Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Denver Broncos (2-0)

I think a lot of people have forgotten how awful the Raiders were supposed to be coming into this season and I don’t understand why. They did almost beat the Colts in Indianapolis week 1, but the Colts won 7 games by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams last year, including the 2-14 Chiefs. The Colts then followed that up by losing at home to Miami. The Raiders then beat the Jaguars in Oakland last week 19-9 in a game that was actually more lopsided than the final score would suggest, but I don’t know how impressive that is. Jacksonville is definitely worse than the Raiders, but you can really say that about any other team, considering how awful the Raiders were seen to be coming into the season, and for good reason.

I think that will get exposed this week against Denver in a blowout loss and even though this line is -15.5, I feel like it would be closer to -18 a couple of weeks ago, especially considering how well the Broncos have started the season. Peyton Manning should move the ball with ease against a defense filled with generally replacement level players, especially with Tyvon Branch out as well, and put Terrelle Pryor into the kind of obvious passing situations he hasn’t been in thus far this season and that will expose him. Manning has been especially good under the national television lights in his career, going 19-6 ATS on Thursday or Monday Night in his career. I have no problem laying the 15.5 here.

Denver Broncos 37 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Denver -15.5

Confidence: Low

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