1. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)
Another one of the other weird statistical things about the Lions in 2012 was Calvin Johnson sitting the single season receiving record (surpassing Jerry Rice in week 16 no less), but scoring just 5 times. That total should increase for some of the same reasons that Stafford’s should. He probably won’t have a record setting season again, but he’s by far the best receiver on a team that passes a ridiculous amount, has a good young quarterback, and doesn’t have a lot of other passing options. He’s consistently able to beat double and triple teams and the 96 catches for 1681 yards he had in 2011 now seem like a floor. He should have around 1700 receiving yards again and almost definitely will break double digit touchdowns again.
Projection: 110 catches for 1750 receiving yards 12 touchdowns (247 pts standard, 357 pts PPR)
2. WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)
Bryant has always had all the talent in the world and, as is often the case with wide receivers, he finally put everything together in his 3rd year in the league in 2012, catching 92 passes for 1382 yards and 12 touchdowns and playing in all 16 games for the first time. He also closed 2012 incredibly well, catching 50 passes for 879 yards and 10 touchdowns in his final 8 games. This off-season has actually been his first without any sort of off the field distraction so he could be even better in 2013. He finally seems to have turned a corner.
Projection: 94 catches for 1440 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns (216 pts, 310 pts PPR)
3. WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)
AJ Green has blossomed into one of probably the top-3 wide receivers in the league before even entering the magical wide receiver 3rd year breakout year. He’s one of the top fantasy receivers (and real life receivers) in the game and I don’t see any reason why this year should be any different for him.
Projection: 100 catches for 1400 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (200 pts, 300 pts PPR)
4. WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)
Thomas also broke out in 2012, catching 94 passes for 1430 yards and 10 touchdowns. He might not reach those numbers again, but Welker’s presence won’t eat too much into his targets as he operates in a completely different part of the field, serving as the primary deep threat. Decline by Peyton Manning as he ages is more of a threat to Thomas than anything, but he remains a WR1.
Projection: 85 catches for 1300 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns (196 pts standard, 281 pts PPR)
5. WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)
Randall Cobb is going in his 3rd year in the league, a frequent breakout year for receivers and there’s definitely to possibility of a breakout for him. Cobb was 11th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers averaging 2.26 yards per route run, so he was an incredibly efficient target. However, he needs to cut down on the drops (of the 22 incompletions Rodgers threw to him, 11 were drops) and he needs to show more on the outside for the Packers to give him more snaps. I like his chances with Jennings gone, Nelson hurt, and Jones possibly losing playing time to the superior Cobb. Cobb might be a healthier Percy Harvin with a better quarterback. You can always count on him to get you another extra 100 yards on the ground too.
Projection: 93 catches for 1130 receiving yards 11 total touchdowns 10 carries for 100 yards (189 pts standard, 282 pts PPR)
6. WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)
Julio Jones is heading into his 3rd year in the league, a year when receivers tend to break out, as if a receiver who caught 79 passes for 1198 yards and 10 touchdowns in his age 23 season could break out any more. I expect him to be their leading receiver though.
Projection: 80 catches for 1240 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (184 pts standard, 264 pts PPR)
7. WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)
After Brandon Marshall, who caught 118 passes for 1508 yards and 11 touchdowns on 181 attempts, no one else on the Bears had more than 44 catches (Matt Forte), 375 yards (Earl Bennett), 3 touchdowns (Alshon Jeffery), or 59 targets (Forte). Marshall was targeted on an absurd 181 on 462 aimed passes, 39.2%. That makes your passing game so predictable and one dimensional and is a big part of reason why 7 of the team’s 16 interceptions came on throws to Marshall. This year, there’s more talent around Marshall, which could hurt his production (though not too much as the Bears will pass more and he’ll see fewer triple teams), but it’ll definitely help their offense as a whole.
Projection: 91 catches for 1250 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (179 pts standard, 270 pts PPR)
8. WR Andre Johnson (Houston)
The Texans got a vintage year from Andre Johnson in 2012, as he caught 112 passes for 1598 yards and 4 touchdowns, leading the NFL in yards per route run with 3.01 and ranking 2nd in the NFL in yards overall behind Calvin Johnson (who played over 200 more pass snaps). Those yards were actually a career high and those catches were 2nd in his career, pretty impressive considering he has 818 catches for 11,254 yards over 10 seasons. It was also unexpected considering he was 31 years old and coming off a season in which he played in just 7 games with injury. However, Johnson has still missed 12 games in the last 3 seasons and is going into his age 32 season. The concerns about him before last season had merit. They just didn’t prove to be an issue, but they could be this season. He’s also never had double digit touchdowns and scored just 4 times last season.
Projection: 91 catches for 1300 receiving yards 7 total touchdowns (172 pts standard, 263 pts PPR)
9. WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)
Cruz didn’t match the 82 catches for 1536 yards and 9 touchdowns he had in 2011, but it would have been unreasonable to expect him to do that. He still caught 86 passes for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns and he could do even better than that this season. His one issue last season was his 12 drops.
Projection: 84 catches for 1170 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (171 pts standard, 255 pts PPR)
10. WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)
Bowe caught just 59 passes for 801 yards and 3 touchdowns in 13 games in 2012, the 2nd worst season of his career, but that’s actually pretty impressive considering his quarterback play. Now he gets to play in a pass heavy offense under Andy Reid with arguably the best quarterback he’s ever played with (compared to Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn) and he’s a great fit for a West Coast offense. He’s quietly one of the better receivers in the NFL in Kansas City and the arrow is definitely pointing up for him. He could surpass his career highs of 86 catches (2008) and 1162 yards (2010), though the 15 touchdowns he caught in 2010 remain largely a fluke.
Projection: 88 catches for 1220 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns (170 pts standard, 258 pts PPR)
11. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)
One of the great receivers of his generation, Larry Fitzgerald has sadly never really had great quarterback play, except for those couple Warner years, but he’s always produced. Last year, however, was too much for even him to handle as Arizona’s pathetic quarterback play limited him to 71 catches for 798 yards and a career low 4 touchdowns. From 2005-2011, Fitzgerald averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games and he’s only missed 4 games with injury in his career. Carson Palmer isn’t great or anything, but he should be able to allow Fitzgerald to bounce back in a big way and approach those averages.
Projection: 80 catches for 1200 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (168 pts standard, 248 pts PPR)
12. WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)
7/28/13: With Maclin going down for the season, DeSean Jackson should see an increase in targets. He’s currently the 32nd wide receiver off the board on average, going in the 7th or 8th round range, but he should be his team’s leading receiver by far and he’ll give you added value on the ground as well. He’s a nice value.
Jackson has rushed just 54 times in his career in 5 seasons, going for 371 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he could see that number increase this season as he’s expected to be used somewhat in that DeAnthony Thomas role. He won’t get a ton of carries, but the Eagles will do a lot of things to get the ball in his hands because of his speed. He’ll probably also see more short throws and screens than he normally does, as they attempt to get him the ball in space, and could easily surpass his career high 62 receptions, though he probably won’t reach his career 17.5 yards per reception average.
Projection: 67 catches for 1000 receiving yards 8 total touchdowns 25 carries for 170 rushing yards (165 pts standard, 232 pts PPR)
13. WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)
7/28/13: Smith gets a stock up with Pitta going down because he’s really their only reliable receiver remaining. The Ravens are really hoping that the talented young receiver finally puts everything together and has a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league and even if he doesn’t take a big leap forward in terms of his play, he should have a much better statistical year based purely on the sheer number of targets he’ll receive.
The Ravens will need Torrey Smith to step up opposite him as the new #1 receiver with Anquan Boldin gone. Smith has flashed in his first two years in the league after the Ravens took him in the 2nd round in 2011, catching 50 passes for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011 and 49 passes for 855 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2012, but he’s yet to put it all together as a consistent receiver and something more than just an inconsistent deep threat. However, going into his 3rd year in the league, a year when young receivers typically breakout, he’s got a very good chance to. With Boldin gone, he should get a career high in targets and have his best statistical season, possibly going over 1000 yards.
Projection: 63 catches for 1100 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns (164 pts standard, 227 pts PPR)
14. WR Roddy White (Atlanta)
Roddy White is heading into his age 32 season, so some statistical drop off is to be expected. He’s already noticeably less explosive than he was in his prime and he averaged just 3.6 yards average catch per catch last season. He’s much more of a possession receiver than anything else at this point in his career, though a very good one at that.
Projection: 85 catches for 1200 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (162 pts standard, 247 pts PPR)
15. WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)
Jordy Nelson caught 68 passes for 1263 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2011 and was off to an equally good season in 2012. Nelson caught 40 passes for 532 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in the first 7 games of last season. That’s 91 catches for 1216 yards and 11 touchdowns over 16 games. However, a hamstring problem cost him 4 games and limited him in others. There was definitely bounce back potential, but he recently needed knee surgery and, however minor it was, it’s never what you want to hear. His status for week 1 is now doubtful. I still expect a bounce back year somewhat, but it hurts his stock.
Projection: 78 catches for 1080 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (162 pts standard, 240 pts PPR)
16. WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)
The Buccaneers signed Vincent Jackson to a 5-year 55.5 million dollar contract last off-season that appeared risky at the time. Jackson, who had previously held out 10 games because he wanted to get paid, appeared to just be chasing the money going to Tampa Bay and could have easily just coasted. He was also going into his age 29 season so he was on the downside of his prime and probably wouldn’t get any better. However, Jackson somehow turned in the best season of his career, catching 72 passes for 1384 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Projection: 65 catches for 1200 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (162 pts standard, 227 pts PPR)
17. WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)
Marques Colston gets a reputation for being injury prone and he has had a bunch of knee surgeries, but he’s only missed 10 games in 7 seasons and he’s been nothing if not reliable. With the exception of 2008 (when he played a career low 11 games), he’s caught 70 passes for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns in every season of his career. Last season, he once again had big time production, catching 83 passes for 1132 yards and 10 touchdowns while not missing a game. He’s only 30 and he has great chemistry with Drew Brees so he should once again be Drew Brees’ top receiver.
Projection: 80 catches for 1070 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (155 pts standard, 235 pts PPR)
18. WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)
Shorts averaged 2.31 yards per route run last season, 8th in the NFL behind Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, and AJ Green. In his 9 starts, he caught 47 passes for 774 yards and 5 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 84 catches for 1386 yards and 9 touchdowns over 16 games. He probably won’t reach those aforementioned extrapolated stats because defenses will key in on him more this year, but he has a very good chance to be Jacksonville’s first 1000 yard receiver since Jimmy Smith in 2005.
Projection: 70 catches for 1100 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (152 pts standard, 222 pts PPR)
19. WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)
Despite playing through injuries, Garcon had 633 yards on 215 routes run last season, good for 2.94 yards per route run, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers behind Andre Johnson. He was targeted 63 times, giving him a very impressive yard per target rate of over 10 per and with 63 targets on 215 routes run, he was by far Robert Griffin’s favorite target to throw to when he was on the field. Griffin was also very efficient when throwing to him, completing 69.8% of his passes for 10.0 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, a QB rating of 116.7, 14th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. It’s clear that Garcon has a ton of upside in his role in Washington’s offense. As long as he and Griffin can stay healthy, they he can put up big numbers. It’s a risk, but there’s a ton of upside here.
Projection: 70 catches for 1100 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (152 pts standard, 222 pts PPR)
20. WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)
Nicks essentially missed 4 games last season and was limited in others, catching just 53 passes for a career low 692 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, remember, he averaged 78 catches for 1122 yards and 9 touchdowns per season in 2010 and 2011 despite missing 4 combined games in those 2 seasons. He’s never played a full 16 game set and I wouldn’t expect that to change this season, but I like his chances to get back over 1000 yards and give the Giants two 1000 yard receivers.
Projection: 71 catches for 1020 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (150 pts standard, 221 pts PPR)
21. WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)
Jackson’s presence reinvigorated Mike Williams, who no longer had to deal with opponent’s #1 cornerbacks. Williams himself also deserves credit for getting himself back into shape after a miserable 2nd season in the league in 2011. All of this led to the 2010 4th round pick totaling 63 catches for 996 yards and 9 touchdowns opposite Jackson. Williams was 4 yards away from giving the Buccaneers two 1000 yard receivers, something only Denver (Thomas/Decker), New Orleans (Colston/Moore), Atlanta (White/Jones), and Dallas (Bryant/Witten) could also say.
Projection: 65 catches for 1000 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (148 pts standard, 213 pts PPR)
22. WR Danny Amendola (New England)
I won’t project Amendola to match the 112 catches Welker averaged per season in New England. Welker’s biggest advantage over Amendola is his sturdiness. Welker missed just 3 games in 6 seasons with the Patriots, while Amendola has played in just 42 of 64 possible games to this point in his career. On top of that, Welker’s greatest talent was his chemistry with Tom Brady and that’s something Amendola might not necessarily have. Welker was never a big touchdown threat either, scoring an average of 6.2 times per season in 6 years. However, he’ll clearly be a big part of the offense should he stay healthy.
Projection: 100 catches for 1100 receiving yards and 6 total touchdowns (146 pts standard, 246 pts PPR)
23. WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)
Brown caught 42 passes for 499 yards in the first 8 games of last season, continuing where he left off the previous season, when he caught 35 passes for 677 yards in the final 8 games of the season. However, injuries to Roethlisberger and his own personal injuries slowed him down in the 2nd half of last season. Still, he doesn’t have a history of injury issues and he’s the clear #1 receiver now. He’s never really been a touchdown guy, catching just 7 touchdowns in his first 3 seasons in the league, but with Mike Wallace gone that should change.
Projection: 78 catches for 1030 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (145 pts standard, 223 pts PPR)
24. WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)
Wayne turns 35 this November. Over the next 2-4 years, Wayne can be expected to go from top flight receiver to complementary player to gone. That’s just what happens to receivers around this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Wayne already showed some signs of slowing down in the 2nd half of last season, catching “just” 45 passes for 520 yards and 2 touchdowns. He could have another big year, but let him be someone else’s problem.
Projection: 75 catches for 1020 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (138 pts standard, 213 pts PPR)
25. WR Eric Decker (Denver)
After largely being a non-factor in his first 2 years in the league, the 2010 3rd round pick Decker caught 85 passes for 1064 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. However, Wes Welker will eat much more into his targets than Demaryius Thomas so I don’t expect him to reach those numbers again.
Projection: 70 catches for 900 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns (138 pts standard, 208 pts PPR)
26. WR Steve Smith (Carolina)
Steve Smith remains the #1 receiver, catching 73 passes for 1174 yards and 4 touchdowns, but it’s unclear how much longer he can do that for, as he’s going into his age 34 season. Over the next 2-4 years, Smith can be expected to go from top flight receiver to complementary player to gone. That’s just what happens to receivers around this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37.
Projection: 62 catches for 1020 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (132 pts standard, 194 pts PPR)
27. WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)
Lance Moore had 1000 yards last year, catching 65 passes for 1041 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s an underrated receiver who has the talent to be an incredibly productive receiver when he has an opportunity and the starting job opposite Colston is all his, but he’s had a history of injuries, so that’s a concern.
Projection: 60 catches for 880 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (130 pts standard, 190 pts PPR)
28. WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)
8/26/13: It doesn’t look like TY Hilton is going to beat out veteran Darrius Heyward-Bey for a starting job. Hilton had 26 catches for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games last season, despite making just 1 start, but the Colts are planning on using more two-tight end sets and fewer three-wide receiver sets this season with Bruce Arians gone and Pep Hamilton coming in. They also won’t emphasis the deep passing game as much as they did last season, when Luck led the NFL in pass attempts 20+ yards downfield through the air, which is where Hilton wins as a route runner. He could still beat out DHB at some point this season and I think he’d be a better pick for the starting job, but he’s being overdrafted at his current ADP in the 6th round.
Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. I don’t have the numbers for the descending rounds, but they are almost definitely lower. And Hilton, a 3rd round rookie, greatly exceeded these first round numbers, catching 50 passes for 861 yards and 7 touchdowns. In his 2nd year in the league, he should improve on those numbers. Donnie Avery is gone so Hilton is expected to be a starter and Reggie Wayne is aging. In his final 8 games of last season, he caught 26 passes for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games, almost more yardage than Reggie Wayne. He’s a dark horse to lead this team in receiving.
Projection: 58 catches for 940 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (130 pts standard, 188 pts PPR)
29. WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)
Johnson has been very consistent with 82/1073/10, 76/1004/7, and 79/1046/6 seasons and hasn’t missed a game despite playing through various ailments, but he could see his numbers dip this season. He has a raw rookie quarterback and the Bills will run more. He’s largely a volume receiver, averaging 138 targets per season, but could see that drop down to 120 this season.
Projection: 63 catches for 900 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (126 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)
30. WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)
Anquan Boldin had a great post-season last year and is their #1 wide receiver after the injury to Michael Crabtree, but he’ll probably be overdrafted. He turns 33 in October and while his production has been hanging in the 837-921 yard range over the last 3 seasons, I think it’s unlikely he gets across that 1000 yard threshold this year and he certainly won’t match Michael Crabtree’s 1105 yards. Vernon Davis is a better bet to lead the 49ers in receiving yards.
Projection: 65 catches for 880 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (124 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)
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