The Chiefs improved from 4-12 in 2009 to 10-6 in 2010. But did they actually get any better? That can be tough to tell because of how easy Kansas City’s schedule was last season. In 2010, Kansas City played 4 games against teams with better than a .500 record (including playoffs). They went 1-3 in those games with a point differential of minus 55.
Their one win was a 7 point week 1 home victory over the early season version of the San Diego Chargers. They won that game despite the fact that Matt Cassel threw for 62 yards. Their 3 scores came on a punt return, a pick six, and a long run. San Diego avenged that loss later with a 31-0 beat down in San Diego. In those 4 games, Cassel was 35 for 69 for 294 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.
If we include 3 games against teams that went .500 or better, meaning including 3 games against 8-8 teams, they were 2-5. Those two wins were, of course that fluke win against San Diego, and a 42-20 win over Jacksonville who was starting their 3rd string quarterback. In we include those 3 games, Cassel was 79 for 155 for 818 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. As of a sudden, Cassel doesn’t look like a Pro Bowl quarterback and this team doesn’t look like a legitimate playoff team.
As further part of their easy schedule, 12 of their 17 games (including playoffs) were against teams that ranked 17th through 32nd against the run. Why is this important? Well, this is a run based offense. Running back Jamaal Charles is the offense’s best player and the Chiefs led the league in rushing attempts.
Compare last year’s schedule to this year’s. They play 8 games against teams with better than .500 records from 2010 and 10 games against teams with .500 or better records from 2010. They also play Detroit, a young up and comer in the NFL. They have a brutal late season stretch in which they play New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, the Jets, and Green Bay. In 5 weeks, they play all 4 teams that made the Conference Championships last year, and 3 of the 4 teams who had first round byes last year.
Fortunately, they did add talent in the offseason. Le’Ron McClain has been added to the backfield to block for Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, their two headed rushing attack. Charles is much, much better than Jones, but Todd Haley insists on giving Jones more carries than Charles. Charles had 1467 yards on 230 carries last year, while Jones had 896 yards on 245 carries. Charles had 571 more rushing yards or 15 fewer carries. On top of that, Charles also caught 45 passes for 468 yards, while Jones caught just 14 passes for 122 yards.
The Chiefs added a real wild card in Jared Gaither up front. Gaither, once of the best tackles in the league in 2010, has a potential career threatening back injury. It scared Baltimore off from resigning him, Oakland and Buffalo off from signing him, but Kansas City took a chance on him. If he can stay healthy, he’d stabilize either the left or the right tackle position, both of which are weaknesses on this team.
Branden Albert allowed 11 sacks, making him one of the worst left tackles in the league. On the right side, Barry Richardson allowed 5 sacks and 32 quarterback pressures, all while committing 11 penalties. He has been moved to 2nd string for this season in favor of Ryan O’Callaghan, who barely played last year. Those stats were even with an easy schedule that allowed them to get a lead, play from ahead, and run the ball frequently. Imagine how bad they would have been if they were playing from behind more often. If Gaither can stabilize either of those positions, that would obviously be great, but don’t get your hopes up.
Rounding out the offensive line, they have Jon Asamoah at left guard, a 2010 3rd round pick who takes over after long time Chief Brian Waters was cut this offseason after 11 years in town. At center, 38 year old Casey Wiegmann is still as reliable as they come. If he struggles or gets hurt, 2nd round pick rookie Rodney Hudson will step into the lineup. The Chiefs, however, would prefer Hudson be eased into the action as Wiegmann heads towards the end of his career. At the other guard spot is Ryan Lilja who surprisingly had a very good season in his first year in Kansas City last year, after a few nondescript years in Indianapolis.
At wide receiver, they added much needed talent. Chris Chambers had the 2nd most catches by a wide receiver on the team last season. He had 22 catches. That’s bad. The Chiefs added Jonathan Baldwin through the draft and Steve Breaston through free agency. Baldwin will start opposite Dwayne Bowe while Breaston will line up in the slot where he thrived in Arizona when Todd Haley was the coordinator there.
However, this is not the same Steve Breaston who had 1000 yards out of the slot with Haley in 2008. He has major knee problems now. Meanwhile, Baldwin is a talented player, but rookie receivers tend to struggle and a lockout shortened offseason doesn’t help. Still, both of these players will be a major upgrade over what they had last year at receiver after Bowe. Their #2 and #3 ranked receivers from 2010 were rookie tight end Tony Moeaki and Jamaal Charles respectively.
Overall, they did add talent to their offense this offseason, but I think Matt Cassel is still a very overrated quarterback. He’s good at game managing a run heavy offense, but the Chiefs won’t be able to run as well as they did last year, with a tougher schedule. The tougher schedule works against them two fold. They’ll have fewer leads, which means they won’t be able to run as much, and they won’t face 12 teams ranked in the bottom half of the league against the run again. It doesn’t help that Cassel is protected by two mediocre at best tackles and an offensive line that is banking on Jared Gaither’s bad back to be good.
Defensively, things are a little brighter. They have two former top 5 picks at defensive end in Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson, neither of whom have lived up to their billing. However, both still have upside and neither is terrible. They’re solid starters. In the middle at nose tackle, the marginal Ron Edwards is gone. They’ve replaced him with Kelly Gregg, an underrated player formerly of the Ravens. Gregg will be a stopgap until rookie 6th round pick Jerrell Powe takes over.
At rush linebacker, they have a player in Tamba Hali who might be the best pass rusher in the game. He led the league with 64 quarterback pressures and he also had 14.5 sacks. He was recently rewarded with a 60 million dollar deal over 5 years, a deal he was well worth. Opposite him, however, it is a different story.
Mike Vrabel retired, not like he had anything left. Andy Studebaker, a mediocre player, is penciled in as the starter, but the Chiefs are hoping rookie 3rd round pick Justin Houston can beat him out at some point. Houston was a 1st round talent who dropped to the 3rd because he failed a drug test for marijuana at The Combine, which I feel is a non-issue.
Inside at linebacker, Derrick Williams is one of the best middle linebackers in the game. Promising young player Jovan Belcher, who played very well down the stretch in 2010 will be the other starter. They also brought in Brandon Siler to provide depth at the position. Siler was the 3rd stringer in San Diego and he will play that same role in Kansas City this season unless Belcher regresses.
Their secondary is also a strength. Everyone knows about Brandon Flowers, one of the best cornerbacks in the game. However, Brandon Carr, their #2 cornerback, is very talented and very underrated. He allowed a completion percentage of just 45.5% last year and he had a league leading 19 pass deflections, though he did allow 5 touchdowns to just one interception.
Another well known player, Eric Berry, is their strong safety. Berry was the 5th overall pick in 2010. He did not deserve to go to the Pro Bowl as a rookie, because he allowed 7 touchdowns and missed 11 tackles, but he’s not a bad player anything and he played much better in the 2nd half of his rookie season, as is to be expected. He should continue to improve into his 2nd season in the league.
The free safety position, however, is a bit of a liability. Jon McGraw is 32 years old and a marginal player. The Chiefs hope 2nd year player Kendrick Lewis can beat him out in camp. Lewis played the majority of the snaps at free safety in 2010, with moderate success, but the veteran McGraw is listed atop the depth chart, something that could definitely change.
They have a lot of talent on defense, but I still don’t think they have a very good quarterback. Cassel is very overrated. He struggled in 2009 and he struggled against quality opponents in 2010. He won’t be able to lean on his running game as much this season, he’s poorly protected, and he plays a brutal schedule. I don’t think they’ll be as bad as they were in 4-12 because I think they have more talent than they did that year. I also don’t think they are quite as bad as what my projected record says they are. It’s just they have such a brutal schedule. This is probably about a 7, maybe 8 win team with a normal schedule.
Quarterback: C
Running backs: A-
Receiving corps: C+
Offensive line: C-
Run defense: B-
Pass rush: B-
Pass coverage: B+
Coaching: C-
Projection: 5-11 2nd in AFC West
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