RB Chris Wells UP

Ryan Williams is done for the season. This is excellent news for Wells. The pick of Williams in the 2^nd round did two things for Chris Wells. It got rid of Tim Hightower, who stole a lot of carries from Wells last year. It also motivated him as he’s reportedly in the best shape of his career. LaRod Stephens-Howling will come in on obvious passing downs, but Wells is going to get the lion’s share of the carries for the Cardinals. Provided he stays healthy, the former first round pick could finish the season as a top 15 or even top 10 running back.

WR Chad Ochocinco UP

Brady targeted Ochocinco 5 times in 19 throws in his 2^nd preseason game, his first start. Ochocinco only caught 2, though he did score. However, it’s very nice to see that the Patriots see Ochocinco as a big part of their offense. They could have the best offense in the league again which means a lot of yards and touchdowns for Ochocinco.

RB LeGarrette Blount DOWN

So much for Blount as the every down back. Earnest Graham will now come into the game on obvious passing downs. However, Graham’s last decent season was 2007 and he’s 31. They still have next to nothing behind Blount on the depth chart and show no interest in signing anyone. Blount could still get close to 300 carries with Cadillac Williams gone.

RB DeAngelo Williams UP

Cam Newton is going to start week 1 for the Panthers. It’s not official, but the Panthers made him their starter for their 2^nd preseason game after another stinkbomb from Clausen in their first preseason game. This change should be official, which is good news for Williams. Just ask LeSean McCoy and Chris Johnson what playing alongside a mobile quarterback did for their YPC. Williams is expected to get a 2-1 split of the carries this season over Jonathan Stewart. If he can stay healthy, he should be poised for another huge year.

RB Jonathan Stewart UP

Stewart won’t get as many carries as he’s used to unless Williams gets hurt (still definitely a possibility). However, his YPC will be helped by playing alongside Cam Newton when he is in the game.

QB Peyton Manning DOWN

Colts Owner Jim Irsay says that the team is preparing for the possibility that Manning misses week 1. My money’s still on him starting, but this hurts his fantasy stock. He could have a slow start to his season.

WR Reggie Wayne DOWN

Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers.

TE Dallas Clark DOWN

Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers.

WR Austin Collie DOWN

Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers.

RB Ryan Grant UP

James Starks is hurt. He shouldn’t miss any games, but, in his absence, Grant has cemented himself as the lead back. He looks very good in games and also in practice, reportedly. He might not finish the season as the starter, but he’ll start the season as the starter, a very good thing considering how explosive this Packers offense is.

RB James Starks DOWN

Starks appears to have lost the lead back role to Ryan Grant. He’ll still see the field as a backup, but not as much as he could have had he had a strong preseason.

 

QB Colt McCoy UP

Colt McCoy looks like the real deal in the preseason. The injuries that slowed him down late last season appear to all be gone and he looks primed for a breakout 2^nd season. He could be this year’s Josh Freeman. I don’t know if I trust him to be a starter, but if I miss out on an elite quarterback and need a high upside backup, McCoy is someone I’d strongly consider.

WR Greg Little UP

McCoy’s favorite target is 2^nd round rookie Greg Little in the preseason. McCoy looks great and if he’s this year’s Josh Freeman, Little could be his Mike Williams. Tons of upside here.

TE Benjamin Watson UP

Any stock up for McCoy is a stock is up for Watson, who was his favorite target last season. Little and Watson seem to be his best two targets by far so both have fantasy value.

QB Joe Flacco DOWN

I should have done this update a while ago, but Flacco has lost two reliable targets in Derrick Mason and Todd Heap. Anquan Boldin is on the decline (30 catches for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 10 games last season, including playoffs) and Flacco never has looked comfortable throwing to Boldin. Mason was always the one he was comfortable throwing to and he’s gone. Lee Evans is in, but he won’t have a lot of time to learn the offense and both of his tight ends are inexperienced. He also has two rookie receivers hurt by the lockout. This will hurt his stats a bit.

WR Lee Evans UP

Flacco was always more comfortable throwing to Mason than Boldin. Evans doesn’t have a lot of time to learn the playbook, which limits him, but Flacco looked comfortable throwing to him in their first preseason game, which makes sense as he’s a similar type player to Mason. I don’t think he gets Mason’s stats from 2010 (61 catches for 802 yards and 7 touchdowns), but I think he’ll be close.

WR Nate Burleson UP

Consider this an omission, but a healthy Matt Stafford is very good for Burleson, the Lions #2 receiver. Burleson and Stafford had good chemistry last season in their limited time together.

WR Danny Amendola UP

St. Louis’ wide receiver situation is probably the most confusing in the league. Whichever two start should be valuable fantasy players with Sam Bradford at quarterback and Josh McDaniels at offensive coordinator. Brandon Gibson, Mike Sims Walker, Danario Alexander, Donnie Avery, and Danny Amendola are all battling for those spots. Only one thing seems to be for sure, Amendola is going to have a big part in the offense. He’s reportedly “head and shoulders” above all wide receivers out there and will probably line up in the slot, the same place he lined up in last year when he caught 85 passes for 689 yards and 3 touchdowns. McDaniels uses a lot of 3 wide sets so Amendola will see plenty of the field and could even be a starter. He is extremely valuable in PPR.

WR Brandon Gibson UP

For what it’s worth, Gibson has started the last two games for the Rams. Of course, Sims Walker missed one of those with an injury and many in the know expect Danario Alexander and/or Donnie Avery to overtake Gibson before the season, but he’s a nice name to keep in the back of your head late or in deep leagues.

WR Danario Alexander DOWN

Alexander has still not moved up to first string and unlike Mike Sims-Walker, you can’t blame injuries here. It’s looking like it’ll be MSW, Gibson, and Amendola as the 3 receivers for the Rams. He might still be worth a roster spot in deep leagues on upside if he does sneak into the starting lineup.

WR Donnie Avery DOWN

Like Alexander, Avery looks like he could be on the outside looking in. Unlike Alexander, there isn’t a lot of upside here. Avery was probably battling Amendola for the slot receiver role. I don’t think he can win that battle given what I’m hearing out of Rams camp.

RB Fred Jackson DOWN

CJ Spiller got the start at running back for the Bills in their 2^nd preseason game roughly 3 weeks after Chan Gailey said he wasn’t satisfied enough with Spiller’s blocking to make him the starter. Apparently that’s changed. Jackson still got action (Spiller got 6 carries with the first team, Jackson got 4) and Jackson was more productive with his carries (34 yards to 10), but I’m moving Jackson down because Spillers looks like he’s going to be more of a factor.

RB CJ Spiller UP

Spiller got the start for the Bills in their 2^nd preseason game. Jackson ran better, but it’s still worth noting that Spiller got the start. He looks like he’s going to be more of a factor than I originally thought this season.

RB Reggie Bush UP

Bush is expected to start for the Dolphins this season and will be given a chance to be a legitimate feature back. Daniel Thomas is still expected to get the goal line looks, but the rookie has struggled this preseason and will be simply a chance of pace back.

RB Daniel Thomas DOWN

Reggie Bush is expected to start in Miami. Thomas will still see some action and get the goal line carries, but Miami’s offense sucks. There won’t be a lot of goal line carries. Also, Thomas had two tries at goal line carries in their 2^nd preseason game and failed on both. He was removed for Lex Hillard, who did punch it in. Thomas is going to be way over-drafted in your league.

 

 

 

WR Donald Driver UP

Driver was in the lineup and looked healthy in his first preseason game this season, after speculation that he could miss time in the regular season. He’s still a 35 year old coming off of knee surgery on both knees so he won’t be player, but I’d feel a lot more comfortable with him as my WR4 now than before.

WR James Jones DOWN

With Driver seemingly healthy, Jones’ chances of breaking into the Packers explosive starting lineup this season got a whole lot slimmer. He’s no longer a fantasy sleeper of mine unless Driver reinjures himself.

WR Terrell Owens UP

Owens has definitely appeared the Batman to Ocho’s Robin, with 10 targets for 6 catches and 41 yards, as opposed to Ocho’s 3 targets for one 4 yard reception. I’m calling Owens the #1 guy in Cincinnati this year, though he’ll have plenty of other receivers to compete with.

WR Chad Ochocinco DOWN

Ochocinco has looked downright horrible in the preseason so far, looking significantly older and slower than Owens. There’s no doubt that Owens is the better receiver, at least now. That may change in a few weeks.

 

WR Steve Smith UP

Any speculation that Smith and his broken arm would not be ready for the season or not in game shape for the season were destroyed when Smith was surprisingly activated from the PUP list a couple weeks before anyone expected him too. Smith was amazing in the 4 games that he and Matt Moore both started, with 398 yards and 3 scores, despite leaving midway through the 4^th game with his first broken arm of the last 9 months. Smith is surprisingly underrated this year.

QB Brett Favre UP

Favre is coming back so it’s safe to call him my 7^th ranked quarterback, which he would have been had there been no threat of retirement. I’m convinced Favre will play until someone doesn’t want him anymore, skipping training camp every time.

WR Percy Harvin DOWN

After passing out at training camp, it’s become painfully obvious that Harvin is nowhere near ready for live NFL action. He remains a major health risk for this season and I can think of plenty of better things to do with a mid round pick than use it on Harvin. It is sad though, because he’s got plenty of talent.

 

 

 

RB Chris Johnson DOWN

It’s looking like Johnson’s hold out could go into the season. Once a top 4 back, I don’t see how you can use a 1^st round pick on him. He wants 13 million a year (he’s nuts) and the Titans aren’t going to give that to him anytime soon. Even if he does play, he’ll be hurt by the holdout and lack of playing time like Darrelle Revis was last season. He won’t be nearly as effective as he could be if he didn’t hold out. If you do draft him, make sure it’s in the 2^nd round and that you draft Javon Ringer, the lead back in his absence, as a handcuff.

TE Chris Cooley DOWN

Cooley could miss at least the first week of the season. For a tight end that was a borderline TE1 already given Washington’s quarterback problem, I think this makes him undraftable. Don’t think about drafting Fred Davis either in his absence. Davis won’t play the whole season and drafting two tight ends doesn’t make any sense, especially when both have absolutely terrible quarterbacks.

WR Jeremy Maclin DOWN

Maclin should be getting back to practice soon and he’s not dying, which is obviously a good thing. However, he could still miss the first week of the season. He’s been really sick this offseason and predictably is not in great shape. It could take him a few weeks to be his old self.

WR Riley Cooper UP

Cooper is an interesting handcuff for Maclin owners. The 2^nd year receiver would likely step into the lineup if Maclin misses any starts. At 6-3, he easily be their best goal line threat and the Eagles offense is so explosive that ever starter is fantasy draftable.

WR DeSean Jackson UP

Jackson also would benefit from Maclin being out of the lineup. He still wouldn’t be a goal line threat or anything, but Cooper opposite him is significantly inferior so Vick would be looking his way much more often.

RB Ray Rice UP

Even with the addition of Ricky Williams, Ray Rice could still see most of the goal line looks, at least early in the season. With Chris Johnson holding out, Rice was already my #3 fantasy back, but he gets so many yards receiving and rushing and he has a new fullback in Vonta Leach. If he can get double digit touchdowns, he could finish the season as the #2 fantasy back behind Arian Foster.

RB Jonathan Stewart DOWN

When John Fox was in town, Williams and Stewart split carries fairly evenly. It doesn’t appear that’s how it’ll be under Ron Rivera. Williams got all the 1^st team carries in the Panthers’ first preseason game. Expect more like a 65-35 split this season than a 55-45 split, at least until Williams gets hurt.

RB DeAngelo Williams UP

He has health problems and quarterback problems, but he’ll run behind a great offensive line and should reach 250 carries if he stays healthy as he appears to be the clear lead back. He got all of the carries with the 1^st team in the Panthers’ first preseason game and he got a giant contract in the offseason.

QB Jay Cutler DOWN

Just in case you thought the Bears offensive line couldn’t be worse than last season, they give up 9 sacks to the Bills in a preseason game. I know it’s just the preseason, but it’s still a very disconcerting sign given how bad their offensive line was last year. I’m downgrading all of the Bears offense a little in fantasy.

WR Johnny Knox DOWN

Knox doesn’t just get downgraded because of their struggles on the offensive line. Knox gets downgraded because the Bears reigning leading receiver was recently benched for both Roy Williams and Devin Hester. They figure to use a lot of 3 receiver sets so Knox should still see the field, but not enough to be a consistent fantasy producer.

WR Roy Williams DOWN

Williams will be their #1 receiver next season, but I have to downgrade him a little because of how bad their offensive line is.

WR Devin Hester UP

Hester, for some reason, will be a starter for the Bears this season. I don’t know if I’d draft him, but it’s something to think about.

 

TE Zach Miller DOWN

Tarvaris Jackson is worse than I thought. I’m downgrading both Miller and Rice, who figure to be Jackson’s leading receivers. Miller has been fantasy startable with JaMarcus Russell as his quarterback before, but he at least looked his way. Jackson didn’t target Miller once in his brief time as a starter in their first preseason game. He has a history of doing this, largely underutilizing Visanthe Shiancoe as a Viking in the past.

WR Sidney Rice DOWN

Rice is a talented player, but he’s coming off an injury, learning a new offense, and his quarterback is absolutely terrible. He’s not a consistent fantasy starter this year.

RB Tim Hightower UP

Hightower got all the Redskins first team carries in their first preseason game. Roy Helu is a rookie and Ryan Torain can’t stay healthy. The Redskins have problems on the offensive line and at quarterback, but so did the Cardinals last year and Hightower still averaged 4.8 yards per carry as the lead back last year.

QB Matt Stafford UP

I didn’t have Stafford ranked in my top 15 because there are questions about his healthy and there are still questions about his ability. He’s still never proven himself in the NFL. He could be very good, but there was a point when we though David Carr, and Alex Smith, and JaMarcus Russell could have been very good. However, Stafford did look very good in his first preseason game, for what it’s worth.

WR Calvin Johnson UP

Obviously, the better Stafford is, the better Calvin Johnson is. Johnson has had 2 amazing seasons in the past 3 years with crappy to mediocre quarterbacks. Imagine what he can do if Stafford turns out to be a legitimate franchise quarterback and plays a 16 game season.

RB LeGarrette Blount UP

Blount is not much of a pass catcher, but with Cadillac Williams gone, he’s staying in on 3^rd downs, for lack of a better option. The Bucs have absolutely nothing behind him on the depth chart (a running back with two career carries, a 6^th round rookie, and an undrafted rookie). He won’t catch a lot of passes, but he should exceed 300 carries unless the Buccaneers sign a legitimate backup for him in free agency.

RB Shonn Greene UP

Greene got all the first and second down carries with the first team in their first preseason game. It appears that LT, who was almost cut in the offseason, will be nothing more than a 3^rd down back and that the 3^rd year Greene will finally get his chance to be their lead back.

RB Montario Hardesty DOWN

Hardesty seems to be the logical choice as the back who keeps Peyton Hillis, who wore down late last season, fresh. However, Hardesty still isn’t 100% off of knee surgery which means Brandon Jackson will be seeing a good amount of the backup carries in Cleveland. Until Hardesty is 100%, he and Jackson should cancel each other out. Don’t draft either of them.

RB Jamaal Charles DOWN

Thomas Jones is listed as first on the depth chart. Todd Haley is nuts. Charles still has some value as a 2nd rounder because he’s so talented, but, with a tougher schedule, expect fewer carries and fewer yards per carry for Charles this season. The only way he would have been worth a first round pick is if he was the lead back, which it appears he’s still not. 

WR Mario Manningham UP

Steve Smith and Kevin Boss are gone. That means more targets will go to Manningham and Nicks.

WR Hakeem Nicks UP

Steve Smith and Kevin Boss are gone. That means more targets will go to Manningham and Nicks.

QB Eli Manning DOWN

Eli Manning will feel the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss this season.

WR Marques Colston DOWN

Colston’s surgically repaired knee is not 100%. It’s still not a huge concern, but it’s a little bit more concerning that it was a couple weeks ago.

WR Lance Moore UP

All 3 of New Orleans’ top receivers have injury problems. Colston’s knee is still not 100%. Robert Meachem battled leg injuries all last season and recently hurt his back in a preseason game. Moore missed most of 2009 with injuries, but is as close to 100% as you can be right now. In 2008, when healthy, he caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2010, when he also was healthy, he caught 66 passes for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns. Expect production similar to those numbers this year, especially with injury questions surrounding Colston and Meachem.

WR Robert Meachem DOWN

Meachem, who dealt with leg injuries last season, hurt his back in the Saints’ first preseason game. It’s not a huge deal, but it’s a sign that this is just an injury prone player. Besides, Lance Moore has reportedly looked much better than him in camp.

 

 

RB Jamaal Charles UP

Charles was so much better than Thomas Jones in his first preseason game, albeit in limited action. Jones looked old on his two carries, managing 2 yards. Charles rushed for 37 yards on 4 carries and looked as good as he did to end last season, showing no signs of an lingering effects from his offseason shoulder injury. I literally cannot fathom how Todd Haley would start Jones over him.

RB Thomas Jones DOWN

Jones sucked in his first preseason game, especially in comparison to Jamaal Charles. I can’t see Jones starting this year or being very effective at all in the carries he gets.

RB Chris Wells DOWN

For someone who is supposedly a big sleeper this year, the fact that Wells barely saw any time with the first team in his first preseason game probably isn’t a good sign. I’m not saying that Tim Hightower is going to win the starting job, but you can’t forget he’s there. This guy did have 206 touches last year, to Wells’ 188. I don’t see any reason why Wells should be going in the 3^rd, as he is on average.

RB Tim Hightower UP

For his value, Hightower is a solid pickup as he’s going in the 110s on average. I wouldn’t mind having this guy as my RB4 in the 9^th or 10^th round. Wells is injury prone which means Hightower could get a start or two this season and the Cardinals made it clear in their first preseason game that they plan on using Hightower in some significant form this year. He’s a great pass catcher and Matt Leinart loves to checkdown.

 

RB Ben Tate DOWN

The possible rookie of the year went down with what appears to be a broken ankle and probably will miss his entire rookie year. Ouch.

RB Arian Foster UP

If Foster was in good position to start the season as Houston’s #1 back before, when Tate went down I think that sealed it. He might have to worry about Steve Slaton taking away some of his carries, but not enough to hurt him significantly. Foster is a great RB2, RB3, or flex option now.

RB Steve Slaton DOWN

He went from having no value to some with Tate’s injury. I still wouldn’t draft him except in deep leagues and only then on the off chance that Foster fumbles and Gary Kubiak goes berserk and chances backs. In the late rounds, I’d rather have someone like Larry Johnson, who has a legitimate chance at being his team’s starting running back at some point this season.

RB Justin Forsett DOWN

Forsett, a popular choice as Seattle’s starting back this year, didn’t get a single first team carry in his first preseason game. This could chance, but I have a hard time believing he’ll be the lead back after seeing that.

RB Julius Jones UP

He’s not talented, but if he becomes the lead back in Seattle he will have some value. How he was utilized in his first preseason game suggests that he could win the starting job. He’d still have to compete with Leon Washington and the much more talented Justin Forsett for carries, but as long as he was the lead back, he’d be a decent flex option, depending on the matchup.

WR Jeremy Maclin UP

Maclin was the most targeted Eagles receiver when Kolb was in the game, a very good sign because I wasn’t sure how the talented 2^nd year receiver would mesh with his new quarterback, given his inexperience.

 

 

WR Johnny Knox UP

I’m hearing from many sources that the 2^nd year receiver is playing amazingly in camp and looks like the favorite to win the #1 receiver job over Devin Aromashodu and Devin Hester. He won’t be a true #1 because the Bears will throw the ball all over the field, but with his speed he’s perfect for Mike Martz’ scheme and he looks like the favorite to lead the Bears in receiving.

WR Devin Aromashodu DOWN

While Knox is playing well, Aromashadu is not living up to the hype. One man’s gain is another man’s loss in Chicago, though I still like Aromashodu’s value for his average draft range.

QB Philip Rivers DOWN

Talks between left tackle Marcus McNeill and the Chargers are far from close. In fact, many reports say they do not even exist. The Chargers are not willing to pay McNeill what he wants and some, such as the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee believe it is a foregone conclusion that McNeill will not report before week 1. Rivers already had Vincent Jackson suspended for 3 weeks and possibly holding out for longer. McNeill is not a Pro Bowl caliber left tackle in my opinion, but he’s in the top 15 in the NFL so this is a huge loss for the Chargers and a huge loss for Philip Rivers, whose blindside all of a sudden looks very, very vulnerable with Brandyn Dombrowski at left tackle rather than McNeill.

RB Ryan Matthews DOWN

In addition to being a solid pass protector, McNeill at 6-7 336 is a hell of a run blocker. On a Chargers line that already struggles to run block, his potential absence when the season starts is going to hurt rookie Ryan Matthews, the Chargers’ primary between the tackles runner.

 

New York Jets Defense DOWN

I’m not ready to call them no longer an elite squad, but do not draft the Jets defense as the first defense off the board until Revis and his island are in camp. You’re probably safer with a defense like Philadelphia, Minnesota, or Pittsburgh.

RB Lynell Hamilton DOWN

Hamilton, who was the favorite in my mind to be the random guy who gets 150 carries for the Saints this year, has suffered a season ending ACL tear in camp.

RB PJ Hill UP

In Hamilton’s absence, Hill looks like the most likely back to steal 150 carries from Pierre Thomas. I am not quite ready to say draft him yet, because there’s always the chance that the Saints decide to run 250 times with Pierre Thomas this year, but keep your eye on him.

RB Pierre Thomas UP

The chances that the Saints cut into Thomas’ carries with a random running back got a lot slimmer when Hamilton’s ACL tore. There’s now a good chance the Saints make him a true feature back and give him 250 carries, which would mean, unless he gets hurt significantly, we would see 1000+ rushing yards, 300+ receiving yards, and 10+ total touchdowns from Thomas easily in the Saints’ high octane offense.

 

 

RB Arian Foster UP

Foster has been working with the first team during camp. I still expect Ben Tate to start the season. They drafted him in the 2^nd round after being clearly discontent with their running game last year so it only makes sense they’d give him the first crack at the job, but Foster did play well in his final 4 games last year with 54 carries for 257 yards, 8 receptions for 93 yards, and 3 scores. His ADP right now is 121 and since he’d be a legitimate fantasy starting running back for a few weeks if he did start the start as starter, that makes him a legitimate fantasy sleeper with upside.

RB Ben Tate DOWN

As I said in Foster’s writeup, I still expect Tate to win the starting job, but I’m moving him down some. Tate is reportedly struggling in camp, though possibly predictably as he is a rookie. Foster is taking the first team reps and Steve Slaton (remember that guy) is impressing as well. There’s a chance that Foster wins the starting job or that Slaton steals some of his carries. Gary Kubiak can be a mad man changing his running backs and if he feels he has three legitimately talented running backs to work with, it’s definitely not good for Tate’s fantasy stock, even if he does feel Tate is the most talented.

RB Knowshon Moreno DOWN

Moreno is hurt once again in training camp and will likely miss the entire preseason. Moreno is talented, but he’s starting to strike me as the type of guy who can’t stay healthy. Plus, after the way he ended last year and considering he still is somewhat unproven, I needed to see him run well in the preseason to be fully confident in him as a strong RB2. Lastly, it is a hamstring injury and those tend to linger, especially slight tears as this is being described as. It could hurt him during the season, causing him to miss games and sap his explosiveness. Just ask Marion Barber circa 2009.

WR Brandon Tate UP

Tate is reportedly impressing at Patriots camp and I’m hearing everywhere that he’s going to be the 3^rd receiver in the Patriots’ offense over veteran Torry Holt. He’s not going to get a ton of carries with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to compete with, but Donte Stallworth had 46 catches for 697 yards and 3 scores in that role in 2007 and that was when Moss and Welker were both younger and healthier. Tate has some fantasy upside this year and makes a decent late round pick.

WR Torry Holt DOWN

Reports out of training camp are not pretty. He could be this year’s Joey Galloway. Don’t draft him.

RB Jamaal Charles DOWN

Thomas Jones is taking the first team reps in camp and is listed as first on the Chiefs’ depth chart. If Todd Haley starts Thomas Jones, who is 32 and had a YPC of 4.2 behind the best run blocking offensive line in football last year, over Charles who had 1417 total yards last year despite not receiving double digit carries until week 10, he is an idiot, but, even though he is the same Todd Haley who started Larry Johnson has his 2.7 YPC for 7 weeks over Charles, and then allowed Kolby Smith to steal carries from him late, I think Charles will still be the starter going into this year. Haley can’t be that stupid. Charles may just be being eased in after a shoulder injury or maybe Haley just likes to give veterans the first crack at the starting job. However, this is not great news for Chiefs fans or Jamaal Charles owners and I do have to knock him down some.

RB Thomas Jones UP

I don’t think he’ll win the starting job, but the fact that the Chiefs are still calling him a starter on August 10^th is good for his fantasy prospects. He’s a great handcuff for Charles.

WR Devin Thomas DOWN

WR Malcolm Kelly DOWN

Both came into the league with a ton of promise after being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2008, but now it seems like neither of them can beat out the veteran Joey Galloway for the first team reps. Don’t draft either of them.

WR Joey Galloway UP

But still don’t draft him. Take someone with upside instead.

 

WR Brandon LaFell UP

As I suspected he could, Brandon LaFell is shining in Steve Smith’s absence and is likely to beat out the terrible Dwayne Jarrett for the #2 receiving job. John Fox doesn’t normally start rookies, but that just goes to show you how talented a 3^rd rounder this kid is and how horrible a receiver Dwayne Jarrett is. Smith is extremely injury prone so LaFell would have major value in his absense and Smith is also 5-9 so the 6-2 LaFell is probably going to be Matt Moore’s favorite goal line wide out. He is some, but not huge fantasy upside this year and is worth a late round pick in some leagues.

WR Hakeem Nicks UP

Reports say Mario Manningham is likely to be the Giants new punt returner, which makes it less and less likely that Manningham is going to start over the 2^nd year Hakeem Nicks this year. Nicks is also getting the first team reps in training camp. My biggest concern with Nicks was not talent, but getting on the field, but I think it’s safe to say he’ll be their #2 receiver when the season starts. Nicks was tied with Percy Harvin for the lead in rookie receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last year despite not being a starter for most of the year so Nicks could approach 1000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns as his team’s main goal line threat.

WR Steve Smith DOWN

Having Nicks opposite him does hurt him near the goal line, since Nicks is such an athletic goal line presence. Smith is still a lock for 100 receptions and 1000+ yards in my mind as their possession receiver and I love his consistency, but don’t expect him to get into the end zone very much this year.

WR Percy Harvin DOWN

Harvin’s chronic migraines are looking like something that could be a major issue for him. He hasn’t practiced in over a week because of them and there appears to be no end in sight. If his migraines ever flared up like this in the season, like they did last year, he would miss games and that would hurt him. This looks like a very concerning situation for the 2^nd year receiver.

RB Rashard Mendenhall UP

Mendenhall is receiving almost all of the goal line reps in camp now, after goal line specialists like Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman failed to impress. We’ll have to see if this continues in games, but this makes Mendenhall one of the few running backs in the NFL to be an every down back. His line has issues and when Big Ben’s out, they’ll be able to load the box against him with ease, but he is still a good first round pick.

RB Cedric Benson UP

Almost forgot to upgrade Benson when TO was signed. TO gives the Bengals a legitimate deep threat so all those 8 man boxes Benson saw last year should be significantly less this year. He’s motivated in a contract year and cleared after his run in with the law earlier this offseason so if he can stay healthy and play 15-16 games, he should be a top 10 running back this year. 

 

Spotlight #1: Auburn OT Brandon Mosley

Spotlight #2: Mississippi RB Brandon Bolden 

1^st quarter

10:37: Bolden with good fight for 7 yards, powers forward through a few tackles.

8:44: Eltoro Freeman with a tackle. He also has a sack and a forced fumble already. He’s someone to keep an eye on.

8:08: Bolden runs into a wall for a loss. Poor vision.

1:32: Bolden breaks one, gets loose, breaks another, drags another trying to catch him from behind for a bunch before going down short of the goal line, 39 yards.

1:09: Bolden finishes what he started, punches it in with great power and effort from 3 yards out, up the middle, touchdown.

2^nd quarter

12:12: Mosley with a good lead block. Mosley, Auburn’s right tackle, had a flawless 4^th quarter in pass protection, but was rarely run behind.

11:49: Mosley not as good with this run block.

10:25: Mosley does a good job of protecting for a long time, eventually allows pressure, but after a long time.

9:27: Bolden to the outside, cuts upfield at perfect time, great vision, good speed in the 2^nd level for 10+ yards.

9:18: Bolden up the middle through a big hole, great burst, great fight, solid gain.

8:08: Bolden takes a pass rusher down with a cut block.

6:04: Bolden gets great blocking and walks in a one yard touchdown.

2:51: Kentrell Lockett recovers a fumble, his 2^nd of the game. He also has a tackle for loss. The 6-5 248 pound 6^th year senior and has been wreaking havoc all game. He’s got talent, but a laundry list of injury problems.

 

3^rd quarter

12:09: Freeman with a huge hit in the backfield, great game for him.

8:04: Mosley gives up pressure, a rare miscue for him in this game.

6:37: Bolden powers up the middle for 3 in little space on 2^nd and 4.

5:38: Bolden shows patience behind his lead blocker and a nice spin on an outside run for 6.

4:28: Bolden with a nice 8 yard run on 3^rd and 2, finds a hole, good vision, not an obvious hole, shifty.

1:41: Mosley blocks to the inside, pancake.

4^th quarter

13:54: Bolden slips before the handoff, ball hits the turf, recovered by Auburn.

9:50: Mosley with a powerful 2^nd level block. He’s impressive.

4:15: Bolden finds a seam, good run for a big gain.

3:50: Bolden catches a check down in space for a few.

3:29: Bolden with a big inside run, ball comes out at the end, but he was down.

0:00: Auburn has two senior offensive tackles, AJ Greene on the left side and Brandon Mosley on the right side. Greene does not have ideal NFL size at 6-5 295 and really struggled in this game blocking Kentrell Lockett, who had one of his best games of the season. Lockett has talent, but has never been able to stay healthy and likely won’t get drafted barring a freak combine. The fact that Greene had trouble with him is a bad sign. I agree with the assessment that he’s probably an undrafted free agent.

Mosley, on the other side, is actually the better pro prospect. He has more ideal size at 6-6 305 and had a great game on the right side in this one. He was near flawless in pass protection, though he wasn’t blocking someone of the caliber of even Lockett. He also held his own as a run blocker. However, the fact that he’s just a right tackle to a likely undrafted free agent has to raise some questions. I don’t think he can be anything other than a right tackle at the next tackle, or even a guard, and I’d say he’s a late day 2 pick.

On the other side, the spotlight was Mississippi running back Brandon Bolden. The 5-11 220 back as all the talent in the world, but he can’t stay healthy. He showed himself to be a powerful between the tackles runner and also a good outside runner. He runs with good pad level and has great vision and shifting ability. He’s also a solid blocker and a good pass protector who caught 32 passes last year.

In this game, he had 118 yards and a score on 13 carries and looked really good, but the fact that he’s never been able to stay healthy or have more than 163 carries in a season is a big red flag. He’s got upside if he can stay healthy, but it’s questionable if he’ll ever been healthy enough to carry the load or be anything more than a backup. He’s also had some inconsistency, with a 2 yard on 5 carry performance against Georgia and he’s never been a dominant statistical player with a carries high 944 yards in 2010.

One other player who had a dominant game was Auburn linebacker Eltoro Freeman. Freeman is a high character leader and a high energy player who had a great game in this one with 12 tackles, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble, as well as a couple big hits for little to no gain. However, with only 55 tackles on the season, it’s tough to see the 5-11 220 pound linebacker get drafted, but he did have a great game here and really seemed to play bigger than his measurables.

 

 

Poor Aubrayo Franklin, he’ll have to try hard for a 3^rd straight season if he wants big money. Franklin was a contract year wonder in 2009, but got franchised by the 49ers for the 2010 season. He once again had a huge year, showing himself to be one of the best run stuffers in the league. However, this is a weird market so he only gets 4 million over 1 year here, an absolute steal for the Saints given their need at defensive tackle. He’s the perfect complement to Sedrick Ellis and once again should have a huge year in his 3^rd straight contract year.

Grade: A

 

 

 

This article marks the start of a new statistical series on this site, giving light to some important statistics that don’t get a lot of, if any, publicity. This first one is passing attempts per sack allowed. It’s a simple concept. Some teams give up a lot of sacks because they have a lot of passing attempts. Some teams give up a lot of sacks because their line isn’t very good. This helps to differentiate between them. Team records are listed next to stats for reference.

1. IND 46.2 (14-2)

2.  NE 32.9 (10-6)

3. TEN 31.7 (8-8)

4. NO 27.2 (13-3)

5. HOU 23.7 (8-8)

6. ARI 22.8 (10-6)

7. ATL 21.1 (9-7)

8. SD 20.0 (13-3)

9. NYG 16.9 (8-8)

10. CIN 16.4 (10-6)

11. DEN 16.4 (8-8)

12. MIN 16.3 (12-4)

13. DAL 16.2 (11-5)

14. CHI 16.1 (7-9)

15. MIA 16.0 (7-9)

16. TB 15.9 (3-13)

17. SEA 14.9 (5-11)

18. CLE 14.8 (5-11)

19. PHI 14.6 (11-5)

20. BAL 14.2 (9-7)

21. CAR 14.1 (8-8)

22. DET 13.6 (2-14)

23. SF 13.2 (8-8)

24. NYJ 13.1 (9-7)

25. STL 12.3 (1-15)

26. KC 11.9 (4-12)

27. JAC 11.8 (7-9)

28. WAS 11.6 (4-12)

29. GB 10.8 (11-5)

30. PIT 10.7 (9-7)

31. OAK 9.9 (5-11)

32. BUF 9.6 (6-10)

Interestingly enough, the top 13 teams were .500 or better last year. Last year’s two Super Bowl teams were in the top 4. Also, 6 of the bottom 8 teams were 7-9 or worse last year, and the two who weren’t were the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have a quarterback that is not mentally phased at all by taking sacks, and the Green Bay Packers. The Packers did give up 51 sacks, but only 14 in their last 8 games, after they got left tackle Chad Clifton back from injury, and resigned right tackle Mark Tauscher out of retirement. In their first 8 games, they had 262 passing attempts. The 37 sacks they gave up in those 262 passing attempts gives them a ratio of 7.1 attempts per sack. They were 4-4 in those games. The 14 sacks they gave up in those 291 attempts after their first 8 games gives them a ratio of 20.8. They were 7-1 in those games with only one 1 point loss to Pittsburgh.

 If this doesn’t prove that having a good offensive line, or at least a quarterback like Peyton Manning who is amazingly adept at reading blitzes, is important to winning games. I don’t know what does. Also, of those bottom 11 teams, 4 of them didn’t draft any offensive linemen in the first 3 rounds. Those 4 teams, Buffalo, Kansas City, Detroit, and Jacksonville are ranked 30, 28, 25, and 23 in my Power Rankings respectively. I don’t make these things up randomly.

 

 

 

Debate the Atlanta Falcons offseason possibilities in The Football Fan Forum

2010 Preview:

In many ways, the Falcons and Panthers are similar teams. I touched on some of the ways in the Panthers’ write up, but both have good young quarterbacks, good running games, good offensive lines, one very talented receiver and decent depth behind him, solid defenses that lack elite pass rushes. I have the Panthers ranked higher though because their running game is that much more potent with two talented running backs, instead of one, to keep each other fresh. The Panthers’ line is also a bit better, as is their secondary.

The Falcons do have the edge in pass rush, especially if John Abraham bounces back this year, and they have Tony Gonzalez at tight end, as well as more experience at quarterback, but overall I think the Panthers are a better team, only slightly. They also have an easier schedule. So overall, I’ll say similar makeups between the two teams, but the Panthers are more talented and have an easier schedule, and I’ll give them the edge, barely.

Projection: 9-7 3rd in NFC South

Power Ranking: 13

Last season: 9-7

Draft:

#19 OLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

With the top 3 defensive ends off the board, it makes a ton of sense for the Falcons to take Weatherspoon. He fills a need and is one of, if not the best available. He’ll make this defense better and be a fan favorite from day 1.

Grade: A

#83 DT Corey Peters (Kentucky)

Peters fits the scheme, but doesn’t really fill much of a need. He’ll probably be their #4 defensive tackle next year and, unless something happens to one of the guys ahead of him on the depth chart, he’ll stay that way for a long time. Peters also didn’t play in a 4-3 in college and is probably being drafted 2 rounds too early here. How are the Falcons going to get to the quarterback? Passing on Everson Griffen for Sean Weatherspoon is one thing, but passing on Griffen again for Peters doesn’t make any sense.

Grade: D

#98 G Mike Johnson (Alabama)

He does fill a need, but passing on Everson Griffen again is stupid. I understand Mike Smith doesn’t like guys who don’t have grade A attitudes, but there’s a point where you almost have to take a guy who has first round talent at a position of huge need and value. This point is that point. Actually, 83 was that point. Still, Johnson is probably a future starter in this scheme.

Grade: B-

#117 C Joe Hawley (UNLV)

A bit of a need, but I had never heard of Hawley before draft day and I had looked at profiles of at least 400 draft NFL prospects and could tell you off the top of my head what I thought of each one of them. He’s a big reach here over Matt Tennant and Eric Olsen and even if he wasn’t, though center is a need, how many interior linemen (either offensive or defensive) do the Falcons plan to draft before they take an end? Greg Hardy? Austin Lane? CJ Wilson? Anybody?

Grade: D

#135 CB Domonique Franks (Oklahoma)

They needed a defensive end, but Franks is a 3^rd round prospect in the 5^th round. He is very raw and the Falcons have some decent #2 and #3 corners, but Franks has more upside than any other corner on this roster aside from Dunta Robinson and there’s nothing wrong with going BPA even when you need a defensive end if the BPA should have been drafted 2 rounds ago.

Grade: A

#165 WR Kerry Meier (Kansas)

Meier is a former quarterback at wide receiver who really lacks breakaway speed or experience in a Pro Style offense, so I’m not too optimistic about his upside, but it is the 6^th round and they do need wide receivers.

Grade: C+

#171 S Shann Schillinger (Montana)

Schillinger was not on my radar to get drafted and the Falcons didn’t really need a safety, but he can push William Moore and play some special teams. But still, as they need a defensive end, I can’t love the positional value.

Grade: D

Overall:

Falcons fans can’t be happy with this draft because it means that the Falcons believe enough in Jamaal Anderson’s ability to stop being a bust or Lawrence Sidbury’s ability to pan out as something more than a nickel rusher to address the defensive end position. Going against Drew Brees and Jimmy Clausen a total of 4 times next year and for presumably the next 5 years, it’s not good if you can’t get to the quarterback. The Falcons had 7 picks and only got two guys that in my mind will be future starters and they were an outside linebacker and a guard. They started out strong, but made a bunch of weird picks and didn’t address their #1 need, a defensive end.

Grade: C-

Key undrafted free agents

K Garrett Lindholm (Tarleton State)

TE Colin Peek (Alabama)

WR Ryan Wolfe (UNLV)

Positions of need:

Cornerback:

The Falcons have a ton of #2 and #3 cornerbacks, but no true shutdown cornerback. They were using Brian Williams for a while, but he got hurt and let’s just say they didn’t miss him. They’ll be targeting a cornerback early this year, some are even saying that the Falcons taking a cornerback in the first is one of the most likely things in the first round. They reportedly like Kyle Wilson a lot and he should be their when they pick at 19, so barring any changes in their opinion of him between now and April, or barring a top defensive end falling to 19, Wilson looks like a likely pick there.

Signed Dunta Robinson, Drafted Domonique Franks (#135) 

Defensive End:

It’s safe to say, after 3 years and 2.5 sacks, than Jamaal Anderson, the former 8^th overall pick, is a bust. They need to move on at the left end positions. The Falcons only had 28 sacks last year, with their team leader with 6, Jonathan Babineaux, being a defensive tackle. John Abraham had a great year in 2008, but only had 5.5 last season and is also on the wrong side of 30. Lawrence Sidbury has promise as a 2009 mid round selection, but he’s not much other than a nickel rusher. However, unless they fall in love with a defensive end’s upside at 19, they will wait until the 3^rd to address this need. After Derrick Morgan, all of the elite defensive ends this year are nothing but upside and Morgan won’t be there at 19. Brandon Graham could be the pick if they view him as a fit for a 4-3 which is uncertain, but most likely I think they go cornerback in the first, and then take a guy like Austin Lane or Brandon Lang in the 3^rd. CJ Wilson and Alex Carrington would also be possibilities if they are looking for someone stronger against the run.Ho

Outside Linebacker:

A return to Mike Smith’s system did not revive Mike Peterson’s career like was expected so they need an upgrade at the position. They may consider Sean Weatherspoon at 19, but Mike Smith is a positional value guy so I don’t think that’s very likely. More likely, they’ll take advantage of the depth of this outside linebacker class and draft a weak side linebacker like Rennie Curran or Dekoda Watson in the 4^th, or a strong side guy like Perry Riley or AJ Edds, and move Stephen Nicholas to the weak side where I think he fits better.

Drafted Sean Weatherspoon (#19) 

Wide Receiver:

Michael Jenkins is a decent run blocker, but a below average wide receiver. If a receiver falls to them that they like, they could pull the trigger. That makes Dez Bryant a possibility at 19.

Drafted Kerry Meier (#165) 

Tight End:

Tony Gonzalez was a nice addition last offseason, but he only has one year left on his deal and, though I expect him to return, he’s also in the twilight of his career and could be getting ready to hang them up and wait for the Hall of Fame call. This isn’t a pressing need this offseason, but if a tight end they like falls to them, they could pull the trigger. They make also want to add a better run blocking tight end.

Defensive Tackle:

Both Babineaux and Peria Jerry are under tackles that weigh less than 300 pounds. They may want to add some meat into the defensive tackle rotation in the late rounds.

Drafted Corey Peters (#83) 

 

Free agents:

QB DJ Shockley 

QB Chris Redman- resigned 2 years 5 million

RB Jerious Norwood (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

RB Jason Snelling (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.6 million

WR Brian Finneran- resigned 

OT Tyson Clabo (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.5 million

G Harvey Dahl (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.5 million

G Quinn Ojinnaka (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million

CB Brent Grimes (restricted)- resigned

CB Brian Williams- resigned 1 year 

CB Tye Hill- signed with Titans one year

S Jamaal Fudge (restricted)

S Antoine Harris (restricted)

S Charlie Peprah (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Packers

P Michael Koenen (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.7 million

Offseason moves:

Falcons waive QB D.J. Shockley 

Falcons re-sign RB Jerious Norwood

Falcons re-sign P Michael Koenen

Falcons re-sign RB Jason Snelling

Falcons re-sign G Harvey Dahl

Falcons re-sign OT Tyson Clabo

Falcons re-sign G Quinn Ojinnaka

Falcons cut CB Tye Hill

Falcons re-sign CB Brent Grimes

Falcons trade CB Chris Houston to Lions for 2010 6th-rounder and exchange of 2010 5th-rounders

Falcons sign CB Dunta Robinson

Falcons re-sign QB Chris Redman

Falcons re-sign CB Brian Williams

Falcons tender RB Jason Snelling

Falcons tender P Michael Koenen

Falcons tender G Harvey Dahl

Falcons tender RB Jerious Norwood

Falcons tender OT Tyson Clabo

Falcons tender G Quinn Ojinnaka

Falcons re-sign WR Brian Finneran