Year: 2013

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

Ordinarily, I don’t like laying 19 points, but in this case, I think this line is completely justified, if not too low. The Seahawks aren’t quite as good at home as their 29-3 win over the 49ers would suggest. If you played that game 100 games, the average margin of victory would not be 26, but it would probably be at least 7-10, which is impressive in of itself against a very high quality team like the 49ers. They’ve won all 9 of their home games over the last 2 seasons and done so by an average score of 30-11.

Considering their average margin of victory has been 19, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be favored by 19 over a Jacksonville team that looks like clearly the worst team in the NFL. After essentially being shutout at home by the Chiefs week 1 (their 2 points came on a safety by the defense), they lost 19-9 in Oakland, in a game that was 19-3 before garbage time. They barely had over 100 yards of total offense before garbage time against a defense that came into the season as one of the worst in the NFL. Overall on the season, they’ve converted 55.1% of first and 10s for a subsequent first, 15.1% less than their opponents have, the worst disparity in the NFL. Before garbage time in Oakland, they actually had more punts than first downs. They’re going to have a very hard time moving the ball against the Seahawks.

If anything the Seahawks are playing better of late. They’ve won 10 of their last 12 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 195 of 297 (65.7%) for 2686 yards (9.0 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.7 points per game over last 12 games overall, including 25.2 points per game at home.

The Seahawks home dominance is nothing new though. Going back to 2007, they are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.42 points per game, and 33-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.71 points per game. They are 35-15 ATS at home in that span. They’re even better as big home favorites, going 9-3 ATS as touchdown favorites over that time span, including 5-1 ATS as 10+ point favorites. I have no problem laying the 19 here. This is going to be a bloodbath. The Seahawks are also my survivor pick.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle -19

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-1)

The 49ers lost in Seattle last week 29-3, but there’s no shame at all losing to the Seahawks in Seattle. Dating back to the start of last season, the Seahawks have won all 9 home games by an average score of 30-11. They should be able to bounce back this week, as they have every time after a loss since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season. The 49ers are 5-2 ATS off a loss in that time span, 7-2 ATS if you include week 1 games (games after a season ending playoff loss).

If you look closer, that’s even more impressive as those two non-covers included a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out. They’ve won those 7 games by an average margin of about 17 points per game, 23-6. They should be as motivated as they can be this week coming off of a loss and they might also be a little overlooked and undervalued after what happened this week.

The Colts, meanwhile, have had a lot of trouble against playoff caliber opponents over the past 2 seasons. Last year, they played 7 games against teams who finished .500 or better. They went 3-4 in those games, which isn’t awful, but those wins came by 3, 3, and 12, while the losses came by 20, 35, 12, and 15. They went as good as their 11-5 record would have suggested last season, because of all of those blowout losses (plus a 35-9 loss to the freaking Jets!) and because they had 7 wins by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 or fewer games. They were especially bad on the road last season, going 4-5 on the road with a point differential of -76 and an opponent’s overall record of 64-80.

They haven’t really looked any better this season, barely beating the Raiders at home and then losing to the Dolphins at home, a game in which they lost one of their only good offensive linemen, Donald Thomas, for the season. They will get Trent Richardson in this week through trade, but he’s unlikely to have much of an impact less than a week after joining this team. He might not even play on passing downs as he learns the blocking schemes, especially with Ahmad Bradshaw, one of the league’s premier passing down backs, behind him on the depth chart. Richardson will have an impact going forward, but the Colts should still get blown out this week by the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Indianapolis Colts 9

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

The Falcons have been destroyed by injuries thus far this season. Talented linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss at least 8 weeks after being put on short-term IR this week, taking away one of the few average or better starters the Falcons have on that side of the ball. Kroy Biermann, meanwhile, is out for the season with injury. He’s not the caliber of player that Weatherspoon is, but his absence will thin an already weak pass rush and force inexperienced youngsters into more action.

On top of that, they lost left tackle Sam Baker for at least this game. He’s really struggled thus far through 2 games, but his absence will force Lamar Holmes, who was already struggling on the right side, to play on the left side, while Jeremy Trueblood will start at right tackle. When we last saw Trueblood as a starter, he was one of the worst starting offensive tackles in the NFL, leading the NFL in quarterback hurries allowed in 2011. This offensive line was already struggling after losing both Tyson Clabo and Todd McClure this off-season, but Baker’s absence won’t make things better. Cameron Wake could dominate Lamar Holmes on the blindside.

They’ve also lost Steven Jackson for about 3 weeks with injury. In his absence, Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling will handle the load, which could definitely be a concern. After Jackson went down last week, they managed just 36 yards on 13 carries. The organization has previously never seen either as a lead back type, starting the plodding Michael Turner ahead of them last season, which is not a positive sign for their ability to carry the load in Jackson’s absence.

Meanwhile, Roddy White is dealing with a high ankle injury that is seriously sapping his effectiveness. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez have had to step up in his absence and Jones had a huge game last week, catching 11 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. He probably won’t repeat that again, but he could still have a good game, even with a revitalized Brent Grimes likely matching up with him. Jones’ size advantage could be too much for White to overcome. Gonzalez could also have a big game, so I’m not too worried about the passing offense, but I have serious concerns about the offensive line, the defense, and the running game.

The fact that the Rams almost came back from what was once a 21-0 deficit to win last week, after all of the Falcons’ injuries, have to be concerning going forward. It’s especially concerning since Miami looks like a solid football team. They might not make the playoffs in the AFC, but they should at least win 8 games. It’s not going to be easy for the Falcons to come into Miami and win, especially considering their relative road struggles in the Matt Ryan era. We don’t have a lot of line value with the Dolphins as favorites, but I do like them to cover as short favorites. I’m not that confident in them though because they are making their home debut week 3, a situation teams are 20-40 ATS in since 1989. They could be exhausted from starting the season with two road games.

Miami Dolphins 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against spread: Miami -2

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Commanders, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2)

The Redskins aren’t making the playoffs in the loaded NFC after starting 0-2, but this wasn’t unpredictable. It’s going to take Robert Griffin a year or so to get back to where he was, just like it took Tom Brady when he tore his ACL in 2008. Mike Shanahan insists that the Redskins haven’t abandoned the read option and QB runs because of Griffin’s knee, but because of the game situation, as they’ve frequently been trailing and by a lot of points. That’s a very valid point, but it’s still very possible that Griffin isn’t comfortable running like he once did and either way, it’s probably going to remain a problem going forward.

This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL so they’re going to have to pass more than maybe they’d like. They’re starting two rookies in the secondary who are playing like it and the rest of the unit, outside of Kerrigan and Orakpo, is not much better. The Lions have the personnel to tear through their defense like Green Bay or Philadelphia did and establish another big lead. That will put the Redskins’ offense in situations where they can’t run their game plan and they probably wouldn’t be able to run it as effectively like they’d like to anyway because of Griffin’s injury situation. He’s just not as explosive as he was last year and his footwork and throwing mechanics are a mess.

The Redskins shouldn’t be favored here. The Lions are still a borderline playoff team in the loaded NFC in my eyes and one of the top-10 teams in the NFL overall. They only went 4-12 last year because of bad luck and other unsustainable things like inability to recover fumbles, turnovers going for touchdowns, poor special teams play, strength of schedule, and inability to win games decided by a touchdown or less. I don’t hold a loss in Arizona against them that much because Arizona is a capable football team and their week 1 win over Minnesota remains impressive.

Reggie Bush might miss this week with injury, but I’m not so sure that Joique Bell isn’t just as good. Bell was 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run among running backs last season, behind only Darren Sproles, and also averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 82 carries. This year, he had 10 catches for 105 yards on 13 targets and 37 routes run, along with 56 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries. He’ll have a big game against Washington’s poor defense if pressed into action.

The Lions are also in a situation that favors them as they’re road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 88-52 ATS in that situation since 2008 and that trend hits about 65% historically, regardless of what year you use to cut off your sample size. I’m fairly confident they’ll pull off the “upset” win here in Washington this week.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Redskins 24 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Patriots, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at New England Patriots (2-0)

Tom Brady completed under 50% of his passes in a game last week for the first time since 2009 and it took a perfect storm for that to happen. It was a combination of the worst receiving corps he’s ever worked with, a Thursday Night game, and terrible weather. Two of those situations will be gone this week as the Patriots actually have extra time to prepare for this one and the weather is expected to be fine. Unfortunately, their receiving corps probably won’t be much better. Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen remain out and, while you never know with the Patriots, if I had to guess right now, I don’t think Rob Gronkowski is going to play.

I definitely underestimated Tom Brady’s ability to get this new receiving corps assimilated before the season started. Brady has had success with receivers that haven’t been that good in the past, but they’ve always been veterans. The Patriots’ system is incredibly complex because of all the timing routes and it’s very understandable that it would be overwhelming for rookie receivers, who tend to take a while to get adjusted to the NFL anyway. Even Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez didn’t put up huge numbers as rookies. They’ll have to hope that extra time to prepare and another week under their belts will lead to superior play from their rookies, which is certainly possible.

Fortunately, the Patriots have been given a very easy schedule to start their season, starting with the Bills and Jets and now with the 0-2 Buccaneers in New England, who actually lost to the Jets week 1. The Buccaneers are in shambles right now. Josh Freeman has now completed 131 of 262 (50.0%) for 1639 yards (6.3 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in his last 7 games, dating back to last season. Couple that with all of the reports coming out about him and it’s very hard to trust him to move the ball, especially against a Patriots defense that, at least early on, looks as good as it’s been in years.

As a result of Freeman’s struggles, the Buccaneers are converting just 60.5% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, which is only ahead of Jacksonville. Their defense is playing well, allowing just 72.9% of 1st and 10s to be converted for subsequent firsts, but the disparity is still the 3rd worst in the NFL, ahead of only Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. The Patriots, as bad as they’ve been offensively, actually rank 6th in this disparity, largely because their allowing opponents to convert just 55.6% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, 2nd behind only the Jets in the NFL. Facing the Bills and the Jets helps, but the Buccaneers have also faced the Jets so it’s not like these two teams have played completely different schedules.

I think the Patriots have a very good chance to break out this week. The Patriots have had just 1 three game stretch without a 7+ point win since 2006. Meanwhile, after games in which he has 16 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 26-15 ATS, including 18-6 ATS off a win. I’m not willing to put a lot of confidence on it, but I really feel like this is the week they finally sort of resemble the Patriots. This season really reminds me of 2006.With a new receiving corps, Brady started the season completing 50% of his passes, even less than this year, in near upset losses to the Bills and Jets, but the Patriots eventually got their act together and went 12-4, before eventually losing in the AFC Championship. That narrative could repeat itself.

New England Patriots 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 1

The Seahawks 29-3 win over the 49ers is very impressive, but if they were to play in San Francisco this week, I would pick the 49ers. These two teams are more evenly matched than it appears this week because of Seattle’s ridiculous home field advantage. However, the Seahawks are still my pick of the two to win the division, get a first round bye, and go on to the Super Bowl as a result. No one is winning in Seattle this season. The 49ers, meanwhile, have 40+ years of history working against them coming off a Super Bowl loss.

Week 2 Studs

LE Cliff Avril

LE Michael Bennett

RE Red Bryant

DT Brandon Mebane

CB Walter Thurmond

Week 2 Duds

FB Derrick Coleman

LT Breno Giacomini

RT Paul McQuistan

LG James Carpenter

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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers, Uncategorized

Last week: 2

No shame in losing to the Seahawks in Seattle. No one won there last season and I don’t think anyone is winning there this season, including playoffs. Frank Gore’s slow start has to be concerning, however. He’s rushed for just 60 yards on 30 carries thus far this season. Ordinarily, it’s important not to overreact to 2 games, but Gore is a 30-year-old running back with 2259 career touches so you have to worry that he could just be done. Neither Kendall Hunter nor LaMichael James is capable of handling much of a bigger load, while Marcus Lattimore, the likely lead back of the future, is not expected to play this season as he recovers from injury.

Week 2 Studs

ROLB Aldon Smith

Week 2 Duds

QB Colin Kaepernick

FB Bruce Miller

WR Anquan Boldin

LT Joe Staley

LG Mike Iupati

RT Anthony Davis

CB Nnamdi Asomugha

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

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Last week: 4

Ryan Clady being out for the season hurts, but remember who they have under center. No quarterback protects their own blindside better than Peyton Manning. He thrived with a group of nobodies at left tackle in Indianapolis and he’ll be fine without Clady in Denver. They should still cruise through a very weak (at least at the top) AFC. His absence will be a bigger deal in the post-season, but they should still be considered AFC front runners.

Week 2 Studs

QB Peyton Manning

RB Knowshon Moreno

Week 2 Duds

RB Montee Ball

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

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Last week: 8

The way young players have stepped up on what was previously a horrible defense has to be very exciting for Saints fans. Cameron Jordan, back at his collegiate position for 5-technique end, is playing like one of the best in the game, while Junior Galette, Akiem Hicks, and rookie John Jenkins are also playing well. The offense is going to score points. There’s no concern there. But if they can stop teams at even an average rate, they’re going to be tough to beat. Almost every year a team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. The Saints are the obvious front runner to do so right now.

Week 2 Studs

RT Zach Strief

LT Charles Brown

LG Ben Grubbs

LE Cameron Jordan

Week 2 Duds

None

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

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Last week: 6

The Packers could have won in San Francisco and they bounced back to demolish the Redskins at home. Aaron Rodgers is playing incredible football right now, completing 55 of 79 (69.6%) for 813 yards (10.3 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception (which wasn’t his fault), while leading the Packers to 51 first downs to 9 punts. While the Redskins defense isn’t very good, the 49ers’ defense certainly is and he still shredded them. Once they get healthy defensively, this will be a very scary team.

Week 2 Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers

WR Randall Cobb

WR James Jones

LT David Bakhtiari

RG TJ Lang

RG Josh Sitton

Week 2 Duds

ROLB Clay Matthews

CB Micah Hyde

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