Oakland Raiders (4-10) at San Diego Chargers (7-7)
Both of these teams are in bad spots this week and both of those have to do with Denver. Oakland has to deal with Denver next week so they might not be completely focused for the Chargers here, at least not enough to keep it close. Teams are 37-67 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012, which the Raiders almost certainly will be next week. Going off of that, the Raiders will probably be double digit home underdogs next week. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs and teams are 16-40 ATS since 2002 before being double digit home underdogs, including 3-14 ATS before being divisional double digit home underdogs. Furthermore, teams are 22-45 ATS in their first of two or more straight games as double digit underdogs since 2002. The Raiders are in no position to be keeping this one close and covering this spread this week.
However, the Chargers are in a bad spot as well after last week’s win in Denver. Teams are 35-56 ATS since 2002 after a win as road underdogs of 10 or more. The Chargers got an emotional upset victory last week and that could cause a hangover effect this week, especially against such a lowly opponent. That win also caused a huge line movement as this line went from 7.5 to 10 in the span of a week.
That being said, the Chargers aren’t in as bad of a spot as the Raiders are and they’ve had extra rest to prepare for this game, as it was on a Thursday Night, so that could counteract some of the hangover effect. On top of that, while the line movement did cost us some line value with the Chargers, we’re still getting value with them and not the Raiders, even at 10. The Chargers are a legitimately very solid team, while the Raiders are one of the worst in the NFL.
The Chargers move the chains at a 78.71% rate, as opposed to 76.24% for their opponents, a differential of 2.71% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 30th, moving the chains at a 67.49% rate, as opposed to 73.56% for their opponents, a differential of -6.08. That suggests this line should actually be around 11.5. I’m not that confident in the Chargers because we could see a letdown game from them, but they should be the right side against a bottom-5 team that has a bigger game next week. The Chargers are also my Survivor Pick of the week.
San Diego Chargers 34 Oakland Raiders 20 Survivor Pick
Pick against spread: San Diego -10