Debate the Rams Off season in the Football Fan Forum

2010 Preview:

The Rams definitely took a step in the right direction by taking a franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford first overall. However, Rams fans aren’t going to see that move pan out right away. Rookie quarterbacks struggle unless they have three things, experience in a Pro Style offense, a good supporting cast, and 30 or more starts in college. Bradford has none of those three things. Plus, he hasn’t been in a game on any level since last October thanks to an injury. He’ll likely be rusty. That doesn’t mean he won’t pan out ever. Plenty of quarterbacks have had awful rookie years and gone on to become Pro Bowlers, even future Hall of Famers in Peyton Manning’s case. He just won’t be good this year. And if they start AJ Feeley over Bradford, that’s great, history shows quarterbacks who sit in their rookie year pan out more, but don’t expect Feeley to win them a ton of games either.

Now, this team is more than a quarterback. Let’s talk about their supporting cast, a thing I called bad when I mentioned that Bradford didn’t have a strong supporting cast, essential to a rookie quarterback’s success. Steven Jackson is great. He’s also hurt and couldn’t carry them to more than 1 win last year when he was healthy. Their offensive line is banking on rookie Rodger Saffold having a good first year and Jason Smith panning out in his 2^nd year in the league. Injuries have decimated their offensive front so far in their offseason, which is not a good sign.

Their defense isn’t good. Their best chance at any life defensively is their pass rush. Head coach Steve Spagnoulo has done great things in the best with pass rushes and they still have a lot of untapped potential in former 2^nd overall pick Chris Long. They also drafted a few interesting pass rushing options in the mid rounds this year, but overall, their pass rush isn’t making me jump out of my seat.

Their linebackers aren’t good, their defensive tackles aren’t good, their secondary isn’t good, there simply aren’t enough good players on this defense for them to be anything for other teams to fear. Don’t underestimate losing OJ Atogwe either. Their defense went from bad to worse after he got hurt last year and now it looks like the free agent won’t be back next season.

Projection: 2-14 4th in NFC West 

Power Ranking: 31 

Last Season: 1-15 

Draft:

#1 QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

They could have done worse and taken a non-QB, but I would have taken Clausen. I think Clausen’s history of success in an NFL style offense with limited talent around him made him best prepared for the Rams, but it’s hard to give them a bad grade because they picked a guy with more upside at a position of extreme need and value.

Grade: B

#33 OT Roger Saffold (Indiana)

I didn’t see it coming, but I like it. Alex Barron was the most penalized left tackle in the league last year and also gave up 9 sacks. Jason Smith is the left tackle of the future, but he struggled some last year. Even if Smith is able to pan out at left tackle and Barron is able to move over to right and improve, Saffold is still an above average left guard. There’s also a good chance that either Smith doesn’t pan out or Barron continues to struggle and in that case, Saffold can play tackle. The Rams need to protect their quarterback. Maybe the Lions should take a look at what the Rams are doing.

Grade: B+

#65 CB Jerome Murphy (South Florida)

Murphy fits the draft range alright, but I think there were better players at the position than him and I didn’t have cornerback as one of the Rams’ major needs. The Rams need help at linebacker, receiver, and on the defensive line so I don’t understand this one so much.

Grade: C

#99 WR Marshawn Gilyard (Cincinnati)

I would have gone with Everson Griffen because I had him higher rated on my board and because he fills a greater need in terms of positional value, but it’s hard to argue with the Rams getting a 2^nd-3^rd round caliber WR in the top of the 4^th, especially when they have a young rookie quarterback who is used to having talented wide receivers.

Grade: A-

#132 TE Michael Hoomanawanui (Illinois)

Tight end was a need, but I would have liked to have seen them go with a pass catching tight end over a run blocking tight end, even given how good of a blocker Hoomanawanui is. With so many other needs, this luxury pick doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Grade: C-

#149 DE Hall Davis (Louisiana Lafayette)

I didn’t have Davis on my radar as a 5^th round guy at all, but he fills a need and I trust Steve Spagnuolo’s judgements with DEs given his work with Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora in New York.

Grade: C+

#170: TE Fendi Onobun (Houston)

The Rams take their pass catching tight end, I think. Fendi has barely played any football. He is a basketball player with amazing measurables and good upside as a tight end. The Rams had other needs and can’t afford to be making picks like this.

Grade: D

#189: DE Eugene Sims (West Texas A&M)

Trying to trust Steve Spagnuolo’s judgement with ends, but Sims probably shouldn’t have been drafted. Plus, having already taken one end this draft, the Rams really needed to focus on other needs with this pick, DT, LB, S.

Grade: C-

#211: CB Marquis Johnson (Alabama)

Once again ignoring bigger needs to make reaches at positions that aren’t huge needs. I didn’t have Johnson on my radar as a draft prospect at all.

Grade: C

#226: DE George Selvie (South Florida)

I like the 3^rd defensive end they took a lot more than the first two, but still this is their 3^rd defensive end. When you have as many needs as the Rams do, you can’t afford to triple up on positions and Selvie is a bit undersized.

Grade: A-

#254: MLB Josh Hull (Penn State)

Hull actually fills a need at LB, but he’s not the starting caliber LB I was expecting them to get out of this draft.

Grade: A

Overall:

Overall, they could have done a lot worse. They are set up pretty nicely for the future with their franchise QB, a solid offensive line, a franchise DE (Chris Long), and they added some interesting players into the mix and made some nice unorthodox picks.

Grade: B-

Key undrafted free agents signed

OLB Simoni Lawrence (Minnesota)

RB Keith Totson (Oklahoma State)

QB Thaddeus Lewis (Duke)

Positions of need:

Quarterback:

Marc Bulger is practically dead because of all the sacks he has taken over the past few years. He’s so shell shocked that they had to bench him for Kyle Boller last season. Kyle Boller proved last year that he’s nothing but a former 1^st round pick bust and Keith Null, I can only hope, was only drafted and started to help the Rams tank, because I can’t think of any reason why you’d start a guy with zero arm strength and awful decision making. Without a franchise quarterback, they will be mediocre at best again next year and for every year until they get one. This is why I feel they have to draft a quarterback first overall. They may also try to acquire either Jason Campbell or Michael Vick in the offseason, but I see both as mistakes because neither of those guys are franchise quarterbacks, but merely stopgaps. Campbell has a career 25-32 record as a starter and that’s with a much better supporting cast than the one he will have in St. Louis.

Drafted Sam Bradford (#1) 

Wide Receiver:

Assuming they get a franchise quarterback, they’ll have to get him someone to throw to. Donnie Avery is decent, but lacks elite size and Brandon Gibson surprised late last season as a rookie, but he doesn’t have a ton of upside. Getting a true #1 option or future #1 option will be high on their shopping list for this offseason. If the Rams take Clausen first overall, they would be smart to draft Golden Tate in the 2^nd as Tate was Clausen’s top receiver over the last two years at Notre Dame.

Drafted Marshawn Gilyard (#99) 

Defensive End:

Even if Chris Long pans out, which, after a disappointing 2^nd year, is not a sure thing, they will still need a left end opposite him. They only had 22 sacks as a team last year and 6.5 of those came from Leonard Little who is on the wrong side of 30 and also a free agent. I would not be surprised if they dangled a mid-to-late round pick in front of the Giants for Osi Umenyiora, who has demanded that they either give him back his starting job or trade/release him. Osi has already won a ring, so he may enjoy the opportunity to come play for Steve Spagnuolo, his former defensive coordinator who is now the Rams’ head coach, get a full time starting job, mentor a young guy at the position like Chris Long, and try to help rebuild a once proud franchise.

Drafted Hall Davis (#149), Drafted Eugene Sims (#189), Drafted George Selvie (#226)

Defensive Tackle:

Rookie Dorell Scott is probably the only defensive tackle from their 2009 roster I’d want playing any significant playing time on my team, and even he, I don’t think, is quite starter material. They’ll give Adam Carriker one more shot at the position, but he’s coming off of a major shoulder injury and he wasn’t great before the injury either. If they draft or sign a defensive tackle, they could move Carriker out to left end, his college position. That being said, drafting Ndamukong Suh #1 over Jimmy Clausen would be a mistake. There’s a reason defensive tackle is 4^th on this list and quarterback 1^st. They won’t get anywhere without a franchise quarterback.

Signed Fred Robbins, Signed Chris Hovan

Outside Linebacker:

After they traded Will Witherspoon, this defense just fell apart. A late season injury by OJ Atogwe didn’t help, but going from Witherspoon to Paris Lenon at the outside linebacker position was a major downgrade and noticeably so. Lenon is a free agent this offseason and I doubt he will be resigned.

Traded for Bobby Carpenter 

Safety:

Speaking of OJ Atogwe, when he down with injury, then the entire defense just fell apart. Atogwe is a free agent, so, while they have more pressing needs, a replacement would be nice.

Traded for Kevin Payne 

Tight End:

The top three tight ends on their depth chart are free agents so they may look to go in a completely different direction at the position. However, once again, they have more pressing issues.

Drafted Mike Hoomanawanui (#132), Drafted Fendi Onobun (#170) 

Running Back:

They have almost no depth behind Steven Jackson. I don’t know how many more 300 carry seasons Sjax can handle so a solid backup, preferably a young guy who could take over if Jackson starts to break down, is a need and something I expect them to look for late in the draft.

 

Free Agents:

QB Marc Bulger- signed with Ravens 1 year

QB Kyle Boller- signed with Raiders

RB Kenneth Darby (restricted)- resigned

RB Sakmon Gado (restricted)

WR Ruvell Martin (restricted) 

TE Randy McMichael- signed with Chargers 1 year

TE Daniel Fells- resigned 1 year 1.5 million

OT Alex Barron (restricted)- traded to Cowboys

G Mark Setterstrom (restricted)- resigned 1 year

DE Leonard Little 

DE Victor Adeyanju- (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million

DE James Hall- resigned 

DT Clifton Ryan (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.6 million

DT Gary Gibson- resigned 1 year

OLB David Vobora (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year

OLB Larry Grant (exclusive rights)- resigned

OLB Paris Lenon- signed with Cardinals 3 years 

OLB Simoni Lawrence- signed with Eagles 

CB Jonathan Wade (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Lions

CB Quincy Butler (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year .47 million

S OJ Atogwe (restricted)- resigned 5 years

S David Roach (exclusive rights)- resigned

Offseason moves:

Rams re-sign S David Roach

Rams re-sign S O.J. Atogwe

Rams re-sign OLB Larry Grant

Rams sign DT Chris Hovan

Rams announce retirement of WR Isaac Bruce

Rams trade OT Alex Barron to Cowboys for OLB Bobby Carpenter 

Rams re-sign OT Alex Barron

Rams acquire S Kevin Payne from Bears for conditional 7th-round pick

Rams trade 3-4 DE Adam Carriker to the Redskins for exchange of 5th-round picks 

Rams re-sign DT Clifton Ryan

Rams re-sign DT Gary Gibson

Rams sign OLB Na’il Diggs 

Rams cut QB Marc Bulger

Rams re-sign CB Quincy Butler 

Rams re-sign DE James Hall

Rams sign CB Kevin Dockery

Rams sign TE Darcy Johnson

Rams re-sign OLB David Vobora 

Rams re-sign RB Kenneth Darby

Rams re-sign G Mark Setterstrom

Rams sign C Hank Fraley

Rams re-sign TE Daniel Fells

Rams sign DT Fred Robbins

Rams sign QB A.J. Feeley

Rams waive TE Derek Fine

Rams tender S O.J. Atogwe

Rams tender DE Victor Adeyanju

Rams tender DT Clifton Ryan

Rams tender OLB David Vobora

Rams tender OLB Larry Grant

Rams tender CB Quincy Butler

Rams tender RB Kenneth Darby

Rams tender S David Roach

Rams claim TE Derek Fine 

 

 

Steve Smith had a career revitalizing year in 2011 and he teamed with Cam Newton for 79 catches for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns. He ranked 5^th in the league in receiving and proved once again he was one of the league’s premier receivers, even at age 32. He was a free agent after the 2012 season and this extension will add 3 more years onto his existing deal.

However, this deal is absolutely ridiculous. It’s worth 18 million guaranteed from 2013-2015 and up to 36 million max. Steve Smith will be 34-36 years old in that stretch. You don’t guarantee a 34-36 year old wide receiver 18 million dollars, especially one as reliant on speed as Smith. Speed is normally the first thing to go on a receiver. Smith could be a shell of his former self in 2 years or less and he wouldn’t even be halfway through his extension by then.

It’s ridiculous that Steve Smith got more in guaranteed money over 3 years than Reggie Wayne got in total money over 3 years, even though Wayne doesn’t turn 34 until November of the first year of his extension and Smith turns 34 in May of the first year of his extension. And Wayne is much less reliant on speed than Smith and much more consistent. Smith is just a year removed from a 45 catch for 554 yards and 2 touchdowns season. I know Jimmy Clausen was throwing him the ball, but Wayne almost doubled those stats with Curtis Painter throwing him the ball this season. On top of that, Wayne hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season. In that same time period, Smith has missed 21.

Another contract comparison for Steve Smith is Santana Moss. Moss is not as big of a name as Smith, but like Smith, he’s very reliant on speed and he had similar career numbers with similar mediocre quarterbacking when he signed a 13.5 million dollar deal over 3 years last offseason. Smith has 699 catches for 10278 yards and 59 touchdowns in 11 seasons. Moss had 593 catches for 8558 yards and 52 touchdowns in 10 seasons and signed the contract for ages 32-34, as opposed to 34-36 for Smith. For comparison’s sake, Wayne has 862 catches for 11708 yards and 73 touchdowns in 11 seasons

And the kicker, Moss could be cut this offseason. Moss’ abilities greatly declined last season and he also battled through injuries. A similar thing could happen to Smith any year now, but he’ll be guaranteed way too much money for the Panthers to be able to cut him loose without suffering a huge cap hit. For a team building for the future (and doing so well up to this point), this was a ridiculously stupid move.

Let’s take a look at the 11 receivers who rank in the top 20 all time in receiving yards who have played in the last 10 years (since 2002) to see where their career started to drop off. Smith currently ranks 32^nd and is 1626 yards outside of the top 20 so it’s reasonable to expect him to be on this list someday, but not too deep into the list.

Jerry Rice (Last 1000 yard season at age 40, 93 catches for 1298 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 40, last played at age 42)

Terrell Owens (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 127 catches for 1812 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Isaac Bruce (Last 1000 yard season at age 34, 137 catches for 1832 yards and 11 touchdowns in 3 seasons after age 34, last played at age 37)

Tim Brown (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 157 catches for 1697 yards and 5 touchdowns in 3 seasons after age 35, last played at age 38)

Randy Moss (Last 1000 yard season at age 32, 28 catches for 393 yards and 5 touchdowns in 1 season after age 32, last played at age 33, trying to make a comeback this season)

Marvin Harrison (Last 1000 yard season at age 34, 80 catches for 883 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 34, last played at age 36)

Cris Carter (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 81 catches for 935 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Torry Holt (Last season 1000 yard season at age 31, 115 catches for 1518 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 31, last played at age 33)

Jimmy Smith (Last 1000 yard season at age 36, last played at age 36)

Hines Ward (Last 1000 yard season at age 33, 105 catches for 1136 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 33, last played at age 35)

Derrick Mason (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 80 catches for 972 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Of the 11, 9 had a 1000 yard season at age 33 or older, 8 had a 1000 yard season at age 34 or older 6 had a 1000 yard season at age 35 or older, 2 had a 1000 yard season at age 36 or older, and only Jerry Rice had a 1000 yard season after age 37. The average age of a final 1000 yard season is 34.5.

In 21 total combined seasons after their last 1000 yard season, they combined for 1003 catches (47.8 per season) for 12476 yards (594.1 per season) and 70 touchdowns (3.3 per season).

Of the 11, 9 played at age 34 or older, 8 played at age 36 or older, 6 played at age 37 or older, 2 played at age 38 or older, and only Jerry Rice played after age 38. The average age of a final season is 36.5

The point, even great receivers don’t play well into their mid 30s. Even the average top 20 receiver has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. And as far as top 20 receivers go, Steve Smith is probably below average. It’s reasonable to expect him to have one good season (1000 yards) at age 34, in 2013, the first year of his extension, and then 2 mediocre seasons at age 35 and 36 before being done playing at the end of his contract. That’s not worth 18 million guaranteed at all. 

The Panthers would have been much better off letting Smith play out his contract. They’d have almost definitely been able to resign him for much cheaper next offseason. No one else would be willing to pay him this much and they probably would have been able to sign him on a Wayne-like deal (3 years, 17.5 million, 8.5 million guaranteed), which would have been much more reasonable.

Grade: F

 

 

I don’t get this. Steve Smith can’t be Jeremy Maclin insurance because he too will probably miss the first 6 weeks of the season. He can’t be an upgrade in the slot because Jason Avant is already very good there. The only thing this signing could possibly be is a move to piss off the Giants. However, it could backfire and piss off DeSean Jackson if he doesn’t get a long term deal. Jackson is set to make 8 times less this season than the 4 million, 2 million guaranteed, the Eagles just gave Smith.

Grade: F

 

 

 

Steve Johnson isn’t an elite receiver. He can do some boneheaded things and always seems to drop the ball at the worst possible time, so 36.25 million over 5 years with 19.5 million guaranteed seems a little rich. However, he shows great chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick, to the tune of back to back 1000 yard seasons and he was worth more to them than anyone else. Besides, it’s not like Buffalo is a hot destination for free agents so when they get a player who is above average, they almost have to resign him, even if they have to overpay slightly.

Grade: B

 

 

Steve Janis bringing you the insight, intelligence and fan’s perspective of everything Buffalo Bills. I can be reached at wnywatercooler@gmail.com.  My website is www.wnywatercooler.com. I have been running this all Buffalo blog since 2007.  Obviously I’m a season ticket holder and an avid fan of all sports.  The Bills are my main focus and my favorite team.  

 

The Titans obviously need interior line help. LeRoy Harris isn’t very good and Jake Scott is probably gone as a free agent. Hutchinson is an older player, 34, who was overpaid on the rebuilding Vikings, but he’s a good fit for the Titans on a cheaper contract. He was ProFootballFocus’ 8^th ranked guard last season, so 16 million over 3 years is reasonable for him. No word on the guaranteed money, but as long as it isn’t too much, this is a good deal for a veteran who still has a lot in the tank at a position that ages well. Oh, and Hutchinson and Peyton Manning are friends who share an agent. Make your own conclusions from that.

Grade: A

 

The Patriots needed safety help, but I don’t know how much Gregory, who was ProFootballFocus’ 75^th ranked safety last season in San Diego, will help. He can be solid depth, which they lacked last season, but they’re giving him 7.5 million over 3 years which suggests they think of him as a starter. I don’t know if he’s an upgrade over James Ihedigbo (57^th on ProFootballFocus). I would have preferred to see them look for a safety in the draft instead. I understand it’s a weak draft class, but they have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds and not a ton of needs so they seemed to be in position to get either Mark Barron or Harrison Smith.

Grade: C

 

 

I don’t understand this at all. The Chiefs just spent a 1^st round pick on Jonathan Baldwin and they already have Dwayne Bowe. Why would they give Breaston 25 million over 5 years with 9.5 million guaranteed? I understand Baldwin might not be ready to start as a rookie coming off a lockout shortened offseason, but they’re probably going to want him to start by year 2 right? I know Breaston has history with Todd Haley and history as a slot receiver in Todd Haley’s offense, but in that case they just spent 9.5 million guaranteed on a slot receiver.

On top of that Breaston is not the same breakout receiver who caught 77 passes for 1006 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2008 as Haley’s slot receiver in Arizona. In the past two years, Breaston has had nagging knee injuries. So basically the Chiefs just spent 9.5 million guaranteed on a slot receiver with bad knees on a deal that would take him until he’s 32 if he plays out the entirety of the contract in Kansas City (I’ll bet anyone 50 bucks he doesn’t).

Grade: F

 

 

I had Tulloch as my 20^th rated free agent. He’s one of the best linebackers in the league. He’s only 26 and his 160 tackles last year were 2^nd in the league. I have no idea how the Lions got him for 3.25 million dollars for the 2011 season. There’s no way he didn’t leave a ton of money on the table to join the Lions. My only guess is that he really wanted to rejoin former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who is now the head coach of the Lions.

Grade: A

 

 

Defensive Tackle/Nose Tackle

Oregon State

6-1 303

Draft board overall prospect rank: #30

Draft board overall defensive tackle rank: #5

Overall rating: 81 (early 2nd)

40 time: 5.11 (projected)

3/29/11: You probably know Stephen Paea as the guy who damn near benched 50 reps of 225 at The Combine (he had 49, but said he would have done 50 if he known that’s how many he had), shattering the previous record of 44. However, he’s more than some guy who is great in the weight room. Certainly, lifting that much doesn’t hurt his stock. I know most of the guys who have benched 40+ in the past aren’t in the NFL anymore, hell, I had never heard of half of them and the ones I had (Brodrick Bunkley) I had heard of for the wrong reasons. However, Paea strength translates to the field. He has great strength and leverage, both upper and lower body, and can play the 3-4 and the 4-3 nose despite being a “mere” 303 pounds.

He has an amazing work ethic and he keeps himself in great shape with a low body fat. He’s a self made athlete and his motor never shuts off. His arms are a little short and his natural athleticism is subpar, but he makes up for it in effort. He’s also a little short, which hurts him as a pass rusher and limits him to simply the nose in a 3-4, rather than giving him the potential to move to end.

He does have good bull rushing moves and he had 7 sacks last year for Oregon State, though clearly his ability against the run is his calling card. He also has some upside. He’s a former rugby player who has only been playing football for 6 years after coming over to the states as a high schooler from Tonga (no idea where that is). He also spent 2 years on a junior college team before transferring to Oregon State, where he started 3 years and made an immediate impact.

His knee also should be mentioned. He tore his meniscus at the Senior Bowl and has yet to work out, with the exception of his bench press. He has a private Pro Day set up on March 31^st, but general consensus is that his knee will keep him out of the late 1^st and push him into the 2^nd. Chicago at 29, might have interest, but other than that, it’s very unlikely he goes in the first.

NFL Comparison: Dewayne Robertson