Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-1)

The 49ers lost in Seattle last week 29-3, but there’s no shame at all losing to the Seahawks in Seattle. Dating back to the start of last season, the Seahawks have won all 9 home games by an average score of 30-11. They should be able to bounce back this week, as they have every time after a loss since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season. The 49ers are 5-2 ATS off a loss in that time span, 7-2 ATS if you include week 1 games (games after a season ending playoff loss).

If you look closer, that’s even more impressive as those two non-covers included a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out. They’ve won those 7 games by an average margin of about 17 points per game, 23-6. They should be as motivated as they can be this week coming off of a loss and they might also be a little overlooked and undervalued after what happened this week.

The Colts, meanwhile, have had a lot of trouble against playoff caliber opponents over the past 2 seasons. Last year, they played 7 games against teams who finished .500 or better. They went 3-4 in those games, which isn’t awful, but those wins came by 3, 3, and 12, while the losses came by 20, 35, 12, and 15. They went as good as their 11-5 record would have suggested last season, because of all of those blowout losses (plus a 35-9 loss to the freaking Jets!) and because they had 7 wins by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 or fewer games. They were especially bad on the road last season, going 4-5 on the road with a point differential of -76 and an opponent’s overall record of 64-80.

They haven’t really looked any better this season, barely beating the Raiders at home and then losing to the Dolphins at home, a game in which they lost one of their only good offensive linemen, Donald Thomas, for the season. They will get Trent Richardson in this week through trade, but he’s unlikely to have much of an impact less than a week after joining this team. He might not even play on passing downs as he learns the blocking schemes, especially with Ahmad Bradshaw, one of the league’s premier passing down backs, behind him on the depth chart. Richardson will have an impact going forward, but the Colts should still get blown out this week by the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Indianapolis Colts 9

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Medium

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