QB RB WR TE OT G C NT DT 3-4 DE DE RLB OLB MLB CB S K P
Updated 4/17/10
100 Once in a decade prospect
95-99 Elite talent
90-95 Solid top 10 pick
85-90 Solid first round pick
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick
65-70 3rd-4th round pick
60-65 4th-5th round pick
55-60 5th round pick
50-55 6th round pick
45-50 7th round pick
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp
30-40 Career practice squader
20-30 No NFL future
0-20 No football future
1. Eric Berry (Tennessee) 98
3/2/10: Of all the good things we could say about Berry, freakish athleticism was not one of them. That is no longer the case as he ran a 4.40 at 6-0 211, benching 19 reps, and flying 43 inches into the air. He’s still a risk in the top 3 because of his position. If he were drafted in the top 3, he’d absolutely have to be a perennial Pro Bowler, otherwise it was a waste of a pick. That being said, he’s one of the few safeties I’d say is deserving of a top 5 pick and if the Chiefs didn’t need a left tackle so badly, he’d be a lock to go 5th overall. He still could if Russell Okung is off the board at 5.
Berry didn’t have as many picks this year, 2, as he had in his first 2 years at Tennessee, 12, but that barely will effect his stock. He’s a real ballhawk in the defensive backfield and patrols zones very well with excellent instincts, but he also has above average coverage skills for a safety and has spent some time at cornerback, in addition to free safety and strong safety. He hits hard, but because of his size, 5-11 200, he projects as a free safety at the next level. In his NFL career he is going to break up plenty of passes, get plenty of tackles, picks, etc and could be the first defensive back to go in the top 3 the last 13 years this year if Tampa Bay falls in love with him.
2. Earl Thomas (Texas) 87
Undersized and has poor tackling form, but he hits hard and his fundamental tackling issues can be corrected. He’s only 20 years old, but he had 8 picks this year showing his ballhawking abilities as a free safety. He has decent coverage skills too and could be looked at as a cornerback, though he has more value as a safety. His only issue will be at 5-11 190, fighting through the physicality at the line of scrimmage on running plays, and also, as is the case for someone who plays as wildly as he does at a small size, injuries in the future could be a concern.
3. Taylor Mays (USC) 82
3/2/10: First he came out and ran an unofficial 4.24, tying Chris Johnson’s record and making Al Davis rise from his grave a few months early. However, officially he was listed at 4.41. Now, thanks to some work with modern technology, comparing Mays’ run side by side with other low 4.3 high 4.2 runs, it’s apparent that both times were wrong and Mays really did run somewhere around a 4.31 (ish?). This is good, but this was exactly what we were expecting from him.
1/30/10: He looked alright against the pass in this game and actually had a nice interception, which is good because one of the big knocks against him is he doesn’t make enough plays on the ball in the air. However, after a dismal week in practice, I can only categorize his entire Senior Bowl week as neutral. I still think he’ll go in the first round.
1/27/10: He has only backed up what we’ve seen from him this year. He can’t cover anyone. He doesn’t play the air in the ball and he doesn’t wrap up his tackles. Some have said he may have to move to linebacker at the next level.
Would have been a lock to go #7 to the Raiders last year, assuming his 6-3 230 4.3 measurables lived up to their expectations at the combine, but returned to school and that may have been a mistake. He was really exposed in coverage this year and will need Al Davis bailing him out to go in the top 15, though I think he stays in the first round. National media has come down on Mays this year, but not enough. He plays way too out of control and doesn’t wrap up tackles well and his coverage skills are very poor. Unless he gets some good coaching, not out of the question, his upside may be as a Roy Williams type safety or a cover 2 linebacker. His potential though is that of a bigger Troy Polamalu though.
4. Chad Jones (LSU) 81
3/2/10: A 4.57 isn’t bad at 221 pounds, but he measured in 10 pounds skinnier than expected and didn’t appear to be any faster. He also struggled somewhat in drills and only put up 9 reps on the bench press. He’s still an early 2nd rounder in my book, though, but barely.
The top strong safety in this draft class, he hits like a linebacker at 6-3 235, but also has experience starting at cornerback for a National Championship team as a freshman so you know his coverage skills are at least decent. He doesn’t have Taylor Mays’ measureables, particularly great timed speed, but he is a better strong safety prospect than Mays and should be drafted first, though I doubt he will be.
5. Morgan Burnett (Georgia Tech) 79
3/18/10: Burnett didn’t work out at the Combine, so he needed a strong Pro Day. A 4.42 40 at 6-1 209 and a 39.5 inch vertical show his athletic potential. He could be a late 1st round or early 2nd round pick in any other year, but this is one of the strongest safety classes in the last ten years so he could fall to the late 2nd. Still, these measurables but him in the running, in a big way, with Nate Allen and Chad Jones to be the 4th safety off the board.
Might get lost in this strong safety class, but 227 tackles and 14 picks in 3 years is something to give a closer look, especially when you combine it with great athleticism at 21 years old. Burnett is on the big side for a safety, but can still play both safety positions well. However, if need for safeties is weak this year, he could slip to the 3rd round.
6. Nate Allen (South Florida) 77
A very fundamentally sound free safety with 10 picks in the last 3 years, he has great instincts and takes good routes to the ball and at 6-2 he’s above average height wise for a free safety. But, like Burnett he could get lost in this safety class.
7. Myron Lewis (Vanderbilt) 77
3/2/10: Kind of like Chris Cook, a cornerback with free safety size who had questions about his athleticism and speed. A 40 time alone won’t kill all of those concerns, but a 4.45 at 6-2 203 certainly helps as he tries to get drafted on day 2.
Suffers from the Sean Smith dilemma, is he a big, slow corner or just a safety. How NFL scouts answer that question could be the difference between 2nd and 3rd-4th round for him. It may help him some that Sean Smith did a decent job in his first year as a starter this year for the Miami Dolphins. The 6-3 205 Lewis had 169 tackles, 3 forced fumbles, 5 sacks, and 10 picks in his 4 year career at Vanderbilt.
8. Reshad Jones (Georgia) 75
Had first round potential going into the year, but had some injuries to deal with this year and also struggled in coverage more than scouts were expecting him to. He’s a bit of a safety tweener, small at 6-1 210 for a strong safety, but not fast or instinctive enough to play free safety well and regularly.
9. Darrell Stuckney (Kansas) 73
He was on the cusp of being a first round prospect this year, but disappointed with only 1 pick and 2 pass deflections. For someone who had not established himself as an elite prospect, that could be enough to drop him down into the mush of indistinguishable safeties in the 3rd or 4th round range. He’s strong against the run, but his size isn’t that of a strong safety so I’m not sure which safety positions he’ll play in the pros.
10. Myron Rolle (Florida State) 72
3/2/10: He had two questions around him coming into this draft preseason: is he committed to the sport and how would he fare after a year away from the game? He answered the first questions alright and, from his interviews, appeared committed, but a 4.68 40 at 6-2 215 shows he may not be quite in football shape yet.
1/30/10: He didn’t play a ton or have any signature moments, but he really did show that he is still in great shape on the plays when he did play and in his interview he really seemed committed to the sport. Both of these are good things for him. There was never an issue about his ability to play the game, just about how he would bounce back physically after a year off, and about his commitment.
1/26/10: Good to see he stayed in shape in his year away from football.
A big question mark after taking a year off of football to study at Oxford. He has top 15 pick talent, but taking a year off of football, isn’t unclear how he’ll respond. We’ll get a chance to see him at the Senior Bowl next week and his stock could end up anywhere from a 2nd to 5th round prospect based off of the results of his Senior Bowl week, his combine, and his workouts. There’s also a possibility that he’s not fully committed to football as he has aspirations of being a neurosurgeon (not that there’s anything wrong with that) and that’s a red flag to NFL scouts, but just showing up to the Senior Bowl could cool that red flag a bit
11. Chris Cook (Virginia) 65
3/2/10: He has free safety size, but he’s looked like a natural corner in this draft preseason, impressing as a big corner in the Senior Bowl and during Senior Bowl practices. A 4.43 40 surprised me a ton at 6-2 212 and is just the cherry on top for a guy who is quietly moving himself up very quickly. He could be a 3rd rounder.
1/30/10: I was confused about why he was invited to this game, but he proved me wrong making some nice plays and being a very tough physical cover guy. He’s still a tweener, not fluid enough to play cornerback, but not quite big enough at 6-1 210 to be a free safety, but I can see him getting drafted in the late rounds.
He’s a bit of a tweener as a free safety and a cornerback, too small for safety, not fluid enough to play safety, but he has good upside at two positions.
12. Major Wright (Florida) 64
He’s an amazing athlete, as is everyone at Florida, but the on the field production didn’t match up with that. He has upside, but right now he’s not much more than that.
13. TJ Ward (Oregon) 62
A very tough run stopper and a huge hitter, but at his smaller size, I’m not sure how that will translate to the NFL. He struggles in coverage and doesn’t have good coverage speed. He’ll be a solid depth safety at the next level.
14. Robert Johnson (Utah) 59
A fluid ball hawking safety who played some cornerback last year. He had 6 picks last year, but his tackling could use some work and he’s not great against the run.
15. Kam Chancellor (Virginia Tech) 58
May have to switch to linebacker because of his 6-3 230 frame. He’ll be a liability in coverage at the next level, but had a very productive college career and has potential as a depth safety, a linebacker, or a special teamer.
16. Quentin Scott (Northern Iowa) 56
He could be this year’s Michael Mitchell, that small school athletic hard hitting safety that comes out of nowhere to get a relatively early pick. Al Davis doesn’t need safeties this year so Scott is unlikely to go in the 2nd round, but with his 6-4 224 and highlight reel of hits, the kid his teammates have nicknamed Taylor Mays could very well be taken in the 4th or 5th as a flier. He projects longterm as a strong safety or linebacker, but he has the speed and fluidity to potentially play other positions in the future and, unlike Mays, he was actually pretty decent in coverage last year, albeit against much weaker competition than Mays faced in the Pac-10.
17. Larry Asante (Nebraska) 55
A very overrated safety, he was a tough hitter on the colligate level and a great strong safety against the run, but he’s undersized so that may not continue on an NFL level and, if it does, it could spell a career full of injuries for him, as smaller safeties like Bob Sanders have had. He’s not as small as Sanders, but he’s certainly undersized. He’s also often lost in coverage and has horrible instincts with his back to the end zone.
18. Kyle McCarthy (Notre Dame) 52
19. Kurt Coleman (Ohio State) 51
20. Chris Maragos (Wisconsin) 50
21. Barry Church (Toledo) 49
22. Justin Woddall (Alabama) 47
23. Aaron Webster (Cincinnati) 47
24. Nick Sanford (San Diego State) 46
25. Michael Greco (Central Florida) 45
26. Robert Vaughn (Connecticut) 45
27. Cody Grimm (Virginia Tech) 42
28. Da’Mon Cromartie-Smith (UTEP) 40
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