Year: 2013

Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders, Uncategorized

Last week: 25 (-3)

Record: 3-8

Any talk of the Redskins benching RG3 is just absurd media sensationalism. This is what the media does. They build players up to undeservedly high levels and then destroy them when they fail to meet those expectations. RG3 isn’t even having that bad of a season, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, to go with 372 rushing yards on 70 carries. The Redskins’ offense is moving the chains at a 75% rate. The defense is a much bigger problem. For a 2nd year quarterback 10-11 months removed from an ACL tear, that’s not bad. Even Tom Brady wasn’t the same the year after his ACL tear and he had 4 extra months to recover, less dependency on athleticism, and no prior knee injury history. This is just something Griffin will have to play through. He’ll have his legs back under him by next year. Shutting him down will just delay his recovery. The Redskins still made the right choice trading for him and need to continue making the right choice by letting him play and keeping Mike Shanahan.

Week 12 Studs

None

Week 12 Duds

CB Josh Wilson

TE Logan Paulsen

QB Robert Griffin

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 27 (-2)

Record: 4-8

Matt McGloin has been decent through 3 games, completing 62 of 109 for 799 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, stealing the starting job away from a struggling Terrelle Pryor. However, Raiders fans anointing him a starting caliber quarterback need to remember that they did the same thing with Terrelle Pryor a few weeks ago. I’ll need a few more weeks to be sold on McGloin, especially since he’s 7 months removed from no one drafting him. The Raiders may once again find themselves in need of a quarterback this off-season.

Week 12 Studs

RE LaMarr Houston

DT Pat Sims

DT Vance Walker

MLB Nick Roach

Week 12 Duds

LG Lucas Nix

CB Tracy Porter

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 2-9

Coming into this week, 24 of the NFL’s 32 teams were either in a playoff spot or within 1 game of a playoff spot. Of the 8 who weren’t, 4 of them made the playoffs last year, including this Falcon team. The Falcons, Texans, Vikings, and Redskins combined to go 45-19 last season, but now sit at a combined 9-32-1. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Lions, Cardinals, and Eagles combined to go 15-49 last year, but now sit at a combined 29-16. Add in the previously 7-9 Saints and Panthers who will probably make the playoffs and you have the definition of a parity league.

Week 12 Studs

None

Week 12 Duds

RT Jeremy Trueblood

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon

FS Thomas DeCoud

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Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 2-8-1

The Vikings blew their chance at a win last week as Green Bay came back to tie it, but it might have been more beneficial to lose that game at this point. Tying essentially locks them out of the #1 pick unless Houston, Jacksonville, and Atlanta can all win one more game. The Vikings probably don’t need to worry about winning any more games though as their final 5 opponents all have .500 or better records right now.

Week 12 Studs

FB Rhett Ellison

RT Phil Loadholt

RE Jared Allen

DT Kevin Williams

CB Xavier Rhodes

Week 12 Duds

LE Everson Griffen

LOLB Chad Greenway

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 2-9

The Jaguars may have won 2 games, but make no mistake about it, this is still one of the all-time bad NFL teams. While their two wins have been close by a touchdown or less, all 9 of their losses have come by double digits. They have easily the worst point differential in the NFL at -182. No one else is worse than -101. Their -14% rate of moving the chains differential is also easily the worst in the NFL, with no one else worse than -7%. In terms of DVOA, they are not only the worst team in the NFL by far this season, but they 4th worst team in terms of DVOA through 11 games since Football Outsiders started keeping the stat in 1991. The Jaguars desperately need a franchise quarterback to help them right the ship as fast as possible, but if they keep winning like this, they may be blowing their chances. They’ll need to lose to Houston in the rematch next week, in the Teddy Bridgewater bowl.

Week 12 Studs

RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Week 12 Duds

LT Cameron Bradfield

RT Austin Pasztor

LG Will Rackley

RG Uche Nwaneri

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (5-6) at New York Jets (5-6)

The Jets snapped their streak of alternating wins and losses by losing in Baltimore last week and now sit at 5-6. Geno Smith seems to have hit a rookie wall, completing 25 of 64 (39.1%) for 345 yards (5.39 YPA), no touchdowns, and 5 interceptions over the past 3 weeks. So they suck and should be avoided at all costs right? Well that seems to be what the public thinks as they want no part of the Jets as favorites, making the Dolphins a public underdog.

Well, there’s some truth to that. Geno Smith is easily playing like a bottom-3 quarterback right now and the Jets actually have the 2nd worst point differential in the NFL at -101, only better than Jacksonville. They are moving the chains at a mere 66% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, which ranks 27th in the NFL. However, the Dolphins might actually be worse. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, thanks to large part to a dysfunctional (in more ways than one) offensive line. Defensively, they are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations.

That’s 30th in the NFL and suggests that the Jets should actually be favored by more than two points. They still have a phenomenal defensive line with 3 players who are all deserving of Pro-Bowl consideration (Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson). They can overwhelm the weakness of the Dolphins, their offensive line, and force the Dolphins’ offense down to the level of the Jets’ offense.

I also like how the Jets have dealt with adversity and the public and the media thinking they’re terrible over the past 2 years. This could be a real statement game for them as they seek to stay alive in the playoff race. The Jets have also been better at home this season, going 4-1 including wins over New Orleans and New England, as opposed to 1-4 on the road, where they’ve dropped their last two. Geno Smith’s quarterback rating is close to 20 points higher at home than on the road, but the Jets could win this game even if he doesn’t play well. Teams are more than just quarterbacks, especially this one. Smith completed just 8 passes in their win over the Saints. I’m taking the Jets and fading the public underdog as long as this line is 3 or lower, but I’m not that confident.

New York Jets 13 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (4-7) at Washington Redskins (3-8)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line seems pretty off at first glance. The Giants aren’t significantly better than the Redskins, which is what this line would suggest, as the Giants are favored in Washington. The Redskins were favored by 1.5 points last week in the early line, so the line has essentially shifted 3 points in a week as a result of the Redskins’ very public blowout loss to the 49ers at home. The Redskins didn’t look good, but they still might be a better team than the Giants.

They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a differential that is 22nd in the NFL. The Giants, on the other hand, are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponent, which ranks 28th. This suggests the Redskins should be favored by 4.5 points. Even if the Giants are a better team than the Redskins, it’s hard to make the argument that they’re 4.5 points better, which is what them being favored by 1.5 points on the road suggests. Football Outsiders backs this up as the Giants are just 26th in DVOA, while the Redskins are 29th. That’s pretty even.

The Redskins didn’t play well against the 49ers last week, but the 49ers are a very good team, especially off of a loss. They’ve been blowing out sub-.500 teams all season, beating them by about an average of 20.3 points per game, which is about what the Redskins lost by. There’s not a ton of shame in that. That loss also puts them in a good spot as home underdogs are 65-45 ATS since 2002 off of a loss as home underdogs. The Giants are also in a bad spot going on the road off of 3 straight home games as favorites. Teams are 26-41 ATS in that spot since 1989, including 18-31 ATS as road favorites. The Giants aren’t used to being away from home.

On the other hand, the Redskins seem to be self-destructing a little bit. On the season, they might be the better team than the Giants, but maybe not right now. They seem to be getting worse by the week, while the Giants have solved a lot of their turnover issues and are getting key players healthy. The Giants might not be 4.5 points better than the Redskins either way, but consider that NFC East teams usually are much better on the road than at home.

The NFC East is 43-75 ATS at home, as opposed to 67-54 ATS on the road. As a result, the home team in divisional matchups is just 17-27 ATS over that time frame and 26-44 ATS if you expand the sample size back to 2008. The Giants in particular are 52-32 ATS on the road since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004. Winning on the road, especially against still a small line, might not be that big of a deal.

While the Redskins are in a good spot as home underdogs off a loss as home underdogs, they’re also in a bad spot as home underdogs before being home underdogs as the Chiefs come to town next week. Teams are 67-91 ATS in that spot since 2002. Since 1989, teams are 8-16 ATS as home underdogs before being home underdogs after a loss as home underdogs, so that trend would seem to nullify the previous trend and then some.

There is also a trend that benefits the Giants as teams are 47-31 ATS as road favorites off of a loss by 1-3 points as home favorites. The Giants lost by 3 to the Cowboys last week, in another example of NFC East road supremacy. The Giants might just continue that this week, against a small line. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Redskins and fading the heavy public lean on the Giants, but I’m not confident at all.

Washington Redskins 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Washington +1.5

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Eagles, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-5)

The Eagles snapped their 10 game home losing streak before the bye against the Redskins, beating them 24-16 in a game that wasn’t really even as close as that final score. The big difference was they had Nick Foles under center. Foles proved his first home start of the season, against the Cowboys, was a fluke. That game is clearly the outlier of his season, as he completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against the Cowboys’ terrible defense there.

On the season, he’s playing out of his mind, completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 9.59 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He’s the real deal. He might not consistently go 162 attempts without throwing an interception and 7 of his 16 touchdowns did come in one game, but he’s proven himself as a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. His coaching situation doesn’t hurt. Like he did with Michael Vick, Chip Kelly is getting the most of Foles.

On one hand, I don’t want to lose more money going against Nick Foles (Washington was my Pick of the Week last week). However, I also don’t want to overcorrect and be all over Nick Foles. Foles could struggle, by his 2013 standards, off of the bye now that he’s officially been anointed the starter and now that he’s had two weeks to hear how good he is. Arizona is also by far the toughest defense he’s faced thus far this season. There’s a big difference between Arizona and Washington, who has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and has since proven themselves as one of the worst overall teams in the NFL. The Eagles’ win over them doesn’t seem as impressive now. There also still might be something to the Eagles’ home struggles.

On paper, the Cardinals appear to be the better team, which is not what this line would suggest. The Cardinals rank 9th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. The Eagles are better than that now that Foles is under center, but I’m still concerned about their defense and I’m concerned about how Foles will handle Arizona’s tough defense, especially now that he’s had two weeks to hear how great he is.

The Cardinals are also in a good spot as they are a distraction free underdog, hosting the Rams next week. Teams are 114-85 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Again, I don’t want to lose anything else betting against Foles and I really wish we were getting more than a field goal with the Cardinals because I think this could be a field goal game, but I’m taking the Cardinals for a no confidence pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Chicago Bears (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-8-1)

The Vikings are favored here for the 3rd time this season. The first two times didn’t go well. They lost straight up at home as touchdown plus favorites over the Browns week 3 and then they got blown out as small home favorites over the Panthers 35-10 during week 6. The Vikings are nowhere near the team they were last year. Adrian Peterson has been much more human this season, exposing their lack of a passing game, while their aging defense has suffered significantly more injuries and is missing the retired Antoine Winfield. They never should have been favored against Carolina and they never should have been favored by over a touchdown over the Browns.

The Vikings are favored here once again. Everyone knows they aren’t good, so we’re not getting the kind of line value with the underdog as we were in those first 2 games, but I still think we’re getting line value. The Vikings are currently 2-8-1. Teams who finish 2-14 or worse are 2-17 ATS as favorites since 2002. The Vikings might not necessarily finish that poorly, but all of their remaining games come against opponents who are currently .500 or better, including the Bears here, so they could. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, which is a differential that is 31st in the NFL, so they’re certainly bad enough to finish with just 2 wins. Either way, I don’t think they deserve to be favored anyone, with the exception of a few. I don’t think the Bears are one of those exceptions.

The Bears have had injuries all over their team, especially on defense. Henry Melton and Charles Tillman are both out for the season, while Lance Briggs remains out indefinitely. Those aren’t their only problems defensively, as age and the departure of defensive coaches Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli have reduced their once proud defense to one of the worst in the NFL. If they can’t force a takeaway, they generally can’t keep their opponents from scoring, as they have forced a league worst 40 punts. It’s tough to rely on takeaways. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, a rate that is increasing as injuries derail them more and more.

Fortunately, their offense is doing enough to make up for it, also moving the chains at a 78% rate. This is in spite of the injury to Jay Cutler. Josh McCown is playing out of his mind right now, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He has a 100.8 QB rating, leads the NFL in QBR, and is ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked quarterback, despite just 3 starts and 2 relief appearances. The Bears don’t deserve to be underdogs here.

The Vikings could also be exhausted off of last week’s tie. They essentially played 5 quarters of football last week. You saw how bad the Packers looked this week against the Lions off of that tie last week. The Vikings aren’t on a short week here, which helps, but teams are now 4-9 ATS off of a tie since 1989. It’s not a huge sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting.

There are reasons this isn’t a bigger play, however. I don’t know how much I trust Josh McCown. All of this is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 73.6, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. I have no doubt that Marc Trestman is a fantastic offensive coach who is making him look better than he is, but I don’t have a ton of faith he can keep this up continually. If he can’t, that would expose their defense.

Also, this kind of feels like a trap line. The public is all over the underdog because they know the Vikings suck. I normally like to stay away from public underdogs. What if this is the week Josh McCown shits the bed? What if Adrian Peterson rushes for 200+ yards on Chicago’s skeleton crew run defense? I still think the Bears are the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Chicago Bears 27 Minnesota Vikings 23 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Minnesota +1

Confidence: Low

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2013 Week 13 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football, 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

WR Nate Burleson (Detroit)

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.0%

Nate Burleson returned from injury last week and didn’t waste any time, catching 7 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown. He might not do that every week, but he’ll be the #2 option in an explosive passing offense from here on out and he’ll see plenty of one on one coverage opposite Calvin Johnson. He’s worth owning in all leagues and could be worth a start this week against Green Bay’s weak secondary.

RB Benny Cunningham (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.7%

Zac Stacy sustained a concussion in a win over the Bears. Cunningham came in and rushed for 109 yards and a score on 13 carries. If Stacy doesn’t play this week, Cunningham will be the starter and feature back. Temper your expectations for him though. He won’t get to face Chicago’s pathetic run defense again. San Francisco has one of the best run defenses in the NFL and held Cunningham to 6 yards on 4 carries in a backup role in their matchup earlier this year and that was without Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith.

RB Dennis Johnson (Houston)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Arian Foster is done for the season and Ben Tate is struggling, getting benched in the middle of a 7 carry, 1 yard performance against the Jaguars for Dennis Johnson, who promptly came in and rushed for 74 yards on 13 carries. Even if Tate does get his starting job back against New England this week, Johnson could still see an increased role and we all saw how bad New England’s run defense is last week. Johnson could also see an increased role over the end of the season as well.

TE Tim Wright (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.6%

Tim Wright has been inconsistent this season, but he’s coming off of an 8 catch for 75 yard performance against Detroit and the Buccaneers have all sorts of injuries at tight end. Wright could be an every down player going forward, which should lead to increased targets for him. He’s their #2 passing options after Vincent Jackson and the surging Mike Glennon seems to love throwing to him. He’s a deep league tight end option.

RB Chris Ogbonnaya (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.5%

Ogbonnaya once again led the Browns in rushing. Granted, that was with 26 yards on 4 carries, but he’s their best all-around running back and a matchup with Jacksonville this week should lead to increased rushing attempts for the Browns. Ogbonnaya is also a good pass catcher with 36 catches on the season and could see 10-15 touches this week. He’s a desperation play and worth picking up in deep leagues.

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