Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

Ordinarily, I don’t like laying 19 points, but in this case, I think this line is completely justified, if not too low. The Seahawks aren’t quite as good at home as their 29-3 win over the 49ers would suggest. If you played that game 100 games, the average margin of victory would not be 26, but it would probably be at least 7-10, which is impressive in of itself against a very high quality team like the 49ers. They’ve won all 9 of their home games over the last 2 seasons and done so by an average score of 30-11.

Considering their average margin of victory has been 19, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be favored by 19 over a Jacksonville team that looks like clearly the worst team in the NFL. After essentially being shutout at home by the Chiefs week 1 (their 2 points came on a safety by the defense), they lost 19-9 in Oakland, in a game that was 19-3 before garbage time. They barely had over 100 yards of total offense before garbage time against a defense that came into the season as one of the worst in the NFL. Overall on the season, they’ve converted 55.1% of first and 10s for a subsequent first, 15.1% less than their opponents have, the worst disparity in the NFL. Before garbage time in Oakland, they actually had more punts than first downs. They’re going to have a very hard time moving the ball against the Seahawks.

If anything the Seahawks are playing better of late. They’ve won 10 of their last 12 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 195 of 297 (65.7%) for 2686 yards (9.0 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.7 points per game over last 12 games overall, including 25.2 points per game at home.

The Seahawks home dominance is nothing new though. Going back to 2007, they are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.42 points per game, and 33-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.71 points per game. They are 35-15 ATS at home in that span. They’re even better as big home favorites, going 9-3 ATS as touchdown favorites over that time span, including 5-1 ATS as 10+ point favorites. I have no problem laying the 19 here. This is going to be a bloodbath. The Seahawks are also my survivor pick.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle -19

Confidence: Medium




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