Year: 2013

St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 20 (-8)

Record: 1-3

The Rams keep adding talent, but they never seem to get any better. Their retooled offensive line isn’t playing up to expectations. Rodger Saffold is out, while veteran Scott Wells has been awful at center. Chris Williams continues to prove he’s not a starting caliber player, while even Jake Long has not been the franchise left tackle they thought they were getting. Rookie Tavon Austin, who was supposed to invigorate Bradford’s receiving corps, has looked like, well a rookie, while Jared Cook has been pretty hit or miss. Defensively, Chris Long and James Laurinaitis, who have been signed to long extensions recently, aren’t living up to their salaries. The same is true of Cortland Finnegan, who was signed to a 50 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s suddenly morphed into the worst cornerback in the NFL, allowing 16 of 19 for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns before getting “hurt” against the 49ers. With another two 1st round picks this year, the Rams have a lot of decisions to make on which highly paid veterans to dump and which youngsters to give up on.

Week 4 Studs

None

Week 4 Duds

QB Sam Bradford

RB Daryl Richardson

C Scott Wells

FS Rodney McLeod

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Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 30 (+1)

Record: 1-3

I don’t really have anything interesting to say this week about the Vikings, who went to the land of the redcoats this week for a game of 0-3 teams between them and the Steelers. Instead I’ll talk about how stupid expansion to London would be. The NFL is so much less foreign than leagues like the NBA, the MLB, or the NHL and yet none of those leagues have tried teams abroad (unless, you count Canada). There’s a reason for that. The grueling schedule of the NFL doesn’t help matters.

Week 4 Studs

RG Brandon Fusco

DT Fred Davis

Week 4 Duds

QB Matt Cassel

FB Jerome Felton

LE Brian Robison

MLB Erin Henderson

CB Josh Robinson

FS Harrison Smith

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (-2)

Record: 0-4

This Josh Freeman situation gets weirder and weirder every week. Multiple people in the know have referred to “off the field issues” with Freeman that they refuse to get into for personal reasons (it’s not drugs, he passed a numerous amount of tests since entering the NFL). His privacy should be respected, but whatever they are, I’m giving the Buccaneers the benefit of the doubt with how they are handling the situation, keeping Freeman away from the team. He’s already the 3rd string quarterback and will likely be granted his release sometime in the next week or so, after the Buccaneers make a futile attempt to trade him. Mike Glennon is the present for the Buccaneers now and has 12 more games to prove he’s the future. A likely combination of struggles on the field, a top-5 pick, and Schiano getting canned probably loses Glennon his job for 2014.

Week 4 Studs

DT Gerald McCoy

Week 4 Duds

QB Mike Glennon

RB Doug Martin

RG Davin Joseph

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 31

Record: 1-3

If it wasn’t already clear, Matt Flynn’s performance against the Redskins proves the Raiders made the correct choice going with Terrelle Pryor over Flynn. It isn’t saying a ton, but Pryor is already one of the top-5 players on this roster, while Flynn looked like a quarterback who deserved to go in the 7th round back in 2008, leading the Raiders to a pathetic 14 points at home against an awful Washington defense. The Raiders should have a top-5 pick this season, but they shouldn’t go quarterback. Pryor deserves another chance going into the contract year of his rookie deal and the Raiders have plenty of other needs. Jadeveon Clowney would look awfully nice on that defensive line, assuming they can get him.

Week 4 Studs

RB Rashad Jennings

LE Jack Crawford

Week 4 Duds

QB Matt Ryan

DT Vance Walker

CB Tracy Porter

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32

Record 0-4

The Jaguars have been so bad through 4 games that I don’t think the word horrendous is even strong enough. They’ve been outscored 129 to 31 and even that figure is inflated by garbage time. If the Seahawks, against whom they scored 17 of their 31 points, hadn’t taken their starters out in the 3rd quarter, their differential would be even worse. They move the chains on just 58% of downs, as opposed to 78% from their opponents, a -20% differential. Only the Giants, -15%, as even close to how bad they are, and 3rd worst is Tampa Bay at -8%. Fortunately, I don’t think it’s possible to be THIS bad for the entirety of the season. This is just an especially brutal stretch for this team and getting Justin Blackmon back this week will help. It doesn’t mean they’ll win more than a game or two, but they should cover at least a few spreads this season, possibly starting with a ridiculous 12 point spread in St. Louis this week.

Week 4 Studs

RE Jeremy Mincey

CB Will Blackmon

Week 4 Duds

LG Will Rackley

FS Josh Evans

SS John Cyprien

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Arizona Cardinals trade OT Levi Brown to the Pittsburgh Steelers

stevenlourie Cardinals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Trade for Steelers: The Steelers clearly need left tackle help. 2012 2nd round pick Mike Adams is bombing in his first chance as a full-time starter. Only Atlanta’s tackles, Sam Baker and Lamar Holmes, have graded out worse than Adams on ProFootballFocus this season. However, Brown isn’t a significant upgrade. He currently ranks just 10 spots higher than Adams, 60th out of 72, and the 2007 5th overall pick has never resembled an NFL caliber left tackle.

Before missing the entirety of the 2012 season with injury, Brown was ProFootballFocus’ 57th ranked offensive tackle (out of 76) in 2011, 78th ranked offensive tackles (out of 78) in 2010, and 72nd ranked offensive tackle (out of 77) in 2009. He’s also very overpaid, making 4.75 million this season and 6 million in an age 30 season in 2014, though I suppose the Steelers could cut him without penalty after the season. Still, the last thing the Steelers need is another overpaid veteran. Though they’re only 2 games out of the AFC North lead, at 0-4, they are in no position to be making this type of move.

Grade: C

Trade for Cardinals: I thought the Cardinals should have cut Brown before the season because he simply wasn’t worth his salary so getting anything for him is a win, even a late round pick as the Cardinals will reportedly receive. The Cardinals are technically still in it at 2-2, but I doubt they’ll miss Brown that much. Intriguing youngsters Bradley Sowell, Nate Potter, and Bobbie Massie all have more upside than him at a cheaper rate. Sowell will get the first crack at the left tackle job with Brown gone and it’s going to be hard for him to be much worse than Brown.

Grade: A

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Jacksonville Jaguars trade OT Eugene Monroe to the Baltimore Ravens

stevenlourie Jaguars, Ravens, Uncategorized

Trade for Jaguars: The Jaguars just sold a franchise left tackle for pennies on the dollar (multiple 3rd day picks). Ordinarily, that’s an awful deal, but Monroe was heading into free agency this off-season and the Jaguars are so awful. It’s totally believable that they knew they wouldn’t be able to re-sign him after the season and it’s not like they’re doing anything this year. Luke Joeckel, the 2nd overall pick, looks to be their left tackle of the future. Still, this is barely more than they would have gotten in compensatory picks if they had lost him in free agency and it’s a big loss for the fan base. The Joeckel pick looks like just a horizontal move at this point.

Grade: C

Trade for Ravens: This is absolute steal for the Ravens. Monroe doesn’t get a lot of attention in Jacksonville, but he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and a huge upgrade over Bryant McKinnie, both short-term and, if they want him, long-term. He was ProFootballFocus’ 15th ranked offensive tackle in 2012 and 6th ranked offensive tackle in 2011. He and right tackle Michael Oher will be free agents this off-season, so the Ravens will have some decisions to make, but they’re competitive enough now to be buyers, especially at such a cheap price.

Grade: A

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Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Rams, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)

The Jaguars are +12 here in St. Louis. No one is THAT bad right? Well, so far, the Jaguars have been THAT bad. They have been beyond horrendous offensively, converting just 58% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs. That means on 42% of their 1st and 10s, they didn’t move the chains. Defensively, they aren’t good either, but they aren’t horrendous, surrendering a subsequent set of first downs 78% of the time.

However, I don’t expect the Jaguars to be THAT bad all season. They’re having a horrendous stretch right now, but I don’t think they’ll be all-time bad for the entirety of the season. Some of it will be randomness and the fact that no one is this bad forever. Some of it will be the return of Justin Blackmon, who returns this week from a 4 game suspension and could have a Josh Gordon-esque impact on this offense. They won’t be a good offense by any stretch of the imagination, but that 58% number won’t be THAT terrible all season.

Given that, I don’t think they really deserve to be 12 point underdogs here. The Rams aren’t very good at all either. They are moving the chains on 69% of opportunities, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. In terms of differential, they are 29th in the NFL. Their retooled offensive line isn’t playing up to expectations. Rodger Saffold is out, while veteran Scott Wells has been awful at center. Chris Williams continues to prove he’s not a starting caliber player, while even Jake Long has not been the franchise left tackle they thought they were getting.

Rookie Tavon Austin, who was supposed to invigorate Bradford’s receiving corps, has looked like, well a rookie, while Jared Cook has been pretty hit or miss. Defensively, Chris Long and James Laurinaitis, who have been signed to long extensions recently, aren’t living up to their salaries. The same is true of Cortland Finnegan, who was signed to a 50 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s suddenly morphed into the worst cornerback in the NFL, allowing 16 of 19 for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns before getting “hurt” against the 49ers.

They don’t deserve to be 12 point favorites over anyone. One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Rams could easily go 6-10 or worse after a 1-3 start, given how they’ve been playing. I’m a little wary of using this to pick the Jaguars since I did it against the Raiders and it backfired, but this line is double what that line was. There’s a lot of room to work with and I don’t think the Jaguars will be quite as bad this week as they’ve been thus far this season, as I mentioned earlier. Teams always cover at least 3 or 4 times per season, no matter how bad they are. This could easily be one of those times for the Jaguars.

Other trends favor the Jaguars as well. Since 2002, teams are 36-18 ATS off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in this situation. Both teams are actually in that situation this week, but I don’t think the Rams are being undervalued and I highly doubt they’ll be overlooked given how bad the Jaguars are. Going off of that, teams are just 2-11 ATS since 1989 as 10+ point favorites off of 3+ straight losses. It’s a limited sample size, but the fact that this situation happens so rarely is important in of itself. This is an overly inflated spread. I don’t want to put too much confidence in Jacksonville, but they should be the right side.

St. Louis Rams 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +12

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-0) at Chicago Bears (3-1)

The Saints and Dolphins both went into Monday Night’s game at 3-0, after going 7-9 last season, but at the end of the day, it was the Saints who proved they were for real, while the Dolphins looked like a team that was never very good to begin with. The Saints obviously dominated in a 21 point win and it’s not like the Dolphins were some scrubs. They’re a decent football team. Right now, I think the Saints are the 3rd best team in the NFL and could compete with Seattle or Denver on a neutral field.

They are 3rd in the NFL in terms of converting 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of first downs, converting on 81%. A strong offense is nothing new in New Orleans. Even with Sean Payton gone last year, the Saints were 3rd in the NFL in points scored behind only the Patriots and Broncos. However, they are also playing very well on defense, allowing opponents to convert 1st and 10 on just 66% of chances, 3rd best in the NFL. This is a huge change from last year, when they allowed the 2nd most points per game in the league and surrendered the most yards in NFL history.

Rob Ryan has really turned things around as the Saints have held all 4 of their opponents to 17 points or fewer, something they did just 3 times all last season. Junior Galette and Cameron Jordan have broken out as among the best players in the NFL at their respective positions in their new 3-4 defense, with Jordan even playing like an All-Pro. As a result, they are +15% in differential in terms of how often they are converting for a subsequent set of downs, as opposed to how often their opponents are. That’s the best in the NFL through 4 games. The Saints also should be able to continue their momentum from their huge Monday Night Football win into this week. Since 2002, teams are 29-13 ATS off Monday Night Football wins of 21 points or more.

The Bears, meanwhile, are 3-1, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their defense is not playing nearly as well as it did last season, forcing just 12 punts all season. Only Philadelphia has forced fewer among teams who have played all 4 games. Yes, they’ve forced 14 takeaways, but they can’t continue relying on forcing takeaways to stop drives. They won’t recover 2 out of every 3 of their opponent’s fumbles all season. They didn’t recover fumbles at the same rate against Detroit and lost the turnover battle, surrendering 40 points in the process, the first time the Bears had surrendered 40+ points in a game since 2009.

I think they miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli defensively, while over 30 veterans Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs are underachieving. As a result, they are allowing opponents to convert for a subsequent set of first downs 75% of the time, right in the middle of the pack. They actually have a negative differential in this aspect, converting about 73% of the time offensively. This would be a Pick of the Week if I trusted the Saints more on the road, but I feel like this line should be at least -3 favor of New Orleans. It’s really an elite team versus a more pedestrian/slightly above average team and the Saints 20-23 ATS road record since 2008 isn’t terrible. This could be a statement road win for the Saints.

New Orleans Saints 24 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans PK

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Carolina was one of my biggest, if not my biggest sleeper coming into the season. I had them winning 12 games and the NFC South. They finished last season playing very good defense, allowing 21.2 points per game in the final 12 games of last season after they moved Luke Kuechly to the middle linebacker, despite facing top-16 offenses in 8 of those 12 games. They looked poised to continue that into 2013, after adding Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short in the 1st and 2nd round pick of the draft. Offensively, they finished last season scoring 26.0 points per game after Cam Newton put a slow start to his sophomore year behind him. That wasn’t anything ridiculous for them because they scored 25.4 points per game in 2011. In Newton’s 3rd year in the league, he looked poised to have the best year of his career.

In the first 2 games of the season, that looked pretty wrong. The defense was excellent, possibly even better than expected as Star Lotulelei looked like a legitimate Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. However, their offense was bogged down by poor game plans put together by Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula, who was promoted from quarterbacks coach after Rob Chudzinski left for Cleveland. They also struggled to close games later, something that had plagued them since 2011, Head Coach Ron Rivera’s 1st season with the team. That pushed them to 2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less under Rivera. That’s something that usually evens out in the long run, but it was fair to wonder if the Panthers would ever be able to close out games well under Ron Rivera.

Week 3, however, they destroyed the Giants 38-0 and looked like the team I expected them to be before the season. Yes, the Giants aren’t very good, but beating a team by 38 points, no matter who they are, is an incredibly impressive accomplishment. In that game, their offensive game plan was much better, utilizing more zone runs and shots downfield, which is how you best utilize Cam Newton.

Ron Rivera actually was less conservative with his decision making, as well. They didn’t have to close things out and that could still be a weakness, but I feel a lot better around them going forward and their ability to blow out opponents. They are moving the ball very well, converting 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs 79% of the time, while allowing opponents to do so just 72% of the time, a +7% differential they is actually 7th in the NFL.

They also benefitted from having a bye last week. Road favorites, like the Panthers are here, tend to dominate off of a bye. Teams are 44-17 ATS in this situation since 2002. It makes sene. Good teams tend to be very focused off of a bye and this allows them to play up to their talent level. The bye should be very good for the Panthers for that reason. They certainly have the talent to be favored here in Arizona and could easily blow them out. I’m very confident they cover a very short line here.

Carolina Panthers 27 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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