Year: 2013

Buffalo Bills 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Bills

With an easy schedule and a revamped defense, the Bills were a popular sleeper team heading into the season. The defense looked good and as limited as Ryan Fitzpatrick is, their stellar offensive line and strong running game would be able to support him enough against an easy schedule. Well, that was about half true. Fitzpatrick held up the “limited” part of the bargain and the offensive line and running game played well. After ranking 1st in 2011, the Bills ranked 4th in pass block efficiency this season, while CJ Spiller had a major breakout year, averaging 6.0 YPC. He held the NFL record for yards per carry going into week 17.

The defense didn’t hold up its end of the bargain, however, allowing 27.2 points per game, 26th in the NFL. Much of the blame can fall on terrible defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt, who won’t be back next season. That’s the case with the entirety of the coaching staff as Head Coach Chan Gailey was fired, replaced by former Syracuse Head Coach Doug Marrone. GM Buddy Nix remains, but you could argue he doesn’t deserve to. His crowning “achievement” as GM of the Bills was a 62.2 million dollar 7-year contract he gave to Ryan Fitzpatrick before he had even started 16 games for the team. Fitzpatrick predictably flopped. Even Nix seems to admit it.

Nix, who is normally open with these types of things, hinted at adding a quarterback through the draft recently, saying “I don’t want to leave here without a franchise guy [at quarterback] for the future in place. I have not said that before but I’m saying it now because it’s fact.” It sounds like someone has soured on Fitzpatrick, who is owed a non-guaranteed 7.25 million in 2013 and does not come with a huge cap hit. Fitzpatrick has also lost his biggest supporter, Gailey, and Marrone will probably want to bring in his own guy.

Nix also discussed potentially moving up for a quarterback, presumably Geno Smith if the Chiefs were to pass, saying “Let me say this: I think there’s a time that in the era that you’re in and the development of your team, there’s a time when you can move up a round to take a quarterback. And I think the time’s now for us. We need a good, young quarterback, and we’re going to do our best to get him.”

Quarterback

I detailed the Bills’ quarterback situation above. Assuming the Chiefs take Smith and the Bills stay put, they may have their choice between second tier quarterbacks Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, and Mike Glennon at 8th overall. They may also opt to wait until the 2nd round to grab Ryan Nassib. Nassib was recruited to Syracuse and coached all 4 years there by new Bills Head Coach Doug Marrone, so a fit would seem natural. However, there’s no guarantee that Marrone sees Nassib, widely regarded as a 2nd day pick, as a starting quarterback in the NFL, so he won’t be married to him or anything. Either way, it sounds like there will be a new signal caller under center for the Bills in 2013.

Wide Receiver

The Bills have tried two different starters opposite Steve Johnson in the last two years, David Nelson and Donald Jones. Neither impressed and the former will be coming off a major injury next season. Meanwhile, 2012 3rd round pick TJ Graham projects more as a slot receiver long term. They need a true #2 receiver opposite Johnson.

Defensive End

The Bills made a big splash in free agency, signing Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to boost their pass rush. The former played well, but the latter didn’t, struggling mightily until going down with a knee injury after week 5. Owed 3.9 million in 2013, non-guaranteed, the inconsistent and injury prone pass rusher might not be brought back and even if he is, they need some competition. Shawne Merriman, Chris Kelsay, and Kyle Moore all struggled in his absence.

Safety

Bills’ safety Jairus Byrd and Chargers’ safety Eric Weddle have a chance to be what Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu once were at safety in the NFL. However, Byrd is a free agent and will need to be re-signed. Even if he is re-signed, this position is still somewhat of a need, as other starter George Wilson, while he’s coming off a solid season, will be a free agent heading into his age 33 season in 2014.

Guard

Like Jairus Byrd, guard Andy Levitre is among the best in the league at his position and will need to be re-signed or replaced if he goes elsewhere. Not worth the offensive line franchise tag as an interior lineman and with the Bills’ franchise tag likely going to Byrd, there’s a stronger possibility that Levitre won’t be back than Byrd.

Cornerback

There’s still time for him to turn it around, but 2011 2nd round pick Aaron Williams has really struggled in his first two years in the league. He was replaced in the starting lineup by Leodis McKelvin last season, who played much better, but now he’s a free agent. They need to at least bring in some competition for Williams. Re-signing McKelvin would suffice.

Punt Returner

Here’s another reason why re-signing McKelvin would be a smart move. The Bills were first in the NFL in punt return average with McKelvin as the primary punt returner. If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll have to find someone else to take care of punts.

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Arizona Cardinals 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Cardinals

The Cardinals started this season 4-0 and everyone hoped on the bandwagon. Idiots like Michael Silver put them first in their Power Rankings, overlooking their general lack offensive of talent. Apparently everyone forgot that the Bills and Redskins did a similar thing just last year before falling back down to earth. Having a strong stretch in the middle of the season usually goes unnoticed, but when you do it to begin a season apparently that means you’re for real, even if your quarterback is Kevin Kolb, you can’t run the football or pass protect and your only good offensive player is Larry Fitzgerald.

The Cardinals fell back down to earth the following week against St. Louis, but what happened next was worse than anyone could have imagined. Kolb got hurt and didn’t play the rest of the way and things went from mediocre to just plain painful at quarterback. John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer played the rest of the way and only the latter even looked like he belonged on an NFL field.

That trio combined to throw for 3 touchdowns to 18 interceptions, wasting Fitzgerald (71/798/4) and the Cardinals won just 1 game (a defense and special teams led effort) the rest of the way. Ryan Lindley was the worst of the trio, setting the NFL record for most career pass attempts without a touchdown (171), while concurrently throwing 3 touchdowns to the defense. John Skelton wasn’t much better, throwing 2 touchdowns to 9 interceptions, while becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to get benched for Ryan Lindley twice (including once when his team led 13-0). Skelton was also at the helm for most of the Cardinals’ 58-0 bloodbath loss in Seattle.

Ken Whisenhunt was fired for the offense’s ineptitude and, owed 11 million next season, the future of the injury prone and inconsistent Kolb remains murky at best. Whoever takes over this job will have a massive task in rebuilding this offense as they were among the worst in the NFL in all three critical areas, passing, rushing, and offensive line. They ranked 32nd in YPA, YPC, and sacks allowed and advanced offensive line statistics didn’t paint any brighter of a picture. They ranked 29th in the league in pass block efficiency and they were ProFootballFocus’ 32nd ranked run blocking offensive line. It’s a shame because they have a solid defense. If they can ever get the offense figured out, they might be able to compete.

Quarterback

Kevin Kolb won’t be back at his scheduled 11 million dollar salary in 2013, so the Cardinals have an obvious need at quarterback. In spite of his shortcomings and his injury history, Kolb is the only passable quarterback on their roster. They had 3 other quarterbacks start games for them this season and they combined to throw 3 touchdowns to 18 interceptions. The Cardinals may opt to bring Kolb back at a cheaper price or bring in a veteran like Alex Smith or Michael Vick, but if they don’t have a quarterback in place by draft day, expect them to take one at #7 overall. A 2nd rounder won’t be ready right away, especially in this weak quarterback class, and they don’t have anyone to function as a stopgap.

Offensive Tackle

It might be best for the Cardinals to address the quarterback position before the draft so they can address the offensive line at #7. They might address the offensive line during free agency with 2008 1st round picks Jake Long, Branden Albert, Ryan Clady, and Gosder Cherilus all possibly being free agents this offseason (though they could be franchised), but it’s unclear if the Cardinals will have the cap space to get into bidding wars for those guys.
Either way, offensive tackle is a huge need for them. Their offensive line settled down a little bit when D’Anthony Baptiste was benched midseason, but they still ranked 29th in the league in pass block efficiency. They can’t feel comfortable with Nate Potter and Bobby Massie being their starting offensive tackles in 2013. They were 7th and 4th round picks respectively in 2012 and predictably struggled as rookies.

Guard

Tackle wasn’t the only issue for the Cardinals on the offensive line. Adam Snyder was ProFootballFocus’ 78th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. In 2011, with the 49ers, he was 76th out of 78. I have no idea why the Cardinals gave him a 5 year, 17.5 million dollar deal last offseason, but he’s owed a non-guaranteed 2.9 million in 2013 and even if he’s back, it shouldn’t be as a starter. This is arguably a bigger need than tackle because, unlike Massie and Potter, Snyder is not young and didn’t improve down the stretch.

Middle Linebacker

I feel like I’ve been writing that Paris Lenon needs to be upgraded since he was in Detroit, but one of the league’s most marginal talents has somehow gotten starting jobs in St. Louis and Arizona since. There’s no getting rid of him. It’s been a while since I’ve seen someone as marginal as him last this long in the league. However, he’s been even worse over the last few years as he’s aged, ranking next to last among middle linebackers on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 2 years. Heading into his age 36 season in 2013, they really need a new starter inside next to Daryl Washington.

Rush Linebacker

The Cardinals ranked 23rd in pass rush efficiency last season despite good play from their defensive line. O’Brien Schofield and Sam Acho ranked 25th and 30th respectively out of 34 eligible among rush linebackers on ProFootballFocus last season. They at least need some competition for the young linebackers as they also lack depth behind them and both have had some injury issues.

Safety

Kerry Rhodes revitalized his career this season, but Adrian Wilson had arguably the worst season of his career next to him. He was removed in sub packages and even admitted himself that he doesn’t expect to be back with the team next season, owed 3.5 million in his age 34 season. They could bring in a replacement for him in the starting lineup or they may opt to go forward with Rashad Johnson, who saw increased playing time down the stretch, as a starter in 2013. Either way, I think they do need to add some youth at the position as Rhodes will be a free agent heading into his age 32 season next offseason.

Cornerback

The Cardinals really struggled at the cornerback spot opposite Patrick Peterson. William Gay was terrible, while 3rd round rookie Jamell Fleming barely saw the field. They have other needs so they’ll probably give Fleming the first crack at the starting job in 2013, but it wouldn’t hurt them to add some extra competition.

Running Back

Chris Wells is not expected to be back. The former 1st round pick is coming off an injury plagued season in which he averaged just 2.7 YPC and before week 17’s game he said he was auditioning for the other 31 teams in that game. He didn’t play a single snap. With Ryan Williams coming off his 2nd major injury in as many years, they could use some better insurance than La’Rod Stephens-Howling and William Powell, who were inconsistent when counted on this season. There’s a reason the Cardinals finished the year ranked dead last in YPC at 3.4.

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Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Falcons, Seahawks

Note: I normally don’t do picks this early, but Chris Clemons is expected to be out with a torn ACL. Once news of that is confirmed, this line will go up from -2.5. I like the Falcons either way, but I like them a lot more at -2.5 than -4.5, so I’m going to get this one locked in before the line moves. And if Clemons doesn’t have a torn ACL, well I was going to make this pick anyway so it’s not a loss.

Allow me to save you some time and give you all the analysis you’ll hear on ESPN or any other major sports network shows: “Matt Ryan has never won a playoff game so he can’t possibly win this game BLAH BLAH BLAH.” That’s one of the stupidest arguments because it presumes you can tell from 3 games that a generally solid quarterback somehow becomes worse in the postseason than the regular season.

Peyton Manning, though obviously a better quarterback, was in a similar situation early in his career, losing his first 3 postseason games, before winning 2 in 2003 and taking his team to the AFC Championship. Eli Manning lost his first two before leading the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2007, winning 4 in the process. Two of Ryan’s three losses came against eventual Super Bowl champs and one came on the road as a rookie. And yet people still seem to think that he can’t possibly win this game because of what happened in those first 3 games.

Everyone in the media will probably be on the Seahawks this week and an early ESPN poll shows that the public is 2/3rds on the Seahawks. I don’t have public betting action yet, but I bet the public will be all over Seattle getting points. I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run and this week is certainly no exception. I especially love fading them when they’re on a dog because that creates a slighted favorite and gives them even more motivation. The Bengals and Colts were popular upset picks this week. How’d that work out?

I’ve been down on the Falcons all season. I’ve frequently said that they’re not as good as their record because of a lot of close calls with inferior teams. I still think they will lose at home to either Green Bay or San Francisco. Those teams are different monsters. But, it’s almost like the Falcons have become underrated for being overrated, that people have called the Falcons “overrated” so many times that everyone has forgotten that they’re a good football team with a great home field advantage.

Matt Ryan is 32-6 at home in his career, while the Seahawks have lost in Miami, Arizona, St. Louis, and Detroit this year, had a close call in Carolina, went to overtime with Chicago, and trailed 14-0 in Washington just last week before Robert Griffin got hurt. And that’s what people are overlooking this week (as well as the impact of Chris Clemons’ loss, contrary to popular belief rookie Bruce Irvin can’t fill his shoes as an every down end).

While the Seahawks are 12-24 ATS as non-divisional road dogs since 2005, the Falcons are 14-6 ATS as non-divisional home favorites since 2008, only losing twice (once was against the Packers in the playoffs in 2010, but no one was stopping them that year). On top of that, the Seahawks have to play this game on the East Coast at 1 PM as a West Coast team, a huge disadvantage. I expect them to get another home win against a road challenged team and for Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons to use the criticism positively and get his first postseason win.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -2.5 (-110) 4 units

Cleveland Browns 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Browns

The Browns have played in just 1 playoff game since 1994 (they were deactivated for 3 years in that stretch, but still). Lack of continuity continues to be an issue for them and it won’t get any better for them next season. They have a new owner who has brought in a new GM and front office, which will bring in a new Head Coach once again. That Head Coach is expected to be Chip Kelly, who is expected to bring in yet another new quarterback.

The good news for the Browns: The had just 4 losses by more than 10, only 3 if you don’t count a meaningless week 17 game in which 3rd stringer Thad Lewis had to start. Chip Kelly has the potential to be the best coach they’ve had since being reactivated. If Kelly and whatever new quarterback they bring in can get anything out of a young, but promising offensive group of talent, they have a talented enough defense to compete in an AFC North that is in flux right now.

Defensive End

The Browns’ defense is better than the Browns’ offense, but they’ll probably focus more on the defense that the offense this season. They have a lot of young talent on offense that they need to wait on to develop. Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, Mitchell Schwartz, Travis Benjamin, and Josh Gordon were all drafted this year. Jason Pinkston, Greg Little, Owen Marecic, and Jordan Cameron were drafted in 2011. All of those guys were drafted in the first 4 rounds. They need to wait on these guys.

On defense, they ranked 26th in pass rush efficiency. Jabaal Sheard had a major sophomore slump this year after having a great rookie year in 2011. I still believe in the 2011 2nd round pick’s long term potential, but they need someone opposite him regardless. Frostee Rucker and Juqua Parker split snaps opposite him. Parker is a free agent heading into his age 35 season this offseason, while Rucker just isn’t that good.

Outside Linebacker

The Browns really struggled for consistency at outside linebacker this season as 6 different guys made starts and none of them really impressed. The Browns will strongly consider Manti Te’o at #6 overall. He would probably play middle linebacker and move D’Qwell Jackson, coming off a down year, back to his natural outside linebacker spot.

Cornerback

Sheldon Brown actually had a very good year opposite Joe Haden this season, but he’s a free agent heading into his age 34 season this offseason. Regardless of whether or not he’s brought back, they’ll need another cornerback to go with Joe Haden and up and down 2011 6th round pick Buster Skrine because Brown can’t be trusted in either the long term or short term.

Guard

Cleveland had the 3rd ranked offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency, but right guard Shawn Lauvao was the weak link and needs to be replaced. The 2010 3rd round pick has started 32 games in the last 2 seasons, but he really hasn’t been impressive.

Wide Receiver

The Browns’ top three wide receivers in terms of snaps played last season were all either in their 1st or 2nd year in the league. They predictably struggled, but there’s still time for them to turn it around. However, they could use a veteran in the mix. Mohamed Massaquoi, the “veteran” of the group, is a free agent, while 2011 2nd round pick Greg Little still doesn’t seem to be able to shake his issues with drops.

Tight End

Ben Watson is a free agent and they seem ready to give 2011 4th round pick Jordan Cameron a chance to be the starting tight end. They could use some veteran insurance in case he falters.

Quarterback

Will it be another new quarterback in 2013 for the Browns? Brandon Weeden was a 1st round pick just last year, but he struggled as a rookie and he’s already heading into his age 30 season. Everyone who drafted him has been fired with new ownership coming in and he was reportedly being given an audition for the 2013 job down the stretch. With Chip Kelly expected to be coming in, Weeden may be traded as he’d fit like a square peg in a round hole in Kelly’s system. Bringing in a veteran like Michael Vick, a dual threat quarterback, seems like something they’ll do.

Kicker

Phil Dawson is one of the best kickers in the league, but he’s a free agent once again and new CBA rules say he can’t be franchised again unless the Browns want to pay him the quarterback franchise tag price (around 15 million, not happening). If he can’t be re-signed, he’ll have to be replaced.

Punter

The Browns ranked 30th in the league in net punting average. Reggie Hodges is a free agent and they need to upgrade him.

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Detroit Lions 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Lions

What a weird year for the Lions. They outgained opponents by nearly a thousand yards, but still went 4-12, losing their final 8, after entering the year with hopes of improving on a 2011 playoff appearance. A 3-8 record in games decided by 7 or less and a 30th ranked -16 turnover differential doomed them and they were once again one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. Fortunately for them, their issues aren’t as major as most of the teams who finished with double digit losses. They got blown out in just 2 games and if they can avoid turnovers and penalties, they can once again be competitive in 2013. They also have a top-5 pick to add more talent to the mix. Expect them to focus on defense.

Cornerback

The Lions really need help at cornerback. The only cornerback who graded out positively on ProFootballFocus at the position was Chris Houston, who is a free agent. They have Bill Bentley and Jonte Green, 2012 3rd and 5th round draft picks, but Bentley is coming off a major injury and they need a blue chip prospect at the position.

Safety

Thanks to injuries and general inconsistencies, the Lions had 6 different players make several starts at safety last year. Their only above average player at the position is Louis Delmas, a very injury prone player who is a free agent this offseason. They were decent against the pass this year, 16th in YPA, because of a strong pass rush, but they desperately need some blue chip talent in a secondary where they’ve been patchwork for a while.

Defensive End

The Lions once again had one of the best pass rushes in the league this season. However, that was because of stud defensive tackles Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh. Their defensive ends didn’t really play that well. Cliff Avril had a down year by his standards while playing under the franchise tag. He rejected a 3 year, 30 million dollar deal last offseason from the Lions and won’t get a bigger one than that from them this offseason, so he could easily be elsewhere next year.

Meanwhile, Kyle Vanden Bosch was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated 4-3 defensive end, struggling mightily both as a pass rusher and a run stuffer. Owed 5.5 million in 2013, his age 35 season, he probably won’t be back. Behind Avril and Vanden Bosch, once promising rotational ends Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young both struggled this year. They need to add a stud defensive end to compliment Fairley and Suh in the middle and may need 2 new starters. They won’t let Damontre Moore get past them at #5.

Outside Linebacker

Both starting outside linebackers DeAndre Levy and Justin Durant are free agents. Durant should be brought back, but Levy has really struggled since moving from middle linebacker to outside linebacker following the 2010 season and with Stephen Tulloch in the middle, moving him back there is not a realistic option. They used some late round picks last year on outside linebackers, but I don’t know if any of them can start this year.

Offensive Tackle

Gosder Cherilus, once written off as a bust as the 17th overall pick in 2008, Cherilus had the best season of his career this season, just in time to be a free agent. The Lions will have to avoid overpaying him based on what he did just this season, but he should be brought back. If he’s not, Riley Reiff can step in at right tackle right away, but his long term future is at left tackle, where Jeff Backus will be a 36 year old in a contract year next season, assuming he’s even brought back. They’ll need a long term bookend for Reiff if Cherilus isn’t brought back.

Defensive Tackle

Obviously Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh are long term starters, but the Lions really like to rotate defensive lineman to keep them fresh and since it’s worked so well for Suh and Fairley so far, they’ll probably want to continue that. However, top reserves Sammie Lee Hill and Corey Williams are both free agents this offseason.

Wide Receiver

The Lions have Calvin Johnson and have used 2nd round picks on Titus Young and Ryan Broyles in the last two years, but they still have an immediate need at wide receiver. Broyles will probably start next season on the PUP after tearing his ACL late this season and Titus Young has been suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team, including purposely lining in the wrong position during a game in an attempt to sabotage the team. Behind them, Kris Durham and Mike Thomas really struggled down the stretch. They don’t need to draft another receiver, but they could use another veteran in the mix. They may opt to restructure the deal of veteran Nate Burleson, a 32 year old receiver who is owed 4.5 million next season.

Kicker

Jason Hanson still is a good kicker at age 42 (43 in July), but he’s a free agent and may just opt to hang them up. If he can’t be brought back, they’ll need to replace him.

Punter

The Lions ranked dead last in the NFL in net punting average. Nick Harris, a free agent, needs to be replaced.

Kick Returner

I don’t know what happened to Stefan Logan. Once one of the best return men in the league, Logan fumbled a ridiculous 6 times on special teams this year and he wasn’t even good when he didn’t fumble as the Lions ranked 31st in the league in kickoff return average with him as their primary return man. He was benched for week 17 after he randomly called a fair catch at the 4 yard line against Atlanta week 16 and I don’t expect him back in that role next season. They need to find someone to replace him.

Punt Returner

You can basically copy and paste what I said above. With Logan as their primary punt returner, the Lions ranked 22nd in the league in punt return average.

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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: Wild Card Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Seahawks

For analysis on Seattle click here
For analysis on Washington click here

Unlike in past years, the Seahawks aren’t just a good home team. They’re a good team with a great home field advantage. After all, they do rank #1 in DVOA and weighted DVOA. However, they still have road losses against St. Louis, Arizona, Detroit, and Miami, as well as close calls against Carolina and Chicago, all 6 of whom missed the playoffs. The Seahawks are just 7-12 ATS as road favorites since 2005 and I like that Washington may feel slighted that no one is really talking about them to win this game. I think Seattle has a better chance to win this game, but I’m going to grab the 3 points for a small play. It would have to be all the way past the key line of 4 for me to play a significant play on the Redskins though.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against spread: Washington +3 (-110) 2 units

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens: Wild Card Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks, Colts, Ravens

For analysis on Indianapolis click here
For analysis on Baltimore click here

The public is all over the dog on this one and it’s not just the public. I can’t tell you how many media people I’ve seen make the Colts their upset pick. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, whenever everyone is predicting the same upset, it rarely upsets and it’s always good to bet on a slighted favorite. The Colts are overrated as they have just 3 wins against .500 or better teams and 2 total wins by more than a touchdown.

They’re even worse on the road where they are 4-4, including 4 double digit losses and 3 by 20 or more. I think they get their 5th double digit loss here in Baltimore against a very good Ravens team at home. They’re just 2 losses removed from a 16 game home winning streak. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play because, of those 16 wins, 9 have come by a touchdown or less. I really like having to only lay 7 with the Ravens rather than the 9 I would have earlier in the week. All the action on Indianapolis has really brought the line down. It’s at 6.5 in some places.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Baltimore -7 (-110) 3 units

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Wild Card Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks, Packers, Vikings

For analysis on Minnesota click here
For analysis on Green Bay click here

The Vikings beat the Packers just last week so they will definitely hang within 8 of the Packers this week right? Well, that seems to be what everything thinks as the public is all over the Vikings. However, as is frequently the case when the public likes a dog, I expect them to be wrong. The Vikings are a completely different team on the road, especially outside. They are 7-1 at home, but 3-5 on the road, including 0-4 outside (making them 10-2 inside and 0-4 outside this season). In those 4 outside losses, Christian Ponder is 80 of 142 for 693 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

The Vikings lost by 9 in Green Bay earlier this season, despite 210 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson. He might do that again, but there’s also a very good chance he won’t and I think the Vikings will be in real trouble if he doesn’t. Even if he does, Ponder is definitely capable of wasting a great Peterson game, given that he’s outside, on the road, and playing with a bad elbow. In losses, Peterson has rushed for 762 yards on 104 attempts (7.3 YPC) this season. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is 12-4 ATS off a loss since 2009.

Green Bay Packers 34 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -8 (-110) 4 units

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: Wild Card Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, Texans

For analysis on Cincinnati click here
For analysis on Houston click here

As tempting as it is to go against Matt Schaub, whose team is reeling right now, especially since this is Matt Schaub’s first playoff start (quarterbacks are 5-13 ATS at home in their first playoff start since 2002), I’m going with the Texans. Andy Dalton has only legitimately beaten one playoff team in his career (against a banged up and still inexperienced Washington team that wasn’t as good as they are now). I also feel like this line would have been -7.5 a few weeks ago. I think people are overreacting too much to the Texans’ recent struggles. It’d have to be an even 3 for me to make Houston a significant play, but they should be the right side.

Houston Texans 24 Cincinnati Bengals 16

Pick against spread: Houston -4.5 (-110) 1 unit

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