By Kevin Harrison

I’m not going to harp too much on the Jets thrashing of the Buffalo Bills in the final game of the season as most of the players on the field will not be playing next week in the playoff rematch against the Colts.

However, there are a few positives I would like to take out of the game:

–         The win gave the Jets 11 wins for just the 4^th time ever in franchise history.

–         Jason Taylor had a sack tying him with Lawrence Taylor and Leslie O’Neal for 8^th place on the all-time list.

–         Nick Folk became just the 3^rd kicker in Jets history with at least 30 field goals.

–         Joe McKnight, in his first game starting for a resting LT and Shonn Green, rushed for 158 yards.

–         Marquice Cole, filling in for our injured secondary, came up with two interceptions.

–         The defense pitched a shutout with the Bills only points coming off an interception.

–         Mark Brunell proved that he could be a decent backup in the playoffs if god-forbid that Sanchez goes down.

–         We were able to rest a lot of starters in preparation for next week’s playoff game with Sanchez able to give his shoulder an extra week to heal.

–         A solid win in the final week gives this team some much needed momentum.

–         Even though this has NOTHING to do with the game, the Giants are out of the playoffs giving the area only the Green and White to focus on.

But the regular season is now over and the Jets are the #6 seed and have a long road ahead.  For this team to accomplish their goals, they will have to beat Manning, and then Brady, and then Roethlisberger all on the road.  Hey, stranger things have happened and in this strange season, you just never know.

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By Kevin Harrison

The heart attack Jets were at it again this past Sunday against a Pittsburgh Steelers team they have not beaten on the road in franchise history.

It’s mostly the offense giving the Jets the need to run for your bottle of Tums but this time, instead of a miracle comeback from the offense, we had to sweat it out watching our defense let the opposition walk down the field for a potential game winning touchdown. 

There was just two seconds left after the Jets watched the Steelers march down the field.  The defense was sickening most of the game allowing a million third down conversions including a disgusting third and 24 on that last drive of the game.   This team is in dire need of a pass rush.  The opposition’s quarterback has days to stay in the pocket to find a receiver and it seems like on third down, that receiver was mostly found.  And what was more concerning was that our punter kept on pinning the Steelers deep in their own end and the defense would play soft.  It was almost like we would go into a prevent defense for chunks of the game.

I even thought the defense came up big when the Jets had a three point lead and Weatherford pinned the Steelers deep and we followed it up with a safety to go up by five.  However, our offense decided it was best to stop the clock with a bad throw on third down giving the ball back to the Steelers again deep in their own end on another brilliant punt.  However, finally, on that last play, we stopped them.  Game over.  Phewwwww.  The losing streak is over.  We finally beat a team with a winning record.  We beat them on the road.  We ended the TD scoring drought.  And, we put ourselves in a great position to make the post season now with a 10-4 record with two games to play and a two game lead on the next closest Wild Card teams.

Earlier in the game, Sanchez broke the Jets touchdown streak with a great handoff fake and took it into the end-zone untouched.  And that was on a 4^th down which was huge. It also showed that this team was able to come back as they were down 17-10 at that point.

The game started off better than anyone could have imagined with Brad Smith taking the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown and a quick 7-0 lead. 

Despite some of Brian Schottenheimer’s questionable calls, the offense did do some things better against one of the better defenses in the league.  What was most impressive was that the Jets were able to gain 106 yards on the ground against a defense that only allows 60 yards per game.  So, the Ground and Pound, despite ugly at times, was working.

Sanchez had a decent game despite being on the road in cold and snowy conditions going 19 for 29 for 170 yards and no INTs for the first time in the past 19 games.  He was helped out greatly by Braylon Edwards hauling in eight catches for 100 yards and made some key third down grabs. Santonio Holmes, in his return to Pittsburgh, also grabbed six catches and if it weren’t for a holding penalty, he should have had seven catches which would have put the Jets in a great position to go up two scores.

The Defense had its moments but one of the biggest was a Jason Taylor tackle in the end-zone for a safety.  Revis had a good game despite his other hamstring acting up earlier in the week.  However, we couldn’t stop this team on third down.  There were way too many third and longs that we let them convert.

This was a true team effort especially coming off the week we had after two straight losses and then the “Trip Gate” incident.  We are back.  We need to ride this wave.  1986’s collapse is not happening.  This victory squished that thought.  This is the time where you need to go on a role.  We faced adversity in the eye and didn’t disappoint this time.  Let’s hope this is the first step in the right direction; a direction that ends in Dallas.

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Hey, you know that whole Brett Favre retiring thing. Turns out it was pretty much a hoax. Even though no one in the media heard it straight from his mouth that he was retiring, the entire world went into a panic and assumed he was retiring because of some alleged text messages. I did update my site when this happened, because I felt I had no other choice. I don’t want people who read my site thinking it was still ok to draft Brett Favre early, with there being a good chance he was retired, or that Sidney Rice was still a top 5 receiver, even though Favre could very well have been retiring. However, now that we have heard it from Favre’s mouth that he will play if healthy, I’ve got to chance everything back. Oh, and if Favre actually does retire, he is officially the biggest douche bag of the year over Tiger Woods and LeBron James. Every time I update my site for Favre it takes about an hour and a half, with my Power Rankings, season predictions NFL Mock Draft, and Fantasy content. So until further notice, everyone regains their fantasy ranking from before the retirement that wasn’t, except for…

QB Brett Favre UP

Before the retirement that wasn’t, I had Brett Favre as my 7^th rated quarterback because I think he will produce the 7^th most fantasy points for a quarterback this year and I was sure he’d come back. However, though I still think he will produce the 7^th most fantasy points for a quarterback if he plays, there is still a slight chance he doesn’t. I have decided I’d rather have Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, and Joe Flacco before Favre, just because I like to know that I’m getting a sure thing and those 4 guys really aren’t going to be that much worse than Favre this year. So Favre is back up, just not all the way back up.

 

 

 

Brett Favre has “retired.” However, right after the news, I tweeted “over/under a week before Brett Favre comes back” and it turns out I’m not alone. A large percentage of the football community believes that Favre is not actually 100% retired (like a boy who cried wolf phenomenon). To me, Brett Favre is retired when week 1 starts and he’s not playing. However, what kind of fantasy football site would this be if we didn’t update our ranking for Favre’s retirement? So, while, I don’t like to feed into the media frenzy that is Brett Favre, Favre gets himself his own fantasy football updates page. I will also adjust my season predictions, my power rankings, and my NFL Mock Draft. And if he does unretire, I will change my fantasy rankings, season predictions, power rankings, and NFL Draft once again, which is a pain in the ass the first time. Brett Favre if you unretire, you officially beat out LeBron for biggest douche of the year, for making me update my fantasy rankings, season predictions, power rankings, and NFL Mock Draft again.

QB Brett Favre- DOWN

Do I need to say anything? I might still consider him in the late rounds if he was there just in case, but as long as he is “retired” he’s not worth much fantasy wise.

RB Adrian Peterson- NEUTRAL

Peterson was the #1 fantasy back in 2008 without Favre and he was top 3, in all formats, last year with Favre. He’s still my #1 back.

QB Tarvaris Jackson- UP

But, not really. He sucks. Don’t draft him.

WR Percy Harvin- DOWN

Downgrade at quarterback = less stats.

WR Sidney Rice- DOWN

Downgrade at quarterback = less stats. It’s a shame because I was hoping Rice would show himself to the world as the top 5 receiver he is this year.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe- DOWN

Downgrade at quarterback = less stats. Favre also made their offense a lot more potent and scored more touchdowns through the air. Shiancoe benefited with 11 scores. However, the 7 he had in 2008 seems more likely for him this year. 

 

RB Laurence Maroney DOWN

Maroney has yet to see a single carry this preseason. Belicheck loves to mess with fantasy owners, but this is definitely not a good sign. He’ll probably see some carries, but he’ll share with guys like Fred Taylor, Ben Jarvus Green Ellis and Sammy Morris.

WR Donnie Avery DOWN

Avery is done for the year with a torn ACL.

WR Brandon Gibson UP

Someone has to lead the Rams in receiving with Avery down…right? With Avery down and Laurent Robinson unable to catch a single ball, on 4 targets, in his absense, Gibson, who showed flashes of good things to come last year as a rookie, could end up as the top receiver in St. Louis.

TE Rob Gronkowski UP

Gronkowski definitely doesn’t look like a rookie this preseason. He’s a big physical tight end and he should be the starter in New England’s explosive offense. He’s not going to be a top 15 tight end of mine, but he’s certainly someone to keep your eye on. He looks like a true end zone weapon.

RB Joseph Addai UP

Addai looked better in his 3^rd preseason game than he has since his rookie year. He had a gain of 49 that was more than twice as long as any gain he has had on the ground since his rookie year.

RB Donald Brown DOWN

While Addai was great, Brown struggled yet again with 6 yards on 5 carries. He doesn’t look as poised to steal Addai’s job at some point this year as he once did.

WR Donald Driver UP

So much for bad knees, Driver led the Packers in targets in their 3^rd preseason game and looked good. He still did struggle late last year so there’s still that and I thnik he’s still definitely a clear #2 to Greg Jennings, but he’s a decent WR4.

WR Brian Hartline UP

Hartline has looked good in the preseason so far and with Greg Camarillo gone, there are fewer talented receivers to steal receptions from him. He’s someone to keep your eye on as Miami’s #2 receiver.

QB Donovan McNabb DOWN

McNabb’s ankle could keep him out of the first regular season game.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson UP

LT looked like, well, LT in his 3^rd preseason game with 86 yards on 11 carries. He’ll see some carries behind this amazing offensive line so he’s worth a roster spot, especially as a handcuff for Shonn Greene should the 2^nd year running back get hurt or struggle.

RB Chris Ivory UP

Seemingly out of nowhere Ivory has had a strong preseason. Sean Payton enjoys mixing it up with his running backs so Ivory could be that 3^rd running back in the mix with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, a la Mike Bell. I wouldn’t draft him, but I’d keep my eye on him.

RB Pierre Thomas DOWN

If Payton has fallen in love with Ivory the way he did with Mike Bell, Thomas could sadly once again struggle to get 200 carries and thus struggle to get more than 1000 yards.

 

WR Mohamed Massaquoi UP

Delhomme has actually looked decent this preseason and while I don’t recommend drafting him, it definitely a good sign for Massaquoi, Delhomme’s #1 receiver.

RB CJ Spiller UP

Spiller is yet another rookie that has looked amazing this preseason and is pushing for more carries, over Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch.

WR Mike Williams UP

Williams has looked amazing this preseason and is the clear #1 wide receiver for the Bucs.

WR Arrelious Benn DOWN

So much for Benn being a fantasy sleeper, Benn likely won’t be a starter to start the year and could be pretty buried on the depth chart.

WR Percy Harvin UP

When healthy, Harvin is the Vikings best receiver, now that Sidney Rice has gone down with a hip injury. It’s definitely a good sign that he has been practicing and now playing in games without issues and the news that doctors may have found a sort of cure for his migraines is great for his fantasy value. If healthy, he’s a strong WR2 with Rice out.

RB Arian Foster UP

Foster definitely looks like a strong starting running back after rushing for 110 yards on 18 carries in nhis 3^rd preseason game. He definitely looks talented enough to be their starter all year.

WR Jacoby Jones UP

One week Kevin Walter has a big week, the next Jacoby Jones does. I’m moving Jones back up, but it looks like both will be pretty involved in the offense, enough to cancel out each other’s fantasy value.

WR Kevin Walter DOWN

Walter looked bad in his 3^rd preseason game, after a strong 2^nd game. As with Jacoby Jones, I wouldn’t recommend drafting him, but keep your eye on both of them.

WR Johnny Knox UP

After 3^rd preseason games, Knox is clearly the top wide receiver in Chicago’s offense.

WR Devin Aromashodu DOWN

Aromashodu has simply not lived up to the hype after his strong finish to last season. Don’t be the one to reach for him.

RB Matt Forte DOWN

After looking great in his 2^nd preseason game, he was an absolute dud in his 3^rd preseason game.

RB Tim Hightower UP

For the 3^rd straight week, Hightower was the Cardinals’ starter at running back. Even if he isn’t the starter during the season, in favor of Chris Wells, he should get his fair share of carries because Coach Ken Whisenhunt loves his pass catching and pass blocking skills. Love him as a high upside RB4.

RB Chris Wells DOWN

For the 3^rd straight preseason game, Wells has not seen a single first quarter carry. This is definitely not a good sign for Wells’ fantasy value as he may not be the starter to begin the year.

RB Brandon Jacobs UP

So much for him being Bradshaw’s backup, Jacobs looked like he had a 2^nd wind in his 3^rd preseason game outpreforming Bradshaw. No official word yet, but it could be a sign that Jacobs and Bradshaw will evenly split carries, rather than Bradshaw being the lead back as ESPN’s Matt Moseley reported.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw DOWN

Bradshaw struggled a bit in his 3^rd preseason game and might not be the clear lead back as was previously reported.

WR Louis Murphy UP

Murphy had a big 3^rd preseason game and with Chaz Schilens out indefinitely with knee surgery, Murphy looks like the favorite to be the Raiders top receiver, at least to start the year.

WR Chaz Schilens DOWN

Schilens is out indefinitely with knee surgery.

RB Michael Bush DOWN

Bush broke his thumb in his 3^rd preseason game and his status for the Raiders first 1-3 weeks is in doubt. 

QB Brett Favre DOWN

Favre had a shot of lubricant injected into his surgically repaired ankle and admitted that he has no idea of his ankle will hold up all season. Bad sign. 

 

WR Danario Alexander DOWN

Once a potential sleeper, Alexander looks like he could be a finally cut in Rams camp after a poor preseason. It appears the final 6 receivers for the Rams will be Mike Sims-Walker and Brandon Gibson in the starting lineup, Danny Amendola in the slot, and then two rookies Austin Pettis and Greg Salas and reclamation project Donnie Avery, who is coming off a season ending injury. MSW is a legitimate WR2/WR3, while Amendola is a nice PPR flex or depth receiver in normal leagues. Gibson and Kendricks both have upside and could be an interesting sleeper.

RB Ryan Grant DOWN

We’re getting a better feel for how things will shake out at running back for the Packers. Grant got the ball on 3 series and Starks got it on 2 series. It’s looking like a 60-40 split between the 2 running backs on 1^st and 2^nd downs with 3^rd round pick Alex Green coming in on some 3^rd downs like Brandon Jackson used to. I’d say 210 carries for Grant, 130 for Starks, and 40 for Green.

RB James Starks UP

We’re getting a better feel for how things will shake out at running back for the Packers. Grant got the ball on 3 series and Starks got it on 2 series. It’s looking like a 60-40 split between the 2 running backs on 1^st and 2^nd downs with 3^rd round pick Alex Green coming in on some 3^rd downs like Brandon Jackson used to. I’d say 210 carries for Grant, 130 for Starks, and 40 for Green.

WR Emmanuel Sanders DOWN

Sanders played well down the stretch last season and was a candidate to possibly beat out Hines Ward for the #2 receiver role in Pittsburgh, but he got hurt and now it’s looking like he might not even beat out Antonio Brown and Jerricho Cotchery for the #3 receiver role. Don’t forget his name, but also don’t draft him. He’s in no position right now to have an impact.

WR Nate Burleson UP

Matt Stafford is going to be going deep a lot more than Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton did last season. Burleson caught 12 catches for 179 yards and 1 touchdown in 3 games with Stafford last season, good for 64 catches for 955 yards and 5 touchdowns. Burleson has looked good this preseason with and without Johnson in the lineup. With the way Stafford is playing, there’s fantasy value with both Burleson and Johnson.

QB Matt Stafford UP

Wow. I had questions with Stafford going into this season because he has never proved himself on the field at the NFL level. However, he’s looked amazing this season, especially in the Lions’ 3^rd preseason game. He went 12 for 14 with 2 touchdowns and 200 passing yards, good for a perfect passer rating. Detroit’s quarterbacks had 4001 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 16 picks last season even though Stafford only played 3 games.

Now add in the fact that Titus Young is replacing Bryant Johnson, one of the worst receivers in the league last season, in the slot, and that Stafford is much more talented than Hill and Stanton and Stafford could have 4200 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions if he plays 16 games. However, we have to take injuries into account so my projected stats for him are over 14 games. Still, he’s a nice low end QB1 with top 7-8 fantasy QB upside.

WR Antonio Brown UP

After catching 4 passes for 137 balls and 2 touchdowns in the Steelers 3^rd preseason game, Brown looks like he’s going to win the slot job for the Steelers. In previous years, Nate Washington and Mike Wallace have put up nice stats out of the slot in Pittsburgh and that was with two productive starters, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. Mike Wallace is now a proven starter, but Ward is regressing in his advanced age and he’s coming off offseason surgery. Brown is a speedy 2^nd year player who could end up in the starting lineup by the end of the season if Ward continues to decline.

WR Earl Bennett UP

Roy Williams is out of shape. Devin Hester is inconsistent. Johnny Knox has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. Meanwhile, Bennett led all of Cutler’s receivers in targets in their 3^rd preseason game. Mike Martz has said that Bennett, who had 46 catches for 541 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, will have a bigger role this season and Cutler is obviously comfortable throwing to him. He’s targeting him more than anyone and they were teammates at Vanderbilt. At worst, Bennett is the slot guy. At best, he’d the be #2, but the Bears spread so much that it might not matter. He’ll be on the field plenty and could lead the team in catches and yards.

WR Roy Williams DOWN

Roy Williams sucks. Even if he does start the season in the starting lineup, he’s in no position to help your fantasy team and he’ll be benched sooner rather than later. Don’t draft him. 

 

RB LeGarrette Blount UP

LeGarrette Blount can catch passes?! After catching 5 passes all last season, Blount got 3 in their 3^rd preseason game, not the first time he’s showed better hands this preseason. The Bucs don’t have a single talented, proven back behind him on the depth chart and while he won’t be the 3^rd down back all the time, they may feel comfortable leaving him in on some 3^rd downs. We could definitely see around 300 carries from him this season with mediocre, but not terrible pass catching stats, in addition to plenty of rushing yards and touchdowns.

WR Kenny Britt UP

Kenny Britt will not be suspended, meaning, barring injury, he’ll play 16 games this season. He had 42 catches for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns last season in 12 games. Over 16 games, that’s 56 catches for 1033 yards and 12 touchdowns. That’s good for 175 fantasy points, which would have made him the 7^th ranked fantasy receiver last season. Now keep in mind, he has a better quarterback situation this season with Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker rather than Kerry Collins and Vince Young and he’s in his 3^rd season, a breakout year for young wide receivers. We have a legitimate top 10 wide receiver with Britt this season.

Projection: 61 catches, 1100 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns (182 pts, 243 PPR)

RB Arian Foster DOWN

Arian Foster has reinjured his hamstring. He will probably play week 1, but the key word is probably. Even Gary Kubiak said he hoped Foster could go. Even if Foster doesn’t miss any games, recurring hamstring injuries are never a good thing. He’s extremely talented, but he’s not safe as the #1 fantasy pick anymore. I have Ray Rice atop my board now and may move Adrian Peterson above Foster if we get indication in the next few days that Foster missing week 1 is a strong possibility.

Projection: 300 carries, 1320 rushing yards, 55 receptions, 510 receiving yards, 14 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (261 pts, 316 PPR)

RB Ben Tate UP

Ben Tate is a very talented rusher who is a natural fit for the Texans’ offensive scheme. He was supposed to be the #1 guy last year before he got hurt. He’s looked great in the preseason and Houston’s offensive line is so good at run blocking that Tate immediately becomes fantasy startable should Foster miss any games. He’s a nice handicap for Foster and an upside pick in deeper leagues for all owners. Derrick Ward would get some carries in Foster’s absence, but Tate, a 2010 2^nd round pick, would probably get the bulk of the carries.

Projection: 80 carries, 390 rushing yards, 10 receptions, 80 receiving yards, 4 total touchdowns, 2 fumbles (69 pts, 79 PPR)

TE Owen Daniels UP

The case for Owen Daniels: In 2007, his 2^nd season in the league, he caught 63 passes for 768 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2008, he caught 70 passes for 862 yards and 2 touchdowns. In 2009, he caught 40 passes for 519 yards and 5 touchdowns in 8 games before tearing his ACL. Stretch that over 16 games and you get 80 catches for 1038 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2010, he came back too quickly from his ACL tear, struggled for 7 games and then missed 5 before finishing strong. In his final 4 games, he caught 22 passes for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 88 catches for 1084 yards and 8 touchdowns.

The Texans rely heavily on the tight end. In Daniels absence last season, career backup Joel Dressen caught 19 passes for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns in 5 games. Combine that with Daniels’ stats from his final 5 games and you get 41 catches for 546 yards and 4 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 72 catches for 971 yards and 7 touchdowns. Daniels should be the #2 option in Houston behind Andre Johnson and, by all indications, is due for a huge season should he play 16 games.

He’s healthy now and seems to have put that ACL tear behind him. The Texans gave him a 4 year deal in the offseason and say they plan to feature him a lot in their offense. In the Texans’ 3^rd preseason game, Daniels was targeted a team high 8 times by Schaub. He’s healthy, he’s talented, and he’s a popular target of Schaub. There’s definitely upside here and I’d say he’s more likely to play 16 games than he is to miss a game.

I’m going to be conservative with his projection. I’d say he gets slightly better than 72 catches for 971 yards and 7 touchdowns should he play all 16 games. Remember, in 2009, he was on pace for 80 catches 1000+ yards and 10 touchdowns. In the last 4 games of last season, he was on pace for similar numbers. Hell, the Houston tight end spot in the last 9 games of last season (4 games of Daniels, 5 games of Dressen) was close to those numbers. I’d say 75 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns should he stay healthy, but I’m going to be conservative and say he plays 15 games. That still makes him my #4 tight end.

Projection: 70 catches, 940 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (136 pts, 206 PPR)

 

 

RB Jonathan Stewart DOWN

The Panthers offense is a mess right now. The Panthers are going to start Cam Newton week 1 as a rookie even though he has a mere 14 career college starts and missed most of the offseason thanks to the lockout. Newton’s rushing ability will be good for Stewart’s and Williams’ YPC. Vince Young had positive effects on Chris Johnson’s YPC. Michael Vick had a positive effect on LeSean McCoy’s YPC. Vince Young even had a positive effect on Travis Henry’s YPC in Young’s rookie year. However, Newton is still extremely raw as a passer which means there won’t be a lot of touchdowns scored in Carolina, which means Stewart and Williams won’t score much.

RB DeAngelo Williams DOWN

The Panthers offense is a mess right now. The Panthers are going to start Cam Newton week 1 as a rookie even though he has a mere 14 career college starts and missed most of the offseason thanks to the lockout. Newton’s rushing ability will be good for Stewart’s and Williams’ YPC. Vince Young had positive effects on Chris Johnson’s YPC. Michael Vick had a positive effect on LeSean McCoy’s YPC. Vince Young even had a positive effect on Travis Henry’s YPC in Young’s rookie year. However, Newton is still extremely raw as a passer which means there won’t be a lot of touchdowns scored in Carolina, which means Stewart and Williams won’t score much.

RB Peyton Hillis DOWN

Peyton Hills and Montario Hardesty each got a series with the first team in Cleveland’s 3^rd preseason game. Hardesty seems to be back and able to play after injuries in his first season and earlier this preseason. The Browns coaching staff wants to keep Hillis fresh after he wore down late last season so Hardesty should see a large minority of the carries on 1^st and 2^nd downs, possibly even alternating every series with Hillis. The good news for Hillis is that Brandon Jackson, who was signed as a 3^rd down back this offseason, is hurt with turf toe, a lingering injury. That means Peyton Hillis would be the 3^rd down back. New Head Coach Pat Shurmur says he sees Hillis as a big part of this passing offense next season. Hillis will also remain the goal line back, for obvious reasons.

RB Montario Hardesty UP

Hardesty appears healthy and should see his fair share of carries on 1^st and 2^nd downs in Cleveland. He doesn’t catch a lot of passes and won’t stay in on 3^rd down and he won’t get the goal line carries, but he should get a significant enough amount of yards to be worth a spot on your fantasy team, especially since he’s a Peyton Hillis injury away from being the lead back.

 

RB Tim Hightower UP

Roy Helu didn’t see a single first half carry for the Redskins in their 3^rd preseason game. Mike Shanahan is obviously not impressed with the rookie 4^th round pick. Ryan Torain could still steal some carries from Hightower once he’s healthy, but Mike Shanahan seems to consider Tim Hightower a lead back. He’s done this thing before with random running backs with a lot of success. He won’t score a lot in Washington’s miserable offense, but he’s running well and should get a lot of all purpose yards and give you plenty of catches in PPR.

QB Michael Vick DOWN

The Eagles offense looks out of sync right now. I don’t know if it’s Maclin being out or defensive coordinators having a whole offseason to figure out how to stop Vick, but this is not good for Vick’s fantasy value. Maclin should be back week 1, but he won’t be 100%. Normally I don’t like to overreact to the preseason, but Vick is being drafted as high as the top 5 as a quarterback. This has to be worrisome.

WR DeSean Jackson DOWN

The Eagles offense looks out of sync right now. I don’t know if it’s Maclin being out or defensive coordinators having a whole offseason to figure out how to stop Vick, but this is not good for Jackson’s fantasy value. Maclin should be back week 1, but he won’t be 100%. 

RB Ray Rice UP

Ray Rice got all of the goal line looks in Baltimore first preseason game. It seems that Ricky Williams will be nothing but a backup. The Ravens have rushed for 33 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. If they rush for 16 or 17 this year, it’s very conceivable that Rice could get 12, plus an addition 2 through the air since he’s such a great pass catcher.

 

 

 

QB Peyton Manning DOWN

Peyton Manning is not expected to be ready for week 1 according to higher ups in the Indianapolis organization. The Colts have signed Kerry Collins as insurance. The last time Peyton Manning missed the preseason was 2008. It took him 7 games to get right. In those 7 games, the Colts went 3-4 and Peyton Manning was 162-265 (61.1%) for 1754 yards (6.6 YPA) 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

Let’s say Manning misses one game, and then in his next 7 has numbers similar or slightly worse than what he had in 7 games in 2008 (remember, this is a more serious injury and he’s 3 years old) and then in the 2^nd half he has vintage Peyton Manning numbers only cut in half (180-270 for 2100 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions), that gives him this fantasy line for the season: 3854 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.

That gives him 226 fantasy points. That puts him right around what Eli Manning had in 2010 (221). Eli Manning finished 10^th in quarterback fantasy points. I don’t think that’s a completely unreasonable projection for Peyton this season. I really don’t. He has a great supporting cast on offense so I’m projecting him slightly higher than that, but not much. Stay away from this guy. He’s going to get over drafted in your league.

WR Reggie Wayne DOWN

If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Reggie Wayne’s fantasy value.

 

WR Austin Collie DOWN

If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Austin Collie’s fantasy value.

TE Dallas Clark DOWN

If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Dallas Clark’s fantasy value. I think Clark will be hurt the most. Reggie Wayne still had very good numbers in the first half of 2008, though he is older now. Austin Collie is very, very talented player. Clark, however, had just 31 catches for 396 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first half in 2008 and that was without having Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stealing targets.

RB Joseph Addai DOWN

The last time Peyton Manning was injured, Joseph Addai scored just 7 times. This injury looks to be even more serious. Addai won’t have as much running room as he’s used to either. Addai could carry the ball more with Manning out or struggling, but he’s not a very talented back. He has fantasy value because he’s the goal line back in what was supposed to be an explosive offense. If it’s not, Addai’s value drops. He’s also still a major injury risk.

 

 

 

QB Tom Brady UP

With Welker back in the lineup, the Patriots and Tom Brady looked to be in 2007 form week 2 against Atlanta. I’m not saying that he’ll throw 50 touchdowns, but having a healthy Welker in the lineup certainly improves his fantasy stock.

WR Wes Welker UP

Good to see him in there and healthy. In fact, if I didn’t see it myself, I wouldn’t have believed that this guy was ever in a freak injury accident week 17 last year. Leading the league in receptions last year despite missing 3 games with injury makes this guy a PPR god, and he’s pretty good in normal leagues too.

RB Fred Taylor UP

Fred Taylor looked great in the Patriots’ 2^nd preseason game with 11 carries for 54 yards and a score. He probably won’t be their starter, but look for them to use him often this year. That makes him someone to target late. He’s being overlooked in fantasy circles this year.

RB Laurence Maroney DOWN

Maroney didn’t play at all in his 2^nd preseason game. This is probably just Bill Belicheck trying to mess with fantasy football owners and Maroney will still be the lead guy this year, but it’s still not encouraging.

RB CJ Spiller UP

With Lynch and Jackson out, Spiller dominated with 10 carries for 54 yards and a score, looking like he was still in college and dominating ACC defenses. Lynch and Jackson will be back before week 1 presumably, so he’ll still give carries to them, but he has a chance in the preseason to prove himself and push for more work and if he keeps running like this, he’ll get it.

RB Julius Jones DOWN

Jones didn’t start the 2^nd preseason game, and looked horrible in the action he did get with 14 yards on 5 carries. He will have some fantasy value if he becomes the lead back there, but that doesn’t look likely at the moment.

RB Justin Forsett UP

Forsett started the 2^nd preseason game against the Packers, but didn’t use the opportunity to prove himself like he could have, rushing for 13 yards on 5 carries. It looks like Pete Carroll will use his backs as he did at USC, spreading around the carries, which could be very frustrating for fantasy owners. Forsett is probably the most valuable Seattle back though as I do feel he is the most talented and best equipped to take advantage of his carries.

RB Leon Washington UP

Washington was the best Seattle back during the 2^nd preseason game with 4 carries for 19 yards. He appears healthy and will definitely be in the mix this year in Seattle.

RB Brandon Jacobs DOWN

So much for being healthy, Jacobs missed the 2^nd preseason game with a neck injury and now it is being reportedly by ESPN’s Matt Mosley that Ahmad Bradshaw will be the feature back for the Giants this year and could get up to 2/3rds of the carries.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw UP

Bradshaw impressed with Jacobs out with 28 yards and a score on 6 carries and appears in line to be the feature back in New York over Brandon Jacobs.

WR Jacoby Jones DOWN

So much for being a sleeper. Jones was back to the 2^nd team during the Texans week 2 game.

WR Kevin Walter UP

Walter was back in the first team offense with Houston. Houston is one of 5 offenses in the league, New England, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Green Bay being the other 4, where, a player has fantasy value just for being a starting receiver. Walter is now an interesting late round sleeper. Remember this guy has 800 yards and 8 scores just 2 years ago.

RB Larry Johnson DOWN

Johnson was allowed to showcase what he had this week, in an attempt to win the starting job. He rushed for 4 yards on 8 carries. Chances are, he’s not winning that job.

RB Clinton Portis UP

Portis hasn’t been amazing in his first two preseason games, but Larry Johnson struggled in his showcase game week 2 and I don’t expect Willie Parker to be much better next week. It appears Portis will at least start the year as the starter, though don’t expect too much out of him.

RB Ryan Torain UP

Willie Parker, Larry Johnson, and Clinton Portis are all old. Ryan Torain is a talented kid out of Arizona State that has had a disappointing career so far thanks to injuries. He’s in his 3^rd year and he was drafted by none other than Mike Shanahan, who liked him so much that he brought him over from Denver to Washington. I’m not saying he’ll start the year as starter, but Torain, who has 18 carries for 64 yards in his first two preseason games as a 2^nd teamer, could end up being the starter in Washington sooner or later, so remember the name.

 

RB Matt Forte UP

Forte was amazing in his 2^nd preseason game going for 109 yards and a score on 5 carries. 89 of those yards were on one carry, but he looked solid the whole night and has looked better than Chester Taylor the entire preseason. Forte will probably win the job in Chicago and if the signing of Taylor has motivated him to get back into shape, he could be a legitimate fantasy sleeper again.

WR Jabar Gaffney UP

Gaffney has been used in the #1 receiver role in Denver this preseason and had 6 catches for 98 yards on 7 targets in his 2^nd preseason game. It appears it will be him, not Demaryius Thomas or Eddie Royal who is the impact receiver in Denver this year. Gaffney had 21 catches for 282 yards and 2 score in his final 2 regular seasons last year.

WR Chaz Schilens DOWN

Schilens missed the Raiders’ 2^nd preseason and has missed some practice time with a foot injury, as well as a knee injury. This is the same foot that cost him 8 games last season so this is hardly a good sign for the man who has the inside track to be the Raiders’ #1 receiver for 2010. There is also speculation that he needs knee surgery.

WR Louis Murphy UP

With Schilens out, the 2^nd year Murphy shined. Murphy was their best receiver when he played last year, with Darrius Heyward Bey struggling and Schilens not 100% after his foot injury, and if Schilens is less than 100% again or misses anytime, Murphy could be a solid WR3 for a few weeks. He’s worth a look late in your fantasy draft. He’d be a huge fantasy player if Schilens missed any time with a foot injury or knee surgery.

RB Darren McFadden DOWN

McFadden has missed about two weeks and counting of practice and two preseason game with a very limiting foot injury. In the meantime, his competition for the starting job, Michael Bush, has been shining brightly both in practice and in games. This competition looks almost over. It appears McFadden will be the backup.

RB Michael Bush UP

Bush has taken advantage of McFadden’s injury and looks in line to win the starting running back job in Oakland. He’s a very talented back and will almost certainly be a 1000 yard guy if given 250+ carries. He also has decent hands and good size near the end zone, provided the Raiders make it to the end zone with more consistency this year than years past.

RB Marion Barber UP

For the 2^nd straight week, Barber has been the first string back for the Cowboys. It appears that despite rumors than Felix Jones was their guy and Barber was trade bait, Barber and Jones have had no change in their roles from last year. Expect Barber to match his 2009 stats and likely surpass them as he did play most of 2009 with a lingering hammy problem.

RB Felix Jones DOWN

So much for Jones as lead back. He could overtake Barber as starter at some point this year, but at least for the start of the season, Jones isn’t a fantasy starter caliber player. He’s still worth a bench spot, but you can do a lot better with a mid round selection than Jones.

WR Derrick Mason UP

Despite all the new weapons the Ravens gave Joe Flacco this offseason, he’s still doing what he knows how to do best in the preseason, throwing it to Derrick Mason. Mason only has one season of 1000 yards or less in the past 10 years and could challenge for another 1000 yard season this year, even with all these new weapons around him. Even if he doesn’t get 1000 yards, he’ll be close and he’s extremely undervalued this year.

WR Anquan Boldin DOWN

Boldin only has 2 receptions in his first 2 preseason games and simply is not being targeted as much as Flacco’s longest tenured target, Derrick Mason. This could continue into the season, even though Boldin is more physically impressive.

QB Jimmy Clausen DOWN

Clausen stunk up the joint in his 2^nd preseason game against the Jets. I don’t think he can win that starting job after that performance.

QB Matt Moore UP

Moore wasn’t much better than Clausen in their 2^nd preseason game as, even without Darrelle Revis, the Jets secondary completely shut down the Panthers aerial attack. However, Clausen’s performance was so bad he all but eliminated himself from the starting job competition. Moore looks like the guy and therefore an interesting late round sleeper. Despite his 2^nd week performance, Moore is still a talented and underrated quarterback who put up solid numbers to end the last year. He is the reason why I believe the Panthers will win many games against the NFL Spread. This is a very underrated bunch.

WR Larry Fitzgerald DOWN

Whether it be Leinart or Anderson, the Cardinals couldn’t do anything offensively against the Titans in their 2^nd preseason game. For what it’s worth, Leinart was worse, but they both sucked. With Leinart it was all checkdowns and underthrows and with Anderson it was a bunch of inaccurate overthrows. Fitzgerald is good, but he can’t throw the ball to himself. He also has a lingering knee injury and lingering injuries sapped a lot of his production last year. He may have issues reaching both 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.

WR Steve Breaston DOWN

It’s looking more and more like the Cardinals are going to be a horrible offensive bunch and as a horrible bunch, it’s going to be tough for them to have two fantasy caliber receiver. Breaston is going to have minimal value as the #2 to Fitz this year.

WR Sidney Rice DOWN

Rice has confirmed that he did have hip surgery and will miss at least 8 weeks and could miss the entire season, as with these injuries, the recovery time is often longer than reported. This is a huge hit for one of my top 5 receivers. Don’t expect him to be a top 5 receiver once he’s back either. I don’t think he’ll have much more than 500 yards and 5 scores this year. If you want to draft him still, you’ll have to use up a bench spot on him for a while. I’d let someone else deal with this mess.

WR Bernard Berrian UP

Rice has a bad hip and will miss at least 8 weeks. Harvin just fainted on a football field. All of a sudden, Berrian looks like an interesting late round option.

QB Brett Favre DOWN

The reason Favre had a career year at age 40 last year, probably had something to do with the fact that he was working with one of his more talented receiving corps. With Rice out and Harvin also nowhere near game ready, those receiving corps don’t look as great.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe UP

With the 6-4 Rice out of there, Shiancoe will continue to be Favre’s favorite end zone target. He should get double digit scores again and should also be more involved in the passing game between the 20s as well.

RB Chris Wells DOWN

Wells once again did not get a carry until the 2^nd quarter. It looks like, at the very least, he will be splitting carries with Hightower in their pass heavy offense, as Hightower is the far superior pass catcher and pass blocker.

RB Tim Hightower UP

Hightower got the start again but only managed 3 yards on 5 carries. Still, the start is more important for fantasy purposes.

 

 

RB BenJarvus Green Ellis UP

I didn’t have BJGE in my top 100 because the Patriots drafted two running backs early last year. However, it appears BJGE will remain the lead back because of the lockout. The Patriots aren’t ready to trust their rookies. He won’t have as many carries as last season (229, with 135 of those coming in the 2^nd half), because they have more running backs capable of carrying the ball, but he should get around 200 carries, including the goal line carries in an explosive offense.

RB Joseph Addai DOWN

I should have put this one in there last time. Manning probably won’t miss any games, but he doesn’t look like he’ll be 100% for a few weeks. That means fewer touchdowns for Addai.

RB Felix Jones UP

Felix Jones looks like he’ll be getting the goal line carries. Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray will still steal carries from him and Jones is still an injury risk who has never been a successful 200+ carry lead back through college and the NFL, but this helps his value.

RB Brandon Jacobs UP

Jacobs and Bradshaw had a 276-147 split in carries (65-35) last season. However, Jacobs and Bradshaw seem to be getting more of an even split this preseason and Tom Coughlin even said that Brandon Jacobs was underworked last season. They had a more even split in the 2^nd half last year 123-79 (61-39) and a 57-47 split in the finally 4 games of last season (55-45). Several believe it could be much closert this year between the two than last year. Bradshaw is also more of an injury risk than Jacobs. Expect around a 240-180 split this season (57-43) if both are healthy. I’m giving 230 to Bradshaw and 190 to Jacobs right now because Bradshaw is more injury and fumble prone. Jacobs will also get the goal line carries.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw DOWN

Jacobs and Bradshaw had a 276-147 split in carries (65-35) last season. However, Jacobs and Bradshaw seem to be getting more of an even split this preseason and Tom Coughlin even said that Brandon Jacobs was underworked last season. They had a more even split in the 2^nd half last year 123-79 (61-39) and a 57-47 split in the finally 4 games of last season (55-45). Several believe it could be much closert this year between the two than last year. Bradshaw is also more of an injury risk than Jacobs. Expect around a 240-180 split this season (57-43) if both are healthy. I’m giving 230 to Bradshaw and 190 to Jacobs right now because Bradshaw is more injury and fumble prone. Jacobs will also get the goal line carries.

 

WR Roy Williams DOWN

Jay Cutler told the media that Roy Williams is out of shape. Some thought he was joking, but I doubt it. I don’t think Jay Cutler knows how to joke. He’s one of the driest players in the league. Williams later confirmed that he’s still getting into shape. Williams hasn’t caught a pass in the last 2 preseason games, though he was targeted three times in their last preseason game. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett got 5 targets a piece from Cutler in their last preseason game. It’s looking like all 4 of Chicago’s receivers, Williams, Bennett, Hester, and Johnny Knox, could all cancel each other out this year, especially since Matt Forte figures to see plenty of balls thrown his way as well. I don’t know if you can draft any of them.

WR Earl Bennett UP

If you’re in a deeper league and looking for value with one of the 4 Chicago receivers, Bennett could be your guy. He caught 46 passes for 561 yards and 3 touchdowns last year and should see a little bit more than that this year.