Year: 2013

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12)

This is another one I’m completely split on. On one hand, the Broncos have no distractions upcoming that would distract them from be able to dominate a lesser opponent here and cover the spread. After this one, they just have to go to Oakland. Teams are 62-40 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 3 or more. They’ll actually probably be double digit road favorites in Oakland next week and teams are 77-53 ATS before being double digit road favorites since 1989. On top of that, teams are 94-66 ATS since 2010 as double digit favorites before being double digit favorites.

On the other hand, Houston is in a good spot on a long losing streak. It might sound counterintuitive, but teams are 53-31 ATS since 1989 as underdogs on a losing streak of 8 or more. It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed on a long losing streak like that, as long as they are underdogs. The Texans possibly being embarrassed and overlooked is pretty self-explanatory and they are also undervalued as no one wants to bet on a team on a long losing streak, so the odds makers can boost the spread on them.

We are getting line value this week with the Texans. The Broncos are obviously a very good team. They have the NFL’s best offense, moving the chains at an absurd 81.20% rate, easily the best in the NFL, but their defense is vulnerable, as they allow opponents to chains the chains at an above average 72.86% rate. That differential of 8.34% is still 2nd in the NFL, but the Texans are actually better than their record, coming in 19th. The Texans’ offense has been horrible, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, but their defense is above average, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.27% rate, a differential of -1.70%. That suggests this line should actually be around 7, instead of 10.5.

The Texans are 2-12 because they’ve been killed by a -6 differential in return touchdowns and a -14 turnover differential, two things that tend to be inconsistent, and because they are 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have just four losses by more than a touchdown all season, including just one at home, which is very relevant because this line is at 10.5. They don’t get blown out often. Likewise, the Broncos have just one road victory by double digits, as well as they’ve played this season.

The Texans showed up big-time at home for the Patriots a few weeks ago, almost winning in a 3 point loss. They could do that this week as well, especially now that they have a real quarterback in Matt Schaub back under center, with Case Keenum hurt. Keenum was doing some nice things for the Texans when he first took over as a starter, but eventually opposing defenses were able to expose why he went undrafted. He bottomed out last week, completing 18 of 34 for 169 yards and 2 interceptions in a 25-3 loss to Indianapolis, one of those 4 losses by more than a touchdown on the season.

Schaub isn’t great or anything and he’s not what he used to be, but he’s still a starting caliber quarterback. I don’t think his season numbers (62.4% completion, 6.64 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions) are indicative of the type of quarterback he is, considering they’re so far off of his career numbers. He probably knows he won’t be back in Houston next year, so he’ll take these two games as an opportunity to display himself to quarterback needy teams that could pursue him as a starter in free agency this off-season. He’ll be plenty motivated. At the end of the day, I’m taking Houston and fading the public as long as this line is 10.5, but there’s enough stuff in Denver’s favor where I’m not confident at all. In fact, if this line was 10, I might take Denver. That’s how close it is.

Denver Broncos 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Houston +10.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

I’m completely split on this one. Not only do I not have a convincing argument for either side, but both of these two teams are essentially locked in to their current seed. Kansas City would need Denver to lose to either Houston or Oakland for them to move up (not happening) and they can’t move down, while the Colts would need the Bengals to lose at home to either the Vikings or the Ravens (probably not happening) to move up and they can’t move down.

On top of that, not only are they locked into their current seeds, but they will almost definitely be playing each other in the 1st round in the 4/5 matchup. Sure, these two teams might still have hope about moving up, but, at the same time, their coaching staffs could be realistic and believe it makes more sense to concede this game and stay in their current spot than to let their opponent get a firsthand look at their best stuff. They might not do that, but the fact that either could makes this game so uncertain, especially since we don’t know which team would be to the one to do so.

Moving on to not having a convincing argument for either side, there are two conflicting trends here. On one hand, the Chiefs scored a ridiculous 56 points last week. Teams tend to carry that over into the next week, going 45-29 ATS since 1989 as favorites off of a game in which they scored 48 or more points. On the other hand, this is the last tough game on Indianapolis’ schedule, while Kansas City still has a trip to San Diego coming up. The Colts host the Jaguars next week. Teams are 116-86 as non-divisional road underdogs before divisional home favorites since 2002.

Gun to my head, I’m taking Kansas City. They rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.23% rate, as opposed to 67.12% for their opponents, a differential of 5.11% that ranks 7th in the NFL. The Colts, however, are all the way down at 17th, moving the chains at a 71.86% rate, as opposed to 72.25% for their opponents, a differential of -0.39%. That suggests this line should be closer to 8.5, instead of 7, and that doesn’t even take into account that the Colts are not playing good football of late. They have a point differential of -37 since the bye, 7 games, despite a 22 point win over the lowly Texans last week. The Chiefs also are probably going to get back Justin Houston from injury. He looked like the Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner before he got hurt and they’ve noticeably missed him defensively, so that’ll be a big re-addition. I’m not confident in the Chiefs at all though.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-11) at Dallas Cowboys (7-7)

At first glance, this line doesn’t make any sense. In what universe are the Cowboys 6 points better than the Redskins (3 points for home field advantage)? The Cowboys’ defense not only is the worst defense in the NFL, but it’s approaching historically bad. They only thing they do right is take away the ball, as their 26 takeaways have led to a +11 turnover margin for the Cowboys, but that’s unsustainable, especially since it’s propelled by a ridiculous 70.00% fumble recovery rate.

If the Cowboys can’t take the ball away, they generally can’t stop you. They’ve allowed a league worst 350 first downs, to go with 45 touchdowns allowed (tied for 2nd worst in the NFL), and they’ve only forced 56 punts (tied for worst in the NFL) and 25 field goal attempts (pretty middle of the pack). They are allowing opponents to move the chains at an insane 78.06% rate. For comparison’s sake, if an offense were to be moving the chains at that rate, it would be 2nd in the NFL, behind only Denver. Kirk Cousins will be the 4th straight backup quarterback the Cowboys have faced, but they’ve allowed the last 3 (Matt McGloin, Josh McCown, and Matt Flynn), to complete 71 of 105 (67.6%) for 902 yards (8.59 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Why can’t Kirk Cousins shred them as well?

Washington’s defense isn’t much better. In fact, they’re the only team in the NFL that has surrendered more offensive touchdowns than the Cowboys. Their opponents move the chains at a 75.88% rate, which is better than Dallas, but hardly something to be proud of. The Cowboys have an explosive offense that can shred that defense, as the move the chains at a 74.38% rate, but the Redskins’ offense is solid as well, moving the chains at a 71.40% rate. Kirk Cousins is a downgrade from Robert Griffin, but not a significant one and they can still run the ball well with Alfred Morris.

This game definitely has the looks of a shootout, but we’re getting line value with the Redskins. The Cowboys’ rate of moving the chains differential of -3.69% ranks 24th in the NFL, while the Redskins’ differential of -4.48% comes in 26th. That suggests this line should be closer to Washington being favored by 2, instead of underdogs of 3. You can’t follow that blindly and, contrary to popular believe, Robert Griffin not being out there does hurt them (oh Kirk Cousins shredded Atlanta? congratulations), but I think there’s definitely something to the Cowboys not deserving to be favored by this much. I think the only team in the NFL they deserve to be favored by a field goal on the road against is Jacksonville.

In spite of that, the public is all over Dallas and I love to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. It makes sense here. The Redskins have a trend working in their favor as well. For one, teams on a losing streak of 6 or more are 41-24 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by a touchdown or less. Teams on long losing streaks tend to be undervalued because no one wants to bet on them, but some teams on long losing streaks are teams that quit. This isolates out those teams because, if they recently played a close game, they’re probably still fighting. On top of that, Tony Romo’s 12-25 ATS record in week 13 or later is worth noting. It’s not all on him, but this team does tend to collapse towards the end of the season, for whatever reason.

On the other hand, however, there are plenty of things working for the Cowboys. They’re in the better spot here from a pure trends situation. While they will be favorites again next week, the Redskins will be underdogs again, as they head to New York to face the Giants. Teams are 39-22 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites, while teams are 26-40 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs.

However, both of those trends stem from the fact that teams that will be favorites again don’t usually have a distraction game on the horizon, while teams that will be underdogs again usually do. I don’t think that applies here. The Cowboys will be playing for the division next week against Philadelphia so, while they will be favorites, it doesn’t make that won’t be a distraction. Sure, they need to win here to make sure that game is even meaningful, but it’s the tougher of the Cowboys’ two games, so they could actually be caught looking forward to it. Washington, meanwhile, probably actually cares more about this one that they do about a 5-9 Giants team that isn’t playoff bound.

Still, there is one trend that applies to this situation that makes sense. Road favorites are 45-25 ATS off of a close (between 1-3 points) home loss as favorites of more than 3 points. Teams in that situation tend to be embarrassed about such a close home upset loss and, as long as the odds makers still believe in them enough to make them road favorites, they tend to redeem themselves the following week. The Cowboys may or may not deserve to be road favorites, but it’s worth noting. Also worth noting is that the NFC East is 45-26 ATS on the road in divisional games. Those two things and the fact that I don’t totally trust Kirk Cousins scare me off of Washington, but they should still be the right side, as long as we’re getting field goal protection.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: Washington +3

 

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-10) at San Diego Chargers (7-7)

Both of these teams are in bad spots this week and both of those have to do with Denver. Oakland has to deal with Denver next week so they might not be completely focused for the Chargers here, at least not enough to keep it close. Teams are 37-67 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012, which the Raiders almost certainly will be next week. Going off of that, the Raiders will probably be double digit home underdogs next week. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs and teams are 16-40 ATS since 2002 before being double digit home underdogs, including 3-14 ATS before being divisional double digit home underdogs. Furthermore, teams are 22-45 ATS in their first of two or more straight games as double digit underdogs since 2002. The Raiders are in no position to be keeping this one close and covering this spread this week.

However, the Chargers are in a bad spot as well after last week’s win in Denver. Teams are 35-56 ATS since 2002 after a win as road underdogs of 10 or more. The Chargers got an emotional upset victory last week and that could cause a hangover effect this week, especially against such a lowly opponent. That win also caused a huge line movement as this line went from 7.5 to 10 in the span of a week.

That being said, the Chargers aren’t in as bad of a spot as the Raiders are and they’ve had extra rest to prepare for this game, as it was on a Thursday Night, so that could counteract some of the hangover effect. On top of that, while the line movement did cost us some line value with the Chargers, we’re still getting value with them and not the Raiders, even at 10. The Chargers are a legitimately very solid team, while the Raiders are one of the worst in the NFL.

The Chargers move the chains at a 78.71% rate, as opposed to 76.24% for their opponents, a differential of 2.71% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 30th, moving the chains at a 67.49% rate, as opposed to 73.56% for their opponents, a differential of -6.08. That suggests this line should actually be around 11.5. I’m not that confident in the Chargers because we could see a letdown game from them, but they should be the right side against a bottom-5 team that has a bigger game next week. The Chargers are also my Survivor Pick of the week.

San Diego Chargers 34 Oakland Raiders 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: San Diego -10

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)

Since 1989, there have been 25 instances of a team winning by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. The Rams have done that 3 times this season alone. Teams are 6-19 ATS off of that type of win as that’s clearly an unsustainable way to win games and it leads to artificially inflated lines and artificially overconfident teams. The Rams didn’t win in that manner last week, but only because of some garbage time touchdowns. The Rams led 27-3 going into the 4th quarter in what was eventually a 27-16 game.

The Rams still won by 11 despite losing the first down battle by 13. Teams that lose the first down battle by 11 or more and still win by 11 or more are 13-24 ATS the following week. I realize those are very artificial boundaries, but so is the original 6-19 ATS trend. The point I’m trying to prove is that winning a game by a large margin despite losing the first down battle by a large margin is an unsustainable way to win and it leads to teams that are overconfident and lines that are overinflated. For example, this line was at 3 a week ago and now it’s at 5.5. That’s a huge line movement, crossing over the key numbers of 3 and 4, and it’s the result of a fluky St. Louis victory.

Because 4 of their 6 wins have come in games in which they won by large margins despite losing the first down battle by large margins, the Rams are not nearly as good as their record. Despite their 6-8 record, they rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 69.98% rate, as opposed to 74.02% for their opponents, a differential of -4.04%. The Buccaneers aren’t in good shape either, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 66.33% rate, as opposed to 72.21% rate for their opponents, a differential of -5.88%. They’ve been buoyed by an unsustainable +11 margins. However, this line is still a little too big, as I have it calculated at 5, using rate of moving the chains differential. This line is currently at 5.5. It’s not a lot, but it’s something.

That being said, I can’t be confident in either side at all considering both have much more important games next week. The Buccaneers travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints, while the Rams travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, which both teams almost certainly will be next week. I’m going to take the points to fade the public and because the way the Rams have been blowing teams out is unsustainable, but I’m not confident at all.

St. Louis Rams 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +5.5

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9)

Believe or not, the Bills have actually been very good at home. It doesn’t show in their home record (3-4), but they are 5-2 ATS at home, 5-1 ATS if you ignore what was essentially a neutral site game in Toronto and 5-1 ATS at home dogs. Given that they’ve been underdogs in all 6 of their games in Buffalo, their 3-3 record there seems a lot better. They’ve had a very tough schedule, facing the Patriots, Panthers, Chiefs, Bengals, four likely playoff teams who currently all have 9-5 or better records, the Ravens, another possible playoff team who is currently 8-6, and the Jets. The Jets were the easiest team they’ve faced at home and the Bills won that game by 20.

Of those 3 losses, only one came by more than a field goal and that was the game in which Jeff Tuel started against Kansas City, a 10 point loss in which the Chiefs scored 14 points off of return touchdowns. Why is everyone so sure the Dolphins will beat them by more than a field goal? The public is all over Miami as 3 point favorites and I love fading heavy public leans whenever it makes sense, as the odds makers always make money in the long run. It certainly makes sense here.

EJ Manuel is out for this one, but I don’t think Thad Lewis is a serious downgrade or anything. In fact, the game in which the Bills took the Bengals to overtime in Buffalo was started by Thad Lewis. He also beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this season. EJ Manuel has more long-term upside, but for this season, I think Thad Lewis is at least a comparable quarterback, if not a better quarterback. EJ Manuel actually has a lower QB rating on the season than Lewis, completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, a QB rating of 77.7. Thad Lewis, meanwhile, is completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 6.33 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, a QB rating of 80.2.

Besides, it’s not like offense is the reason why Buffalo has had any success this season. They move the chains at a 66.21% rate, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their defense, however, has been incredible, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.34% rate. Their defensive line has especially been good (league leading 49 sacks), which is going to be trouble for the Dolphins, whose weakness is their offensive line (league leading 51 sacks allowed). Ryan Tannehill was under pressure on 16 of 39 dropbacks in their last matchup (41.0%) and Tannehill completed passes on just 5 of those dropbacks, a big part of the reason why the Bills were able to prevail.

That rate of moving the chains differential of -2.13% is 21st in the NFL. The Dolphins are actually 22nd, moving the chains at a 68.35% rate, as opposed to 70.95% for their opponents, a differential of -2.60%. That actually suggests the Bills should be favored by 3.5 points. Now, you can’t just follow that blindly. I don’t think the Bills and Dolphins are exactly comparable teams nor do I think the Bills are a better team than the Dolphins. The Dolphins are playing better football of late. However, it’s not something you can ignore. The Bills are better than their record and the Dolphins are better than their record. DVOA backs this up as the Dolphins rank 18th, while the Bills rank 23rd. The Dolphins don’t deserve to be 3 point favorites here, even before you take into account the Bills’ home dominance.

There are a couple of reasons why the Bills aren’t a bigger play. For one, the Bills are in a bad spot as they have to face the Patriots next week in New England, which could be a distraction for them. Teams are 26-40 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. The Dolphins, meanwhile, don’t really have an upcoming distraction as they face the Jets next week in Miami. Teams are 39-22 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Still, there’s enough here for me to be fairly confident in the Bills, as long as we’re getting field goal protection.

Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 97 of 156 (62.2%) for 1356 yards (8.69 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns on 39 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 21.57 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 23-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.

That’s certainly the case here against a 4-10 Atlanta team, against whom they are favored by 12. Atlanta isn’t in a good spot here as they have to face Carolina next week in Atlanta. They won’t sleepwalk through this nationally televised 2012 NFC Championship rematch, but with such a big game coming up next week as well, they could easily not be as focused as they need to be to keep this one close. Teams are 37-67 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more.

Also working against the Falcons is the fact that this is a night game on the West Coast against a West Coast opponent. While this game will run from 8:30 to about 11:30 or 12:00 on the Falcons’ internal clocks, it’ll run from 5:30 to 8:30 or 9:00 on the 49ers’ internal clock. While the Falcons’ will be internally winding down energy wise in the 2nd half, the 49ers will still be going. Sounds crazy? Well maybe a little, but West Coast teams are 48-20 ATS at night at home against East Coast teams since 1989 so there definitely seems to be something to this.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because this line is a little big. The 49ers are moving the chains at a 69.90% rate, as opposed to 66.25% for their opponents, a differential of 3.65% that is 8th in the NFL. The Falcons, meanwhile, move the chains at a 73.38% rate, as opposed to 75.17% for their opponents, a differential of -1.79% that ranks 20th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 8.5, instead of 12, which is a big difference. Still, the 49ers’ average margin of victory against teams with losing records (21.57), the Falcons having to face the Panthers next week, and the time zone aspect are enough for me to be pretty confident in the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Atlanta Falcons 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco -12

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Giants, Lions, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-9) at Detroit Lions (7-7)

In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past week, the Lions have a turnover problem. Despite their 7-7 record, the Lions have a turnover margin of -13, which is 4th worst in the NFL and their 31 turnovers are the 2nd most in the NFL. The narrative around this has ranged from everything from fire Jim Schwartz (because, apparently, that’s his fault), to bench Matt Stafford for Shaun Hill (because, apparently, a 3.0% interception rate is bad), to the Lions don’t value the ball (whatever that means).

I look at this a different way. I look at them as a team that could be very dominant if they could ever have even just a neutral turnover margin. Even in last week’s debacle of a loss to the Ravens, they were a missed 61-yard field goal away from winning despite a -2 turnover margin (the 3rd turnover never would have been committed if Tucker’s field goal was a yard shorter). Teams that lose the turnover margin by 2 win just about 17.7% of the time. That would have been an accomplishment.

Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent and very easy to correct on both a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Even these Lions were +1 in turnovers through 9 games (6-3), before having a -14 turnover margin in the past 5 games (1-4). It’s the same team. Did they suddenly forget about the value of the ball? Teams that have a turnover margin of +4 and teams that have a turnover margin of -4 have an average turnover margin of about +0.0 the following week. The same thing is essentially the same for teams with -5 and +5 turnover margins, -3 and +3 turnover margins, etc. Past turnover margins don’t seem to be a good predictor of future turnover margins. On top of that, part of the Lions’ poor turnover margin has to do with their mere 40.48% rate of recovering fumbles. That type of thing doesn’t continue. Covering fumbles isn’t a skill.

If none of these numbers convince you that we should assume net-zero turnovers for the Lions this week, how about this: the Lions are playing the Giants this week. The Giants. The Giants make the Lions look like a careful football team, turning the ball over 39 times on the season, most in the NFL, giving them a -17 turnover margin that is the 2nd worst in the NFL. The same thing applies for the Giants: we should assume net-zero turnovers for them going forward because of how inconsistent turnovers are, but if we’re assuming net-zero turnovers, the Lions have the clear advantage this week.

The Lions are moving the chains at a 74.52% rate, as opposed to 68.82% for their opponents, a differential of 5.70% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, are 28th, moving the chains at a 66.11% rate, as opposed to 71.40% for their opponents, a differential of -5.29%. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions, as the line should be around 13.5, instead of 9.5, where it is right now.

The Lions are also in a good spot, with no real distractions on the horizon, as they go to Minnesota next week. Teams are 51-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. On top of that, teams are 62-40 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, as the Lions currently are expected to be next week. They have nothing keeping them from dominating an inferior opponent.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Giants are in a few good spots. They too have no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against the Redskins up next. Teams are 116-86 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. The Giants historically also do very well as road underdogs, at least in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, dating back to 2004. They are 34-20 ATS as road underdogs since then.

On top of that, they’re in a good spot coming off of a home shutout and back-to-back blowout losses. Teams are 38-21 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more points and 39-25 ATS off of a home game in which they didn’t score. It might seem counterintuitive, but teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in those situations.

I don’t think they’re undervalued here because we’re still getting line value with the Lions, but if the Giants were playing anyone else this week or if the Lions had won last week, we would have significant line movement against the Giants after last week. Even still, this line has shifted from 7.5 to 9 in the past week. That doesn’t cross any key numbers, but it’s still worth noting. As for overlooked and embarrassed, those are self-explanatory. Those could both easily be true this week. Even still, I do like the Lions this week.

Detroit Lions 27 New York Giants 10

Pick against spread: Detroit -9

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (12-2)

Seattle at home is pretty much an auto-bet. They’ve been incredible at home over the past few years. Since 2007, they are 38-17 ATS at home, including 22-9 ATS as home favorites, and 11-3 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 11-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 14 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 18.57 points per game.

The Cardinals are a solid football team, better than average in fact. They move the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 69.57% for their opponents, a differential of 2.45% that ranks 11th in the NFL. The Seahawks are obviously very good as well, moving the chains at a 73.77% rate, as opposed to 67.41% for their opponents, a differential of 6.36% that ranks 4th in the NFL. Using those, we can calculate the line at about 7 (the differences between the differentials plus 3 for home field).

However, that assumes that Seattle has a normal home field advantage, which they don’t. If anything, their home field advantage should be worth about 6 points. Since 2007, they outscore opponents by about 7.64 points per game at home by about 1.26 points per game in general. The difference between Seattle being at home and being at a neutral field in a sense is about 6, 6.5 points. If we use that for home field advantage, we get that this line should be around 10 or 10.5, which is exactly where it is.

Arizona also isn’t a very good road team. While they are 6-1 at home, including wins over Detroit, Carolina, and Indianapolis, on the road, they’ve lost in St. Louis, Philadelphia, got blown out in San Francisco and New Orleans, and only won by a field goal over Tampa Bay and Tennessee. The only road win by more than a field goal they have came against Jacksonville, who is probably the worst team in the NFL. If the Cardinals lost by double digits in San Francisco and New Orleans, why wouldn’t they lose by double digits in Seattle? Even if we assume that playing in the Superdome is comparable to playing in Seattle, the Cardinals lost by 24 in New Orleans and I think playing in Seattle is even harder, at least this year.

The Seahawks are also in a couple of excellent spots as well. They have no upcoming distractions on the schedule as they just have to host the Rams next week. Teams are 42-25 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more before being home favorites of 10 or more, which they almost definitely will be for the Rams next week, given that they are for a superior Cardinals team. On top of that, they are riding quite a hot streak right now after shutting out the Giants at home last week. Tends tend to ride that into the next week, going 41-22 ATS since 1989 after shutting out a team on the road. I like Seattle a good deal this week.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Titans sit at 5-9 and need to win out to finish better than 6-10 so it’s something to consider, but this isn’t like a normal six and six situation. For one, this line isn’t 6 points everywhere. In fact, in the majority of places, it’s still at 5.5. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t climb to 6 and that doesn’t mean the six and six trend is something to completely ignore, but it’s worth noting this isn’t a true six and six situation. Two, the Titans could actually win out fairly easily. They will be favored by more than a field goal in each of their final two games, as they have a home game against the Texans after this one.  Even if this line does move all the way up to 6, it might not necessarily be a six and six situation.

The Titans are better than their 5-9 record would suggest. They have a point differential of just -29 and rank 19th in weighted DVOA. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move them at a 71.73% rate, as opposed to 72.25% for their opponents, both of which are pretty decent. Their differential of -0.52% is 18th in the NFL. They’re more talented than most teams that fit the six and six trend. That trend is based off the premise that some teams should not be big favorites against anyone. I don’t think the Titans are one of those teams.

Given that, I actually like the Titans a good deal this week. While the Titans are better than their record, the Jaguars are worse than their record, which is hard to do when you’re 4-10. However, that 4-10 record is buoyed by a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Nine of their 10 losses have come by double digits and all 10 have come by at least a touchdown, which is relevant considering this line is still below a touchdown. Going off of that, over the past 2 seasons, in 15 home games, the Jaguars are just 2-13 and all 13 of those losses by come by more than a touchdown.

As a result of their many blowout losses this season, the Jaguars have easily the league’s worst point differential at -178. Only Washington at -129 is even close. They also rank dead last in DVOA, though Oakland does rank behind them in weighted DVOA. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 63.77% rate, as opposed to 75.70% for their opponents. Not only is that -11.93% differential the worst in the NFL, but no other team has a differential worse than -6.23% (the NY Jets).

Now they’re without top receiver Cecil Shorts and may also be without Maurice Jones-Drew again. Not only do the Titans deserve to be big favorites here, even on the road, but I think we’re actually getting line value with them. This line should be bigger, somewhere around 8.5. In spite of that, the public is actually all over the underdog. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when the public is on the underdog. Whenever the public thinks one team is going to win and the odds makers think another team is going to win, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. The public was all over the Jaguars as an underdog last week. How’d that work out?

On top of that, Tennessee is also in a very good spot. I mentioned they have Houston next week, so they have no distractions that would prevent them from dominating a significantly inferior opponent. Teams are 39-22 ATS since 2002 as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has to go to Indianapolis next week, which will be a bigger game for them than this one. Teams are 26-40 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. The Titans will also almost definitely be double digit underdogs in Indianapolis next week. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. I like Tennessee a good deal this week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Tennessee -5.5

Confidence: Medium

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