Dunta Robinson Falcons

The Falcons desperately needed a cornerback. They resigned Brian Williams yesterday, but he’s barely a #2. Robinson was the best cornerback on the market and, though they overpaid for him a little, they needed him. He will instantly upgrade their pass defense and allow them to focus on taking a defensive end like Brandon Graham in the 1st round, to further upgrade their pass defense.

Grade: B+

Duke/Virginia

Spotlight #1: Virginia CB Chase Minnifield

Spotlight #2: Duke S Matt Daniels 

1st quarter

11:36: Minnifield good use of hands in press, strong.

11:26: Matt Daniels with a tackle, but also unnecessary roughness, good effort to play through whistley, but needs to be smarter about things like this.

10:44: Daniels helps bring a guy down after a sizeable again.

8:54: Minnifield with a good open field tackle after the ball carrier breaks a couple closer to the line.

5:36: Minnifield gives up inside position on a slant on the goal line, catchable ball, could have been a touchdown but physical play by Minnifield helps contribute to eventual drop.

3:00: Daniels misses a tackle, tough play, good explosive to even take a shot at it.

1:58: Daniels overpursues to the inside on a run play, good instincts to come and play ball, but poor angle.

2nd quarter

14:05: Donovan Varner breaks a 64 yard touchdown on a crossing route over the middle.

9:22: Minnifield thrown on in the end zone with a fade route, incomplete, could have been ruled holding or pass interference.

9:12: Minnifield stays away from sticking his nose in on a goal line run, Cam Johnson with the clutch tackle.

8:25: Daniels shoots up and makes a great open field tackle, doesn’t get juked out.

3:38: Daniels has one on one coverage deep, thrown on, not the best coverage, but overthrown and incomplete.

3:34: Daniels makes a nice play to take the ball carrier down for a gain of a yard or two.

2:25: Daniels blown past downfield, could have been a long downfield, but overthrown.

1:36: Cam Johnson with a sack.

 

3rd quarter

14:40: Cam Johnson deflects a short one, still complete, good motor to go back and get in on the tackle after a gain of a few.

13:56: Minnifield with the tackle on an end around by Varner for a few.

13:06: Cam Johnson hits the quarterback as he throws, faces an ill advised throw, Minnifield jumps it, pick six.

11:54: Connor Vernon beats Chase Minnifield for a big gain, tackle by Minnifield from behind to prevent touchdown, 51 yards.

11:29: Minnifield soft on a goal line run.

8:49: Matt Daniels makes a stop short of the sticks on a run, fundamental open field tackle on 2nd down.

5:37: Minnifield blocked well on a screen for a first, can’t disengage.

1:05: Cam Johnson with a tackle for loss.

4th quarter

11:57: Minnifield gets another interception, nullified by pass interference.

11:46: Minnifield in on a tackle after another man allows a short catch.

11:15: Varner just overthrown over the middle for a long gain that could have gone for a touchdown, just can’t quite make the tough catch in stride.

8:46: Virginia goes deep on Daniels again, should have been caught, very catchable ball, dropped.

7:54: Varner just drops one over the middle, this time actually in the end zone. Tough catch, but catchable.

7:48: Minnifield allows a reception on a slant over the middle short to convert, Minnifield had his hands on it, Vernon just rips it out of his hands.

5:54: Johnson hits the quarterback as he throws, having a dominant half since Duke’s left tackle got hurt. Varner drops another tough catch, but catchable ball on this one.

4:01: Minnifield one of two in the area on a short throw, leads with his helmet forcing the drop, not called, incomplete. Pro scouts won’t like to see that.

2:31: Daniels blocked off the play in a 9 man box on a run play.

1:02: Daniels on a 3rd down tackle right after the sticks, game over.

0:00: Duke has two talented wide receivers, junior Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner. Virginia has a talented potential first round pick at cornerback and chose to put him on Vernon rather than Varner, which makes sense as Vernon is Duke’s leading receiver and Varner normally lines up in the slot. Vernon missed a few snaps with injury, but for the most part he played most of the game and Minnifield was on him all game. Vernon had just 3 catches for 64 yards.

One catch he beat Minnifield over the middle for 51 yards one on one. He got separation and Minnifield needed to tackle him from behind to prevent the touchdown. His 2nd catch was wide open in space on a screen, but Minnifield couldn’t get off a block to make the tackle, which someone else had to do after a gain of few. His 3rd catch could have been an interception, but Vernon simply outmuscled him and ripped the ball out of his hands for a completion on a slant.

Other than that though, Minnifield limited a talented receiver well. The athletic 6-1 195 pounder is a physical player who plays with great technique and is a student of the game. He sends his game tape every week to his dad Frank Minnifield, a former Pro Bowl cornerback, and goes over it with him. He’s had a bit of an inconsistent senior year, but solid stats, 50 tackles, 7 for loss, 8 deflections, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 3 interceptions, including one in this game which was his first pick six of his career and his 13th interception of his career, including 6 in a fantastic junior year.

He hasn’t great lived up to his junior season this year, but still figures to get drafted in either the 2nd round or even the late 1st round. He could have had a couple more interceptions in this game, but he had one ripped out of his hands, and another one nullified by pass interference. There was also another play in the end zone which should have been pass interference. He also should have been whistled for leading with his helmet. He was generally solid against the run, but struggled to get off a couple blocks and missed a tackle, finishing with, 5 tackles in the game. He’s a long, lanky player who needs to get stronger and become more physical against the run. He’s already physical in pass coverage and would be best in a man press scheme. In my book, he’s a 2nd rounder.

With Vernon kept in check for most of the game by Minnifield, Duke threw to Varner instead. Varner was a frequent target and caught 7 passes for 132 yards and a score, but could have had more. He dropped 3 tough, but catchable balls, including two which could have been touchdowns. They were all tough, but I would have liked to have seen him catch at least 1 or two. He still did have a good game and showed himself again to be a good route runner and possession receiver at 5-9 175. His stats aren’t great with 61 catches for 713 yards and 3 scores on the season, but he’s had a good career and he has a talented Vernon takes catches away from him on already an average at best passing offense. He could still end up as a depth receiver at the next level, but it’ll probably have to be as an undrafted free agent.

Another talented defensive player on the Virginia side is defensive end Cam Johnson. He had a huge game with 2 tackles for loss, a sack, a deflection, a couple of quarterback hits and generally consistent pressure. One of those quarterback hits occurred on the Minnifield interception and the hit definitely forced the bad throw that was jumped by Minnifield. I’m torn on where to stand on him.

I’ve seen a couple of Virginia games, this one and one against Miami, and he’s been awesome in each, but generally his numbers haven’t been that great this season as he has just 30 tackles, 11 for loss, and 4 sacks, but 4 of those tackles for loss and 2 sacks have been in games I’ve seen him. The 6-4 275 pound defensive end is generally regarded as a mid rounder, but the tape I’ve seen on him suggests a 2nd round or even a 1st rounder. It’s worth noting that Virginia had the most success in this game against Duke’s backup left tackle.

Duke’s best defensive player is safety Matt Daniels. The safety has 126 tackles on the season and is a 3 year starter, but needed to prove he was more than a box safety because at 6-1 210 he’s a little small to be just a box safety at the next level. He didn’t do that and really struggled in coverage. He was consistent beat deep and looked really stiff in coverage, but luckily for him Virginia’s quarterback was inaccurate on all 3 plays he was beaten deep on because he could have surrendered 3 huge gains. He had another solid game in run support with 9 tackles. He’s a fundamentally sound player who has a nose for the ball and takes good routes to the ball, though he tends to be a little overly aggressive. He looks like a mid to late day 3 prospect.

 

Drew Stanton Colts

 

Trade for Jets: Stanton demanded a trade after the Jets signed Tim Tebow as the career backup was promised he’d be the 2nd string quarterback in New York when he signed. When I heard this I tweeted “Drew Stanton demands a trade. Uh…you’re Drew Stanton. You don’t demand a trade. You just get cut.” Looks like the Jets found a taker, however. They’re not getting much in return (they get a 6th rounder for Stanton and a 7th rounder), but it’s better than nothing.

Grade: A

Trade for Colts: The Colts needed a veteran backup for Andrew Luck and I guess they liked Stanton more than the other available options, guys like Billy Volek, AJ Feeley, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Charlie Batch, and Curtis Painter (LOL). I don’t see much difference between Stanton and someone like Volek or Batch, but whatever, they didn’t give much up.

Grade: B

 

Dre Kirkpatrick Scout

 

Cornerback/Safety

Alabama

6-2 186

Draft board overall prospect rank: #26

Draft board overall cornerback rank: #3

Overall rating: 82 (Borderline 1st/2nd round prospect)

40 time: 4.46

Games watched: Alabama/FloridaAlabama/VanderbiltAlabama/TennesseeLSU/AlabamaAlabama/Auburn, Alabama/LSU (Part 2) 

Positives

·         Rare size for a cornerback (6-2)

·         Great 40 time for his size (4.46)

·         Long and rangy

·         Great athleticism

·         Great leaping ability

·         Excellent straight line speed

·         Physical in coverage

·         Above average against the run

·         Not afraid to get physical with the ball carrier

·         Powerful hitter

·         Shut down most receivers he played this season (Rueben Randle combined for 5 catches for 32 yards in 2 games against him)

·         Can run deep with any receiver

·         Uses his hands well

·         Well coached

·         Was often thrown away from last season

·         Excellent closing speed 

Negatives

·         Stiff hips

·         Lacks explosion

·         Can get blown off the line of scrimmage

·         Takes a while to get into full speed

·         Not great change of direction

·         Doesn’t play as fast as his 40 time

·         Can get burned by speed receivers

·         No interceptions in 2011 (only 3 in 2010)

·         Minimal ball skills

·         Short arms for his height (could contribute to poor ball skills)

·         Off the field problems

·         Didn’t interview well

·         A bit thin (6-2 186)

·         Goes for the big hit over the safe tackle

·         Struggles with man press

NFL Comparison: Antonio Cromartie

Like Antonio Cromartie, Dre Kirkpatrick has elite athleticism, speed, and size at the cornerback position. Cromartie is 6-3 and he’s one of the few cornerbacks in the NFL any taller than 6-1 or 6-2. Kirkpatrick was listed at 6-3 at Alabama and measured in at slightly over 6-2 at The Combine. He also showed good 4.4 speed.

At his top speed, Kirkpatrick is one of the fastest cornerbacks and he has the ability to run with any wide receiver. Cromartie is the same way, but like Cromartie, Kirkpatrick takes a bit to get up to full speed. He doesn’t have elite explosion and can get blown off the line of scrimmage by faster, quicker receivers. He also doesn’t have elite change of direction or hip fluidity and struggles with quicker receivers for this reason too. Another comparison is Dominique Rodgers Cromartie. Both of the Cromarties have games similar to Kirkpatrick’s. In fact, Kirkpatrick might be a long lost Cromartie (you never know with that family).

Like the Cromarties, Kirkpatrick is at his best lined up in deep zone or man off the line of scrimmage. He’s not going to come up and bump and run very well because he’ll just be blown past, but if you give him some room to work with, very few receivers can run past him and he’s got excellent closing speed to come in and bust up short completions either with a tackle for a short gain or a drop after a big hit. He did very well against Reuben Randle in their two matchups this season and that’s the type of player he can absolutely dominate. Randle’s height is not an advantage against the 6-2 Kirkpatrick and he doesn’t have the elite speed to burn him.

There’s also the off the field problems with Kirkpatrick. He was arrested for marijuana possession earlier this year and while that’s not a huge concern, teams didn’t like how he handled it in interviews and didn’t feel they could trust him. That could land him in the 20s. Tennessee, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Denver are all options for him in the 20-25 pick range. I have a late first round grade on him all things considered. He has elite athleticism, but such a specific skill set and off the field problems that he falls into the late first round. I also have a late first round grade on him for this reason.

<p> </p<p id=”dontshowthis”> </p>
<script type=”text/javascript”

Dream Draft 2011

 

This is a fun idea I saw in other places on the internet, a dream draft. The point is, to give myself the 16.5th pick (right in the middle of the round) in every round, and take the best available player on my board, not paying any attention to team need, and knowing who would be available in the next round. Let’s see some results.

1st round: CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)

Amukamara inexplicably fell on draft day, but he was a consensus top 10 prospect among draftniks (though obvious not among NFL teams). I had him 7th so I snatch him up here at pick 16.5 before he can go to the Giants at 19.

2nd round: CB Brandon Harris (Miami)

Two cornerbacks? Why not? I don’t have anyone on my team. Harris went late 2nd to the Texans, but I was a huge fan of his abilities and had him ranked 12th. He’s short, lacks elite speed and elite ball skills, but he shuts guys down. Until Michael Floyd (a first round talent) burned him in Miami’s bowl game, he held his own with every receiver he faced, until Jonathan Baldwin, the 26th pick in the first round, who has at least 6 or 7 inches on him.

3rd round: DT Drake Nevis (LSU)

I had a borderline first round grade on Nevis as a 4-3 player, but he doesn’t fit a 3-4 at all. The Colts took him in the 3rd, but I don’t give them a chance to do so by taking him ahead of him. He’s a little small, but he fits the 4-3 under tackle role like a glove. He’s a good pass rusher and has a great motor.

4th round: MLB Casey Matthews (Oregon)

I had a 2nd round grade on Casey Matthews. Casey Matthews is Clay Matthews’ younger brother and he’s essentially Clay without Clay’s athleticism. He’s undersized and slow, but he’s got great instincts, he’s intelligent, and he’s extremely hard working. He won’t let you cut him. At the very least, he’s a strong special teamer and I think he can start at middle linebacker in this league for a long time. Middle linebacker is the one position on a defense where hustle and instincts are more valuable than 40 times, size, and leaping ability.

5th round: OLB Greg Jones (Michigan State)

Jones technically would have been available when I picked in the 6th, but Jerrell Powe would have been as well as he’s the 2nd best available at this point according to my board (of all players that wouldn’t be available in the 7th). I was shocked when Jones fell to the late 6th. Leave it to the Giants to snatch him up. I had a low first round grade on him and thought he was a lock for the first 3 rounds (and I wasn’t alone in that). I think he’s a future above average starter at any of the 3 linebacker positions.

6th round: DT Jerrell Powe (Mississippi)

Given the premium on nose tackles, I was surprised that Powe fell to round 6. I had a 3rd round grade on him and thought he wouldn’t get out of the first 4 rounds. He moves like 330 pounders shouldn’t be able to. He’s got character issues in his past, but he’s had a clean record for a couple years.

7th round: S Deunta Williams (North Carolina)

Williams presumably went undrafted because his leg injury. I’m not a doctor and I don’t have the x-rays or the medical on him, but at full health I had a 2nd round grade on the North Carolina safety so he’s worth the risk in the 7th round. I find it ridiculous he didn’t get drafted.

3 undrafted:

S DeAndre McDaniel (Clemson)

I don’t understand how McDaniel went undrafted. He probably would have been a 2nd round pick had he come out after his 9 interception junior season in 2010. He definitely had a down year as a senior, but I thought he was at least a 4th round value. The upside is definitely there. It just needs to be coached out him.

MLB Josh Bynes (Auburn)

What Casey Matthews was to Oregon, Bynes was to Auburn’s defense. He was the emotional leader of that defense, a very instinctual and hard working player that lacks elite athleticism. I’m not surprised he went undrafted. He didn’t even get invited to The Combine, but plenty of starters in the NFL today didn’t get invited to The Combine either and I think Bynes can be the next in that line.

CB Kendric Burney (North Carolina)

Short and slow is bad for cornerbacks so when Burney ran in the 4.7s at 5-9, I had him dropping out of day 2 into the 4th and 5th round. But undrafted? Anyone who watched the Senior Bowl knows this was the best defensive back there. Size and speed is important, but this guy has phenomenal technique and ball skills and figures to start as a Tampa 2 cornerback in the future.

 

Dream Draft

 

This is a fun idea I saw in other places on the internet, a dream draft. The point is, to give myself the 17th pick (right in the middle of the round) in every round, and take the best available player on my board, not paying any attention to team need, and knowing who would be available in the next round. Let’s see some results.

1st round- QB Jimmy Clausen

Perfect. Clausen was a franchise quarterback in my mind and my team of no one needs a quarterback. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. A good quarterback can mask other needs. A good quarterbacks opens up lanes for running backs, makes receivers look good, can make the offensive line look good, and put up points to take leads and allows your defense to blitz, create pressure, and force turnovers. Unfortunately, Clausen did not last to the 17th pick in the 2nd round. He went with the 16th pick in the 2nd to Carolina. However, I’m still more than happy to have him in the first.

2nd round- OT Charles Brown

Brown slipped out of the first round due to a couple of minor injury concerns and questions about lack of size. However, Brown a talented tackle who fits a zone blocking scheme perfectly. He should be a 10 year starter in the NFL at left tackle with good smart footwork and solid lateral agility. Getting a blindside protector for my quarterback is very helpful and it just so happens I can get a solid one here.

3rd round- OT Bruce Campbell

I swear I’m not going crazy over positional value. Campbell is my BPA at this point and happens to play a high positional value position so that’s even better. Campbell could be a left tackle in this league, but he’ll be a solid right tackle as well.

4th round- OLB/DE Eric Norwood

Norwood could serve the Brian Orakpo role on my team and I love what the ‘Skins did with Orakpo last year and hope that other defensive coordinators do similar things with similar players in the future. There were concerns about Orakpo’s ability to cover as a linebacker and to stop the run as an end so the Redskins stuck him at end on passing downs and at linebacker on running downs. Norwood is a similar player, albeit not quite as talented, but he can serve a similar role and be a starter on my team and create a strong pass rush. He’s also my best available out of any player left that wouldn’t be available in the 5th.

5th round- RB Jonathan Dwyer

I thought I was lower on Dwyer than most and when he fell all the way to the 6th, I was shocked. I guess NFL scouts were even more afraid of his option spread background and work ethic concerns than I was. However, he was very productive last year and he’s only 20 years old so I’ll give the kid a shot in the 5th.

6th round- WR Dezmon Briscoe

Like Danario Alexander (before the news of his nasty knee injury surfaced), I felt Dezmon Briscoe was productive enough last year to merit a shot in the mid rounds, despite concerns about his speed and the scheme he played in. Briscoe fell to the late 6th, but I’ll take him here. What he lacks in speed, he makes up for in strength as he looked like a running back in the open field last year. He had good hands on the outside last year too, though he struggled to make catches going over the middle at times.

7th round- CB/S Donovan Warren

I had a borderline first round grade on Warren so when he fell out of the draft completely because of concerns about his speed, people started to doubt me. However, the Jets snatched him as soon as the draft was over and now reports say that Warren may not only be competing for a starting job at free safety this offseason, but he may be the favorite to be their week 1 starter at free safety. Still doubt me?

 

Drayton Florence Bills

 

I don’t like giving long terms to players over the age of 30 unless they’re elite. Florence is not only not elite, he isn’t much more than an average starter. He’s only going to get worse as he turns 31 in December. I don’t think he’s worth 5 million per year now, let alone in 3 years after his contract is done. Why did the Bills draft all those cornerbacks when they were just planning on overpaying Florence to return?

Grade: D

 

Drake Nevis Scout

 

Defensive Tackle

LSU

6-1 298

Draft board overall prospect rank: #37

Draft board overall defensive tackle rank: #7

Overall rating: 80

40 time: 4.92

4/12/10: Drake Nevis is a talented player who is limited in terms of the amount of positions he can play as a defensive lineman, and thus could fall into the 3rd round. He lacks the elite height and size to move over to defensive end in a 3-4, even though he’s a proven pass rusher. I think he would get swallowed up by offensive tackles in the NFL so he can’t play that position. He is too light to play the 3-4 nose tackle so I don’t think he has a position in a 3-4 and 3-4 teams probably won’t even have him on their boards.

In a 4-3, he’s an under tackle and nothing else. Again, he’s too light to play the 4-3 nose. He’s a one gap penetrator only, but he’s very good at what he does. He’s feisty and has a track record of production in college with 7 sacks last season. He’s got a great motor and a great work ethic and he’s in good physical shape, but he struggles when run at and when you look at him, you see why. NFL teams who have seen him in person are turned off by just how small he is. He doesn’t look like an NFL defensive tackle.

Still, I grade him high because of his pass rushing ability and his work ethic. He is a perfect fit for a 4-3 under tackle as a one gap penetrator. He can get into the backfield and take down running backs behind the line of scrimmage. He’s a great tackler and he has good closing speed. Pass rushing is so valuable in the NFL and this guy can get after the quarterback from the inside of the defensive line. Worst case scenario, I think he’s a nickel rusher. He has a role in the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Glenn Dorsey

 

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is this madness? Well, though it may look like something straight out of lost (4,8,15,16,23,42) it is actually the NFL Draft Pick Trade Value Chart. Basically, it is the excepted numerical value of each pick and it is very useful for trying to do draft day trades. Say you had the 13th pick and wanted to move down to 18th. Since the 13th pick has a value of 1150 and the 18th pick has a value of 900, you would expect a pick with a value of near 250 (68th pick) in return for your swap. An example of poor use of this chart, Eric Mangini. When he moved down through 3 trades from 5th to 21st in 2009, he should have gotten 900 points worth of value in return. Instead, he got the 52nd pick (380), the 191st pick (15), the 195th pick (13.4), and three players from the Jets. Add that up and for the trade to be fair according to this chart, those 3 players from the Jets had to equal 491.6 points (roughly the 41st pick). Something tells me Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, and Brett Ratliff aren’t worth an early 2nd rounder.

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

1

3,000

33

580

65

265

97

112

129

43

161

27

193

14.2

2

2,600

34

560

66

260

98

108

130

42

162

26.6

194

13.8

3

2,200

35

550

67

255

99

104

131

41

163

26.2

195

13.4

4

1,800

36

540

68

250

100

100

132

40

164

25.8

196

13

5

1,700

37

530

69

245

101

96

133

39.5

165

25.4

197

12.6

6

1,600

38

520

70

240

102

92

134

39

166

25

198

12.2

7

1,500

39

510

71

235

103

88

135

38.5

167

24.6

199

11.8

8

1,400

40

500

72

230

104

86

136

38

168

24.2

200

11.4

9

1,350

41

490

73

225

105

84

137

37.5

169

23.8

201

11

10

1,300

42

480

74

220

106

82

138

37

170

23.4

202

10.6

11

1,250

43

470

75

215

107

80

139

36.5

171

23

203

10.2

12

1,200

44

460

76

210

108

78

140

36

172

22.6

204

9.8

13

1,150

45

450

77

205

109

76

141

35.5

173

22.2

205

9.4

14

1,100

46

440

78

200

110

74

142

35

174

21.8

206

9

15

1,050

47

430

79

195

111

72

143

34.5

175

21.4

207

8.6

16

1,000

48

420

80

190

112

70

144

34

176

21

208

8.2

17

950

49

410

81

185

113

68

145

33.5

177

20.6

209

7.8

18

900

50

400

82

180

114

66

146

33

178

20.2

210

7.4

19

875

51

390

83

175

115

64

147

32.6

179

19.8

211

7

20

850

52

380

84

170

116

62

148

32.2

180

19.4

212

6.6

21

800

53

370

85

165

117

60

149

31.8

181

19

213

6.2

22

780

54

360

86

160

118

58

150

31.4

182

18.6

214

5.8

23

760

55

350

87

155

119

56

151

31

183

18.2

215

5.4

24

740

56

340

88

150

120

54

152

30.6

184

17.8

216

5

25

720

57

330

89

145

121

52

153

30.2

185

17.4

217

4.6

26

700

58

320

90

140

122

50

154

29.8

186

17

218

4.2

27

680

59

310

91

136

123

49

155

29.4

187

16.6

219

3.8

28

660

60

300

92

132

124

48

156

29

188

16.2

220

3.4

29

640

61

292

93

128

125

47

157

28.6

189

15.8

221

3

30

620

62

284

94

124

126

46

158

28.2

190

15.4

222

2.6

31

600

63

276

95

120

127

45

159

27.8

191

15

223

2.3

32

590

64

270

96

116

128

44

160

27.4

192

14.6

224

2

My issues with this chart:

High draft picks are valued too high. So the 1st pick is worth two 7th picks? What?! Let’s take a look at the last 12 7th picks and the last 12 1st picks

1st

2011: Cam Newton

2010: Sam Bradford

2009: Matt Stafford

2008: Jake Long

2007: JaMarcus Russell

2006: Mario Williams

2005: Alex Smith

2004: Eli Manning

2003: Carson Palmer

2002: David Carr

2001: Michael Vick

2000: Courtney Brown

7th

2011: Aldon Smith

2010: Joe Haden

2009: Darrius Heyward Bey

2008: Sedrick Ellis

2007: Adrian Peterson

2006: Michael Huff

2005: Troy Williamson

2004: Roy Williams (WR)

2003: Byron Leftwich

2002: Bryant McKennie

2001: Andre Carter

2000: Thomas Jones

I know the 1st pick group has a little more talent, but two times more? I would much rather have my pick of 4 of those 7th pick guys than 2 of those 1st pick guys.

Further showing this, Tom Brady was drafted with the 199th pick, value 11.8. I know Brady is an anomaly, but considering the 1st pick has a value of 3000, are you over 250 times more likely to draft a stud QB with the 1st pick than the 199th pick?

This is why so many of the teams that have had success this decade trade down. The Patriots do it every year and it’s no surprise that they lead the NFL in Super Bowl wins this decade.

 

 

 

 

Draft Overview Archive

The 2010 draft could be one of the more talented ones of the decade, not because college football has more talented NFL caliber players right now, but because more of them will declare. There could be a rookie pay scale in 2011 so players could lose millions if they stay in school, especially quarterbacks, even if they actually improve their draft stock by returning. We could see a lot more redshirt sophomores and juniors declare this year than most years.

This year’s defensive line class is interesting. Normally, the bulk of the good defensive line prospects are at defensive end, but this year, at least when you consider elite top 10 prospects, they are all, for the most part, at defensive tackle. Ndamukong Suh might be the best collegiate defensive player in the country and Gerald McCoy is not far behind. Both fit into both a 3-4 and a 4-3 defensive system and both are incredibly mobile for their size. The defensive tackle class also has depth with big pass rushers such as Jared OdrickArthur Jones, and Brian Price. Derrick Morgan is my top rated defensive end prospect because of his size and agility combination. Brandon Graham is not far behind. Carlos Dunlap gets the hype, but he has not lived up to it this season and appears unmotivated on tape. He could be a Jamaal Anderson clone rather than a Mario Williams clone. Rush linebackers are plentiful in this draft class with guys such as Von MillerJerry Hughes, and my personal favorite as a sleeper, Jermaine Cunningham. Everson Griffen has great athleticism and could go in the first ten picks on upside alone as either a defensive end or rush linebacker.

This linebacking class is better than most. Travis Lewis, Greg Jones, and Sean Weatherspoon all have first round talent, but might not go there because of their position. All three can play outside linebacker in a 4-3, but Weatherspoon and Lewis can also play 3-4 middle linebacker. Rolando McClain has shot up my board to be my top rated middle linebacker. He is drawing premature comparisons to Ray Lewis, but those aren’t far off in terms of upside. Brandon Spikes is the big name middle linebacker, but I have concerns about his ability to defend the pass and his explosion. Eric Norwood has awful measurables, but could be a very good outside linebacker in either the 4-3 system or the 3-4 as a rush linebacker. He’ll have to make the transition from defensive end though because of his size. Rennie Curran covers the whole field well and is drawing premature comparisons to Derrick Brooks. He needs to bulk up, but could go in the 2ndround on upside alone.

My top three atop my cornerback board are very good first round prospects, but very different. Trevard Lindley has mastered the art of the man to man coverage and bump and run coverage, but doesn’t have good athleticism to play zone and is very small against the run. Ras-I Dowling is a natural zone corner with elite size, but struggles with man-to-man coverage. Joe Haden plays in a man-to-man scheme at Florida, but gets burnt too often for a first round prospect. However, he’s a freak athlete who is strong in run support and projects as a #1 zone corner at the next level. Kyle Wilson could go off the board in the early 2ndround. Javier Arenas is technically a corner, but projects as a fantastic kick returner at the next level and possibly a receiver. Syd’Quan Thomspon is an NFL ready nickel corner, but gets burnt too much to be an elite cornerback at the next level.

Eric Berry headlines an above average safety class. He is one of the smartest safeties I’ve ever scouted at this level. He has excellent hands, defends man-to-man, supports the run despite a small frame, and has amazing instincts. Earl Thomas is turning some heads at Texas with his excellent understanding of being a ball hawker, but is not a great run supporter. Taylor Mays is the big name, but I hate his fundamentals and see him as either a Roy Williams type safety or a cover 2 linebacker. He sadly may be the first safety off the board over Thomas and Berry who I like a lot more. Reshad Jones could make it 4 safeties in the first round and the 2nd round could be equally as promising with guys like Darrell Stuckey and Morgan Burnett. Myron Rolle is the wildcard. He has top fifteen pick potential, but hasn’t played in a year and has aspirations of being a neurosurgeon. 

 

The 2010 draft could be one of the more talented ones of the decade, not because college football has more talented NFL caliber players right now, but because more of them will declare. There could be a rookie pay scale in 2011 so players could lose millions if they stay in school, especially quarterbacks, even if they actually improve their draft stock by returning. We could see a lot more redshirt sophomores and juniors declare this year than most years.

With Sam Bradford done for the year with shoulder surgery, Jimmy Clausen is set to be the first quarterback off the draft board, which could mean he goes #1 overall. Sam Bradford shouldn’t fall far even with his shoulder surgery because of how many teams need quarterbacks early in the draft, but he’ll need to prove his arm at his pro day and his individual workouts and show scouts why they fell in love with him in the first place. Ryan Mallett could declare this year and go in the first round on potential alone. He has more upside than any quarterback in college football right now, but is extremely raw. Jake Locker is likely not as beloved by scouts as he is by ESPN, but he could go top ten as well, though I think that is a mistake. Tim Tebow has his doubters and I’m not quite one of those, but he has a bunch of huge fans, Wayne Weaver, Jaguars owner, Jon Gruden, unemployed coach, as well as Tony Dungy. In fact, the Jaguars have all but confirmed that, if available, they will draft Tebow in an attempt to sell tickets. Jevan Snead hurt himself by going back to school this year with a high amount of interceptions and a low completion percentage. Colt McCoy is hyped by ESPN, but has a very slim chance of going in the first round. He has the upside to be a Chad Pennington or Kyle Orton type player, but his downside is pretty bad. Tony Pike has the potential to go in the first round, but I doubt he does. He, like McCoy, is likely a 2nd or 3rd round prospect in the eyes of the scouts.

The running back class starts with two speed burners, CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best. They both have good speed, but Best has more power in his legs and Spiller is a better pass catcher and kick returner. Jonathan Dwyer represents the best power back in the draft class and may be the most complete every down back prospect in the draft class, but he plays in a weird offense so that hurts him. Evan Royster could go in the 2nd round and Ryan Matthews is quickly rising thanks to the fact that he leads college football in rushing yards. Joe McKnight has good straight line speed, but needs to improve other things like changing directions and breaking tackles. Toby Gerhart has good size, but doesn’t move well enough to be much more than a goal line back or fullback. Noel Devine is extremely fast and has good stats in college, but he’s smaller than Darren Sproles and doesn’t have a ton of a future in the NFL.

The first two wide receivers off the board this year could be two very quiet relatively unknown players, which is rare for wide receivers. Damian Williams is known for his route running and his fundamentals and Brandon LaFell is known for his size, his hands, and his run blocking. Williams is the only receiver I see as a first round lock, but 5 could go in the first, including LaFell, big talent, big ego Dez Bryant, who is suspended for the season for violating an NCAA personal conduct rule, Arrelious Benn who has been a major disappointment this season and should not go in the first 2 rounds in my opinion, and Golden Tate, who has the big time stats, but lacks elite size. Eric Decker, despite his foot injury, should go in the first two rounds as well. Dezmon Briscoe is the wild card. I personally love him, but his route running is very raw. I think he projects as a Miles Austin or Brandon Marshall type player in the NFL, one of those receivers who is as hard to bring down as a running back. He should go in the first 3 rounds, but his shot at the first round is slim. I do not believe this should be the case. Jermaine Gresham could go higher than any wide receiver, despite being a tight end, but not playing his season due to knee surgery could hurt him. He needs to reestablish himself in workouts, but he leads a relatively weak tight end class along with Dennis Pitta who is NFL ready, but does not have a huge upside.

The offensive line is not my specialty and I rarely go off the popular path with this position, but I tend to like USC’s Charles Brown more than most. He lacks elite size, but he is an amazing pass protector. His footwork, for someone his age is amazing and is comparable to Ryan Clady’s when he declared. Clady was a rookie of the year candidate last year as a left tackle. Russell Okung is the most complete left tackle in the class. Bryan Bulaga has the athleticism, but falls down too often to be an elite pass protector. Trent Williams has struggled at left tackle this year and may be a right tackle longterm despite amazing athleticism. Bruce Campbell could go top ten, but his history of injuries scares me off. Ciron Black and Sam Young should both be solid right tackles in the league for a long time. Anthony Davis and Mike Johnson are hybrid guys. They could play tackle, but may project longterm as left guards. Both have good size and are amazing run blockers. Selvish Capers’ athleticism is getting him some looks in the 2nd or 3rd round as a left tackle prospect and Jason Fox is one of the good, young up and comers at this position. He could leap into the first round with some luck as a natural left tackle, but might be 2nd round pick. Adam Ulatoski could also be targeted in the 2nd round as a future left tackle. Mike Iupati is the best pure guard in this draft class and should go in the 2nd round, though I have yet to see him play because Idaho is never on TV. Kristofer O’Dowd headlines a weak center class. This could be a very full first 2 rounds in terms of offensive lineman.

 

 

This draft class could be one of the best in the last decade. You may not know the names of most of the stars of this class yet, but you will, especially on the defensive end. Carlos Dunlap is probably the best overall defensive prospect since Mario Williams. Gerald McCoy is probably the best overall defensive line prospect since Glenn Dorsey and he may even be a better and more complete under tackle than Dorsey because he has better measurable speed. Eric Berry is the best safety prospect to come out in the last 10-15 years. He probably isn’t going to be better than Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed when he comes into the league, or maybe even ever, but in terms of best safety prospect, that title goes to him. There are very few safeties you can use a top 5 pick on and live to tell the tale. Berry is one of them. Sticking with safeties, the supremely athletic Taylor Mays could also go in the top 10, or even the top 5 depending on where Al Davis is drafting. Even though Al Davis loves him, he is still an amazing prospect, especially athletic. He is 6-4 225 and could run a 40 in the 4.3s. I would say that, with the exception of possibly Aaron Curry, those 4 guys are better than every defensive prospect in the 2009 draft class. Joe Haden and Trevard Lindley should headline a very good cornerback class, which is a big difference between this class and 2009’s. Lawrence Marsh and Marvin Austin are huge upside defensive linemen who were big time prospects with great athleticism coming out of high school, but haven’t gotten things going in their first 2 years in college. With big seasons, they could rocket to the top of draft boards.

On the offensive end, things are just as promising. Everyone knows about the Big 3, Tim TebowColt McCoyand Sam Bradfordbut in the shadow is young Jevan Snead. He led a Mississippi team that was not supposed to accomplish much to an amazing season as just a sophomore. Some scouts are already comparing him and his arm to Matt Stafford, this year’s #1. Snead isn’t going to go #1 because of the strength of this class, but the Stafford comparison isn’t far off. Many people are down on McCoy and Tebow because of the style of offensives they play. I like both of them, Tebow more so, but I still believe McCoy could become a pro bowler in the right system. Very few guys complete 77% of their passes and this includes guys who run spread offenses. As for Bradford, he is the real deal. He is the best quarterback prospect, in my opinion, since Eli Manning, and within his first few years he could emerge as a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback.

Jermaine Gresham is one of the best tight end prospects of the decade. He isn’t as good of a run blocker as Brandon Pettigrew or as athletic as Vernon Davis, but he makes plays all over the field and overall is an excellent tight end and a quarterback’s best friend. He is better than Jeremy Shockey was coming out of Miami and on par with Kellen Winslow in terms of the amount he could be sought after early in the draft. He’ll probably be a better tight end than either Shockey or Winslow in the long term. Running backs in this class are nothing special, but Jonathan Dwyer and CJ Spiller could become very successful backs in this league. Joe McKnight and Javhid Best both have blazing speed and will be available in the late 1st, early 2nd round range drawing them hundreds of comparisons to Chris Johnson between now and draft day 2010. I don’t see a lot of sleepers in the running back class, but I like DeMarco Murray who should be available in the 2nd round. Overall, it’s a pretty thin running back class. Arrelious Benn headlines a lackluster wide receiver class, but he should be a solid top 10 pick. Guys like Bryan BulagaRussell OkungTrent WilliamsCiron Black, and Sam Young could go in the first round as offensive tackles.