 5-9, or elite timed speed, mid-to-late 4.4s, though he plays a little faster than he’s timed. His lack of elite height will hurt him, but corners have survived in the NFL at 5-9 before. I’m not sure he has great upside or that he will ever be an effective every play starter at cornerback, but he can contribute to teams right away on blitzing plays, as a nickel corner, and as a punt returner.

NFL Comparison: Alphonso Smith

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

New England Patriots 34 New York Giants 24 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: New England -2.5 (-120) 6 units

The Pats’ D sucks and now they have to face their first elite quarterback of the season. How on Earth will they stop Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham? That seems to be what everyone is saying. In fact, the Giants have become a public underdog (more on that later), with 60-70% of the action on New York, so much so that this line has shifted about a full point in the past week.

However, I think that’s far from the truth. Yes, the Patriots defense has given up the 3^rd most yards in NFL history, in front of only the 1981 Baltimore Colts (2-14) and this year’s Green Bay Packers. However, in terms of points, they actually ranked 15^th with 21.4 points per game allowed. They bend but don’t break. For reference, New York ranked 25^th with 25.0 points per game allowed, though they have been much better on their 5 game winning streak, allowing 13.4 points per game over their last 5 (Jets, Cowboys, Falcons, Packers, 49ers).

The Patriots might not have played the toughest slate of quarterbacks, but that’s not their fault. And if you look at the best quarterback they’ve played this season, you can see that they held him to 20 of 39 for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick. That quarterback, some slouch named Eli Manning. The Patriots’ defense actually played really well the last time these two teams met, keeping Eli in check and holding the Giants to 24 points. I know the Giants didn’t have Hakeem Nicks in that last one, but Nicks won’t be at 100% this week either with injuries. The Pats defense has been a little better of late as well, allowing 17.0 points per game in their last 3.

I’m not saying the Patriots defense will shut out the Giants or even hold them under 20, but the Giants won’t be able to score at will like some are suggesting. I still like the Patriots if this game were to be a shootout.  They have an excellent pass rush that has gotten better in the playoffs and the Giants’ offensive line still remains a weak point. I think they’re going to have trouble scoring in the 30s. They’ve done that 5 times this season, but that was against Dallas twice, Green Bay twice, and Arizona.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have failed to score 30+ just 6 times in their last 27 regular season and postseason games. They’re actually 3-2 this year when scoring less than 30, including a win last week. Unlike last year, they can win ugly, although they’d definitely much rather play this game into the 30s. The Giants have a good defense, but I still like the Patriots’ chances of getting into the 30s.

The Giants held the Packers to 20, but that doesn’t mean they’ll do the same to the Patriots. I have 3 reasons for that. One, the Patriots’ offensive line is much better than the Packers’ was, especially if the Patriots get back Sebastian Vollmer this week, which it looks like they will. The Giants’ pass rush is amazing, but if Brady can get time, I have no doubt he can carve up a Giants secondary that is a weakness. It hasn’t been exposed of late because their pass rush has been so good, but if Brady gets time, it’s going to get exposed again.

Two, Brady’s receivers won’t drop a dozen balls like the Packers’ did. The Packers’ receivers had 8 (8!!!) dropped passes in that loss, leading to a less than stellar 26 of 46 for 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick for Aaron Rodgers. If only 1 ball is dropped, you can expect something like 33 of 46 for 340 yards or so for Rodgers and that’s a totally different game. The Packers might still lose, but that’s because their defense gave up 37. The Patriots have a better pass rush so I don’t expect that to happen, especially after they held them to 24 last time.

Three, this game is indoors, which is always friendly to passing offenses. Eli Manning and company have a great passing offense and Manning has played himself into the top 5 of all quarterbacks in the league (have him 4^th behind Brady, Rodgers, and Brees, with Peyton Manning’s health being a question mark). However, as I said earlier, if this is a shootout, and I expect it to be, I think the Patriots have a very good chance of winning. Tom Brady is 9-3 ATS in domes. Meanwhile, when the line is 52 or higher in the playoffs (55 in this one), the over is 10-2 in the last 12 instances. Meanwhile, in the last 22 Super Bowls to go over the total, the favorite has won 18 times. Just something to think about.

 

Brady and company struggled last week, but I highly doubt that will happen again this week. The Ravens defense is better than the Giants and Tom Brady rarely has back to back bad games. He knows he’s lucky to have won last week and his comments after the game suggest that he could be in eff you mode this week, and when that happens, there’s no stopping him.

I have other reasons why I feel he’ll be in the eff you mode. For one, it’s the Super Bowl, obviously. Two, this is a huge revenge game. The loss in the Super Bowl to the Giants in 2008 is one of the few dents on his Hall of Fame resume so you know he badly wants to make things right, especially at his age (35 this offseason). He knows his chances are limited, even more limited to avenge it in such a fashion as beating the Giants head-to-head would. He came into the postseason in eff you mode against Denver because he knew how few chances he had left. I expect that to be only stronger this week after a bad week and against the Giants.

This is also a same season revenge game. As I’ve mentioned on several occasions, the Patriots lost to the Giants 24-20 earlier this season. As head coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick is 11-2 ATS in same season revenge games. Brady also has to feel disrespected with most of the attention being on the Giants. Brady is 14-4 ATS in his last 18 as underdogs. He’s not an underdog here, but don’t try to tell him that with all the attention off him (much different than last time he was in the Super Bowl, when the Patriots were basically planning their Super Bowl victory parade all week). 

Going off from Brady’s ATS record as an underdog, Brady is 42-21 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of 3 or fewer. He might not always blow teams out, but he wins so often, 135-43 SU as a starter, 16-5 SU in the playoffs. The Giants are also a public dog, as I already mentioned. I love betting against the public when they back an underdog. Not only is betting against the public generally a good idea (Vegas is rich for a reason), favorites tend to feel disrespected in this situation and come out playing well as a result.

Speaking one more time about their regular season matchup, the Patriots didn’t exactly play bad offensively in that one. Brady threw for 342 yards, the Patriots put up 438 yards of total offense and Brady did lead a game winning drive, he just left a little bit too much time on the clock for Eli Manning and company, who marched downfield for the winning score thanks to a crazy catch by Jake Ballard, some poor defense by the Patriots, and a questionable pass interference call.

In addition to that final drive, their problem was 4 turnovers, including 2 fumbles. I don’t expect that to happen again, especially the fumbles. I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Brady threw 2 picks, but this team is not going to fumble twice again. If they put up 400+ yards again, which I expect them to for all the reasons I listed above, I think they score in the 30s once more and that’s with Rob Gronkowski’s injury.

Gronk’s injury looked bleak last week, but he’s out of the walking boot now and should be at least 80-85% for the game and 80-85% of Gronk is still impossible to single cover, especially in the red zone. An ankle injury won’t affect him so much because he doesn’t do a lot of cutting on the field. He just runs people over. Besides, no team adapts better to injuries than the Patriots.

I’m taking the Pats here, scoring in the 30s and winning by about 10 as the Giants hang in the mid 20s. I don’t expect this to be as close a game as everyone is expecting. I picked the Patriots at the beginning of the season and I’m sticking with them for all the reasons I listed above (going for back-to-back seasons of picking the correct Super Bowl winner in August). I’m making this a very large bet, because it is the Super Bowl. Normally 6 units bets are reserved for those rare “holy crap this line is too good to be true” type games (3-0 in the last 2 years on them), but I’m making one here. If this were a normal week, this would probably be a 3-4 unit bet, but it’s not so I’m going 6. 

 

Last week overall: 2-0

Last week ATS: 1-1 (+80/+15%)

Overall picks: 174-92 (.654)

ATS Picks: 141-118-7 (+$3040)

Lock picks: 12-5

Upset picks: 35-36 (+1668)

Other: -100 (Seahawks 20:1 to win NFC)

Total Money: $4608

Conference Finals recap: Not much to say. I nailed my 3 unit with Green Bay -3.5 over Chicago and dropped my 2 unit with New York +3.5 over Pittsburgh. I made money and I am still up for the postseason and up over 3K on the season on ATS picks alone. I nailed both straight up picks though, picking Green Bay and Pittsburgh to advance to the Super Bowl. In total, I’m up $4608 on the year. Not too bad for my first year keeping track of money.

Random Notes:

Not only did the Jets lose last week, now it appears they have a quarterback controversy. No, Mark Sanchez isn’t being benched for Mark Brunell. I’m referring to the controversy that will ensue once Brunell realizes Sanchez wiped his boogers on him on the sideline. Click here for video.

However, that controversy pales in comparison to the controversy surrounding the sexual assualt charges filed against Rashard Mendenhall. Roger Goodell was torn on what kind of punishment to give Rashard Mendenhall because, on one hand, he’s a Steeler and there’s nothing Goodell loves more than screwing over the Steelers but on the other hand, that’s exactly what Mendenhall was doing (literally) and an enemy of his enemy is friend. The decision was so difficult to make that Goodell’s head eventually exploded, so it appears there will be no punishment for Mendenhall.

However, both of those two controversies combined are nothing compared to the controversy surrounding Brett Favre’s new commercial. Wanna see my Danny Woodhead?

 

Green Bay Packers 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Spread: -2.5 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Green Bay 5 units

Before I give my pick, back by popular demand it’s the Monday Night Countdown crew. Among some of their “analysis”in the Jets/Pats 45-3 game were the following.

Steve Young: It’s my son Braden’s 10^th birthday and we call him Brady B. The stars are aligned. I’m taking the Pats.

Matt Millen: I think Tom Brady is the best quarterback on the field. I’m taking the Pats.

Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I gotta lotta love for New York, but I gotta go Pats.

A couple weeks earlier Chris Berman picked the 49ers to beat the Cardinals 19-16 because 1916 was an important year in San Francisco history. A few weeks after that Berman picked the Falcons to beat the Saints because he likes Diet Coke. Mike Ditka has the uncanny ability to tie everything back to how he used to coach in the NFL (in case anyone forgot), while the rest of the gang just says they are picking this team because they are the better team.

Steve Young: My half-cousin twice removed once had a 3 hour layover in Philadelphia, which is closer to Pittsburgh than to Green Bay. The stars are aligned, I’m picking the Steelers.

Matt Millen: I think the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2008. I’m going with the Steelers. 

Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I got mad love for Ben Roethlisberger, but I gotta go with the Packers.

Chris Berman: WHOOP! The Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2008. I’m taking the Steelers to win 2000-8. WHOOP! WHOOP! WHOOP!

Tom Jackson: The Steelers offensive line is banged up and good quarterbacks with receiver who can spread the field normally do well against the Steelers. I’m taking the Packers.

Stuart Scott: What Tom said sounds smart. I’m taking Packers.

Mike Ditka: I used to coach the Bears and last week the Packers beat the Bears and made Jay Cutler’s knee hurt a little bit. That’s not very nice. I’m going with the Steelers.

Cris Carter: I think the Packers have the better team. I’m taking the Packers.

I picked the Packers to start the season. I picked the Packers again once my Pats were eliminated. So it should be no surprise I’m picking the Packers here to win. I’m not really paying much attention to the spread. If you think the Packers will win, you think the Packers will win by 3. There’s always a slight chance of a bullshit backdoor cover with a sub 3 spread, but never enough that it should scare you into taking the team you don’t think will win.

That being said, I do have other reasons on why the Packers. Aaron Rodgers won’t be scared by this Steelers’ defense. He was 26-48 for 383 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks the last time he faced them, last year, week 15. I’d argue that Rodgers has gotten better since then, and though the Steelers’ pass defense has also improved, Rodgers has improved more than they have.

Ben Roethlisberger is working with one of his most banged up lines ever. That wasn’t the case when these two played last year (though the Packers still managed to sack Ben 5 times). Maurkice Pouncey is questionable for this game, though he says he will absolutely play, but there’s no guarantees at all he’ll be 100%. The Steelers didn’t get any sort of offensive rytyhm in the 2^nd half last week with Pouncey out and they even fumbled on the goal line for a safety on a botched snap.

The combination of Ben’s poor protection and the Packers crazy blitz schemes means that Ben will be going down more than a few times this week. Ben deals with pressure better than any quarterback in the league, though, so while that’s a positive for the Packers, it’s not as big of a positive as it was last week against the Bears.

Another thing I like to do in the Super Bowl is see how both teams do against elite quarterbacks. Super Bowl teams almost always have elite quarterbacks so seeing how each team defends elite quarterbacks is a good measure of how well each team will do defensively. For the sake of this, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger are elite quarterbacks, while Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, and Joe Flacco are borderline elite quarterbacks.

Steelers week 1 vs. Matt Ryan: 27-44 252 yards, no touchdowns, 1 pick

Steelers week 4 vs. Joe Flacco: 24-37 256 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick

Steelers week 8 vs. Drew Brees: 34-44 305 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 pick

Steelers week 10 vs. Tom Brady: 30-43 350 yards, 3 touchdowns, no picks

Steelers week 13 vs. Joe Flacco: 17-33 266 yards, 1 touchdown, no picks

Steelers AFC Semis vs. Joe Flacco: 16-30 125 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick

Packers week 1 vs. Michael Vick 16-25 175 yards, 1 touchdown, no picks

Packers week 12 vs. Matt Ryan 24-28 197 yards, 1 touchdown, no picks

Packers week 15 vs. Tom Brady 15-24 163 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks

Packers NFC Wild Card vs. Michael Vick 20-36 292 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick

Packers NFC Semis vs. Matt Ryan 20-29 186 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 picks

Steelers Total (without borderlines): 64-87 (74%) 655 yards (7.5), 5 touchdowns, 1 pick

Steelers Total (with borderlines): 148-231 (64%) 1554 yards (6.7), 8 touchdowns, 4 picks

Packers Total (without borderlines): 15-24 (63%) 163 yards (6.8), 2 touchdowns, no picks

Packers Total (with borderlines): 95-142 (67%) 1013 yards (7.1), 5 touchdowns, 3 picks

The results: Fairly inconclusive. The Steelers faced more elites and borderline elites and they threw against them more. They had a slightly better completion percentage allowed for slightly fewer yards per, but a worse TD/INT ratio. They also were burned by both Drew Brees and Tom Brady, while the Packers actually managed to slow Tom Brady. I think the result favor the Packers, but they can be interpreted in either way. It’s also worth noting that more of Green Bay’s experience with elite quarterbacks has been late in the season, so they should be more prepared.

The two teams rank 1-2 in point allowed per game. Let’s see how both teams do against elite defense (top 10 in points per game allowed). Those teams are, in order, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, Atlanta, NY Jets, New Orleans, New England, Tampa Bay, and San Diego. I will not count Steelers’ results from weeks 1-4 when Ben Roethlisberger was out nor will I count the Packers game against the Patriots, when Aaron Rodgers was out.

Pittsburgh Week 8 vs. New Orleans (7th): 10 points, 279 yards

Pittsburgh Week 10 vs. New England (8th): 26 points, 425 yards

Pittsburgh Week 13 vs. Baltimore (3rd): 13 points, 288 yards

Pittsburgh Week 15 vs. NY Jets (6th): 17 points, 377 yards

Pittsburgh AFC Semis vs. Baltimore (3rd): 31 points, 263 yards

Pittsburgh AFC Finals vs. NY Jets (6th): 24 points, 287 yards 

Green Bay Week 3 vs. Chicago (4th): 17 points, 379 yards

Green Bay Week 8 vs. NY Jets (6th): 9 points, 237 yards

Green Bay Week 12 vs. Atlanta (5th): 17 points, 418 yards

Green Bay Week 17 vs. Chicago (4th): 10 points, 284 yards

Green Bay NFC Semis vs. Atlanta (5th): 48 points, 442 yards

Green Bay NFC Finals vs. Chicago (4th): 21 points, 356 yards

Pittsburgh average ranking played: 5.5

Green Bay average ranking played: 4.7

Pittsburgh average points per game: 20.2

Green Bay average points per game: 20.3

Pittsburgh average yards per game: 319.8

Green Bay average yards per game: 352.7

Green Bay did slightly better offensively against slightly tougher competition, though that 48 point game does skew things a bit. I give Green Bay a moderate advantage in this statistical analysis, as I did in the last one, but again it’s close.

At the end of the day, both teams have good teams that bring pressure and confuse opposing quarterbacks, and can shut down the run and make sure Mendenhall and Starks respectively don’t see much daylight all game. Both teams have stacked receiving corps with a wily veteran (Hines Ward, Donald Driver), and explosive playmaker (Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings), and good depth (Antonio Brown/Emmanuel Sanders, Jordy Nelson/James Jones).

However, I’m going with the Packers because I think they have the better quarterback behind the better line. No offense to Big Ben at all, Aaron Rodgers is just playing better right now. Rodgers didn’t have a great week last week, 17-30 for 244 yards no touchdowns and 2 picks, but one pick wasn’t his fault, he had several drops and he still posted a better line than Big Ben. Ben was 10-19 for 133 yards, no touchdowns, and 2 picks.

Rodgers was amazing going into that Chicago game. Besides that Chicago game, dating back to week 9, Aaron Rodgers is 196 for 269 (72.9%) for 2457 yards (9.1 YPA), 22 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Besides that Chicago game, Rodgers went 77 for 105 for 969 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 1 pick in his first 3 playoff games.

The Packers are the type of team that offensively matches up well with the Steelers. They can spread the field effectively. They can go to a spread offense and that’s the Steelers achilles heel. They couldn’t stop Tom Brady or Drew Brees when they did the same thing this year and remember the Super Bowl two years ago. Kurt Warner and company didn’t win, but they played so well once they went spread that they could have easily won if they had played that way the whole game.

Going to a spread forces the Steelers to either move James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley or to take them out of the game completely to avoid them being matched up against a receiver. They then won’t be able to rely on their pass rush as much and will be forced to rely on corner play, which is the weakness of their defense. That’s what the Patriots and Saints and 2008 Cardinals did. The Packers do that almost as well as anyone in the game.

Anothing thing you can’t forget, this is a dome game and the Packers’ offense, as a pass heavy, downfield explosive offense, has the advantage in this type of game. You saw what they did in Atlanta a few weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers’ career passer rating in a dome is 111.2.

I trust him more. I trust his line more. I trust the Packers depth more (don’t understimate their depth). I picked the Packers in August (over the Ravens, but whatever) and I’m doing it again in late January. Packers 23. Steelers 17. I’m making it a 5 unit because it’s the biggest game of the season, I feel confident in it, and I want to go out with a bang.

Super Bowl Prop Bet

Pittsburgh wins by 1-6 +400 (1 unit)/Green Bay wins by 1-6 +330 (1 unit)

This is going to be a close game no matter what. I can’t see this being decided by more than a touchdown. These two teams are so evenly matched. 4 of the last 7 Super Bowls have been decided by less than a touchdown. Of the three that weren’t, two needed a late pick six to make the lead bigger than 7. Besides, the Steelers have only lost two games by more than 5 points all year while the Packers haven’t lost a game by more than 4 points since week 8 of 2009.

I’m betting 1 unit on each so if the Steelers win by 6 or fewer, I win 300 (minus the 100 for losing the Packers part of the bet) and if the Packers win by 6 or fewer I win 230 (minus the 100 for losing the Steelers part of the bet). Average those two out, that’s +265. Sure I’ll take a this game will be decided by less than a touchdown +265 bet. Makes so much sense.

 

By Vince Vitale 

First off this is not a chicken little article with me in panic over a Rams preseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams were 3-1 in the 2009 preseason and it meant nothing. However my premise is are the St. Louis Rams getting any better? Sure it is early and Steven Spagnuolo and crew have only had 16 games to turn things around and it is just not going to happen that fast. However just like under Scott Linehan and Jim Haslett I do not see improvement or change. 

I want to hang my hat on the Sam Bradford express as much as anyone else but a ton of other things have to improve for him to be allowed to make a difference. The Rams had injuries in the O-line and secondary last night that caused them to shuffle some players and play a lot of young players for extended periods of time and I understand that. However the Rams offensive line can not seem to block no matter what players are out there. The Rams continue to miss assignments and fail to block from the inside out. You thought if they would ever block they would at least try to keep Sam Bradford clean. Nope four sacks while Sam was in there in only 20+ plays. The Rams running backs continue to be the worst in the league in blitz pickup. The Rams linebackers have been beaten down the seem over the past few years by every no name TE in the game. The players and coaches have changed but the culture and results have not. Something or someone has to be able to get through to this group of players. The Rams only have three more preseason games to iron out these issues and improve.

While it may take 2-3 more years to get the right personnel to be seriously successful it is hard to watch bad teams like the Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders still manage five wins in 2009 while the Rams have only won six games in three years. Steve Loney has to get the Rams offensive line to be able to block. Pat Shurmer has to have the confidence that the Rams O-line can block long enough for him to actually install an NFL game plan. Steve Spagnuolo has to get players to step up and play above their abilities. Coach Spagnuolo needs to bring the aggressive pass rushing of the NFC East to the Rams. Even if we do not have the same personnel put them in positions to succeed with scheme and game plan. I am still concerned that over the past few years players have left the Rams and started on other teams while not playing well with the Rams. In addition current players like Laurent Robinson and Danny Amendola continue to be the best Rams after being taken from other teams. Why can’t we turn our own draft picks like Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton into stars? 

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