Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New York Giants (0-4)
The Giants have been outscored 69-7 in their last 2 games. That actually is a good thing for their chances this week. Teams are 36-18 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more. That makes sense. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. The Giants are definitely embarrassed at this point and they are probably undervalued, as mere 1 point favorites here against a poor Philadelphia team. However, they might not be overlooked by the Eagles in a huge divisional matchup. Dallas plays Denver this week and Washington is on a bye so the winner of this game will probably be, at most, a game back of the divisional lead.
Philadelphia also has a powerful trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. However, it’s not like they’re big dogs here (1 point) so I don’t know if it’s that powerful. Ultimately, these two trends might not have a ton of effect on the game.
That being said, the Giants should be the right side. I think this line is too low. The Giants are a better team than the Eagles, in my opinion. They’ve been destroyed by turnovers this year, with a -9 turnover margin, 3rd worst in the NFL. However, that type of thing tends to be inconsistent. Eli Manning has a career 3.3% interception rate. He won’t throw an interception on 6.0% of his attempts for the rest of the season. The Giants also won’t continue recovering 30.8% of fumbles on the ground all season.
The Giants’ offensive struggles go beyond turnovers this season, but they should be able to move the ball here because the Eagles have the type of defense that you can do whatever you want with. They’ve allowed 112 first downs and forced 11 punts all season. They’re allowing opponents to move the chains on 85% of opportunities. The Giants’ defense isn’t great either, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities, but I like the Giants in a must win game more than the Eagles and I think they’re the better team.
New York Giants 31 Philadelphia Eagles 27
Pick against spread: NY Giants -1
Confidence: Low
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