August 31st Fantasy Football Stock Report

RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati) UP

Giovani Bernard had a strong pre-season, especially around the goal line. He’s the more talented of Cincinnati’s two running backs and, while he may start the season splitting carries with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, he might not stay in that role all season. Few flex plays have more upside.

Projection: 190 carries for 840 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 40 catches for 320 yards (152 pts, 199 pts PPR)

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati) DOWN

BJGE is really only worth a late round pick at this point. He’s not an inefficient per carry runner and he doesn’t provide anything in the air. If he starts losing carries and goal line carries to Bernard, he’ll be useless in fantasy, except as a Bernard handcuff.

Projection: 150 carries for 590 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 12 catches for 70 yards (96 pts, 108 pts PPR)

QB Terrelle Pryor (Oakland) UP

Terrelle Pryor appears to have won the Raiders’ starting job. He might be the worst passer of any of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season, but the Raiders will be trailing an awful lot so he’ll get a lot of pass attempts and add value on the ground. He’ll be a better fantasy quarterback than real quarterback. He’s only a QB2 in deep leagues though because he could easily be benched for Matt Flynn at some point this season, but there’s upside with him if he can make all 16 starts.

Projection: 3250 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 400 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (206 pts standard, 232 pts 6 pt td leagues)

QB Geno Smith (NY Jets) UP

Mark Sanchez sounds like he’ll miss multiple weeks with injury, so Geno Smith, by default, looks to be the Jets’ starting quarterback. It’ll probably remain that way even when Sanchez returns because the Jets won’t want to kill the rookie’s confidence by benching him mid-season. Don’t expect much from Smith though. The history of non-1st round pick quarterbacks in the NFL is pretty poor, especially as rookies (Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson are the exception not the rule). Smith looked awful in his first extended pre-season action during the 3rd pre-season game.

Projection: 3000 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (163 pts standard, 187 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB David Wilson (NY Giants) UP

I was already considering moving Wilson up because he was taking some of the goal line carries away from Andre Brown and because he was having an amazing pre-season, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. However, Andre Brown is out indefinitely with a fractured ankle and might miss the entire season. It’s the same leg he fractured last season. He’s not draftable any more, while Wilson has minimal competition for carries and is as close to being a true feature back as you can be. There’s RB1 upside here. The Giants have averaged 16.6 rushing touchdowns per season since 2004. The last time a Giants’ starting running back was also the goal line back, he scored 15 times, Tiki Barber in 2004, before Brandon Jacobs and Andre Brown. Brandon Jacobs scored 15 times in 2008 despite splitting carries. Tom Coughlin runs on the goal line.

Projection: 280 carries for 1260 rushing yards 12 total touchdowns 28 catches for 200 rushing yards (218 pts standard, 246 pts PPR)

RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh) UP

The Steelers have cut Jonathan Dwyer. This is good news for Isaac Redman, who will be pretty much the feature back until Le’Veon Bell returns, with just change of pace backs La’Rod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones behind him on the depth chart. It’s still not a great fantasy situation, but Redman isn’t a bad late round pick by any stretch of the imagination.

Projection: 140 carries for 630 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns 25 catches for 200 receiving yards (107 pts standard, 132 pts PPR)

RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh) UP

Dwyer’s release is also good news for Bell, as it’s a sign that Bell is farther along in his recovery than originally thought. He’s out of his walking boot and while he’ll miss at least 4-6 weeks with an injury that tends to linger, his value is on the rise. The only concern is that Redman impresses in his absence, but Redman will probably go back to being just a passing down back upon Bell’s return.

Projection: 150 carries for 630 rushing yards and 5 total touchdowns 23 catches for 150 receiving yards (108 pts standard, 131 pts PPR)




15 Fantasy Football Players Being Drafted Too Low

Average draft positions based off of ESPN.

RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

With DuJuan Harris out for the season, who is going to take carries away from him? Alex Green and James Starks are tried and failed backs who might not have even made the team if it weren’t for Harris’ injury, while 4th round rookie Johnathan Franklin has appears overmatched thus far in his brief career. Cedric Benson was averaging 16 carries per game before getting hurt last season with almost the same group of backups behind him. What’s to stop Eddie Lacy, a significantly superior talent, from doing the same? He’ll have plenty of running room and scoring opportunities on this explosive offense. If you want to go running back/running back in the first 2 rounds (a good idea considering the well dries up quickly), Lacy is a very reasonable 2nd round pick.

RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

The Lions threw to running backs 134 times last season and that was with the likes of Mikel Leshoure, Joique Bell, and Kevin Smith at running back. Sure, the Lions probably won’t throw 727 times like they did last season, but Reggie Bush could still easily surpass 80 catches, which is what the Lions are saying is their goal for Bush. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was 2nd on this team in receiving after Calvin Johnson and he’ll almost definitely be 2nd in catches. Oh, and he also runs the football. Injuries might scare you off, but he’s missed just 1 game in the last 2 seasons.

RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

Lamar Miller is Reggie Bush’s replacement in Miami and he too is undervalued. Daniel Thomas is no threat to his job. They were just talking him up as a competitor to Miller to scare and motivate him. He should get around the 227 carries Bush had last season and you can comfortably start him as a RB2. Given how thin running backs are this season, it’s absurd that he’s going in the 5th round on average.

WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

Jordy Nelson caught 68 passes for 1263 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2011 and was on his way to an equally good season in 2012. Nelson caught 40 passes for 532 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in the first 7 games of last season. That’s 91 catches for 1216 yards and 11 touchdowns over 16 games. A hamstring problem caused him to miss 4 games and limited him in the others, but that seems to be behind him. I’m not predicting a full bounce back because he recently had minor knee surgery, but he was back practicing 2 weeks before the Packers’ 1st scheduled regular season game. He’s a very solid WR2 that isn’t being drafted like one.

WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

DeSean Jackson was on his way to getting back over the 1000 yard mark last season before missing 5 games with injury. The Eagles offense should, by default, be better than it was last season, especially for fantasy purposes as they’re going to crank up the pace (at the expense of their horrible defense, but still, we’re talking fantasy football here) and Jeremy Maclin is no longer around to steal targets. Jackson is going to see plenty of targets in Chip Kelly’s speed based offense and he’ll probably give you added value on the ground as Kelly will use him from time to time like he used De’Anthony Thomas at Oregon. If you take 3 running backs early like you should this year, you can still get a decent WR2 in Jackson in the 6th round on average.

WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

Anquan Boldin is gone. Dennis Pitta is hurt. Who else is Joe Flacco going to throw to? Smith has totaled about 850 receiving yards in each of his first 2 years in the league and could be on the verge of having a 3rd year breakout year like so many receivers have. He’s got an outside shot at 1200 receiving yards and should be able to go over 1000. Like Jackson, he’s a decent WR2 available in the 6th round.

RB Chris Ivory (NY Jets)

Sure he’s an injury risk, but he’s a starting running back with minimal competition for his job. If he stays healthy, I don’t know why he couldn’t have the ridiculous 276 carries the Jets gave Shonn Greene last season. He’s an injury risk, but he’s a really, really strong flex if you can get him there, and, based on his ADP, you probably can.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

Chuck Pagano called Bradshaw a feature back. Sure he’s an injury risk, but he’s always been one and still averaged 257 touches per season in 3 years as the starter in New York. He’s one of the toughest running backs in the NFL. He’s a RB2 being drafted as a RB3 in a year where running backs dry up fast.

WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

Ignore the fact that he’s a Jaguar. He was a Jaguar last season, but in 9 starts, he caught 47 passes for 774 yards and 5 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 84 catches for 1386 yards and 9 touchdowns over 16 games. He was also 8th in the NFL in yards per route run last season, behind Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, and AJ Green. That’s pretty good company. Going into his 3rd year in the league, things are only looking up for him.

TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

I’ve done a bunch of mock fantasy drafts and a few real ones and I think I’ve ended up with Greg Olsen as my starting tight end in all of them. A 1st round talent, Olsen finally put it all together last season, catching 69 passes for 843 yards and 5 touchdowns. Once Cam Newton got over his 1st half of his sophomore season slump, Olsen got even better, catching 40 passes for 496 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 9 games. Steve Smith is another year older so Olsen could see even more targets and if Newton starts passing on the goal line more often instead of running to preserve his body, look out. The #6 scoring tight end last season, Olsen should surpass that this season, especially in a weak year for tight ends, but is, for some reason, the 8th tight end off the board.

RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

Yeah he’s burned people before with his inability to stay consistently healthy, but he’s still a former 1st round talent going into only his 3rd year in the league and he’s being drafted outside of the top-30 running backs, behind guys like BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Daryl Richardson, and Rashard Mendenhall. Do you really trust those guys more than Ingram?

RB Shane Vereen (New England)

He’s not the starting running back in New England, but he’ll be used plenty of a change of pace back and a receiver. The Patriots led the NFL in plays per game last season and probably will do so again this season because, unlike Philadelphia, they have the personnel necessary to consistently sustain drives. Vereen could see 200 touches, 60 of which could be catches, but he’s being drafted in the 8th-9th round on average.

WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

He’s being drafted as the 36th wide receiver off the board even though he was 18th among receivers in fantasy points last season and I’m not sure why. You can start Williams as a flex most weeks. He’s surpassed or approached 1000 receiving yards in 2 of his first 3 seasons in the league and after he and Vincent Jackson, Josh Freeman doesn’t have a lot to throw to.

WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

Brian Hartline was a 1000 yard receiver last year. Sure, Mike Wallace is coming in, but Hartline is a better fit for the offense, given that it’s a West Coast offense and that the Dolphins have problems up front on the offensive line that could make it hard for the team to throw deep as often as they’d like. Hartline will see plenty of one on one coverage with Wallace drawing double teams deep (until they realize he’s not as good as he used to be anymore) and might still lead the team in targets. Wallace struggled mightily last season and Hartline knows the playbook better. He’s not even being drafted in 2/3rds of the leagues.

RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

If Reggie Bush gets hurt, the Lions might just put Bell directly into his role, which would make him a RB2. Bell was 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run among running backs last season, behind only Darren Sproles, and also averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 82 carries. He’s worth a late round flier, especially for Bush owners, but he’s barely being drafted, going in 28% of leagues. Mikel Leshoure, the clear 3rd string back, meanwhile, is being drafted in 46%.




15 Fantasy Football Players Being Drafted Too High

Average draft positions based off of ESPN.

RB Arian Foster (Houston)

As his blocking has declined from great to above average to average over the past 3 seasons, as he’s lost his starting right guard, starting right tackle, and starting fullback, Foster has seen his YPC drop from 4.9 to 4.4 to just 4.1 last season. Now his body appears to be breaking down after 1115 regular season touches (and 128 post-season touches) and it appears a given he’ll split carries with talented backup Ben Tate early in the season, at the very least. There are better uses of your first round pick.

QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

Quarterbacks in general are being drafted too high this year. You can get a very solid quarterback in the mid rounds. For instance, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck are the 10th and 11th quarterbacks off the board this season. It’s not just Manning. Tom Brady and Matt Ryan are among the quarterbacks that are getting drafted too high, but I’m singling out Manning because he’s being drafted way too high as the 14th player off the board on average. Sure, he could improve on last season with the addition of Wes Welker, but he’s also a 37 year old who has had 4 neck surgeries in his career. It’s more likely that he regresses off the 2nd best season of his career, at least in terms of QB rating.

RB Steven Jackson (Atlanta)

Steven Jackson is going into his age 30 season and has 2395 career carries. That fuel tank could be running on empty. He’s 26th all-time in rushing yards at 10,135, but the average top-25 all-time running back has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season and at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.5 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. He should have one more good year in him, but that’s just an average. I wouldn’t want to risk it at this point.

WR Wes Welker (Denver)

Even Wes Welker admits that if he has to catch the 112 passes he averaged per season in New England, the Broncos are in trouble. The Broncos have a much more diverse receiving corps than New England did with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker so they won’t feature Welker nearly as much as he was featured in New England. He’s also never been a touchdown threat, averaging 6 touchdowns per season in New England. That’s unlikely to change with the 6-3 Decker and 6-4 Thomas lining up on the outside in Denver, not to mention the bevy of tight ends the Broncos have.

WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

Wayne turns 35 this November. Over the next 2-4 years, Wayne can be expected to go from top flight receiver to complementary player to gone. That’s just what happens to receivers around this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Wayne already showed some signs of slowing down in the 2nd half of last season, catching “just” 45 passes for 520 yards and 2 touchdowns. He could have another big year (he proved me wrong last year when I brought up this same narrative), but let him be someone else’s problem. He’s not worth the risk at his current ADP, as the 15th wide receiver off the board.

QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

I mentioned quarterbacks in general are being taken too high this year, but Griffin, like Manning, deserves special mention. I’m not too excited about drafting a quarterback who gets most of his fantasy value from running the football 8 months after tearing his ACL. The Redskins will cut down on his designed runs (as they were down the stretch last season after he started getting hurt) and his throwing could suffer as a result.

RB Montee Ball (Denver)

John Fox hates rookies. He also loves running back committees and hates fantasy football. Knowshon Moreno, Montee Ball, and Ronnie Hillman will all see touches. Ball has some upside if he can take the job and run with it, but it’s not worth the headache as a RB2 or flex, which is what he’s being drafted as right now.

WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

Mike Wallace proved he cared more about his own financial interests than the success of the team last off-season with an extended holdout that caused him to be a shell of his former self. He caught 64 passes (55.2% of his targets) for 838 yards and 8 touchdowns. Now he jumped ship to a team with an inferior quarterback for a giant contract. He could just coast. He’s being drafted as a mid-level WR2. He’s not one.

TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

Sure, Tony Gonzalez could be fantasy football’s #3 scoring tight end again. He could even be the #2 scoring tight end, considering one of the two tight ends who scored more points than him last season also happens to be one of the biggest injury mysteries in the game in Rob Gronkowski. However, Gonzalez is also going into his age 37 season and had one foot into retirement this off-season so he just as likely could not. There’s no upside with him at all at his current ADP as the 2nd tight end off the board.

WR James Jones (Green Bay)

James Jones isn’t scoring on 22% of his catches again this season. He probably won’t even catch 64 passes for 784 yards again. Jordy Nelson will be healthier and Randall Cobb will have a bigger role. Jones was incredibly inefficient last season on a per route basis considering who his quarterback was. He averaged just 1.29 yards per route run, 66th out of 81 eligible wide receivers. He’s getting drafted as a borderline WR2 right now, ahead of Jordy Nelson, which is absolutely absurd.

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

Another guy who has inflated value because of touchdowns, Kyle Rudolph scored on 9 of 53 catches, 17%, last season. At first glance, that doesn’t seem that absurd, especially in comparison in James Jones, but remember that Rudolph also happens to play on arguably the worst passing offense in the NFL. Those 9 touchdowns were half of his team’s total. He had just 493 receiving yards last season and he’s not a consistent week to week tight end as along as Christian Ponder is under center.

Seahawks D/ST (Seattle)

This goes for any defense being drafted before the final 2 or 3 rounds, but Seattle’s ADP is the highest in the 6th round. Seattle has a great defense and they could easily lead all defenses in scoring, but you’d be just as well off playing the matchups on a week to week basis as you would drafting Seattle. The Bears led all defenses in fantasy points last season, scoring 13.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the average defense facing the league’s worst offense, Arizona, scored 14.2 points per game. Sure, you’re not always going to be able to pick up the defense faces the worst offense, but the bottom-5 offenses all surrendered an average of 11 or more fantasy points per game last season, which coincidentally is right around what Seattle averaged last season. You can get the equivalent of a top level fantasy defense by playing the matchups and for the price of a 14th or 15th rounder, not a 6th rounder.

WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Tavon Austin isn’t AJ Green or Julio Jones. Don’t fool yourself.

K Stephen Gostkowski (New England)

Singling out Gostkowski because he’s the first kicker on the board, but don’t take any kicker before the last round. Just don’t. They’re too random. Gostkowski is going in the 9th round on average, which is 7 rounds too early.

QB Michael Vick (Philadelphia)

Sure he looks great in the pre-season, but he’s also been on the steady decline over the past 2 seasons and a predictable decline at that. Vick is more reliant on his physical abilities than any quarterback in the last decade so it’s no surprise he’s aging like a running back or wide receiver. It’s a deep year for quarterbacks so he’ll score like a QB2 when he plays, without the reliability that you want out of a backup quarterback, as he’s played between 10-13 games in every season with the Eagles and only once played all 16 games in his career. I don’t even have him on my board, but he’s going in the 9th round on average.




August 28th Fantasy Football Stock Report

RB Trent Richardson UP

So much for him being injury prone. Trent Richardson is, by all accounts, having a phenomenal pre-season and Training Camp and has gotten himself down to 225 pounds and in phenomenal shape. With Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator, he’s locked into a massive workload and should surpass the 318 touches he had last season. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year thanks to injuries sapping his effectiveness, but he’s much more talented than that and he has a very strong offensive line in front of him.

Projection: 280 carries for 1260 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 56 catches for 450 receiving yards (237 pts standard, 293 pts PPR)

WR Kenny Britt DOWN

I liked Kenny Britt as a sleeper because he was getting through the off-season without any off the field incidents or any injury problems. However, he’s going to miss the Titans’ final pre-season game with recurring knee problems and has reportedly had problems with swelling for a while. He might just never get healthy enough to make good on his talent. He’s still a nice sleeper, but he’s only a WR4 or WR5.

Projection: 55 catches for 880 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (124 pts standard, 179 pts PPR)

WR Nate Washington UP

With Kenny Britt remaining an injury risk, Nate Washington gets a stock up. He’s been Jake Locker’s preferred target this pre-season, as he was last season, but there’s not a lot of upside with him. He’s not the talent Britt can be when healthy and he’s unlikely to exceed last year’s 46/746/4 line by much in this receiving corps with the Titans’ quarterback situation.

Projection: 51 catches for 770 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (107 pts standard, 158 pts PPR)

RB Eddie Lacy UP

DuJuan Harris is out for the season with a knee injury. He was Lacy’s only real competition for carries. Fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin has appeared overmatched thus far, while neither Alex Green nor James Starks is very good. Lacy is still a rookie and he’s still on a pass heavy offense, but he has plenty of talent and he’ll have plenty of room to run and goal line opportunities on Green Bay’s talented offense. He’s a RB2 that could be drafted in the 2nd round if you want to double up on backs.

Projection: 240 carries for 1030 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 31 catches for 250 receiving yards (188 pts standard, 219 pts PPR)

RB Montee Ball DOWN

A day after being benched, Ronnie Hillman was back working with the first team offense again today. John Fox said that the Broncos will be using a running back committee, as he usually does. John Fox hates rookies, so while Ball should lead the team in touches, I think it’s generally a situation to avoid in fantasy this season, at least for drafting purposes.

Projection: 150 carries for 660 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 17 catches for 130 receiving yards (115 pts standard, 132 pts PPR)

RB Ronnie Hillman UP

A day after being benched, Ronnie Hillman was back working with the first team offense again today. I still think he’s the 3rd most valuable fantasy back on this team, but it’s a situation to avoid entirely. Let someone else sort out this mess.

Projection: 100 carries for 450 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 23 catches for 200 receiving yards  (83 pts standard, 106 pts PPR)

WR Brandon Marshall DOWN

Brandon Marshall is upset that the Bears are not taking his hip problem, as he recovers from surgery, seriously. While the hip could be a problem that limits him this season, the bigger concern is Marshall, a notorious headache for coaches, being at odds with his coaching staff and speaking out publicly unprompted about the issue. It’s not a serious issue either way, but it’s enough to give me pause with Marshall in the first 2 rounds of a draft.

Projection: 91 catches for 1250 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (179 pts standard, 270 pts PPR)

WR Alshon Jeffery UP

With Marshall moving down, I’m moving Alshon Jeffery up, though Jeffery’s dominant pre-season alone might have been enough to move him up. He’s worth a flier in the later mid rounds and has WR3 upside.

Projection: 60 catches for 750 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (111 pts standard, 171 pts PPR)

TE Travis Kelce UP

Tony Moeaki is expected to be done for the season with a fractured shoulder, but Travis Kelce might have beaten him out for the pass catching job either way. Still, with Moeaki gone, there will be plenty of playing time for the talented rookie and Alex Smith loves throwing to underneath targets so he’s worth a late round flier. Few TE2s have more upside.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard, 134 pts PPR)




August 26th Fantasy Football Stock Report

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey UP

I don’t know why, but Darrius Heyward-Bey seems to have beaten out TY Hilton for the starting job. He’s not that great, but the Colts passing offense could make him fantasy relevant. Donnie Avery was incredibly inefficient last season, yet he still managed 60 catches for 781 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s worth a look as a depth receiver.

Projection: 57 catches for 850 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (115 pts standard, 172 pts standard)


It doesn’t look like TY Hilton is going to beat out veteran Darrius Heyward-Bey for a starting job. Hilton had 26 catches for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games last season, despite making just 1 start, but the Colts are planning on using more two-tight end sets and fewer three-wide receiver sets this season with Bruce Arians gone and Pep Hamilton coming in. They also won’t emphasis the deep passing game as much as they did last season, when Luck led the NFL in pass attempts 20+ yards downfield through the air, which is where Hilton wins as a route runner. He could still beat out DHB at some point this season and I think he’d be a better pick for the starting job, but he’s being overdrafted at his current ADP in the 6th round.

Projection: 58 catches for 940 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (130 pts standard, 188 pts PPR)

RB Lamar Miller UP

Lamar Miller looks to have locked up the starting job, after a scare last week from Daniel Thomas. Proceed as normal.

Projection: 230 carries for 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 25 catches for 180 receiving yards  (161 pts standard, 186 pts PPR)

RB Joique Bell UP

Joique Bell has beaten out Mikel Leshoure for the #2 back job behind Reggie Bush, so he’s the handcuff you want for the injury prone Bush. He’s also worth a pick on his own merits because he’s an excellent pass catcher and underrated runner who will see touches on this offense. Leshoure isn’t worth drafting.

Projection: 110 carries for 520 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 44 catches for 330 receiving yards (109 pts standard, 153 pts PPR)

WR Andre Roberts DOWN

With Floyd locking up the starting job, Andre Roberts will mostly just be the slot receiver this year. There’s still room for production with him in that role because the Cardinals will be passing a lot and passing out of 3-wide sets, but he’s just a late round pick.

Projection: 57 catches for 750 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 156 pts PPR)

WR Michael Floyd UP

Michael Floyd has locked up a starting job. He has big upside opposite Larry Fitzgerald in Bruce Arians’ offense.

Projection: 65 catches for 900 yards and 6 touchdowns (126 pts standard, 191 pts PPR)

August 25th Fantasy Football Stock Report

WR Jordy Nelson UP

Jordy Nelson returned to practice after knee surgery today, 2 weeks before the Packers’ first game of the season. It’s obviously a very good sign for his week 1 status and makes me a little bit more confident in a bounce back year.

Projection: 80 catches for 1120 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (172 pts standard, 252 pts PPR)

WR James Jones DOWN

With Randall Cobb taking over a bigger role and Jordy Nelson coming back from injury, James Jones could see up to 100 fewer passing snaps than he did last season, so he’s unlikely to reach the 64 catches for 784 yards he had last season and even if he were to catch 64 passes again, it’s unlikely he’d convert 14 touchdowns. Something like 2010 (50/679/5) or 2011 (38/635/7) is much more likely. Leave him alone.

Projection: 53 catches for 670 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (103 pts standard, 156 pts PPR)

RB Knowshon Moreno UP

Originally, I thought it would be Ronnie Hillman to start the season for the Broncos, but he’s been a mess in the pre-season so it’s beginning to look like Moreno is going to be the early season back and passing down complement. Montee Ball will eventually take over the starting job, like he would have if Hillman were the guy and I do expect him to lead the team in carries, but John Fox hates playing rookies.

Projection: 120 carries for 500 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 23 catches for 190 receiving yards (93 pts standard, 116 pts PPR)

RB Ronnie Hillman DOWN

Ronnie Hilman has been a mess in the pre-season. I’d take Ball and Moreno over him. He’s barely worth a late round flier at this point.

Projection: 80 carries for 380 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 20 catches for 160 receiving yards (72 pts standard, 92 pts PPR)

QB EJ Manuel UP

EJ Manuel hasn’t officially been named the starting quarterback of the Bills, but he’s been by far their best quarterback this pre-season and he may win it by default regardless because of Kevin Kolb’s potentially career threatening concussion. The Bills signed veteran Matt Leinart, but he’s only insurance in case Manuel misses time after minor knee surgery. His status is in doubt for the very early part of the season, but when he does play, he could post QB2 numbers because of his rushing ability. Ryan Tannehill’s rookie numbers should serve as a template for Manuel’s He’ll be the starter by the time bye weeks roll around and he faces New Orleans’ pathetic defense week 8 so he could be a smart backup for a team with a starting quarterback with a bye week 8.

Projection: 3300 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (202 pts standard, 228 pts 6 pt leagues)

RB Bilal Powell UP

Bilal Powell has been working as the starter for the Jets this pre-season and getting more touches than Chris Ivory. This won’t continue into the season. The Jets are just limiting Ivory’s carries as he works through hamstring problems and trying to keep him fresh for the regular season. However, Powell is the clear #2 back and is worth a late round flier because he’ll be the starter should the injury prone Ivory miss any time. Hamstring problems tend to linger. He’ll also play the majority of the passing downs.

Projection: 120 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 25 catches for 200 receiving yards (88 pts standard, 113 pts standard

RB Stepfan Taylor UP

Ryan Williams just can’t get healthy. The Cardinals are shopping him ahead of final cuts and could cut him if they can’t find a taker. He’s not worth drafting anymore. 5th round rookie Stepfan Taylor is the handcuff you want for injury prone Rashard Mendenhall.

Projection: 130 carries for 570 receiving yards 4 total touchdowns 18 catches for 130 receiving yards (94 pts standard, 112 pts PPR)




2013 Fantasy Football Top-150 6 PT TD Leagues

1. RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

2. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

3. RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

4. RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

5. RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

6. RB Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

7. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

8. RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

9. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

10. RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

11. RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

12. RB Stevan Ridley (New England)

13. RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

14. RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

15. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville)

16. RB Arian Foster (Houston)

17. WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

18. RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

19. QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

20. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

21. RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

22. WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

23. RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

24. WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

25. WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)

26. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

27. WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

28. WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

29. RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

30. RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

31. RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis)

32. QB Tom Brady (New England)

33. RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

34. RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

35. WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

36. WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

37. WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

38. WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

39. RB Chris Ivory (New Orleans)

40. RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

41. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

42. TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

43. RB Shane Vereen (New England)

44. RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

45. WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

46. WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

47. QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

48. RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

49. WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

50. WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

51. QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

52. QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)


53. RB Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

54. TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

55. RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

56. QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

57. WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

58. WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

59. WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)

60. WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

61. WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

62. RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

63. TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

64. RB Rashard Mendenhall (Arizona)

65. WR Danny Amendola (St. Louis)

66. WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

67. TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

68. TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

69. QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

70. WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

71. WR Eric Decker (Denver)

72. QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

73. RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

74. WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

75. RB Montee Ball (Denver)

76. WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

77. WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

78. RB Ben Tate (Houston)

79. WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

80. QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

81. WR Anquan Boldin (Baltimore)

82. WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

83. TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

84. RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

85. RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

86. WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

87. RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)

88. WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

89. RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

90. WR Wes Welker (New England)

91. WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

92. WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

93. WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

94. TE Brandon Myers (NY Giants)

95. WR Denarius Moore (Oakland)

96. WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

97. RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

98. WR Josh Gordon (Cleveland)

99. TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

100. QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

101. RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)


102. TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

103. RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

104. TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

105. RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

106. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati)

107. WR Chris Givens (St. Louis)

108. RB Bryce Brown (Philadelphia)

109. WR Alshon Jeffery (Chicago)

110. WR Rod Streater (Oakland)

111. TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

112. RB Stepfan Taylor (Arizona)

113. WR Jeremy Kerley (NY Jets)

114. WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

115. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Indianapolis)

116. TE Fred Davis (Washington)

117. RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver)

118. WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

119. WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

120. QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsbugh)

121. TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago)

122. WR Ryan Broyles (Detroit)

123. WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

124. TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

125. WR Kenbrell Thompkins (New England)

126. WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

127. RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

128. WR James Jones (Green Bay)

129. TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

130. TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

131. TE Zach Sudfield (New England)

132. TE Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville)

133. QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

134. RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

135. RB Vick Ballard (Indianapolis)

136. RB Shonn Greene (Tennessee)

137. QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

138. WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

139. WR Andre Roberts (Arizona)

140. WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh)

141. RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

142. QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

143. WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

144. TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

145. WR DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)

146. TE Jordan Cameron (Cleveland)

147. TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

148. RB Mike Tolbert (Carolina)

149. RB Isaiah Pead (St. Louis)

150. WR Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati)




August 21st Fantasy Football Stock Report

Jonathan Dwyer (Pittsburgh) UP

Projection: 120 carries for 500 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 15 catches for 110 receiving yards (85 pts standard, 100 pts PPR)

Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh) UP

Projection: 100 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 20 catches for 160 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 104 pts PPR)

Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh) DOWN

Steelers rookie running back Le’Veon Bell is expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks with a Lisfranc injury and he could be a candidate for the injured reserve with designation to return, which would put him out until at least week 9 and his status is even more up in the air than that. There’s no guarantee he’ll be the feature back upon return either. In his absence, the underwhelming trio of Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and La’Rod Stephens-Howling will split carries. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley likes rotating backs anyway. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid.

Projection: 100 carries for 420 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 18 catches for 150 receiving yards (75 pts standard, 93 pts PPR)




August 20th Fantasy Football Stock Report

QB Michael Vick (Philadelphia) UP

Michael Vick has been named the starter for the Eagles. The good news is he’ll have a better supporting cast than he did last season unless injuries strike at the same level they did last season and he has a new Head Coach in Chip Kelly who wants him to run more. Vick did look great in the pre-season in Kelly’s system and he has that Kelly has made him fall in love with the game again. That’s the good news.

The bad news is he’s almost a lock to miss 3-4 games with injury and I wouldn’t rule out him getting benched for Nick Foles or Matt Barkley later in the season, especially if the team is out of playoff contention. He’s averaged 11.8 starts per season over the last 4 years, starting 10 last season, and I think going into his age 33 season, the over/under for starts for him should be around 10.5. On top of that, he’s shown declining physical abilities as a result of age and his injury history and he’s more reliant on his physical abilities than maybe any quarterback in recent history. He was never going to age well. I think he’ll produce like a QB2 and it’s best to go with someone more reliable in a backup quarterback.

Projection: 2300 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 450 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (191 pts standard, 219 pts 6 pt td leagues)

QB Brandon Weeden (Cleveland) UP

As was expected all off-season, Brandon Weeden was named the Browns’ starting quarterback and I expect him to have a fairly long leash, even with veterans Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer behind him. If he stays healthy, he could start all 16 games. However, he’s just a low end QB2. He should post better numbers in his 2nd season in the league in a system that fits him better under Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, but he won’t be that impressive.

Projection: 3550 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (184 pts standard, 216 pts 6 pt td leagues)

QB Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville) UP

Blaine Gabbert has won the Jaguars’ starting quarterback job, but don’t draft him. He’s not very good and will likely cede multiple starts to Chad Henne, like he did last year. In 10 games last year, Gabbert threw for 1662 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 6 interceptions and 56 rushing yards. I wouldn’t bet on him doing much more than that this season.

Projection: 1800 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (105 pts standard, 125 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis) UP

Daryl Richardson has been named the starting running back of the St. Louis Rams. He shouldn’t feel too comfortable as Isaiah Pead and/or Zac Stacy could both steal carries and even starts from him this season, but he gets moved up. Steven Jackson’s primary running back, Richardson rushed for 475 yards on 95 carries and also caught 24 passes for 163 yards. He’s a solid bet to go over 200 touches. Pead will be the change of pace back. There’s still an opportunity for Zac Stacy to eventually become a starter at some point this season if the unproven players above him on the depth chart don’t impress, but he’s not really worth drafting. He might be a nice late season waiver wire pickup if anything.

Projection: 180 carries for 790 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 35 catches for 250 receiving yards (140 pts standard, 175 pts PPR)

RB Lamar Miller (Miami) DOWN

Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman the running back competition Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas is “neck and neck.” They have contrasting styles of play so they could split carries if the coaching staff doesn’t feel there’s a big talent difference. I still like Miller to lead this team in carries, but he gets a stock down and Thomas gets a stock up. Thomas could see the goal line looks.

Projection: 190 carries for 840 rushing yards and 6 total touchdowns 23 catches for 160 receiving yards (136 pts standard, 159 pts PPR)

RB Daniel Thomas (Miami) UP

Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman the running back competition Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas is “neck and neck.” They have contrasting styles of play so they could split carries if the coaching staff doesn’t feel there’s a big talent difference. I still like Miller to lead this team in carries, but he gets a stock down and Thomas gets a stock up. Thomas could see the goal line looks.

Projection: 140 carries for 590 rushing yards and 6 total touchdowns 20 catches for 150 receiving yards (110 pts standard, 130 pts PPR)

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina) DOWN

Stewart is the more talented of Carolina’s two backs, but he can’t stay healthy. After missing 7 games with injury last season, Stewart is a candidate to start the season on the PUP, which would cost him the first 6 weeks of the season, this according to Head Coach Ron Rivera. Stewart had 93 carries in 9 games last year. He might not exceed that by much this season.

Projection: 100 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 15 catches for 100 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 99 pts PPR)

RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina) UP

With Stewart possibly starting the season on the PUP, Williams gets a stock up. He had 173 carries last season with Stewart missing time and could see even more this season as the Panthers want to have a little bit more of a traditional running game. Cam Newton and goal line back Mike Tolbert will still steal a bunch of touchdowns and Newton is still a good bet to take off a bunch of times on his own though and Williams just isn’t that talented anymore.

Projection: 180 carries for 720 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 18 catches for 130 receiving yards (121 pts standard, 139 pts PPR)

2013 Fantasy Football Top-150 PPR

1. RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

2. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

3. RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

4. RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

5. RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

6. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

7. RB Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

8. RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

9. WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

10. WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

11. RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

12. RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

13. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville)

14. RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

15. RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

16. WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)

17. RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

18. WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

19. RB Arian Foster (Houston)

20. WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

21. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

22. WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

23. RB Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

24. WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

25. QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

26. RB Stevan Ridley (New England)

27. RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

28. WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

29. RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

30. WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

31. WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

32. RB Shane Vereen (New England)

33. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

34. WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

35. WR Danny Amendola (New England)

36. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

37. RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

38. TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

39. WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

40. RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

41. RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

42. WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

43. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

44. RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis)

45. RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

46. QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

47. RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

48. WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

49. WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

50. RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

51. WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

52. WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)


53. WR Pierre Garcon (New England)

54. WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

55. TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

56. RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

57. WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

58. WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

59. QB Tom Brady (New England)

60. QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

61. RB Chris Ivory (NY Jets)

62. WR Eric Decker (Denver)

63. TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

64. TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

65. WR Wes Welker (New England)

66. QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

67. RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

68. WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

69. QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

70. QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

71. RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

72. RB Rashard Mendenhall (Arizona)

73. TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

74. RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)

75. WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

76. WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

77. WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)

78. WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

79. WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

80. QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

81. RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

82. WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

83. TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

84. TE Brandon Myers (NY Giants)

85. WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

86. RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

87. RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

88. WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

89. RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

90. WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

91. QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

92. WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

93. WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

94. RB Montee Ball (Denver)

95. RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)

96. WR Alshon Jeffery (Chicago)

97. RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

98. QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

99. RB Ben Tate (Houston)

100. WR Denarius Moore (Oakland)

101. WR Josh Gordon (Cleveland)


102. TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

103. WR Chris Givens (St. Louis)

104. WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

105. WR Darrius Heyward Bey (Indianapolis)

106. WR Rod Streater (Oakland)

107. WR Ryan Broyles (Detroit)

108. WR Kenbrell Thompkins (New England)

109. QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

110. WR Jeremy Kerley (NY Jets)

111. TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

112. RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

113. QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

114. WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

115. QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

116. QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

117. TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

118. WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

119. WR James Jones (Green Bay)

120. RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver)

121. WR Andre Roberts (Arizona)

122. WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

123. TE Fred Davis (Washington)

124. RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

125. RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

126. RB Stepfan Taylor (Arizona)

127. WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

128. RB Bryce Brown (Philadelphia)

129. WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

130. WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh)

131. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati)

132. RB Mike Tolbert (Carolina)

133. WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

134. TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

135. TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

136. RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

137. TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago)

138. TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

139. TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

140. WR DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)

141. TE Zach Sudfield (New England)

142. TE Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville)

143. RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

144. RB Vick Ballard (Indianapolis)

145. WR Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati)

146. QB Andy Dalton (Cincinnati)

147. RB Shonn Greene (NY Jets)

148. QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

149. TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

150. WR Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville)