Month: November 2013

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Green Bay Packers (5-5)

One of the most powerful trends in football says that divisional home favorites rarely cover before being divisional road dogs. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002, which is ridiculously low and impossible to ignore. The Packers are in that spot this week, as they go to Detroit next week. Making matters even worse, that game is just a few days after this one on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Teams are 27-50 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw the Colts and Titans both fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010 last week in this scenario, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. The Packers are in no position to be favored by more than 3 against pretty much anyone right now, with Scott Tolzien under center. They are arguably one of the worst teams in the NFL without Aaron Rodgers. It’s a strong play on the Vikings.

Green Bay Packers 24 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against spread: Minnesota +5

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)

I’ve maintained all along that the Chiefs are not as good as their record. Going into last week’s game, they had the NFL’s easiest schedule according to DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account all of the backup quarterbacks they faced. However, despite that, they were 23rd in the NFL in points per drive. They proved that they weren’t as good as their record by failing to cover an 8 point spread in Denver last week in a 27-17 loss.

They have an elite defense for sure, but their offense might actually be one of the worst in the NFL. They’re way too reliant on winning the turnover battle (+15), return touchdowns (+7), and recovering fumbles (66.7%), three things that are tough to rely on consistently. They aren’t a bad team by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re not as good as their record. Football Outsiders has them 9th in DVOA, which I think is very reasonable.

The public still seems to be overrating them as they are all over them as 5.5 point favorites here. I think this might actually be a little high. The Chargers are better than their record. They are 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They move the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, which ranks 12th. In terms of DVOA, they are 16th. With the Chiefs moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 66% for their opponents, I have this line calculated at about 5 and even that might be too high.

The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. This is a sandwich game for them in between both Denver games. Teams are 74-96 ATS as favorites after a loss as underdogs before being underdogs once again since 2008. Meanwhile, since 1989, teams are 13-29 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional home dogs. The Chargers, on the other hand, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. They lost in Miami in this same sandwich game spot last week, which is probably part of why they are being undervalued. Finally, favorites are 28-42 ATS as favorites off of their first loss week 6 or later since 1989. It’s a strong play on the Chargers.

San Diego Chargers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Upset Pick +190

Pick Against Spread: San Diego +5.5

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Lions, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Detroit Lions (6-4)

The Buccaneers may just be 2-8, but they are better than their record. Before the season, I said they had 7 of the top-200 players in the NFL (Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, Dashon Goldson, Darrelle Revis, Gerald McCoy, Doug Martin, and Lavonte David). Doug Martin is out for the season, Carl Nicks is out indefinitely, and Dashon Goldson will miss this game with a suspension, but that still leaves 4 top level players, who have all lived up to their billing, five if you include breakout right tackle DeMar Dotson. Among those players, Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis are both playing at an All-Pro level and you could maybe say the same thing for Lavonte David.

Now that Mike Glennon has settled in and is playing decent football, this team is no pushover. They’ve won their last 2 games, including a home game against the Falcons last week that was a huge blowout for most of the game before garbage time. The Falcons aren’t very good obviously, but blowing out anyone is impressive. The Buccaneers are 1-4 in games decent by a touchdown or less and their point differential is only at -50, which is comparable to several 4-6 and 5-5 teams. This is despite facing a pretty tough schedule.

In terms of DVOA, they are 17th, while their opponent here, the Lions, are just 15th. The Buccaneers rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, while the Lions rank 12th, moving them at a 77% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponent. We’re getting way too many points with the Buccaneers at +9.5.

The Lions could also be in a look ahead spot with a Thanksgiving game against the Packers coming up next week. Teams are 27-50 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw the Colts and Titans both fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010 last week in this scenario, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers.

The Lions could especially be looking ahead because it’s such an important divisional game, it’s a Thanksgiving game (where they haven’t had success recently), and it’s against a Green Bay team that they have been pretty much unable to beat for a good decade. They have some demons to exercise next week and a good chance of doing so with Aaron Rodgers’ status unclear. That could really trip them up this week. The only reason this isn’t a significant play is because the Buccaneers have to go to Carolina next week and teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. They too could be distracted. They should still be the right side though.

Detroit Lions 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +9.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jets, Ravens, Uncategorized

New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6)

So far, the Jets have alternated wins and losses over the first 10 games, the first team in NFL history to do so. Can they extend that into 11 games and win here in Baltimore? Well, I think the fact that they’ve done so well off of losses this season is something worth noting. The public tends to overreact to their losses because they’re the Jets and they’re the media’s punching bad. The Jets do a very good job feeding off of that and winning as an undervalued and overlooked opponent. The Jets are also in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. They could overlook the Jets with a game against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites are 27-50 ATS before a Thursday Night Game since 2008, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw both the Titans and Colts fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and last week the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers with a push. The Ravens are also coming off a crushing overtime loss as underdogs in Chicago last week. Home favorites are 18-30 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as road underdogs in overtime.

All that being said, I can’t put anything on the Jets. The Ravens are pretty unbeatable at home, going 26-4 straight up since 2010. Those 4 losses include two against the rival Steelers, who always play the Ravens tough, the Packers, and the Broncos. I really don’t think the Jets are that caliber. Even this year, when they’ve struggled by their standards, they are 4-1 at home, losing only by 2 against the Packers and covering in all 5 instances. The Jets don’t have to win here to cover, which is why I think they’re the right side, but we’re not getting enough points here for me to be that confident in the Jets. If this line increases, I might increase the confidence. The Ravens are just 6-10 ATS since 2010 as home favorites of 5.5 or more. That’s a long way away though.

Baltimore Ravens 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-8)

This line was at 6.5 last week. Now it’s at 9 and the public is still all over the Saints. The Saints are awesome and the Falcons suck. How can the Saints not win by double digits right? Well, that seems to be what the public is thinking as the public is all over the Saints. That alone leads me to think about going with Atlanta. Atlanta hasn’t appeared to put forth much effort over the past few weeks, losing 4 straight by a combined 74 points. It’s very possible that they’ve just quit as they are unaccustomed to this kind of losing. However, I think they’re still capable of putting forth a decent performance at home and keep this competitive in a game they actually care about, with the rival Saints coming to town.

They have always done well off of a loss in the Mike Smith era, at least until this year. Off of a loss, they are 20-10 ATS since 2008, though just 2-5 ATS this season. I think they can summon some of that for this one, now that they’ve officially hit rock bottom and can’t go any deeper. They’ve also been a very good home team in the Mike Smith era, going 30-12 straight up. They are just 2-3 there this year, but they’ve still been a much better home team than road team and of their recent rough stretch, only one game was at home.

The Saints, meanwhile, have not been the same team on the road over the past few years. Drew Brees’ quarterback rating on the road since 2008 is about 12 points lower and this year, they’ve lost in New York to the Jets and in New England. They also barely won in Tampa Bay. Only their 8 point win in Chicago has been impressive for the Saints on the road this season and even that wasn’t that impressive. The Saints are an incredibly dominant home team, a huge part of the reason why they are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, but they’re not the same on the road.

I think this line might be a little inflated. The Saints could also be caught looking forward to Seattle next week and Carolina the week after that, after last week’s big win over the 49ers. I’m not confident at all though because it’s very possible the Falcons have just mailed in the season and the Saints are legitimately a top-3 team in the NFL, while the Falcons might be a bottom-3 team, but the Falcons should be the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Atlanta Falcons 27

Pick against spread: Atlanta +9

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3)

Brady/Manning 14. That has to be some kind of record for non-divisional quarterbacks (I actually don’t know this. If someone does, let me know). This is the greatest quarterback battle in NFL history. What guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck etc. have done in recent years is cute, but Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been that good consistently for over a decade despite everything changing around them. We have two elite, elite quarterbacks who face each other every year despite the fact that they are not divisional opponents, because they are able to stay in 1st place so long. On top of that, almost every game has had a memorable ending. Purely as a football fan, I can’t wait for this game.

Now onto the actual pick. The Patriots lost last week in Carolina, but result aside, they’ve played very well offensively over the past 2 weeks, with 61 first downs to 3 punts. Their offense really seems to have woken up with Tom Brady playing better, Aaron Dobson breaking out, and Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola finally healthy. They could have easily beaten Carolina if it wasn’t for a -2 turnover margin, which isn’t the norm for this team, and we can assume an explosive offense once again going forward for them.

In spite of that, the public seems to be down on the Patriots after last week’s loss, as the majority of the action is on Denver. In addition to the fact that I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, I also think this is incorrect. Carolina is a top-5 team. There’s no shame in a close loss in there on the road. In fact, result aside, I’m more impressed with the Patriots after the game than I was before.

The Panthers are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents and the Broncos have a very similar differential, moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. If New England can almost win in Carolina, why are we getting a whole field goal with them at home? The Patriots are now moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, which suggests this line should be around a point, before you even get into the fact that the Patriots are playing better football now than the start of the season.

That’s also before you get into the fact that the Patriots are in a great spot as home underdogs before being road favorites. Teams are 64-39 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Patriots have absolutely no distractions with a trip to Houston on deck, while the Broncos are in between two games against the Chiefs, which are much more important to the Broncos’ seeding than this one. Because the Patriots lost last week, the Broncos will still control their destiny to the #1 seed if they lose this game, but they won’t if they win this game and lose next week. The Broncos won’t sleepwalk through this game or anything. After all, it’s Brady/Manning. However, the Patriots will be less distracted.

The Patriots are also in a spot where they traditionally cover. Simply put, Tom Brady dominates in this specific situation. The fact that they lost last week actually bodes well for their chances of covering this week. Tom Brady is 28-15 ATS off of a loss in his career. He’s also fantastic as an underdog or a small favorite. In his career, Brady is 29-14 ATS as an underdog and 40-16 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of 2.5 or fewer. At home, he’s 7-2 ATS as an underdog in his career and he’s 12-2 ATS as a home underdog or home favorite of 2.5 or fewer. In fact, he hasn’t been an underdog at home since 2005. As an underdog off of a loss, he’s 12-2 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog off of a loss as an underdog. He dominates when doubted and off of a loss and that’s the exact situation he’s in this week.

And if the opponent is a high level opponent, even better. In his career, Tom Brady is 27-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his. Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.4% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 71.1% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 28-9-1 ATS, including 17-5 ATS as underdogs. Tom Brady always brings his best for the best opponents and he’ll do the same this week.

The Broncos also might be a little overrated here. We know they’re a dominant team at home, but on the road, they’ve won by 3 in Dallas, lost in Indianapolis, and won by just 8 in San Diego, with the Chargers scoring 4 times (2 touchdowns, 2 field goals) to Denver’s 4 scores (4 touchdowns), even though Denver was coming off of a bye. Their only impressive road win came in New York against the Giants and they were playing awful football at the time. I’m not saying the Broncos are a bad road team, but it’s very, very tough for any team to be dominant on the road and it’s very, very tough for any team to win on the road against a top level opponent (just ask the Patriots last week).

They’ve also shown cracks since that amazing start they got off to. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 5 games, Peyton Manning has completed 136 of 217 (62.7%) for 1688 yards (7.79 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. His numbers from his past 5 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is. He’s a 37-year-old quarterback who isn’t 100% with two bad ankles and now he has to go on the road to the cold in New England.

He could also be without two of his weapons as Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are both dealing with injuries. Wes Welker will need to get cleared by doctors because he suffered a concussion last week, while Julius Thomas injured his knee and has yet to practice. I’m not saying they’re definitely going to be out, but it’s worth noting. Peyton Manning won’t suddenly struggle without them and he still has plenty of weapons, but Peyton Manning is having probably the best season of his career this year because of the addition of Welker and the emergence of Thomas. Take them out of the mix and he could struggle a little bit more than usual by this season’s standards. Add everything together and I love the Patriots’ chances of winning a shootout at home and, as long as I’m getting a field goal, this is my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 34 Denver Broncos 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New England +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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2013 Week 11 NFL Pick Results

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Week 11

Straight Up: 10-5

Against the Spread: 8-5-2

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-1

Medium Confidence: 1-1

Low Confidence: 4-0

No Confidence: 2-2-2

Upset Picks: 2-3

2013

Straight Up: 110-52

Against the Spread: 100-58-4

Pick of the Week: 6-5

High Confidence: 16-5

Medium Confidence: 24-14

Low Confidence: 26-12-1

No Confidence: 28-22-3

Upset Picks: 20-15

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2013 Week 12 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB Bobby Rainey (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.3%

It looked like fullback type Brian Leonard would be the new starter in Tampa Bay with Doug Martin and Mike James hurt, as Leonard had 20 carries the week before against Miami. However, the Buccaneers decided to unleash Bobby Rainey instead and he rushed for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns on 30 carries, with another touchdown through the air on 2 catches for 4 yards. It’s very possible this is his best game of the season because he won’t be able to face Atlanta’s putrid defense weekly, but he’s obviously worth owning universally. He’ll be the clear starter going forward.

RB Donald Brown (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.8%

Chuck Pagano says that the Colts are going to go with the hot hand at running back going forward and right now that’s obviously Donald Brown. He carried the ball 14 times against Tennessee, more than twice as many times as Trent Richardson did, and took them for 80 yards, while Trent Richardson is rushing for 2.8 yards per carry since joining the Colts via trade. He could easily be the lead back going forward. He’s worth a bench stash

WR Aaron Dobson (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 13.9%

Aaron Dobson didn’t have the best game against Carolina, but he’ll face easier matchups going forward and he still has been very good statistically over the past 5 games. Over those past 5 games, he’s caught 23 passes for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s worth owning as a bench stash and could be worth a start in a few games going forward.

TE John Carlson (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.4%

In 2 games since Kyle Rudolph got hurt, John Carlson, the new starting tight end, has caught 12 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown. Rudolph is out for the remainder of the season, leaving Carlson as the starter and Christian Ponder seems to enjoy throwing to him. If you need tight end help, consider picking up Carlson.

RB Chris Ogbonnaya (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.7%

It appears the Browns have grown tired Willis McGahee sucking, as the ancient running back is rushing for 2.6 yards per carry. Chris Ogbonnaya led the Browns in rushing against the Bengals, rushing for 69 yards on 8 carries and could be the lead back going forward. He also is a pass catcher, catching 34 passes for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns on the season, including 6 catches for 30 yards last week. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)

This is one I could go either way on. Both teams are in good spots and distraction free. The Ravens host the Jets next week and will be favored, while the Bears go to St. Louis and will be favored. Non-divisional home favorites are 69-47 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road dogs and non-divisional road dogs are 98-63 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites.

These two teams are also as evenly matched as they come. Baltimore has a horrible offense that is moving the chains at a 68% rate, but their defense is holding opponents to 68% as well. Chicago has a horrible defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate, but their offense moves the chains at a 77% rate. They are 16th and 15th respectively in rate of moving the chains differential and this line at 3 makes perfect sense. We’re not getting any line value with either side.

Chicago is dealing with crippling injuries. Before the season, the Bears had 6 above average or better starters, Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, Charles Tillman, and Major Wright. Henry Melton is already out for the season. Charles Tillman is now out until the playoffs, if they can make them. Lance Briggs is out indefinitely. None of those guys were playing up to their ability before going down anyway. Julius Peppers is showing his age and Major Wright is regressing in a major way.

Their defense could get worse going forward, which would put even more pressure on their offense, which is also dealing with a serious injury as Jay Cutler is out. Josh McCown has played well in Cutler’s absence, arguably as good as Cutler could have, completing 60.0% of his passes for an average of 7.69 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. There are no guarantees he can keep that up though, given his career numbers (58.7%, 6.37 YPA, 41 touchdowns, 44 interceptions), despite the strong offensive supporting cast and coaching staff.

Baltimore, however, has been absolutely awful on the road thus far this season, going 1-4, losing in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, while getting blown out in Denver. This isn’t a new trend. Since 2010, they are 26-4 at home, but 18-17 on the road. At the end of the day, I’m going to fade the Ravens on the road, but I’m not confident in Chicago at all. This is the biggest toss up of the week for me.

Chicago Bears 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers are 3-6, but they are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which is a differential that ranks 17th in the NFL. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11 on the season), an inability to recover fumbles (28.6%), and return touchdowns (-2 in return touchdowns), but those things are all related and all very inconsistent. The Lions are a good team, moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, but we’re still getting some line value with Pittsburgh +3.

The Lions are also in a bad spot after last week’s close win in Chicago. Favorites are 28-59 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 as road favorites the week before. They have a one game lead on the division, an easy schedule upcoming, and the two teams within a game of them in the division are missing their starting quarterbacks with injury. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they started to coast a little bit. As long as we’re getting a field goal with the Steelers, they should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: Low

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