Month: August 2013

August 26th Fantasy Football Stock Report

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Fantasy Football Stock Reports, Uncategorized

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey UP

I don’t know why, but Darrius Heyward-Bey seems to have beaten out TY Hilton for the starting job. He’s not that great, but the Colts passing offense could make him fantasy relevant. Donnie Avery was incredibly inefficient last season, yet he still managed 60 catches for 781 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s worth a look as a depth receiver.

Projection: 57 catches for 850 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (115 pts standard, 172 pts standard)

WR TY Hilton DOWN

It doesn’t look like TY Hilton is going to beat out veteran Darrius Heyward-Bey for a starting job. Hilton had 26 catches for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games last season, despite making just 1 start, but the Colts are planning on using more two-tight end sets and fewer three-wide receiver sets this season with Bruce Arians gone and Pep Hamilton coming in. They also won’t emphasis the deep passing game as much as they did last season, when Luck led the NFL in pass attempts 20+ yards downfield through the air, which is where Hilton wins as a route runner. He could still beat out DHB at some point this season and I think he’d be a better pick for the starting job, but he’s being overdrafted at his current ADP in the 6th round.

Projection: 58 catches for 940 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (130 pts standard, 188 pts PPR)

RB Lamar Miller UP

Lamar Miller looks to have locked up the starting job, after a scare last week from Daniel Thomas. Proceed as normal.

Projection: 230 carries for 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 25 catches for 180 receiving yards  (161 pts standard, 186 pts PPR)

RB Joique Bell UP

Joique Bell has beaten out Mikel Leshoure for the #2 back job behind Reggie Bush, so he’s the handcuff you want for the injury prone Bush. He’s also worth a pick on his own merits because he’s an excellent pass catcher and underrated runner who will see touches on this offense. Leshoure isn’t worth drafting.

Projection: 110 carries for 520 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 44 catches for 330 receiving yards (109 pts standard, 153 pts PPR)

WR Andre Roberts DOWN

With Floyd locking up the starting job, Andre Roberts will mostly just be the slot receiver this year. There’s still room for production with him in that role because the Cardinals will be passing a lot and passing out of 3-wide sets, but he’s just a late round pick.

Projection: 57 catches for 750 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 156 pts PPR)

WR Michael Floyd UP

Michael Floyd has locked up a starting job. He has big upside opposite Larry Fitzgerald in Bruce Arians’ offense.

Projection: 65 catches for 900 yards and 6 touchdowns (126 pts standard, 191 pts PPR)

August 25th Fantasy Football Stock Report

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Fantasy Football Stock Reports, Uncategorized

WR Jordy Nelson UP

Jordy Nelson returned to practice after knee surgery today, 2 weeks before the Packers’ first game of the season. It’s obviously a very good sign for his week 1 status and makes me a little bit more confident in a bounce back year.

Projection: 80 catches for 1120 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (172 pts standard, 252 pts PPR)

WR James Jones DOWN

With Randall Cobb taking over a bigger role and Jordy Nelson coming back from injury, James Jones could see up to 100 fewer passing snaps than he did last season, so he’s unlikely to reach the 64 catches for 784 yards he had last season and even if he were to catch 64 passes again, it’s unlikely he’d convert 14 touchdowns. Something like 2010 (50/679/5) or 2011 (38/635/7) is much more likely. Leave him alone.

Projection: 53 catches for 670 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (103 pts standard, 156 pts PPR)

RB Knowshon Moreno UP

Originally, I thought it would be Ronnie Hillman to start the season for the Broncos, but he’s been a mess in the pre-season so it’s beginning to look like Moreno is going to be the early season back and passing down complement. Montee Ball will eventually take over the starting job, like he would have if Hillman were the guy and I do expect him to lead the team in carries, but John Fox hates playing rookies.

Projection: 120 carries for 500 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 23 catches for 190 receiving yards (93 pts standard, 116 pts PPR)

RB Ronnie Hillman DOWN

Ronnie Hilman has been a mess in the pre-season. I’d take Ball and Moreno over him. He’s barely worth a late round flier at this point.

Projection: 80 carries for 380 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 20 catches for 160 receiving yards (72 pts standard, 92 pts PPR)

QB EJ Manuel UP

EJ Manuel hasn’t officially been named the starting quarterback of the Bills, but he’s been by far their best quarterback this pre-season and he may win it by default regardless because of Kevin Kolb’s potentially career threatening concussion. The Bills signed veteran Matt Leinart, but he’s only insurance in case Manuel misses time after minor knee surgery. His status is in doubt for the very early part of the season, but when he does play, he could post QB2 numbers because of his rushing ability. Ryan Tannehill’s rookie numbers should serve as a template for Manuel’s He’ll be the starter by the time bye weeks roll around and he faces New Orleans’ pathetic defense week 8 so he could be a smart backup for a team with a starting quarterback with a bye week 8.

Projection: 3300 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (202 pts standard, 228 pts 6 pt leagues)

RB Bilal Powell UP

Bilal Powell has been working as the starter for the Jets this pre-season and getting more touches than Chris Ivory. This won’t continue into the season. The Jets are just limiting Ivory’s carries as he works through hamstring problems and trying to keep him fresh for the regular season. However, Powell is the clear #2 back and is worth a late round flier because he’ll be the starter should the injury prone Ivory miss any time. Hamstring problems tend to linger. He’ll also play the majority of the passing downs.

Projection: 120 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 25 catches for 200 receiving yards (88 pts standard, 113 pts standard

RB Stepfan Taylor UP

Ryan Williams just can’t get healthy. The Cardinals are shopping him ahead of final cuts and could cut him if they can’t find a taker. He’s not worth drafting anymore. 5th round rookie Stepfan Taylor is the handcuff you want for injury prone Rashard Mendenhall.

Projection: 130 carries for 570 receiving yards 4 total touchdowns 18 catches for 130 receiving yards (94 pts standard, 112 pts PPR)

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2013 Fantasy Football Top-150 6 PT TD Leagues

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Fantasy Football Top 150, Uncategorized

1. RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

2. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

3. RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

4. RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

5. RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

6. RB Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

7. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

8. RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

9. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

10. RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

11. RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

12. RB Stevan Ridley (New England)

13. RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

14. RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

15. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville)

16. RB Arian Foster (Houston)

17. WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

18. RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

19. QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

20. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

21. RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

22. WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

23. RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

24. WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

25. WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)

26. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

27. WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

28. WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

29. RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

30. RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

31. RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis)

32. QB Tom Brady (New England)

33. RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

34. RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

35. WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

36. WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

37. WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

38. WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

39. RB Chris Ivory (New Orleans)

40. RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

41. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

42. TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

43. RB Shane Vereen (New England)

44. RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

45. WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

46. WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

47. QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

48. RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

49. WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

50. WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

51. QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

52. QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

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53. RB Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

54. TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

55. RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

56. QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

57. WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

58. WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

59. WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)

60. WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

61. WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

62. RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

63. TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

64. RB Rashard Mendenhall (Arizona)

65. WR Danny Amendola (St. Louis)

66. WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

67. TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

68. TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

69. QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

70. WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

71. WR Eric Decker (Denver)

72. QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

73. RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

74. WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

75. RB Montee Ball (Denver)

76. WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

77. WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

78. RB Ben Tate (Houston)

79. WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

80. QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

81. WR Anquan Boldin (Baltimore)

82. WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

83. TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

84. RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

85. RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

86. WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

87. RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)

88. WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

89. RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

90. WR Wes Welker (New England)

91. WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

92. WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

93. WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

94. TE Brandon Myers (NY Giants)

95. WR Denarius Moore (Oakland)

96. WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

97. RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

98. WR Josh Gordon (Cleveland)

99. TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

100. QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

101. RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)

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102. TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

103. RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

104. TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

105. RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

106. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati)

107. WR Chris Givens (St. Louis)

108. RB Bryce Brown (Philadelphia)

109. WR Alshon Jeffery (Chicago)

110. WR Rod Streater (Oakland)

111. TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

112. RB Stepfan Taylor (Arizona)

113. WR Jeremy Kerley (NY Jets)

114. WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

115. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Indianapolis)

116. TE Fred Davis (Washington)

117. RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver)

118. WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

119. WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

120. QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsbugh)

121. TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago)

122. WR Ryan Broyles (Detroit)

123. WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

124. TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

125. WR Kenbrell Thompkins (New England)

126. WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

127. RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

128. WR James Jones (Green Bay)

129. TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

130. TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

131. TE Zach Sudfield (New England)

132. TE Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville)

133. QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

134. RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

135. RB Vick Ballard (Indianapolis)

136. RB Shonn Greene (Tennessee)

137. QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

138. WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

139. WR Andre Roberts (Arizona)

140. WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh)

141. RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

142. QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

143. WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

144. TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

145. WR DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)

146. TE Jordan Cameron (Cleveland)

147. TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

148. RB Mike Tolbert (Carolina)

149. RB Isaiah Pead (St. Louis)

150. WR Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati)

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2013 Pre-Season NFL Power Rankings

stevenlourie 2013 Pre-season NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized

Some teams will be ranked higher despite a worse projected record (and vice versa) because projected record takes into account schedule and this does not. And remember, as always, if I didn’t rank your team highly, it’s because I am biased and/or have a personal vendetta against them. Or just click the link for an explanation.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars 1-15

31. Oakland Raiders 1-15

30. New York Jets 4-12

29. Cleveland Browns 5-11

28. San Diego Chargers 5-11

27. Tennessee Titans 5-11

26. Buffalo Bills 6-10

25. Arizona Cardinals 6-10

24. Minnesota Vikings 5-11

23. Indianapolis Colts 6-10

22. St. Louis Rams 6-10

21. Philadelphia Eagles 7-9

20. Miami Dolphins 8-8

19. Washington Redskins 8-8

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10

17. Cincinnati Bengals 9-7

16. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6

15. Kansas City Chiefs 10-6

14. Houston Texans 10-6

13. New York Giants 9-7

12. Atlanta Falcons 8-8

11. Dallas Cowboys 11-5

10. Baltimore Ravens 11-5

9. Chicago Bears 9-7

8. Detroit Lions 10-6

7. New Orleans Saints 10-6

6. Carolina Panthers 12-4

5. Denver Broncos 11-5

4. Seattle Seahawks 11-5

3. New England Patriots 12-4

2. San Francisco 49ers 12-4

1. Green Bay Packers 12-4

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August 21st Fantasy Football Stock Report

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Fantasy Football Stock Reports, Uncategorized

Jonathan Dwyer (Pittsburgh) UP

Projection: 120 carries for 500 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 15 catches for 110 receiving yards (85 pts standard, 100 pts PPR)

Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh) UP

Projection: 100 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 20 catches for 160 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 104 pts PPR)

Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh) DOWN

Steelers rookie running back Le’Veon Bell is expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks with a Lisfranc injury and he could be a candidate for the injured reserve with designation to return, which would put him out until at least week 9 and his status is even more up in the air than that. There’s no guarantee he’ll be the feature back upon return either. In his absence, the underwhelming trio of Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and La’Rod Stephens-Howling will split carries. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley likes rotating backs anyway. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid.

Projection: 100 carries for 420 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 18 catches for 150 receiving yards (75 pts standard, 93 pts PPR)

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August 20th Fantasy Football Stock Report

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Fantasy Football Stock Reports, Uncategorized

QB Michael Vick (Philadelphia) UP

Michael Vick has been named the starter for the Eagles. The good news is he’ll have a better supporting cast than he did last season unless injuries strike at the same level they did last season and he has a new Head Coach in Chip Kelly who wants him to run more. Vick did look great in the pre-season in Kelly’s system and he has that Kelly has made him fall in love with the game again. That’s the good news.

The bad news is he’s almost a lock to miss 3-4 games with injury and I wouldn’t rule out him getting benched for Nick Foles or Matt Barkley later in the season, especially if the team is out of playoff contention. He’s averaged 11.8 starts per season over the last 4 years, starting 10 last season, and I think going into his age 33 season, the over/under for starts for him should be around 10.5. On top of that, he’s shown declining physical abilities as a result of age and his injury history and he’s more reliant on his physical abilities than maybe any quarterback in recent history. He was never going to age well. I think he’ll produce like a QB2 and it’s best to go with someone more reliable in a backup quarterback.

Projection: 2300 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 450 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (191 pts standard, 219 pts 6 pt td leagues)

QB Brandon Weeden (Cleveland) UP

As was expected all off-season, Brandon Weeden was named the Browns’ starting quarterback and I expect him to have a fairly long leash, even with veterans Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer behind him. If he stays healthy, he could start all 16 games. However, he’s just a low end QB2. He should post better numbers in his 2nd season in the league in a system that fits him better under Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, but he won’t be that impressive.

Projection: 3550 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (184 pts standard, 216 pts 6 pt td leagues)

QB Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville) UP

Blaine Gabbert has won the Jaguars’ starting quarterback job, but don’t draft him. He’s not very good and will likely cede multiple starts to Chad Henne, like he did last year. In 10 games last year, Gabbert threw for 1662 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 6 interceptions and 56 rushing yards. I wouldn’t bet on him doing much more than that this season.

Projection: 1800 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (105 pts standard, 125 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis) UP

Daryl Richardson has been named the starting running back of the St. Louis Rams. He shouldn’t feel too comfortable as Isaiah Pead and/or Zac Stacy could both steal carries and even starts from him this season, but he gets moved up. Steven Jackson’s primary running back, Richardson rushed for 475 yards on 95 carries and also caught 24 passes for 163 yards. He’s a solid bet to go over 200 touches. Pead will be the change of pace back. There’s still an opportunity for Zac Stacy to eventually become a starter at some point this season if the unproven players above him on the depth chart don’t impress, but he’s not really worth drafting. He might be a nice late season waiver wire pickup if anything.

Projection: 180 carries for 790 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 35 catches for 250 receiving yards (140 pts standard, 175 pts PPR)

RB Lamar Miller (Miami) DOWN

Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman the running back competition Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas is “neck and neck.” They have contrasting styles of play so they could split carries if the coaching staff doesn’t feel there’s a big talent difference. I still like Miller to lead this team in carries, but he gets a stock down and Thomas gets a stock up. Thomas could see the goal line looks.

Projection: 190 carries for 840 rushing yards and 6 total touchdowns 23 catches for 160 receiving yards (136 pts standard, 159 pts PPR)

RB Daniel Thomas (Miami) UP

Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman the running back competition Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas is “neck and neck.” They have contrasting styles of play so they could split carries if the coaching staff doesn’t feel there’s a big talent difference. I still like Miller to lead this team in carries, but he gets a stock down and Thomas gets a stock up. Thomas could see the goal line looks.

Projection: 140 carries for 590 rushing yards and 6 total touchdowns 20 catches for 150 receiving yards (110 pts standard, 130 pts PPR)

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina) DOWN

Stewart is the more talented of Carolina’s two backs, but he can’t stay healthy. After missing 7 games with injury last season, Stewart is a candidate to start the season on the PUP, which would cost him the first 6 weeks of the season, this according to Head Coach Ron Rivera. Stewart had 93 carries in 9 games last year. He might not exceed that by much this season.

Projection: 100 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 15 catches for 100 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 99 pts PPR)

RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina) UP

With Stewart possibly starting the season on the PUP, Williams gets a stock up. He had 173 carries last season with Stewart missing time and could see even more this season as the Panthers want to have a little bit more of a traditional running game. Cam Newton and goal line back Mike Tolbert will still steal a bunch of touchdowns and Newton is still a good bet to take off a bunch of times on his own though and Williams just isn’t that talented anymore.

Projection: 180 carries for 720 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 18 catches for 130 receiving yards (121 pts standard, 139 pts PPR)

2013 Fantasy Football Top-150 PPR

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Fantasy Football Top 150, Uncategorized

1. RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

2. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

3. RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

4. RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

5. RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

6. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

7. RB Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

8. RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

9. WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

10. WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

11. RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

12. RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

13. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville)

14. RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

15. RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

16. WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)

17. RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

18. WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

19. RB Arian Foster (Houston)

20. WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

21. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

22. WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

23. RB Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

24. WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

25. QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

26. RB Stevan Ridley (New England)

27. RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

28. WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

29. RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

30. WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

31. WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

32. RB Shane Vereen (New England)

33. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

34. WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

35. WR Danny Amendola (New England)

36. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

37. RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

38. TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

39. WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

40. RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

41. RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

42. WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

43. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

44. RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis)

45. RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

46. QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

47. RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

48. WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

49. WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

50. RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

51. WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

52. WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

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53. WR Pierre Garcon (New England)

54. WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

55. TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

56. RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

57. WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

58. WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

59. QB Tom Brady (New England)

60. QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

61. RB Chris Ivory (NY Jets)

62. WR Eric Decker (Denver)

63. TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

64. TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

65. WR Wes Welker (New England)

66. QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

67. RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

68. WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

69. QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

70. QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

71. RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

72. RB Rashard Mendenhall (Arizona)

73. TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

74. RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)

75. WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

76. WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

77. WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)

78. WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

79. WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

80. QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

81. RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

82. WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

83. TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

84. TE Brandon Myers (NY Giants)

85. WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

86. RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

87. RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

88. WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

89. RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

90. WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

91. QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

92. WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

93. WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

94. RB Montee Ball (Denver)

95. RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)

96. WR Alshon Jeffery (Chicago)

97. RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

98. QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

99. RB Ben Tate (Houston)

100. WR Denarius Moore (Oakland)

101. WR Josh Gordon (Cleveland)

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102. TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

103. WR Chris Givens (St. Louis)

104. WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

105. WR Darrius Heyward Bey (Indianapolis)

106. WR Rod Streater (Oakland)

107. WR Ryan Broyles (Detroit)

108. WR Kenbrell Thompkins (New England)

109. QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

110. WR Jeremy Kerley (NY Jets)

111. TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

112. RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

113. QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

114. WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

115. QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

116. QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

117. TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

118. WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

119. WR James Jones (Green Bay)

120. RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver)

121. WR Andre Roberts (Arizona)

122. WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

123. TE Fred Davis (Washington)

124. RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

125. RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

126. RB Stepfan Taylor (Arizona)

127. WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

128. RB Bryce Brown (Philadelphia)

129. WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

130. WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh)

131. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati)

132. RB Mike Tolbert (Carolina)

133. WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

134. TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

135. TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

136. RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

137. TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago)

138. TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

139. TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

140. WR DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)

141. TE Zach Sudfield (New England)

142. TE Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville)

143. RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

144. RB Vick Ballard (Indianapolis)

145. WR Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati)

146. QB Andy Dalton (Cincinnati)

147. RB Shonn Greene (NY Jets)

148. QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

149. TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

150. WR Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville)

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Seattle Seahawks trade G John Moffitt to Cleveland Browns for DE Brian Sanford

stevenlourie Browns, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Trade for Cleveland: Cleveland needed help at left guard, where both Jason Pinkston and Shawn Lauvao are dealing with injuries that well keep them off the field early in the season. 7th round rookie Garrett Gilkey was scheduled to be their week 1 starter. Moffitt was a 3rd round pick in 2011 and has plenty of experience, appearing in 17 games (15 starts) over the past 2 seasons. He hasn’t played well at all, grading out as the 3rd worst guard on ProFootballFocus in 2011 despite making just 9 starts and He was only slightly better in 2012. However, he is at least experienced and they barely gave up anything for him. Brian Sanford was a 2010 undrafted free agent who has played 63 snaps in his career. He was on their roster bubble.

Grade: A

Trade for Seattle: Seattle seems to have a special interest in Brian Sanford. Getting a guy on the roster bubble is even less than getting a 7th round pick because chances are you can get the guy for nothing in a few weeks, but the Seahawks for some reason weren’t taking any chances letting this guy hit the open market. I don’t like to question John Schneider and Pete Carroll with defensive linemen, but Sanford making their roster and being a game day active would be an accomplishment in scouting and coaching for Schneider and Carroll. It’s doubtful that Sanford is the next Chris Clemons or anything like that.

The 6-3 280 pounder will provide depth at a position where they need it early in the season, with Clemons out with a torn ACL, and Bruce Irvin suspended for 4 games, but Moffitt played a position of need as well as none of the guards on their roster are established. It looks like Paul McQuistan, a mediocre veteran, and JR Sweezy, a converted collegiate defensive lineman who struggled mightily as a 7th round rookie last season, will start at guard for them. James Carpenter is the only other option and the injury prone offensive lineman has played just 352 mediocre snaps in his career and looks on his way to being a bust as a 2011 1st round pick.

Grade: C

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2013 Fantasy Football Top 150

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Fantasy Football Top 150, Uncategorized

1. RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

2. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

3. RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

4. RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

5. RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

6. RB Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

7. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

8. RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

9. RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

10. RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

11. RB Stevan Ridley (New England)

12. RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

13. RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

14. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville)

15. RB Arian Foster (Houston)

16. WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

17. RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

18. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

19. QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

20. RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

21. WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

22. RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

23. WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

24. WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)

25. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

26. WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

27. RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

28. WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

29. RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

30. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

31. RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis)

32. QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

33. RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

34. RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

35. WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

36. WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

37. WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

38. WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

39. RB Chris Ivory (New Orleans)

40. RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

41. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

42. TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

43. RB Shane Vereen (New England)

44. RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

45. WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

46. WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

47. RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

48. WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

49. WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

50. RB Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

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51. QB Tom Brady (New England)

52. QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

53. TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

54. RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

55. WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

56. WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

57. WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)

58. WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

59. WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

60. RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

61. TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

62. RB Rashard Mendenhall (Arizona)

63. WR Danny Amendola (St. Louis)

64. WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

65. QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

66. TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

67. TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

68. QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

69. WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

70. WR Eric Decker (Denver)

71. RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

72. QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

73. QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

74. WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

75. RB Montee Ball (Denver)

76. WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

77. WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

78. RB Ben Tate (Houston)

79. WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

80. WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)

81. WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

82. TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

83. RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

84. RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

85. WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

86. RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)

87. QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

88. WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

89. RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

90. WR Wes Welker (New England)

91. WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

92. WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

93. WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

94. TE Brandon Myers (NY Giants)

95. WR Denarius Moore (Oakland)

96. WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

97. RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

98. WR Josh Gordon (Cleveland)

99. TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

100. QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

101. RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)

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102. TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

103. RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

104. TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

105. RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

106. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati)

107. WR Chris Givens (St. Louis)

108. RB Bryce Brown (Philadelphia)

109. WR Alshon Jeffery (Chicago)

110. WR Rod Streater (Oakland)

111. TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

112. RB Stepfan Taylor (Arizona)

113. WR Jeremy Kerley (NY Jets)

114. WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

115. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Indianapolis)

116. QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

117. TE Fred Davis (Washington)

118. RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver)

119. WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

120. WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

121. QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsbugh)

122. TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago)

123. WR Ryan Broyles (Detroit)

124. WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

125. TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

126. WR Kenbrell Thompkins (New England)

127. WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

128. RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

129. QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

130. QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

131. WR James Jones (Green Bay)

132. TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

133. TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

134. TE Zach Sudfield (New England)

135. TE Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville)

136. RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

137. RB Vick Ballard (Indianapolis)

138. RB Shonn Greene (Tennessee)

139. WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

140. WR Andre Roberts (Arizona)

141. WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh)

142. RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

143. WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

144. TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

145. WR DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)

146. TE Travis Kelce (Kansas City)

147. TE Jordan Cameron (Cleveland)

148. TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

149. RB Mike Tolbert (Carolina)

150. WR Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati)

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2013 Fantasy Football Top-15 Tight Ends

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Positional Rankings, 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, Uncategorized

1. TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

Jimmy Graham was the Saints’ leading receiver in 2011, catching 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 touchdowns, but injuries led to a league leading 15 drops in 2012 and he “only” caught 85 passes for 982 yards and 9 touchdowns in 15 games in 2012. He should get back over 1000 this season though.

Projection: 82 catches for 1020 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (156 pts standard, 238 pts PPR)

2. TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

Sure he’s a major injury risk, but Gronkowski has scored 36 times in his last 35 games. He’s worth his current ADP in the 4th round even if you can only get 10-12 games out of him. Tight end is a deep enough position that you can get by with a TE2 for a few weeks, but it’s thin enough at the top that Gronk could easily lead the position in points per game played, as he has in each of the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 60 catches for 850 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns (145 pts standard, 205 pts PPR)

3. TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

Greg Olsen was a 1st round pick in the 2007 NFL Draft and finally came into his own last season, catching a career high 69 passes for a career high 843 yards and 5 touchdowns, serving as a very good secondary receiver for Cam Newton, including 35 catches for 448 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 2nd half of the season. With Smith expected to decline a little and Newton expected to improve, Olsen could even surpass last year’s numbers.

Projection: 71 catches for 880 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (136 pts standard, 207 pts PPR)

4. TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

Vernon Davis caught just 41 passes for 548 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2012 and was even worse in the 2ndhalf of the year as he didn’t show any chemistry with new quarterback Colin Kaepernick, catching 16 passes for 174 yards and 1 touchdown in the final 8 games of the regular season. However, that changed in the post-season, as he caught 12 passes for 254 yards and a touchdown in 3 games. With another off-season working with Kaepernick, Davis should continue that kind of production and is the favorite to lead the team in receiving with Michael Crabtree out. He and Boldin are the only veteran receivers they have and Davis is simply more talented, younger, and more familiar with Kaepernick.

Projection: 58 catches for 900 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (132 pts standard, 190 pts PPR)

5. TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

Witten is one of the most dependable players in the NFL regardless of position. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2003, signing a waiver to play through a ruptured spleen week 1 of last season and his worst season since his rookie year was 2006, when he still caught 64 passes for 754 yards and 1 touchdowns. Since 2004, his 2nd season in the league, he’s averaged 86 catches for 956 yards and 5 touchdowns per season and only going into his age 31 season coming off a career high in catches, I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue.

Projection: 88 catches for 980 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (128 pts, 216 pts PPR)

6. TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

Tony Gonzalez, meanwhile, is even older, heading into his age 37 season and his 2.7 yards after catch per catch were even less than White’s. His mere 10.0 yards per catch also shows a lack of explosiveness and while he was a great possession receiver last year, he did have 13 fewer catches the year before and 23 fewer two years before that. I think it’s much more likely that his production falls off drastically than White’s.

Projection: 70 catches for 770 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (113 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

7. TE Brandon Myers (NY Giants)

Giants tight ends always seem to be productive in the passing game, regardless of who they are. Tight ends coach Mike Pope is a big part of the reason for this, as is the offensive system and Eli Manning’s tendency to throw to the tight end. Myers caught 79 passes for 804 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 101 targets last season with Carson Palmer throwing him the ball. He could match that, or even exceed that.

Projection: 74 catches for 790 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (109 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

8. TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

Jermichael Finley closed last season very well, catching 26 catches for 279 yards in the final 5 games of the season, but we’ve seen in the past he’s capable of being dominant for a short stretch of time. What we haven’t seen is him maintain that level of play over a full season as his 2011 season, in which he caught 55 passes for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns, remains his best season in 5 years in the league. I don’t expect anything different from him as in 2013.

Projection: 57 catches for 690 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (105 pts standard, 162 pts PPR)

9. TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

Owen Daniels is a very good pass catching tight end when he’s on the field and he’s only missed 2 games of the past 2 seasons, after missing 13 in the previous 2. In a weaker year for tight ends, he’s offers good value. He should be around the 62 catches for 716 yards and 5 touchdowns he had last season.

Projection: 65 catches for 740 receiving yards 5 total touchdowns (104 pts standard, 169 pts PPR)

10. TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

8/6/13: Gates gets a minor stock up with Alexander going down, but like Floyd I still don’t expect much.

Antonio Gates looks like he’s in the beginning of the end of his career. Despite plenty of opportunity, Gates managed just 49 catches for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns last season, despite actually playing in 15 games for the first time since 2009. He has a history of injury problems, missing 10 games in the last 3 seasons and being limited in countless others and, going into his age 33 season, it looks like it’s all caught up with him. He’s unlikely to improve much upon those numbers. His biggest impact will be around the goal line, as he’s still managed 24 touchdowns over 38 games over the last 3 seasons. He hasn’t had fewer than 7 touchdowns since his rookie year in 2003.

Projection: 54 catches for 610 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns (103 pts standard, 157 pts PPR)

11. TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

Jared Cook was underutilized in Tennessee and put up good per snap numbers as a receiver despite never really having great quarterback play. He has 1718 career receiving yards on 1057 career routes run, a rate of 1.63 yards per route run. For comparison, Owen Daniels had 1.63 yards per route run this season, good for 11th in the NFL. However, he doesn’t block, which is a big part of the reason why he was only a part-time player in Tennessee and he’s still relatively unproven. The Rams are paying a lot of money to find out if he can be an elite tight end in the right situation. They’ll give him every opportunity to live up to his contract, but I don’t think he will.

Projection: 45 catches for 700 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard, 145 pts PPR)

12. TE Fred Davis (Washington)

Tight end Fred Davis went down with a season ending torn Achilles early in their 7th game of the season. He was brought back on a one year prove it deal that could pay dividends if he’s healthy. He’s only played in 18 full games over the past 2 seasons thanks to injury and suspension, but he has caught 82 passes for 1110 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 18 games, despite playing 12 of them with Rex Grossman as his quarterback. We’ll see how he bounces back after his injury, but he has great natural receiving ability.

Projection: 55 catches for 750 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 154 pts PPR)

13. TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago)

Bennett was a 2nd round pick in 2008 by the Cowboys, but he was stuck as a pure blocker behind Jason Witten in 4 years in Dallas. However, he excelled as a blocker and then in his first year as a starter with the Giants, he caught 55 passes for 626 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s not a great pass catcher, but he’s one of the best all-around tight ends in the NFL. He should have similar receiving numbers this season.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (96 pts standard, 146 pts PPR)

14. TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

Gresham has made 2 Pro Bowls in his career, but he’s an overrated player who drops a lot of passes (10 last year, including 2 in their playoff loss), commits a lot of penalties (9), and doesn’t run block well. The Bengals brought in Tyler Eifert for that reason and will run more two-tight end sets, which will cut into Gresham’s targets. Look elsewhere.

Projection: 53 catches for 650 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (95 pts, 148 pts PPR)

15. TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

In his 3rd year in the league, Rudolph could more than the 53 passes he caught last season and could average more than 9.3 yards per catch, but he’s unlikely to score a touchdown on 16.9% of his catches, especially on a team that scored just 18 touchdowns through the air last season (Rudolph had 9). Don’t get suckered in with the touchdown numbers. He’s a talented tight end, but his quarterback situation makes him a mere TE2.

Projection: 57 catches for 600 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts standard, 147 pts PPR)

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