Year: 2012

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 18 (-10)

Record: 1-2

The Buccaneers are one of the few teams I’ve underrated before the season that’s actually become overrated 3 weeks into it. The Buccaneers have hung tough, on the scoreboard, with the Giants and Cowboys and beat the Panthers, but they’re not playing that well. They rank dead last in the league in yards per play differential, with a -2.0. No other team has one worse than -1.0. They’ve had a tough schedule, but they’ve looked completely inept on both sides of the ball. They’re winning the turnover battle (+4), but you can’t rely on that going forward. They’ve also lost starting defensive end Adrian Clayborn for the season. At the end of the year, look for this team to be right around where they were last year, maybe a little better.

Studs

MLB Mason Foster: 7 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 catches for 17 yards on 3 attempts

DT Gerald McCoy: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback pressures on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 3 stops

LE Michael Bennett: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback pressures on 37 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

QB Josh Freeman: 10 of 28 for 110 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 drops, 2 throw aways, 52.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 30 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 5, 1 drop)

WR Mike Williams: Caught 2 passes for 33 yards on 5 attempts on 32 pass plays, 2 drops, 4.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR Vincent Jackson: 1 catch for 29 yards on 7 attempts on 33 pass plays, 1.0 YAC per catch

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Miami Dolphins: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 28 (-1)

Record: 1-2

They’ve got a very tough and underrated defense and they’ll play spoiler to a few teams as underdogs (like they almost did last weekend), but their offensive ineptitude is going to keep this team as one of the worst in the league. Ryan Tannehill is not a capable NFL quarterback yet and the team’s offensive leader, running back Reggie Bush, has injured his knee and is questionable going forward. That’s hardly surprising given his history.

Studs

LT Jake Long: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 5 attempts

LG Richie Incognito: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 43 yards on 6 attempts

WR Davone Bess: 5 catches for 86 yards on 6 targets on 37 pass snaps, 4.2 YAC per catch

MLB Karlos Dansby: 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 5 stops, allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 quarterback hurry on 11 blitzes

CB Sean Smith: Did not allow a catch on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles

LE Cameron Wake: 3 quarterback hits and 8 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 7 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

RT Jonathan Martin: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

WR Anthony Armstrong: 2 catches for 9 yards on 6 targets on 19 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 3 drops

WR Brian Hartline: 1 catch for 41 yards on 8 targets on 39 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 1-2

The Jaguars beat the Colts in Indianapolis, but you have to be concerned with how Blaine Gabbert did against a banged up Colts defense that wasn’t very good to begin with. Gabbert went 10 of 21 for 155 yards and a touchdown with 80 of those yards coming on one play to Cecil Shorts where the receiver did most of the work. He only won because of that aforementioned play and Maurice Jones-Drew looking vintage, rushing for 177 yards and a score on 28 carries. The Jaguars rank 30th in the league in yards per play differential and I feel that as they get healthier, in the long run, the Colts are going to be the slighter better team because of their quarterback play. The Jaguars are one of 15 teams with a record of 1-2. They’ll be in that chunk of currently 1-2 teams that ends up with a horrible record.

Studs

RB Maurice Jones-Drew: Rushed for 177 yards (71 after contact) and a touchdown on 28 carries, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 16 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Paul Posluszny: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 52 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection

LOLB Russell Allen: 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 33 yards on 4 attempts, 1 penalty

FS Dwight Lowery: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

P Bryan Anger: 6 punts for 321 yards, 1 inside 20, 4 returns for 29 yards, 45.3 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Guy Whimper: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 26 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempts

WR Justin Blackmon: 1 catch for 7 yards on 5 targets on 24 pass plays, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LE Jeremy Mincey: 1 quarterback hurry on 51 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Oakland Raiders: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-2

Still not sold on this team as being anything better than one of the best teams in the league. Their upset win over the Steelers was not completely shocking given how much the Steelers have sucked over the last year plus on the road. They are -43 on the road in that time period, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year. Given that they were missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last weekend, this upset was not shocking. There’s a reason I made it a very small pick even though Pittsburgh had the clear on paper advantage. The Raiders are one of 15 1-2 teams in the NFL right now. Some of them are going to make the playoffs, some of them are going to be terrible. I think this team is one of the latter.

Studs

C Stefen Wisniewski: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 82 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts

RG Mike Brisiel: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LT Jared Veldheer: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yards on 1 attempt

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: Allowed 5 catches for 28 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

SS Tyvon Branch: Allowed 2 catches for 9 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

Duds

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 8 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles

FS Matt Giordano: Allowed 4 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

DT Tommy Kelly: Did not record a pressure on 34 pass rush snaps, no tackles

Cleveland Browns: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-3

In a year where up is down and down is up, one thing has remained constant, the Browns suck. Of the only 2 remaining 0-3 teams left in the NFL, the Browns are the one that isn’t even the slightest bit surprising. They are currently in the lead in the Blow for Barkley sweepstakes and should remain on the pole throughout the season.

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 50 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 19 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

Duds

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 50 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 carries

WR Greg Little: 2 catches for 17 yards on 4 targets on 48 pass plays, 1 drop, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

RE Juqua Parker: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Week 4 Fantasy Football Drops

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Fantasy Football Drops

Hey guys! I know what you’re thinking. Week 4 is approaching and by now you absolutely hate all of your useless sleepers you picked up ages ago in your draft and you’re itching to get your hands on some of these shiny new studs. But you’re afraid to pull the trigger on letting go of a potential handcuff or sleeper. That’s where I come in.

Here’s 5 guys owned in over 50% of leagues that you should feel free to jump ship on if you have the chance to pick up a new stud.

  1. Jonathan Dwyer, PIT (owned in 50.1% of leagues) – I’m with you. I thought for sure he would be the saving grace of the Steelers’ run game this fall before Mendenhall got back, but look at the facts. It’s Redman’s job, and when it’s not Redman’s job it’s the young Batch’s job, and when it’s not the young Batch’s job it’s Rainey’s job. And pretty soon it will be Mendenhall’s job again. Too much uncertainty, time to bail on him.
  2. Mike Williams, TB (owned in 57.6% of leagues) – Again, I’m with you. I thought for sure this would be a bounce back year for Williams. I thought VJax would gobble up all the coverage and leave Williams free to repeat his rookie season, but that’s not the case. His targets are low, and if you’re starting him you’re just praying for a TD reception, which are impossible to predict.
  3. Felix Jones, DAL (owned in 71.6% of leagues) – Don’t be that guy who won’t stop claiming Felix Jones is primed for his break out year. Just don’t. Felix Jones will never have a break out year, and soon he will quietly disappear into fantasy irrelevance.
  4. Toby Gerhart, MIN (owned in 80% of leagues) – Unless you own AP in a deep league (12+ teams) you don’t need Gerhart. AP is a superhuman monster who needs no backing up. Nothing more to see here.
  5. Roy Helu, WAS (owned in 80.6% of leagues) – Roy Helu will probably have a 20+ point game at some point this year. The problem is you have no idea when that will happen, and he’ll have a dozen < 5 point performances. He’s not worth the headache.

There you have it, 5 guys you should drop with confidence. Now go check out this to see who to replace them with.

Kate Potter is an amateur football analyst and a semi-pro fantasy football player. She freelances for several sports websites and helps manage NFL Betting Lines Guide, a unique betting experience which compares all the betting lines for the top sports gambling sites and offers betters a look at the best line available.

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Week 4 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Waiver Claims

RB Tashard Choice (Buffalo)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.3%

Fred Jackson is hurt and now so is CJ Spiller. Tashard Choice looked good in their absence this week, rushing for 91 yards on 20 carries. He should continue to get the bulk of the carries until one of them returns. He should be owned in all formats because he could be starting this week against New England.

QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.1%

Locker is 67 of 104 (64.4%) for 781 yards (7.5 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in 3 games. That’s not too shabby. He looked much more comfortable in his 3rd career start last week with his top two receivers back healthy, completing 29 of 42 for 378 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also adds a little bit on the ground with 67 yards on 8 carries (sadly more than Chris Johnson has all year). Pick him up because he’s startable as a bye week filler or a low end QB1 in deep leagues (he’s been my starting QB in a 14 team league all year).

QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.2%

Christian Ponder is the most improved of the five 2nd year quarterbacks. Percy Harvin has emerged as a legitimate #1 receiver now than the coaching staff is using him properly. Kyle Rudolph has stepped up in his 2nd season and his offensive line is doing a much better job. He’s completed 68 of 97 for 713 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions through 3 games and going 21 of 35 for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 49ers proves he can do it against tough competition. He’s also rushed for 41 yards and a score. Pick him up because he’s startable as a bye week filler.

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.6%

Through 3 games, Rudolph has been Ponder’s 2nd favorite target, catching 13 passes for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s a low end starting tight end and a great bye week filler.

RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.0%

For the 2nd straight week, Bilal Powell has stolen some of Shonn Greene’s carries and looked better running the football than he has. He could continue to eat into Greene’s carries and eventually could be the starter. Greene just isn’t very good. He’s worth a bench stash.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.0%

Michael Turner struggled in the first 2 games and as a result, the Falcons decided to get Jacquizz Rodgers more involved in the offense this week. Rodgers had almost as many touches (15) as Turner (16). Though Turner ran better than he had in the first 2 games, (Turner did outgain Rodgers 81 to 67, both scored a touchdown), but this could still be a sign of things to come. Turner is an aging back and who has only run well in 1 of 3 starts and Rodgers is a better fit for their pass heavier offense. He’s worth a bench stash.

TE Brandon Myers (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.1%

If you need a bye week filler tight end over the next few weeks, give this guy a look. He’s not flashy, but he’s consistent and he’s caught 15 passes for 206 yards in the first 3 games, though he has yet to score. You can do better than him, but you can do a lot worse.

WR Julian Edelman (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.6%

Just as I expected, Edelman was a big part of the offense with Aaron Hernandez out as he was targeted a team leading 7 times in the first half. Unfortunately, his production wasn’t great as he left with a hand injury, so he caught just 4 passes for 28 yards and a touchdown, but he should be back next week and he should be equally involved in the offense. He’s worth a bench stash at the very least.

To see who to drop, click here.

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Inconsistency of turnovers

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks

I talk a lot about the inconsistency of turnovers on a week to week basis in my picks. Here’s a little bit more into that and why I prefer to rely on yards per play differential rather than turnover differential.

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 6 or more win the turnover battle by an average of +0.4 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.0 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 4 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.4 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 4 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.4 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 3 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 2 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 1 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.0 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 0 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 1 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 2 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.2 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 4 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 5 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.6 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 6 or more win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

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Colts’ Austin Collie listed as probable, Dwight Freeney won’t play

stevenlourie Colts, News

Austin Collie suffered a concussion this preseason, his 4th in the last 21 months, but it was a minor one and it looked like he would be back for week 1. He practiced before week 1, but was not cleared and the same thing happened week 2. It’s very likely he just did not get clearance from a doctor. This week, he went through the same routine at the beginning of the week, but it looks like he’s finally been cleared as the Colts have listed him as probable on their injury list.

It’s unclear what his role is, but the uncertain makes both him and Donnie Avery poor fantasy options this week. It’s worth noting that, before the injury, Collie was Andrew Luck’s favorite target in the preseason and the last time he had a capable quarterback, he ranked 9th in the league in yards per route run in 2010, before getting hurt. He should be owned in all leagues and monitored because he could end up being startable in the future as the #2 option on a good passing attack.

Meanwhile, top pass rusher Dwight Freeney is once again expected to miss this week. He’s been out since leaving week 1 with a high ankle sprain. Fortunately, the Colts have a bye next so there’s a good chance he’ll be back after that for week 5. The Jaguars, their opponent this week, are missing two starters on the offensive line so the Colts should be able to pressure Blaine Gabbert, who tend to struggle under pressure, often, even without Freeney. They still have Robert Mathis and 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes showed some live in Freeney’s absence last week, with a sack and 2 quarterback hurries.

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Jets expect Darrelle Revis to play, rule Dustin Keller out

stevenlourie Jets, News

Darrelle Revis missed last week against the Steelers with a concussion and he was really missed as the Steelers beat the Jets 27-10 on the strength of a very strong performance from Ben Roethlisberger (24 of 31 for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns) that probably would not have happened if Revis were in the lineup. This week, however, the Jets get Revis back for a divisional clash with the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins put up 35 points on the board against a pathetic Raiders defense last week, but that probably won’t happen again this week. Reggie Bush won’t have the 172 yards and 2 touchdowns he had last week against a perennially good Jets run defense that held the Steelers to 66 yards on 28 carries last week, thanks to the return of stud nose tackle Sione Pouha. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill, who was 18 of 30 for 200 yards and a touchdown last week, will find life much harder without Bush exploding for a huge game and with Revis and Antonio Cromartie covering his crappy receivers instead of Patrick Lee and Shawntae Spencer.

Still, the Dolphins are at home and they have a sneaky good defense and have dating back to last year, when they ranked 6th in scoring. Mark Sanchez is coming off a horrendous game (10 of 27 for 138 yards and a touchdown) and if he continues to struggle, the Dolphins could win a close one at home. In won’t help that he’ll be without starting tight end Dustin Keller, his leading receiver in 2011, once again in this one. The Jets are also in a dreaded breather game situation as favorites before being underdogs and after losing as underdogs. Teams in that situation are 49-77 ATS since 2008. The Jets play the 49ers next week. The Jets should be on upset alert.

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