What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.
Offense
| Team | First downs | Touchdowns | Punts | Turnovers | Failed 4th downs | Field goal attempts | ||
| 1 | Denver | 435 | 71 | 65 | 26 | 1 | 26 | 81.09% |
| 2 | San Diego | 373 | 41 | 56 | 21 | 1 | 37 | 78.26% |
| 3 | New Orleans | 359 | 49 | 61 | 19 | 10 | 32 | 76.98% |
| 4 | Chicago | 344 | 45 | 68 | 23 | 5 | 29 | 75.68% |
| 5 | Green Bay | 351 | 42 | 64 | 25 | 4 | 37 | 75.14% |
| 6 | Carolina | 319 | 38 | 70 | 19 | 3 | 27 | 75.00% |
| 7 | Philadelphia | 355 | 51 | 82 | 19 | 7 | 28 | 74.91% |
| 8 | New England | 378 | 44 | 77 | 20 | 8 | 41 | 74.30% |
| 9 | Dallas | 325 | 45 | 77 | 20 | 2 | 30 | 74.15% |
| 10 | Detroit | 350 | 44 | 72 | 34 | 9 | 24 | 73.92% |
| 11 | Atlanta | 330 | 37 | 68 | 28 | 8 | 27 | 73.69% |
| 12 | Cincinnati | 330 | 47 | 75 | 30 | 9 | 22 | 73.49% |
| 13 | Seattle | 307 | 41 | 74 | 19 | 5 | 35 | 72.35% |
| 14 | Indianapolis | 318 | 38 | 76 | 14 | 7 | 40 | 72.21% |
| 15 | Kansas City | 323 | 41 | 88 | 18 | 7 | 28 | 72.08% |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | 312 | 37 | 75 | 24 | 6 | 32 | 71.81% |
| 17 | Tennessee | 311 | 38 | 78 | 25 | 6 | 29 | 71.66% |
| 18 | Arizona | 329 | 36 | 78 | 31 | 4 | 36 | 71.01% |
| 19 | Minnesota | 309 | 41 | 75 | 32 | 9 | 30 | 70.56% |
| 20 | San Francisco | 286 | 39 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 36 | 70.35% |
| 21 | Washington | 329 | 34 | 84 | 34 | 14 | 26 | 69.67% |
| 22 | St. Louis | 282 | 32 | 78 | 29 | 12 | 28 | 68.11% |
| 23 | Cleveland | 301 | 30 | 85 | 29 | 17 | 26 | 67.83% |
| 24 | Oakland | 275 | 33 | 84 | 31 | 5 | 30 | 67.25% |
| 25 | Houston | 307 | 26 | 88 | 31 | 11 | 35 | 66.87% |
| 26 | Miami | 278 | 32 | 85 | 26 | 9 | 34 | 66.81% |
| 27 | Tampa Bay | 269 | 28 | 87 | 21 | 14 | 29 | 66.29% |
| 28 | Buffalo | 301 | 31 | 96 | 27 | 10 | 36 | 66.27% |
| 29 | NY Jets | 280 | 25 | 88 | 29 | 7 | 36 | 65.59% |
| 30 | Baltimore | 295 | 26 | 90 | 29 | 10 | 41 | 65.38% |
| 31 | NY Giants | 280 | 29 | 91 | 44 | 6 | 26 | 64.92% |
| 32 | Jacksonville | 271 | 23 | 95 | 27 | 17 | 25 | 64.19% |
Defense
| Team | First Downs | Touchdowns | Punts | Turnovers | Failed 4th downs | Field goal attempts | ||
| 1 | Cincinnati | 282 | 28 | 89 | 31 | 11 | 31 | 65.68% |
| 2 | Baltimore | 284 | 32 | 98 | 24 | 6 | 35 | 65.97% |
| 3 | Seattle | 282 | 20 | 81 | 39 | 7 | 27 | 66.23% |
| 4 | San Francisco | 284 | 30 | 85 | 30 | 13 | 25 | 67.24% |
| 5 | Carolina | 278 | 21 | 72 | 30 | 8 | 34 | 67.49% |
| 6 | Buffalo | 308 | 38 | 94 | 30 | 6 | 36 | 67.58% |
| 7 | Kansas City | 303 | 34 | 87 | 36 | 9 | 28 | 67.81% |
| 8 | Arizona | 309 | 34 | 88 | 30 | 10 | 32 | 68.19% |
| 9 | Detroit | 290 | 34 | 84 | 22 | 3 | 40 | 68.50% |
| 10 | New Orleans | 274 | 31 | 83 | 19 | 8 | 28 | 68.85% |
| 11 | Houston | 282 | 40 | 91 | 11 | 5 | 35 | 69.40% |
| 12 | NY Jets | 293 | 35 | 80 | 15 | 11 | 37 | 69.64% |
| 13 | NY Giants | 327 | 33 | 86 | 29 | 11 | 30 | 69.77% |
| 14 | Miami | 327 | 31 | 77 | 24 | 7 | 40 | 70.75% |
| 15 | Pittsburgh | 303 | 39 | 79 | 20 | 11 | 31 | 70.81% |
| 16 | New England | 338 | 36 | 80 | 29 | 17 | 27 | 70.97% |
| 17 | Indianapolis | 319 | 35 | 75 | 27 | 9 | 30 | 71.52% |
| 18 | Cleveland | 328 | 42 | 88 | 21 | 5 | 32 | 71.71% |
| 19 | Tennessee | 329 | 36 | 76 | 25 | 4 | 39 | 71.71% |
| 20 | Denver | 339 | 44 | 87 | 26 | 11 | 26 | 71.86% |
| 21 | Tampa Bay | 324 | 40 | 66 | 31 | 6 | 32 | 72.95% |
| 22 | Philadelphia | 368 | 37 | 74 | 31 | 12 | 32 | 73.10% |
| 23 | St. Louis | 337 | 39 | 74 | 29 | 7 | 26 | 73.44% |
| 24 | Washington | 329 | 52 | 74 | 26 | 5 | 25 | 74.56% |
| 25 | Green Bay | 330 | 46 | 69 | 22 | 7 | 30 | 74.60% |
| 26 | Oakland | 330 | 48 | 74 | 22 | 4 | 28 | 74.70% |
| 27 | Atlanta | 326 | 45 | 62 | 21 | 4 | 35 | 75.25% |
| 28 | San Diego | 327 | 37 | 65 | 17 | 7 | 30 | 75.36% |
| 29 | Jacksonville | 353 | 49 | 75 | 21 | 3 | 29 | 75.85% |
| 30 | Minnesota | 368 | 51 | 77 | 20 | 7 | 29 | 75.91% |
| 31 | Chicago | 353 | 47 | 58 | 28 | 4 | 30 | 76.92% |
| 32 | Dallas | 388 | 50 | 61 | 27 | 9 | 29 | 77.66% |
Differential
| Team | ||
| 1 | Denver | 9.23% |
| 2 | New Orleans | 8.13% |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 7.81% |
| 4 | Carolina | 7.51% |
| 5 | Seattle | 6.12% |
| 6 | Detroit | 5.42% |
| 7 | Kansas City | 4.27% |
| 8 | New England | 3.33% |
| 9 | San Francisco | 3.11% |
| 10 | San Diego | 2.90% |
| 11 | Arizona | 2.82% |
| 12 | Philadelphia | 1.80% |
| 13 | Pittsburgh | 1.00% |
| 14 | Indianapolis | 0.70% |
| 15 | Green Bay | 0.54% |
| 16 | Tennessee | -0.05% |
| 17 | Baltimore | -0.59% |
| 18 | Chicago | -1.24% |
| 19 | Buffalo | -1.31% |
| 20 | Atlanta | -1.56% |
| 21 | Houston | -2.53% |
| 22 | Dallas | -3.51% |
| 23 | Cleveland | -3.88% |
| 24 | Miami | -3.94% |
| 25 | NY Jets | -4.05% |
| 26 | NY Giants | -4.85% |
| 27 | Washington | -4.89% |
| 28 | St. Louis | -5.32% |
| 29 | Minnesota | -5.34% |
| 30 | Tampa Bay | -6.65% |
| 31 | Oakland | -7.45% |
| 32 | Jacksonville | -11.66% |
Projected Wild Card Lines
| CIN/SD | 7.91 |
| GB/SF | 0.43 |
| NO/PHI | 3.33 |
| KC/IND | 0.58 |
Two playoff teams, Green Bay and Philadelphia, haven’t had their current starting quarterback for all 16 games, for different reasons. For handicapping purposes, I’ve calculated their offensive rate of moving the chains in games in which Aaron Rodgers and Nick Foles respectively started and finished the game. The results are, unsurprisingly, a significant difference. In fact, those rate of moving the chains would be 4th (Green Bay) and 2nd (Philadelphia) over the course of a full season. I could have done the same thing for Kansas City, subtracting out their week 17 results, but they actually played so well even with their backups that it didn’t change much. Before week 17, they are at 4.37% in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. Now they are at 4.27%.
| Green Bay | 186 | 24 | 26 | 11 | 2 | 21 | 77.78% |
| Philadelphia | 203 | 37 | 44 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 78.69% |
If we subtract their rate of moving the chains allowed from those, Green Bay would be at 3.17%, which would be good for 10th in the NFL, and Philadelphia would be at 5.58%, good for 6th in the NFL. If we have these adjusted differentials, all 12 playoff teams would be in the top-15 with positive differential, which is great because it means there aren’t any truly undeserving playoff teams (Chicago, Dallas, and Miami all had a chance to be). Below are the 2013 playoff teams in order of rate of moving the chains differential, with Green Bay’s, Philadelphia’s, and Kansas City’s adjusted differentials.
| Team | ||
| 1 | Denver | 9.23% |
| 2 | New Orleans | 8.13% |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 7.81% |
| 4 | Carolina | 7.51% |
| 5 | Seattle | 6.12% |
| 6 | Philadelphia | 5.58% |
| 7 | Kansas City | 4.37% |
| 8 | New England | 3.33% |
| 9 | Green Bay | 3.17% |
| 10 | San Francisco | 3.11% |
| 11 | San Diego | 2.90% |
| 12 | Indianapolis | 0.70% |
The other 3 non-playoff teams in the top-15 are Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, who all have a good chance to make the playoffs in 2014. Below are the projected wild card round line adjusted for these new adjusted rate of moving the chains differentials. I’ve also adjusted it for Kansas City’s pre-week 17 differential, but it didn’t make much of a difference.
| CIN/SD | 7.91 |
| GB/SF | 3.07 |
| PHI/NO | 0.45 |
| KC/IND | 0.67 |
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