Defensive End/3-4 Defensive End

East Carolina

6-3 288

40 time: 4.75

Draft board overall prospect rank: #134

Draft board 3-4 defensive end rank: #12

Overall rating: 63*

            4/8/10: CJ Wilson is one of the more under the radar players in this draft class. He didn’t have a great statistic season last year in terms of sacks, but he got some good pressure on the quarterback consistently and totaled 10.5 tackles for loss to go with 5.5 sacks. He finished the season strong showing the flashes of brilliance that earned him 10.5 sacks as a junior in 2008. He’s strong against the run at 290, with the potential to be even stronger given how fit he is, and given his long arms and strong motor. He has very underrated athleticism with 4.75 speed at 6-3 288 and can make plays in space. He can drop into coverage very well for his size and can guard some running backs for a little bit. His size and speed allow him to play multiple position. He could play a 3-4 as an end, but I think he’d fit best in a 4-3 as a left end who moves inside in nickel sets or on clear passing downs. He hurries the quarterback with great consistency and has done that from multiple spots on the line and he possesses a great bull rush. He is very good at freeing himself up for the tackle and put together a very solid amount of tackles for his size over the last 2 years with 116. He sheds blocks well and chases well. He lacks an elite first step or great explosiveness off of the line. Wilson is probably looking at the late 3^rd or early 4^th round after his strong combine performance and he is as underrated in the draft community as his school, East Carolina, which, in addition to producing Chris Johnson a few years ago, had one of the best NFL ready lines in the NCAAs last year.

NFL Comparison: Jarvis Green

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

When the Buffalo Bills drafted CJ Spiller with the 9^th overall pick in the 2010 Draft, it was one of the most head scratching moves in the draft, aside from the Tyson Alualu selection one pick later. I don’t know why the Jags would take a guy who was widely regarded as a 2^nd round pick, and the very most a late first rounder, at 10. If they were going to make a reach, why not reach for Tim Tebow, who, by the way leads the NFL in jersey sales since he’s been drafted and definetely would have helped the financially scrapped Jaguars, regardless of whether or not Tebow actually became a great quarterback. He’s a Jacksonville native who had thousands of people lining up to buy his autograph for $160 a pop for charity just a few months before the draft.Tebow won’t even be playing for the Broncos that much when the Broncos come to Jacksonville week 1, but that game is almost already sold out. If the country made him the highest selling jersey, and the city of Jacksonville lined up all day to buy his autograph for at least 2 times what a ticket would cost, and the city of Jacksonville has already almost sold out the stadium to watch Tebow play backup quarterback for the road team , you don’t think he could have sold out most, if not all, home games for the Jaguars in 2010, even though the Jags only had one sellout all last year? But, I digress. I think a lot of people out there already understand that what the Jaguars did was a mistake, but I’m here to talk about what the Bills did with Spiller.

If you’re going to use a top ten pick on a running back, in 2010 when running backs are getting less and less important, you better make sure that he can carry the ball 300 times and that you need him to carry the ball 300 times. I have some doubts about Spiller’s ability to carry the ball 300 times, considering he’s 200 pounds and his career high in carries is 216, but my doubts sometimes don’t mean anything. I know the Bills don’t need Spiller to carry the ball 300 times. The Bills rushing offense ranked 9^th in the league in terms of YPC last year. Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are talented backs. Don’t believe me? Ask the Buffalo Bills, who, according the John Clayton, are planning to give CJ Spiller 12 carries a game. Space that over 16 games, that’s 192 carries, nowhere close to 300. Based on that, I would strongly assume the Bills either don’t think Spiller can carry the load for a team or that they think he doesn’t need to carry the load for a team. Either way, that makes this pick a mistake. You simply don’t use the 9^th overall pick on a guy who won’t or can’t carry the load for you. Sure Spiller will help out in the receiving game and on special teams, but is that worth the 9^th overall pick is he’s not a feature back. I don’t think so.

Some people out there are probably thinking, but CJ Spiller is Chris Johnson. They’ll have to give him the ball more once they realize how good he is. Two things to say to that, one, normally you would hope a team would realize how good a player is before they draft him in the top 10. Two, CJ Spiller is not Chris Johnson. He is CJ Spiller. Saying he’s Chris Johnson is an insult to Chris Johnson. Why do you think I never compare, even the most highly rated players, to MVP caliber players. They have to earn that status. Spiller has to earn that status, and sure he could, but it’s way too premature to start calling him Chris Johnson.

Another thing about Chris Johnson, he averaged 5.6 YPC last year. You think CJ Spiller is going to be able to do that with a shaky quarterback and a below average offensive line. Johnson had a better quarterback and a drastically better offensive line than Spiller has. Trent Edwards behind this line is a tried and failed approach. In fact, Trent Edwards behind a more talented line with Derrick Dockery and Jason Peters on the blindside was a tried and failed approach, though to a lesser degree. I understand they may feel they have something with Brian Brohm. However, why would they not try to at least upgrade the offensive front. They didn’t draft an offensive lineman until the 5^th round, despite the fact that they ranked dead last in attempts per sacks, meaning the number of passing attempts, on average, before a sack, with 9.6. Brian Brohm is probably going to need a lot better protection is he’s going to become the type of quarterback they need. And Spiller is not going to be anywhere near worth the 9^th overall pick if he struggles to run against 8 man boxes, something he will face often unless something good happens at the quarterback position.

Finally, even if Spiller someone manages to become Chris Johnson and has a Chris Johnson type impact against 8 man boxes, despite the fact that he’s never had more than 216 carries in a year and he has to compete with two talented backs for carries and his own team doesn’t have enough faith in him to give him more than 12 carries a game and his offensive line isn’t a good as Chris Johnson’s, I still don’t know if that makes Buffalo a playoff team without something good happening at quarterback.

Chris Johnson didn’t make the playoffs last year and that’s with a more talented quarterback and line than Spiller will have. In fact, the two leading rushers last year, as well as 3 of the top 5, didn’t make the playoffs. Chris Johnson was first, but his team was just 8-8. Steven Jackson was 2^nd and his team was 1-15. Why? Bad quarterbacks behind a bad offensive line (25^th in the league in attempts per sack). Maurice Jones was 4^th but his team went 7-9. Why? Bad, or at average, quarterback play behind a bad offensive line (27^th in the league in attempts per sack).

3 of the top 5 teams in total rushing yards last year didn’t make the playoffs. Tennessee, who we’ve already explained, Carolina, who had many questions at quarterback last year (including is Jake Delhomme colorblind?) as well as a line that was 21^st in attempts per sack, and Miami who had a decent line (15^th) and decent quarterback play, but far from stellar. The only true run heavy team that made the playoffs was the Jets and even they didn’t start taking off as a team until rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez started playing more effciently. Hell, the Colts made the Super Bowl and they were dead last in rushing yards and 30^th in YPC. San Diego made the playoffs at 13-3 even though they were dead last in YPC and 31^st in total rushing yards. Running backs, even if they become feature backs, something both me and seemingly the Bills have doubts that Spiller will become, are not as important as they used to be without an above average quarterback behind an above average line. Running games are merely the compliment to a productive passing game. 

Running Back 

Clemson

5-11 196

40 time: 4.37

Draft board overall prospect rank: #26

Draft board running back rank: #2

Overall rating: 84*

1/17/10: Has had trouble staying healthy in college and his career YPC does not suggest good running back skills, but he has a place in the NFL. He’s way too fast and agile to not have one. He can return kicks, return punts, and can serve as a 3^rd down back or wildcat, but unlike Best I don’t think he’s a feature back at the next level.

Update (11/2/09): 2^nd favorite fast back in college favorite after Best, Spiller does not have Best’s explosion, but he has the moves and the speed to be a Reggie Bush type player at the next level.

            7/25/09: CJ Spiller was heavily recruited out of High School with football skills and all-state track speed at the running back position. He chose to go to Clemson and thus far has been a bit of a disappointment, though that’s not his fault. He has never had more than 145 carries in a season playing 2^nd fiddle to James Davis. Still, at 5-11 190, having never proven himself as a go to guy, there are questions about whether he is a #1 running back in the NFL. He’ll get a chance to show that this year that he’s more than just a lightning fast #2 back with James Davis now a member of the Cleveland Browns. He has looked really good in limited action, averaging about 6 yards per carry in his college career, behind what is thought to be a mediocre offensive line. His stats are even more impressive when you consider the garbage that Clemson has had at quarterback in his career. He doesn’t break a lot of tackles or fight for extra yards. Though he’s capable of breaking a touchdown at any time, with his 4.3 timed speed and his great open field quickness, he could just as easily get 3 straight 1 or 2 yard runs so he needs to work on durability and consistency. He’s a great pass catcher, especially for his age. Despite playing in limited action with a crappy quarterback, he caught 34 catches for 436 yards, giving him a 12.8 yards per catch average which is almost unheard of for a running back. His combination of great hands and his speed and quickness in the open field make him as dangerous catching the ball as he is running the ball and that’s something defenses can’t forget about. He’s also a great kick returner though NFL teams may decide, if he is to be a true #1 running back, that he has to give up returning kicks. He has a lot to prove next season, but I think his speed, pass catching ability, and kick returning ability makes him a first day lock regardless. A strong season next year as the #1 back will cement him as a first round pick, but for right now, he’s a borderline 1^st rounder.

NFL Comparison: Reggie Bush

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Offensive Tackle 

LSU

6-4 327

40 time: 5.49

Draft board overall prospect rank: #62

Draft board offensive tackle rank: #9

Overall rating: 76*

1/30/10: Looked very sluggish, just like most of the South’s offensive line, and could not keep up with the speed hustle rushers of the North’s defensive line. He really struggled at left tackle when put there which I think rule out an hope of him playing there in the NFL, and he wasn’t physically dominant at right tackle either. On several plays, his weight seemed to get in the way of the ball carrier. 

1/19/10: A highly decorated offensive tackle that doesn’t have the athleticism or pass blocking skills to be a left tackle longterm because he’ll be burnt too often, but his strengths against the run could get him drafted in the 2^nd round as a right tackle. He may be the best pure right tackle in this draft class.

            7/28/09: Ciron Black is a big, strong, punishing run blocking offensive tackle. He’s extremely strong and athletic and should amaze at the combine in the bench press. He is the leader of the tough LSU offensive line and the left tackle for the run heavy LSU offensive. He’s a huge part of the reason why the Tigers have been one of the best running team in college football over the past 3 season, in which Black has started all 39 games. He doesn’t have any injury problems whatsoever and is big enough to play left tackle in the NFL. He can play guard, but I don’t know why you’d put him there if he can play tackle. However, he needs to get quicker or he’s going to give up a lot of sacks in the NFL. We see it all the time, guys are punishing run blockers, but they give up 7 or 8 sacks a year at left tackle because of their lack of quickness. Unless he improves, that could be Black. Without quickness, he really only projects as a right tackle in the NFL. If he shows that he can be quick enough to stop speed rushers from getting to the quarterback, teams will see him as a left tackle prospect and that could make him a first round lock based upon the need for franchise left tackles in the NFL. Teams will see him as a punishing run blocker at left tackle who is also not a liability as a pass protector and that will get him a lot of looks in the top 15 or top 20.

NFL Comparison: Levi Brown 

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Spotlight #1: Cincinnati RB Isaiah Pead 

Spotlight #2: Cincinnati DT Derek Wolfe 

1^st quarter

14:46: Pead on a weak outside run. Goes down on first contact.

12:53: Run through Wolfe’s gap, can’t disengage, but tackle for a short gain because Wolfe freed up space for the linebackers.

11:29: Wolfe gets into the backfield up the middle, but it’s a roll out.

8:21: Wolfe does a good job of disengaging and getting a tackle for no gain.

7:04: Pead runs over a few guys up the middle to convert for 6 yards.

5:47: Pead stuffed at the line. No fight on this run.

3:42: Wolfe moves well for a nice tackle for a short gain.

1:37: Pead drops a screen pass.

0:59: Pead with a decent lead block.

2^nd quarter

14:01: Wolfe with a pressure up the middle.

12:10: Pead with a poor block.

11:46: Pead with a run up the middle, not much happening.

11:16: Pead with a small run, not showing a lot of explosiveness out of the shotgun.

10:49: Pead with some room, gets 6 yards, goes down on first contact again though.

10:27: Pead bounces off a tackle and ends up with 13 yards. Getting into a rhythm here.

10:10: Pead with a short run on the outside after being hit in the backfield.

9:22: Pead misses a block.

6:14: Pead with a nice cut to the outside, but slips so it isn’t a bigger run.

5:31: Pead with a conversion on 3^rd and shot thanks to a nice push by his line.

4:09: Wolfe sticks his nose in on a stop for a short gain.

1:07: Pead with a nice catch on a desperation shovel pass under pressure. Can’t quite reverse field for any gain.