Before reading this, it would be a good idea to brief yourself on my Fantasy Quarterbacks article

Drafting a backup quarterback is an often overlooked, but it can actually have a huge impact on your fantasy team. With any luck, you’ll only have to use your backup quarterback once throughout the season (your QB1’s bye week). How can you make sure that your team doesn’t miss a beat with your QB2 in the lineup? Make sure he has an easy matchup during the bye week of your start. For the sake of this article, we’ll call an easy matchup, Detroit, St. Louis, Kansas City, Miami, Cleveland, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. All of those 8 teams should be among the worst at stopping the pass this year and with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions, they were all the worst against the pass last year as well. In order to be listed on this list, a player must not be a part of my top 15 quarterbacks. We’re talking about players who are most likely going to be available when it comes time to take your backup QB (11^th-13^th round).

Week 4

QB1s on bye: Tony Romo, Brett Favre

Vs. Seattle: Sam Bradford/AJ Feeley

If you have Romo or Favre, you may be out of luck in terms of using this technique to find a backup. I wouldn’t feel safe with either of these quarterbacks as my backup. Bradford hasn’t won the job, hasn’t played since last October, hasn’t run a pro style offense before, and has a poor supporting cast. Feeley has done decently in the past, but with significantly better supporting casts. As with Bradford, you also don’t know if Feeley will win the job. Stick to drafting a QB2 by traditional means if you have Romo or Favre, and by traditional means, I mean BPA.

Week 5

QB1s on bye: Tom Brady

Vs. Jacksonville: Trent Edwards/Brian Brohm/Ryan Fiztpatrick

Vs. Buffalo: David Garrard

Vs. Cleveland: Matt Ryan

Vs. St. Louis: Matt Stafford

Vs. Detroit: Sam Bradford/AJ Feeley

If you have Brady as your QB1, you’re in luck. This strategy will work perfectly. I would suggest staying away from the mess in Buffalo, as well as Bradford/Feeley and Ryan might not be available as a QB2 in most leagues, but Stafford vs. the Rams looks very promising, and for a safer, more proven choice, try Garrard vs. Buffalo.

Week 6

QB1s on bye: Carson Palmer

Vs. Cleveland: Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon

Vs. Oakland: Alex Smith

Vs. Jacksonville: Vince Young

I expect Leftwich to win the job in Pittsburgh for the first 6 weeks (while Big Ben is suspended), but he could be risky. Dixon could beat him out or steal the job by then, and there’s a slim chance Big Ben gets his suspension shortened, in which case Leftwich would be on the bench. If everything goes well, Leftwich should have a decent week against the Browns. Smith vs. Oakland and Vince Young vs. Jacksonville are safer bets though.

Week 7

QB1s on bye: Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub

Vs. Jacksonville: Matt Cassel

Vs. Miami: Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon

Vs. St. Louis: Josh Freeman

Vs. Seattle: Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson

Vs. Oakland: Kyle Orton/Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow

I would stay away from the Denver mess, with all of the other options. Orton should be the starter week 7, but there’s no shortage of guys who could steal the job by then, and he doesn’t have a lot to work with in the receiving corps. Leinart and Anderson are risky too, and not just because both aren’t very good. We still don’t know who is the starter there. As I said with Leftwich under the week 6 write up, there’s a lot of variables that would go into him being the starter week 7, and I wouldn’t take the chance this week with two other good options. Cassel’s best game in 2009 was against the Jaguars and I think he should have another solid week against their miserable secondary this year. Freeman vs. St. Louis is still my favorite of the group, but it’s close.

Week 8

QB1s with byes: Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb

Vs. Kansas City: Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick/Brian Brohm

Vs. St. Louis: Jimmy Clausen/Matt Moore

Stay away from the Buffalo mess, but I do expect Moore to still be the starter week 8 against St. Louis and that figures to be promising. John Fox always gives vets the first shot at jobs so unless Moore struggles out of the gate, he’ll still be the guy week 8.

Week 9

QB1s with byes: Donovan McNabb

Vs. Detroit: Mark Sanchez

Vs. Oakland: Matt Cassel

Oakland doesn’t have the best pass defense, but Cassel was 43 for 73 for 457 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 picks against the Raiders last year in two starts. Doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. I’d go with Sanchez if I was a McNabb owner.

Week 10

QB1s with byes: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Jason Campbell

Vs. Detroit: Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick/Brian Brohm

Vs. Cleveland: Mark Sanchez

Vs. Miami: Vince Young

Vs. Kansas City: Kyle Orton/Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow

Vs. Seattle: Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson

Vs. St. Louis: Alex Smith

With so many choices, I would rather go with the ones I was pretty sure would have a job on week 10. Sanchez, Young, and Smith all make great choices for owners of Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, and Campbell.

Now, this isn’t the only QB2 strategy. With QB1s you aren’t too sure about (meaning low end QB1s) it is often best to pair them with a high upside QB2, in case your low end QB1 starts playing like a QB2. Chances are, between your low end QB1 and your high upside QB2, you’ll have one functional starter without having to draft a quarterback too early. For the sake of this, I’ll call Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell, Eli Manning, and Kevin Kolb (QBs 12-15) my low end QB1s.

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Josh Freeman

I am putting these three together. All 3 are 2009 1^st round picks who struggled mightly as rookies. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll be bad this year. We’ve seen plenty of quarterbacks struggle as rookies (see Peyton Manning) and bounce back and have good career. It’s anyone’s guess which of these three will break out this year, but that’s the fun. All 3 of these guys have the upside to have QB1 type seasons. Some notes, Freeman has reportedly put the most work in this offseason, Sanchez has the best supporting cast, and in my opinion Stafford has the best arm. Freeman is also going significantly later than Stafford and Sanchez in fantasy drafts, so he could be a better value.

Alex Smith

Vince Young

I’m grouping this pair together because both are former top 3 draft picks that took over midseason last year and did decently. If either one can start all 16 games and improve their play a bit over last year, he’d be a QB1 type fantasy player. Spread the stats from Young’s 10 starts over 16 games and you get 3006 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 picks. Spread the stats from Smith’s 10 starts over 16 games and you get 3430 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 18 picks.

Chad Henne

Henne had 274 completions in 451 attempts for 2878 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 14 picks last year, in 13 and a half games. Do some crazy math and you get 331 for 535 for 3411 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 17 picks. How much better could Chad Henne be this year than last year? Take a look at Kyle Orton. Going from Chicago to Denver, Orton went from a mediocre receiving corps, to a mediocre receiving corps plus Brandon Marshall. Orton threw for 830 more yards, 3 more scores, without having any more picks. There are plenty more reasons why Henne should improve with Marshall than was the case with Orton. Henne has a stronger arm to hit Marshall downfield. Henne isn’t learning a new scheme. Henne is going into only his 2^nd year as a starter, 3^rd year in the league, and figures to get better simply from experience. Now, some of you may say, yeah, but Orton threw 76 more times between 2008 and 2009. This is true, but this is also a result of playing with Marshall. When you have a true deep threat, teams tend to pass more. Miami will pass more this year, which means more attempts for Henne. More attempts, more experience, better effectiveness, Henne should definitely be on your high upside list. I don’t have him listed as a top 15 quarterback, but he could end up there and if you have a low end QB1 (McNabb, Eli Manning, Cutler), Henne would make a nice backup.

Matt Moore

Is he unproven? Sure. But against fairly talented competition, Moore had 990 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 pick in 5 starts last year. Spread that out 16 games and you get 3169 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 3 picks. I’ll assume the picks will be higher, but still. If he can hold off Clausen for the starting job all year and avoid falling into the same trap Delhomme fell into (chuck the ball deep to Smith every play), he could be a solid fantasy option. And if he loses his job, just drop him and pick up Clausen. Clausen is a very NFL ready player, taking over a good supporting cast. Think Matt Ryan 2008. 

 

 

 

Only deals involving 2010 1^st round picks

Miami Heat trade the 18^th pick (PG Eric Bledsoe) and SG Daequan Cook to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 32^nd pick

Deal for Miami: A pure salary dump, they dump the 3 million or so they would have had to pay the 18^th pick, as well as Cook’s 2.2 million dollar cap number, and get the 32^nd pick, which won’t command nearly as much money. They save about 4 million in this deal and I don’t think they get all that worse of a package. The difference between the 18^th pick and the 32^nd pick is not as much as you’d think and Cook is a decent contributor, but easily replaceable. This deal sets them up to do a lot more in free agency, in terms of possibly adding the trinity, LeBron, Wade, and Bosh.

Grade: A

Deal for Oklahoma City: Using some of their salary cap room to add vets, the Thunder get Cook, who can play a role for them, and they get him relatively cheap. Excluding the fact that they later moved the 18^th pick for a 2011 1^st rounder from the Clippers, I still think this is a solid move.

Grade: B

Chicago Bulls trade the 17^th pick (PF Kevin Seraphin) and PG Kirk Hinrich to the Washington Wizards for cash

Deal for Chicago: Pure salary dump. If this move is the one that allows them to sign Bosh and LeBron (which it looks like it could), it’s genius. They may still need to move Luol Deng first before they can afford both of them if Bosh demands a max deal. Hinrich was nothing more than Rose’s backup and the 17^th pick is not as valuable as it sounds. Mid first round picks are role players and projects (in Seraphin’s case, it’s project).

Grade: A

Deal for Washington: I kind of see what they were trying to do here. They figured no one would want to sign in Washington in free agency anyway, for fear or being shot, so they used their cap space to trade for a player and got a draft pick in the process. Not a horrible idea, but did they need Hinrich? They already have John Wall at Gilbert Arenas, at point guard, plus Foye who can play there. Did they need another? 9 million dollars of cap space is a lot and this may take them out of the sweepstakes for getting a player like David Lee, who I would much rather want than Hinrich. Seraphin is widely considered a big project, but he does save this deal from being a complete F.

Grade: D

New Orleans Hornets trade the 11^th pick (C Cole Aldrich) and SG Morris Peterson to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 21^st pick (PF Craig Brackins) and the 26^th pick (SF Quincy Pondexter)

Deal for New Orleans: There wasn’t anyone the Hornets were enamored with at 11 and they didn’t really need a starting caliber player, but rather some wing depth and interior depth, so they traded down, got two picks, filled two needs with those two picks, and dumped Morris Peterson’s salary in the process.

Grade: A

Deal for Oklahoma City: They needed a center and Aldrich was better than any center they could have gotten with one of their later picks, but I don’t think Aldrich was quite worth what they gave up, two first rounders, and 6.6 million of cap space. This takes them out of the David Lee sweepstakes, a sweepstakes they looked like the favorite to win. They could have gotten a decent center project or two with their later picks.

Grade: C

 

Portland Trailblazers trade SF Martell Webster to the Minnesota Timberwolves for SF Ryan Gomes and the 16^th pick (SF Luke Babbitt)

Deal for Portland: Last year, Webster scored 9.4 points per game, 3.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.55 blocks, and 0.49 steals, shot 40.5% from the field, 37.3% from three, and 81.3% from the line. Gomes, who plays the same position, had 10.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.82 steals, 0.21 steals, shot 44.7% from the field, 37.2% from three, and 82.5% from the line. Webster is younger and may have a little bit more upside as a former upside pick, but if he hasn’t come around by now, I don’t think he will. I may have done this deal straight up, Webster for Gomes. Getting the 16^th pick as a throw in only makes it sweeter.

Grade: A

Deal for Minnesota: Basically you’re trading a decent player for a decent player at the same position and throwing in a mid first round pick. Why? The only thing that keeps this from a fail is Webster’s upside, but he is 23 with 5 years experience so it may be time to give up on him as someone who’s going to be a good player in this league.

Grade: D

Oklahoma City Thunder trade the 18^th pick (PG Eric Bledsoe) to the Los Angeles Clippers for a 2011 1^st round pick

Deal for Oklahoma City: They got this pick when they moved up from the early 2^nd to the 18^th pick in the first, in the Miami Daequan Cook salary dump, and now they may have turned it into a 2011 lottery pick, a class that figures to be more talented than this one, because the Clippers don’t look like a playoff team in 2011.

Grade: A

Deal for Los Angeles Clippers: I get the need for a backup point guard with Baron Davis’ health issues, but I don’t see the need to take one here and give up what could be a future lottery pick. They could have gotten a solid one in free agency or the 2^nd round. However, if they are able to pull off a Baron Davis salary dump deal with someone and can entice a max contract free agent to LA, this will look brilliant. I don’t see that happening though.

Grade: C

New Jersey Nets trade the 27^th pick (SG Jordan Crawford) and the 31^st pick (C Tibor Pleiss) to the Atlanta Hawks for the 24^th pick (SF Damion James)

Deal for New Jersey: James is one of the more overlooked players in this draft class and I can see him being a starter for this team longterm, so I see why they moved up, but they may have given up a bit too much. The 31^st pick is a lot to move up 3 spots from 27^th to 24^th. James may have been there at 27 and even if he wasn’t, bad teams that need a lot of things should not get this enamored about a guy who slipped to the mid 20s.

Grade: B

Deal for Atlanta: Atlanta doesn’t have a lot of guys under contract for next year so they turn one pick into two and win in terms of value. The NBA does not have a trade value chart like the NFL, but if they did, the Hawks would be clear winners here.

Grade: A

Memphis Grizzlies trade the 25^th pick (SG Dominique Jones) to the Dallas Mavericks for cash

Deal for Memphis: I don’t like the concept of giving away a pick for nothing, just so you don’t have to pay the pick, but I can kind of see why the Grizzlies did it in this situation. They had two other firsts and not a ton of needs.

Grade: B

Deal for Dallas: I don’t see how Jones fits into the mix as a Maverick, unless there’s a trade that clears up their backcourt, but you’re getting a good player for pretty much nothing and it’s not like the Mavericks are pressed for cash.

Grade: A

 

 

21. New Orleans Hornets- PF Craig Brackins

Another pick acquired in a trade, Brackins is a solid pick for a Hornets team that needed interior depth. Brackins strikes me as a Channing Frye type player at the next level, not a power guy, but a guy who can hit the 15-18 foot jumper with ease. He might not be the exact type of big man I would have liked to have seen them take, but he gives them depth, he gives them an interesting option on the pick and roll with Chris Paul, and he fits the range.

Grade: B

22. Portland Trailblazers- SG Elliot Williams

Williams gives them a nice combo guard and bench scorer type player, though I think they would have been better off taking a guy like Dominique Jones, Willie Warren, or even Terrico White to fill that need. Plus, I can’t say he filled their biggest need, interior depth. Not best available, not their biggest need, not the best pick.

Grade: C

23. Washington Wizards- SF Trevor Booker

Grading as if they drafted him 23^rd, not the Timberwolves who originally drafted him and then traded him, this is still a very bad pick. Booker was not a first round prospect and I can find plenty of people who agree with me. He didn’t even really fill a need as the Wizards still badly need interior help and a shotblocker/rebounder.

Grade: D

24. New Jersey Nets- SF Damion James

Acquired in a trade from Atlanta, the Nets take James. James can compete for the starting small forward job on this team right away and if not, he can fill a role off the bench. James doesn’t need a lot of work and I think he was one of the more underappreciated players in this draft class.

Grade: A

25. Dallas Mavericks- SG Dominique Jones

Jones is a good player fitting of this spot, but with guys like Jason Kidd, Jose Juan Barea, Rodrique Beaubois, Jason Terry, DeShawn Stevenson and Caron Butler all capable of playing guard very well, did they need another guard? I won’t give this a bad grade, because I can see 2 or three of those guys being packaged and shipped somewhere in a sign and trade for a big time star. A package of Caron Butler’s 2011 expiring contract, Jason Terry’s 2012 expiring contract, Beaubois, and Erick Dampier’s 2011 expiring contract could be enticing for a team with a superstar free agent and that would make this pick look genius.

Grade: B

 

26. New Orleans Hornets- SF Quincy Pondexter

Pondexter gives the Hornets an athletic, long swingman to add some athleticism and defense to their wings. I thought that was their biggest need coming into this draft.

Grade: A

27. Atlanta Hawks- SG Jordan Crawford

It looks like Joe Johnson is leaves and Crawford will help patch that holes in one of two ways. He could start at shooting guard and allow 2010 6^th man of the year Jamal Crawford to stay in that 6^th man role. Or, he could take over Crawford’s 6^th man role and allow Crawford to play shooting guard.

Grade: A

28. Memphis Grizzlies- PG Grievis Vasquez

The Grizzlies needed a good backup point guard and Vazquez was one of the best point guards available, but not the best.

Grade: B

29. Orlando Magic- C Daniel Orton

Nothing wrong with taking Orton 29^th. I was glad to see he fell this far. He didn’t play much at Kentucky last year because of his offensive struggles, but if he had stayed another year and worked on his offensive game, and taken the starting center role, he could have been a top 5 pick in 2011. He is a former top recruit. Taking him in the top 15 would have been a big mistake, but 29^th is the right range. That being said, if he fulfills his potential in Orlando, he’s still a center. That may be the one position they didn’t need with Superman Dwight Howard and highly paid backup Marcin Gortat. They could have used this pick to get an NBA ready role player (Darington Hobson) who would help them try to win the East next year, but they didn’t.

Grade: D

30. Minnesota Timberwolves- SF Lazar Heyward

Last year, the Timberwolves spent the 5^th and 6^th picks on point guards. This year, they added three small forwards in the first round, Wesley Johnson (4^th) Martell Webster (trade) and now Heyward. Johnson was a good pick at the time as it was a need and Webster I can kind of see, as he is a nice backup who can play some 2 guard, but a 3^rd small forward. That doesn’t make sense. They still need a big shot blocking center and a scorer/create your own shot type player. I wouldn’t want any part of this franchise if I was Ricky Rubio.

Grade: D

 

 

11. Oklahoma City Thunder- C Cole Aldrich

This pick was acquired in a trade with New Orleans and I’ll grade the trade for both teams after I grade all the picks, but for now I’m just going to grade this pick straight up, as if the Thunder used the 11^th pick on Aldrich. Aldrich is a player that I don’t think will be anything special at the next level. He can do some things well, block shots, grab rebounds, hit the jumper, but he’s not a true power big man and there isn’t really one thing he specializes in. He’s exactly what the Thunder need however, a defensive big man that doesn’t need the ball and he’s probably better than any center they have on the team, but he wasn’t worth the 11^th pick.

Grade: B

12. Memphis Grizzlies- SG Xavier Henry

Not a bad pick. Henry provides a talented scorer off the bench that the Grizzlies lacked last year and he can play the wing for the Grizzlies should Rudy Gay leave as a free agent, but was he the 12^th best player in this draft? I don’t know about that. He’s a good scorer in flashes, but he’s inconsistent and pretty one dimensional. He’s also not going to be a starter for them any time soon unless Gay leaves so you’re using the 12^th pick on a bench player, which may or may not be a smart idea, but ideally you want starters in the top 12-14 picks.

Grade: B

13. Toronto Raptors- PF Ed Davis

Great pick. For the 2^nd year in a row the Raptors have drafted a very high upside player in hopes of being able to have a face of the franchise type player after Bosh leaves, which it looks like he will. Davis is raw, but still young, so that’s fine and I had him as one of the ten best players in this draft class so the value is good. He actually fills a need even if Bosh leaves because they were looking for more muscle inside.

Grade: A

14. Houston Rockets- PF Patrick Patterson

The Houston Rockets team is full of players like Patterson and that’s why they were competitive last year without Yao Ming. This was a weak draft class so while Patterson won’t be a star in this league, I think he would have been well worth a top ten pick. In this new era of power forwards where it’s less about size and strength and more about rebounding and hustle, Patterson will fit in just fine. He can also hit an outside shot. He gives them more options inside with Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, and possibly Yao Ming and I think Patterson will be a starter for this team somewhere sometime next year, whether it be as a 4, a power 3, or an undersized 5, or a mix of all 3.

Grade: A

15. Milwaukee Bucks- C Larry Sanders

This happens every year. A team takes a big man, who is very raw, on potential alone and nothing happens. Sanders has a 7-7 wingspan, but he is challenged offensively and has only been playing basketball for 6 years. That’s raw. He also has a very skinny frame and will need to bulk up. I don’t think he’ll be worth this pick in a few years, but he does fill a bit of a need as a shot blocker if he, offensively, can work his way into the rotation.

Grade: C

 

16. Portland Trailblazers- SF Luke Babbitt

Trailblazers got him in a trade, but still, I’m going to judge this pick for what it is. Small forward was the Blazers biggest need area and Babbitt was one of the best available. What more do you want from a team?

Grade: A

17. Washington Wizards- PF Kevin Sheraphin

I’ll tell you the truth, I don’t know very much about this kid at all. I know he was projected to be a late first round pick and that he can come over to play now if he wants, but based on how few Europeans have panned out in recent years and how weak of a European class this was, as said by experts, I’ll be skeptical.

Grade: B

18. Los Angeles Clippers- PG Eric Bledsoe

I don’t see why the Clippers had to trade what could possibly be a lottery pick in 2011 to get their backup point guard, but I’m not grading the trade, I’m grading the pick. Bledsoe is part of a weak point guard class and since they did need a backup point guard, they could have done a lot worse things than reaching for a guy who probably should have gone mid 20s. They don’t really have anything behind injury prone Baron Davis.

Grade: B

19. Boston Celtics- PG Avery Bradley

I wanted to see the Celtics take someone who can help right away, not an undersized shooting guard who is solid on defense and can put the ball in the hoop, but will have to convert to being a point guard at 6-2, something he is far from being right now. He won’t be able to play extensive minutes early and even if he matures into an extensive minutes type player, it’ll be at point guard, where they already have Rajon Rondo, and they should have him for a while.

Grade: C

20. San Antonio Spurs- SG James Anderson

Anderson struggles defensively, but he can be a solid sparkplug off the bench who can shoot the ball well from the outside. He struggles to create his own shot, but he’s exactly the type of players the Spurs needed off the bench, someone who can hit a shot, play a role, and play a role immediately.

Grade: A

 

1. Washington Wizards- PG John Wall

Wall has been called a once or twice in a decade prospect by many, many experts. Experts have been wrong before, but everything I’ve seen of Wall leads me to believe that these experts won’t be wrong. He’s got to work on his maturity and leadership at the point guard position, but that will come with age, as it did for Derrick Rose, who has, in two years, matured into the leader and the face of the Chicago Bulls. He’s got to work on his outside shot and cutting down his turnovers, but his mid range game is already great and he’s a fierce penetrator to the basket with an NBA ready body. I like Evan Turner as a prospect as well, but the Wizards had to go with the potential superstar here. Wall doesn’t fill a major need, but you never know with Gilbert Arenas, and Turner didn’t fill a major need either and reaching for a big man like DeMarcus Cousins or Derrick Favors to fill a need would have been a big, big mistake for this franchise.

Grade: A

2. Philadelphia 76ers- SF Evan Turner

I would have liked to have seen them move down to get a big, but I’ll assume for the sake of this grade that they tried and could not and in that case, they had to take Turner. Wall is the superstar potential kid in this class, but Turner is the do everything sidekick that will be almost as valuable to a contender as their superstar. You’ve heard of five tool outfielders in baseball, this kid is a 5 tool basketball player, shooting, driving, distributing, defense, and rebounding. He doesn’t fill their biggest need, but he’s going to be a lot more valuable to them than a guy like Favors or Cousins would have been.

Grade: A

3. New Jersey Nets- PF Derrick Favors

Once again I’m not going to argue with this pick. Favors is not going to be a superstar in this league, but the Nets couldn’t have really gotten a superstar type player with this pick because in my eyes, this class had one future #1 option, one strong future #2 option, and the rest were #2 options or worse. Favors will be a solid #2 big man on a good team someday, though he is raw, and, positionally, he fills their biggest need.

Grade: A

4. Minnesota Timberwolves- SF Wesley Johnson

I would have liked to have seen them move up to get someone who can do something more offensively, or move down for value and an offensive minded swingman, but assuming they couldn’t do that, I think this was the best they could go. Johnson is offensive issues, but he’s going to help them on defense. I don’t know that he’ll persuade Ricky Rubio to come over as moving up for Turner or moving down for Xavier Henry would have, but he was the best pick they could make at this spot. DeMarcus Cousins would have been a mistake and he would have been the only other player to fit this slot. They already have Kevin Love and Al Jefferson inside. They need a defensive minded big, not another inside scorer.

Grade: A

5. Sacramento Kings- C DeMarcus Cousins

Not special to say here. Cousins fills their need inside. They traded for Samuel Dalembert, but mostly for his expiring contract. Cousins was the best available player here and fills a big need. I think Cousins has to be the early favorite for rookie of the year this year, if he can stay in shape, out of trouble, and healthy. This is exactly what I thought they’d do in this situation and it’s exactly what I would do.

Grade: A

 

6. Golden State Warriors- PF Ekpe Udoh

The Warriors’ idea with this pick was to add size and to get better defensively, and I like that idea, but you’re not going to convince me that Udoh was the 6^th best player in this draft class. Udoh is raw offensively and he’s 23 years old. He and North Carolina’s Ed Davis are very similar players, good defensively and on the boards, but raw offensively. However, Davis is 21 and it’s perfectly alright to use a top 6 pick on a defensive minded big that’s a bit raw offensively if he’s 21. 23 is a different story. 23 is pushing it a little. 23 is the point where you maybe start to say, well, he hasn’t developed into a good offensive big man at this point. I don’t know if he ever will. I don’t see why, with two similar talents, you take the older of the two.

Grade: C

7. Detroit Pistons- C Greg Monroe

Another case of taking the wrong big I think. The Pistons really needed a big physical presence inside and Monroe has a reputation for being a bit soft inside. Adding size and strength was their biggest need this offseason and I’m glad to see that they didn’t take a guy like Al-Farouq Aminu. Aminu probably would have been best available, but wouldn’t have filled a need at all. They have way too much depth on the wings anyway and I don’t buy Aminu being a power forward at the NBA level. Still, I think Davis would have been the right pick here.

Grade: C

8. Los Angeles Clippers- SF Al-Farouq Aminu

I had been mocking this pick for months and I don’t think any mock drafter with half a brain had Aminu slipping past here. Aminu is best available, or at least one of the best available, and he plays the only position that the Clippers really have a hole at in their starting lineup, assuming Blake Griffin bounces back from injury, and in the top 10 if you’re not drafting players that you think are starting caliber and that you can realistically get into the starting lineup sometime soon, you’re doing something wrong. Aminu is the type of player that can help you without having the ball in his hands and the Clippers already had enough playmakers.

Grade: A

9. Utah Jazz- SF Gordon Heyward

I had been hearing small forward here before the draft, though I expected Luke Babbitt. I don’t really think Heyward is the 9^th best player in this class, in fact, he would have been lucky to be taken in the first round before the NCAA tournament. As good as he was there, it was only 6 games and I don’t think those 6 games are enough to move a player up from the 2^nd round to the top 10. I don’t necessarily think that Babbitt or even Paul George would have been the right pick here anyway. I would have gone with a big like Ed Davis or Patrick Patterson. I don’t know that Paul Millsap is the right guy to start to power forward when Carlos Boozer leaves and it looks very unlikely that he’ll stay.

Grade: B

10. Indiana Pacers- SF Paul George

Unlike the NFL Draft, we almost made it through the top 10 without me being completely confused by a pick. Does George have a ton of upside here, yeah, but you would like to take a player in the top 10 that’s not completely raw. George doesn’t have an NBA frame right now; he’s not NBA ready and not ready to play big minutes. Plus, they already have Danny Granger at small forward and that’s pretty much the only position they didn’t need. George can play shooting guard, but he’s not a natural two and two guard wasn’t a huge need either. They need a point guard or a big man here and since they’re weren’t really any good point guards available in this range, I think a big man should have been the pick.

Grade: D 

When predicting a draft, its important to know what certain drafters and organizations tend to draft

San Diego Chargers- Known for being a bit unpredictable when drafting, but seem to enjoy taller players, building from the outside in, and proven college guys.

Denver Broncos- Not much is known about John Elway’s drafting tendencies, but John Fox likes high character players and hates pass catching tight ends.

Oakland Raiders- Put an extra emphasis on speed and size, actually scratch that, only puts an emphasis on speed and size, Darrius Heyward Bey is the greatest player of all time

Kansas City Chiefs- Come from the New England school of drafting only they aren’t quite as good, enjoy building in the trenches, especially defensive line, known to go with positional value over need

Indianapolis Colts- Strong believers in the best available player theory, much more likely to draft offensive early rather than defensive

Jacksonville Jaguars- Badly need to sell tickets so big name guys are going to be high on their radar, otherwise they are big fans of the best available player theory and also enjoy drafting a player at a position they just drafted

Houston Texans- 3 of their last 4 first round picks were used an offensive or defensive lineman, so there is a strong tendency to build from the inside out

Tennessee Titans- Put extra value on building in the trenches and adding to their defense, though their last two first round picks were used on offensive players

Cincinnati Bengals- Enjoy drafting players with a criminal record, no character, no problem, all they care about is football talent and potential

Pittsburgh Steelers- Tend to go with best available player and also enjoy watching Big Ben get hit many times and not doing anything about the offensive line, enjoy bigger offensive lineman rather than smaller

Baltimore Ravens- Often ignore positional needs for the best available player

Cleveland Browns- Enjoy drafting low on the positional value chart and are known for getting ripped off in draft day trades, last year traded the rights to a franchise quarterback for the rights to a center, as well as a free safety, a 3-4 defensive end, and a few later picks

New England Patriots- Hate to draft in their assigned spot and will make about 35 draft day trades in an effort to someday have every pick in the entire 2^nd round, prefer to draft in the trenches, and do not fall in love with prospects and will never trade up to get a guy, a bit afraid to draft rush linebackers, known for making smart draft moves

New York Jets- Presumably like to draft defense based on Rex Ryan’s history as a defensive coordinator, but there isn’t much evidence either way. Drafted a quarterback in the first round last year because it was a huge need and were not afraid to move up 12 spots to get their guy, also later traded many picks for the rights to Shonn Greene so a history of falling in love with players is there

Miami Dolphins- Speed over size, fundamentals over athleticism, build in trenches, its been the Parcells way for years

Buffalo Bills- New regime, no idea about drafting tendency, though securing a franchise quarterback would likely be high on their list

Arizona Cardinals- Offense over defense, value over need

San Francisco 49ers- “I want winners!” -Mike Singletary

Seattle Seahawks- New regime so it can be tough to tell, especially since no GM is currently in place, but Pete Carroll, like college coaches before him, will likely put a greater emphasis on guys who were good college players, and also put added value on guys they worked with at the college level

St. Louis Rams- Big fans of positional value upstairs and their coach puts an extra emphasis on defense and a good pass rush as shown by his years as a pass rush minded coordinator with the Giants

New Orleans Saints- Big fans of best available, known to stock pile wide receivers

Atlanta Falcons- Draft for need rather than positional value, known to reach a bit, and also known to draft up for a guy they like

Carolina Panthers- Known to trade away their first round pick, and build in the trenches, offensive line over defensive line

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Committed to building around their young quarterback, but their head coach is also a defensive minded guy who lacks a good defense right now, so defense could be high on his list as well

Minnesota Vikings- Don’t put a huge stock on guys with character issues, big lineman over faster more athletic lineman, known to take risks

Green Bay Packers- Straight off of the draft board, best available always, regardless of needs

Chicago Bears- Defensive over offensive, haven’t had a ton of early picks in a while

Detroit Lions- Value over need every time, might be committed to building around Matt Stafford, but I’m not sure

Dallas Cowboys- The bigger the name the better, also enjoy ignoring needs and drafting many guys at the same positional, would rather eat bugs than draft defensive backs, especially early, big offensive lineman over smaller lineman

Philadelphia Eagles- Build from the inside out, enjoy large offensive lineman, hate to draft running backs

New York Giants- Big fans of drafting best available, also enjoy building their defensive line

Washington Redskins- Owner like the big name, head coach will be looking for his own quarterback, like to pick some random running back late and run him 300 times the next season then repeat process, athletic lineman over bigger lineman 

 

I really don’t like signing almost any middle linebacker to a 5 year 42.5 million dollar contract, especially one like D’Qwell Jackson who played just 6 games from 2009-2010. It’s a serious risk to give him a contract in the neighborhood of Patrick Willis, Jon Beason, Karlos Dansby, and David Harris and I’m not sure he’d even be worth that if he wasn’t an injury risk. The one redeeming quality of this deal is that all the guaranteed money (10.4 million) is in the first 2 years so if he disappoints in anyway, they can cut him after the 2013 season.

Grade: D 

 

 

 

Running Back

Boise State

5-9 223

Draft board overall prospect rank: #30

Draft board overall running back rank: #2

Overall rating: 81 (borderline 1^st/2^nd round)

40 time: 4.47

Games watched: Boise State/Toledo, Boise State/Fresno State, Boise State/Arizona State

Positives

·         Runs with great pad level

·         Incredibly tough

·         Strong, powerful, tough to tackle in open field (28 reps of 225)

·         Good size (5-9 223)

·         Gets low and uses his blockers well

·         Good patient and vision

·         Tough, gritty player who fights for every last yard

·         Shifty, elusive player who cuts well

·         Good timed speed (4.47)

·         Two years of great production (2010: 201 carries for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns 2011: 263 carries for 1299 yards and 16 touchdowns)

·         Great hands out of the backfield (28 catches in each of last 2 seasons)

·         Above average pass protector

·         Intelligent player who picks up blitzes very well for his age

·         High character, high motor player

·         Good work ethic and in great shape

·         Well and able special teamer

·         Returned a kickoff to the house in 2011 (while averaging 34 yards per return) and was one of Boise State’s best special teamers in 2008

·         Versatile athlete who played some cornerback in 2009 before moving back to running back

·         True 3 down back who can contribute on the 4^th down (special teams) if you want

·         Good goal line back

Negatives

·         A lot of tread on his tires already (617 career carries)

·         Senior season was inferior to junior season

·         Struggled with injuries as a senior, looked sluggish at times

·         Violent running style could be the cause of future injuries

·         Lacks elite burst

·         Doesn’t play quite as fast as his 40 time (4.47)

·         Lacks breakaway speed

·         Didn’t play an elite level of competition

Comparison: Mark Ingram

When I watched Martin against Toledo and Fresno State, I put him into that borderline 3^rd/4^th round range with power backs like Temple’s Bernard Pierce and Utah State’s Robert Turbin. This was because I thought he was just a power back. I was impressed with his toughness and grittiness and pad level to break tackles, but I didn’t see a whole lot of speed and explosion.

He had to break a ton of tackles because the defense could close on him so quickly. He had 70 yards on 19 carries against Toledo and 94 yards on 16 carries (with 55 of them one on carry) against Fresno State. He was averaging 4 yards per carry against weak competition and I didn’t see him as a potential feature back type in the NFL.

Turns out, he was playing hurt, further proving his toughness and grittiness. This injury did cost him a game against TCU (Boise State’s only loss of the season), but once he returned, he was much better. He finished with 115 carries for 543 yards and 7 touchdowns in his last 4 games and started looking more like the player he was in 2010 when he rushed for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns on 201 carries.

I was particularly impressed with him against Arizona State, not too shabby an opponent, in Boise State’s bowl game. He started the game with a kickoff return to the house, but that wasn’t what impressed me. He continued to be a ferocious bowling ball of a running back, breaking tackles like Maurice Jones Drew or Ray Rice, but he showed more speed and burst. He still wasn’t elite in that area, but it was much better. He rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries, despite not breaking a gain of more than 21 yards all game. I felt he could be a steal on day 3 if he still fell that far.

However, he won’t fall that far. Looks like everyone else has taken notice that he’s healthy. Driven by a strong Combine performance, where he essentially benched his body weight (225) 28 times, ran a 4.47 40 at 5-9 223, up 8 pounds from his playing weight, and impressed in position drills, particularly as a blocker and a receiver (he also had 56 catches from 2010-2011).

Now he’s a legitimate early to mid day 2 prospect and is in the running with David Wilson and Lamar Miller to be the 2^nd back off the board after Trent Richardson. He probably won’t fall out of the 2^nd round. I have him 2^nd behind Richardson because, while I think Miller and Wilson are more explosive, Martin is bigger and tougher and will be better on 3^rd down. He looks like a true 3 down back right away and he can even contribute on special teams as well. A jack of all traits, Wilson played gunner on special teams, cornerback on defense, and kick returner on special teams, in addition to running back in his 4 years at Boise State.

As a prospect, I compare him to Mark Ingram. Ingram was the bigger name coming out last year (and going 28^th overall) because he played for Alabama and won the Heisman. However, they are similar players with similar backgrounds. In 2008, Ingram was a backup and rushed for 875 yards (5.5 YPC) and 13 touchdowns on 158 carries. In 2009, Wilson was a backup and rushed for 769 yards (5.9 YPC) and 15 touchdowns on 129 carries.

In 2009, Ingram had his best season and rushed for 1658 yards and 18 touchdowns on 271 carries (6.1 YPA). In 2010, Wilson has his best season and rushed for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns on 201 carries (6.3 YPC). In 2010, bothered by injury, Ingram had a down year and rushed for 728 yards (5.1 YPA) and 12 touchdowns on 143 carries. In 2011, bothered by injury, Martin had a down year and rushed for 1299 yards and 16 touchdowns on 263 carries (4.9 YPA). Ingram ran a 4.53 at 5-9 215.

Wilson ran a 4.47 at 5-9 223. Both are gritty, tough backs who run with good pad level, break tackles, and play all 3 downs, but lack elite burst and breakaway speed. The main difference is level of competition, which is why Martin is a 2^nd rounder and Ingram is a 1^st rounder, but they are very similar prospects.

Ingram had a rough rookie year, but he’s still got time to turn it around. He’s far from a complete bust. Martin should have a better rookie season if he can stay healthy. Ingram’s problem as a rookie was injuries, something that could plague Martin based on his history of usage, his past injury history, and his style of play. Both Martin and Ingram, however, do have bright futures.

 

The Cowboys were about 20 million over cap after the lockout ended so the Cowboys had to cut Leonard Davis, Marion Barber, Marc Colombo and Roy Williams to get this deal, but franchise left tackles don’t grow on trees. Between Free and Tyron Smith, the Cowboys have very talented bookends to keep Tony Romo upright. They got Free at a very reasonable rate, 32 million over 4, with 17 million guaranteed, which is pretty impressive considering they were in a pretty hectic bidding war with Tampa Bay for him.

Grade: A

 

Wide Receiver

Pittsburgh

6-1 226

40 time: 4.40

Draft board overall prospect rank: #123

Draft board wide receiver rank: #15

Overall rating: 64*

            4/1/10: Dorin Dickerson is possibly the most puzzling NFL Draft prospect of this year, and, for that reason, also the most interesting. He played pretty much every position on the field for Pittsburgh playing linebacker, fullback, tight end, and wide receiver. He also operated the scoreboard, served as assistant coach, was the mascot, and worked the hot dog stand but I don’t think he projects long term at any of those positions on a professional level. In all seriousness, Dickerson has played a ton of positions. However, after measuring in at 6-1 226 at the Combine, he wasn’t going to be big enough to play any of those positions in the NFL, with the exception of wide receiver, where he spent the least amount of time. There were also major concerns about his speed. He had talent, making the All-American team as a tight end in 2009, but there were major questions about his position and, consequently, whether or not he’d be drafted. After running a 4.40 at 6-1 226, he got rid of concerns about his speed. He didn’t look that fast on tape last year, though I knew he was fast for a tight end, which is a bit concerning, maybe he has good track speed and not good football speed, but that definitely showed his athleticism and his ability to play wide receiver longterm. He definitely has the hands to do so, catching 49 passes for 529 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, all the while playing in a Pro Style offense, and running Pro Style routes, but he’s certainly a project. He’ll probably be taken in the 3^rd or 4^th round range by some time who can afford to waste a pick on a possible future special teamer, but he can be a very dangerous offensive weapon at wide receiver in the future if he can convert to the position easily. He’s a very underrated blocker and an amazing blocker for his size so he’ll have a role on special teams early and as a depth receiver, on run plays, but I am optimistic about his upside.

NFL Comparison: Robert Ferguson

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here