Month: March 2014

Kansas City Chiefs sign DE Vance Walker

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Vance Walker has been one of the most underrated interior defensive linemen in the NFL over the past 2 seasons. He’s been an above average starter in both Atlanta and Oakland over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle and 36th ranked defensive tackle in the past 2 seasons respectively. Despite his strong 2012 in Atlanta, he was only able to land a one-year deal in Oakland last off-season and after another strong season in Oakland in 2013, he was still only able to land a 3-year, 10 million dollar deal with the Chiefs (with another 3 million available through incentives)

Obviously this was a great deal for the Chiefs, who needed another starter on the defensive line after losing Tyson Jackson to the Falcons. Walker isn’t as good of a pure run stopper as Jackson, but he’s a much better pass rusher capable of playing all 3 downs if need be, which wasn’t true of Jackson. Considering Jackson landed 25 million over 5 years in Atlanta, with more money guaranteed (11 million) as the total value of this contract, it’s a bargain for the Chiefs. The only minor concern is that Walker has never played in a true 3-4 and at 6-2 305, he’s not an obvious fit at 5-technique defensive end.

Grade: A-

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Oakland Raiders re-sign RB Darren McFadden

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

Darren McFadden has never been able to live up to his billing as the 4th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and was never able to live up to his huge 2010 season, in which he rushed for 1157 yards and 7 touchdowns on 223 carries (5.2 yards per carry) and added 47 catches for another 501 yards and 3 scores. In 3 seasons since, he’s played a total of 29 games out of 48 and rushed for just 1700 yards and 11 touchdowns on 446 carries (3.8 yards per carry).

This season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked running back. Even with the big 2010 season, he’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 223 carries or 270 touches. In his 2nd straight season of sub-3.5 yards per carry in 2013, he was benched for backup Rashad Jennings following an injury. McFadden supporters always seem to make excuses for him, blaming the blocking scheme, and the lack of supporting talent, or injuries, but at a certain point when he needs to be written off as a bust.

This 1-year, 4 million dollar deal won’t hurt the Raiders long-term, but they’re giving him another chance to be the starter when I don’t think he deserves it. Even if it is a one-year deal, this contract has an annual value higher than every other running back signed this off-season, including Ben Tate (2 years, 7 million) Joique Bell (3 years, 9.3 million), Donald Brown (3 years, 10.5 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 14 million). Guys like Andre Brown, Knowshon Moreno, and Maurice Jones-Drew, all still available, probably will get less than 4 million yearly as well when they end up getting signed.

Most of, if not all of those running backs are better than McFadden. The Raiders would have been better off re-signing Jennings to a contract similar to the one the Giants gave him. Jennings, with the Raiders last year, rushed for 733 yards and 6 touchdowns on 163 carries, an average of 4.5 yards per carry, and added 36 catches for 292 yards through the air, taking over as the starter for Darren McFadden mid-season. Even if they didn’t want to go that direction, there were a number of better things they could have done at the running back position this off-season.

Grade: C

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Green Bay Packers re-sign DT BJ Raji

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

BJ Raji reportedly turned down a 5-year, 40 million dollar extension from the Packers before last season. If that’s true, he has to be kicking himself hard. This 1-year, 4 million dollar deal is a steep fall from that. The Packers originally offered Raji this 1-year, 4 million dollar deal before the start of the off-season, but he turned it down in favor of hitting the open market. Clearly, the open market did not prove to be as lucrative as he expected as he was forced to settle for that one-year deal. It’s a rough off-season for him.

However, that’s what happens when you have as bad of a season as Raji had last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 3-4 defensive end this season. This type of thing is nothing new for him. Sure, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2012 (with 3 games at nose tackle in which he was about average), but he has a history of inconsistency. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked defensive tackle in 2011, but in 2010, he was their 28th ranked defensive tackle before a dominant post-season on the Packers’ Super Bowl run.

Committing a massive long-term contract to him would have been a huge mistake, even last season coming off of a strong season, so the Packers did well to get him on a one-year prove it deal. It might not necessarily pan out, but at his best he’s a talented and versatile defensive lineman who can play every spot on a 3-man defensive line, stuff the run and disrupt with interior penetration in sub packages.

Grade: B+

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Washington Redskins re-sign MLB Perry Riley

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Perry Riley, a 2010 4th round pick, has been starting for the Redskins at middle linebacker for about 2 ½ years, since the middle of the 2011 season. He was about an average starter in both 2011 and 2012, for the first 1 ½ year and a half of his career, but he struggled mightily in his contract year last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 46th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. Given that, the Redskins are overpaying him giving him 13 million over 3 years (with his first year’s salary of 6 million guaranteed). That being said, the Redskins’ dire need at middle linebacker and his previous history as an average starter make this a little bit better of a deal.

Grade: C+

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Houston Texans sign QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Texans, Uncategorized

After pawning Matt Schaub’s fat contract off on the Raiders and somehow getting a draft pick out of it, the Texans were left without a veteran quarterback to compete with a quarterback they presumably will draft in May’s 2014 NFL Draft. Neither Case Keenum nor TJ Yates were viable options. Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick won’t set the world on fire or anything, but he has 75 starts over the last 6 seasons combined and he’s fared reasonable well, displaying himself to at least be a top-40 quarterback and a competent spot starter in the NFL, which is something the Texans didn’t previously have.

He’s completed 1479 of 2464 (60.0%) for 16013 yards (6.50 YPA), 102 touchdowns, and 85 interceptions during that time period. Now after signing Fitzpatrick, the Texans won’t have to force a rookie quarterback into action before he’s ready, which is critical, and the price is very reasonable. Fitzpatrick’s contract is worth 7.5 million over 2 years (with just the first year’s salary of 4 million guaranteed), which looks good when compared to deals received by Josh McCown (2 years, 10 million), Matt Moore (2 years, 8 million), Matt Cassel (2 years, 10 million), Michael Vick (1 year, 5 million) and Chad Henne (2 years, 8 million) over the past 2 off-seasons. Fitzpatrick is probably in the high end of that group of quarterbacks and he’s making less yearly than all of them. This is a very solid deal.

Grade: A

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Miami Dolphins re-sign DT Randy Starks

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Randy Starks is an underrated, undermentioned player who has graded out above average in each of the last 6 seasons from 2008-2013 since becoming a starter, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2009 and 7th ranked defensive tackle in 2013. He has scheme versatility at 6-3 312 and can play both 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 and defensive tackle in a 4-3 and, even though he’s going into his age 31 season, he’s coming off one of the best seasons of his career.

The Dolphins are keeping him in Miami on a mere 2-year, 12 million dollar deal which is perfect for the stage of his career that Starks is in. Only 5 million dollars of it (his first year’s salary) is guaranteed so in case he rapidly declines next season, they can get out of this deal as if it was a 1-year, 5 million dollar pact. I’m shocked that they were able to keep Starks this cheap, especially after his inferior, one dimensional ex-teammate Paul Soliai got 33 million over 5 years (14 million guaranteed) from the Falcons. This is a very good deal with minimal downside.

Grade: A

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New York Jets re-sign OLB Calvin Pace

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jets, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Calvin Pace looked pretty done after the 2012 season, after recording 8 sacks in 2011 and 2012 combined and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2012. The Jets cut Pace going into his age 33 season last off-season, but brought him back on a cheap one year deal. That paid off as Calvin Pace had a career high 11 sacks. Some people mistake that for having the best year of his career, which isn’t true as you can’t just look at sack numbers.

He graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, thanks to just 3 quarterback hits and 21 quarterback hurries. That being said, it was clearly a better year than 2012. He’s now going into his age 34 season so he’s nothing but a stopgap starter, but the Jets needed one as they search for a long-term solution opposite Quinton Coples and they’re paying him appropriately, giving him 5 million over 2 years. It’s not a fantastic value, but this was a solid re-signing.

Grade: A-

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New York Giants sign S Stevie Brown

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Stevie Brown, a 2010 7th round pick by the Raiders, played a combined 163 snaps from 2010-2011, but broke out in 2012 with the Giants, intercepting 8 passes and playing 846 snaps. He wasn’t quite as good as the 8 interceptions would suggest because you can’t go just on pure interception totals, but he was still an above average safety on Pro Football Focus, grading out as their 26th ranked safety in 2012. However, he tore his ACL and missed the entire 2013 season.

That made it very tough to value him. He’s still just a one year wonder and one whose season wasn’t as good as the 8 interceptions would have suggested and he’s coming off of a serious injury, but he’s also proven he can be an above average starting safety for a team that needs safety help with the big salaried Antrel Rolle aging and Will Hill once again in trouble. I think the Giants absolutely handled this contract situation perfectly, giving him a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal with another million available in incentives. This was a smart move.

Grade: A

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Philadelphia Eagles sign S Malcolm Jenkins

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Malcolm Jenkins has had some decent years in his 5 year career, but ultimately he’s failed to live up to his billing as the 15th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. He struggled mightily as a slot cornerback as a rookie before being moved to safety, where he was an average starter according to Pro Football Focus in both 2010 and 2011. However, in 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked safety and in 2013 he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 65th ranked safety out of 86 eligible.

He has versatility to play both safety and slot cornerback, but the Eagles already have Brandon Boykin so he’ll be a pure safety in Philadelphia. However, the Eagles are paying him like an above average starting safety, which is something he’s never been. This 3-year deal is worth 16.25 million with 8.5 million of that guaranteed. He’ll help fill a need, but it’s a big overpay.

Grade: C

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Minnesota Vikings sign CB Captain Munnerlyn

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized, Vikings

The undersized Captain Munnerlyn (5-8 186) has been a late bloomer in his career, after struggling mightily early in his career after getting drafted in the 7th round in 2009. Very similar to the way the similarly sized Tim Jennings developed, Munnerlyn has emerged as an above average cornerback in the NFL. He had a solid 2012 year and the Panthers wisely brought him back on a cheap one year deal for 2013 after the market devalued him. Munnerlyn ended up being a big part of the reason why the Panthers had such a strong defense, doing his best Antoine Winfield impression (showing in coverage on the slot and the outside, as a run stopper, and as a blitzer) grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback, though “only” their 25th ranked cornerback in terms of pure coverage grade.

Now Munnerlyn goes to Antoine Winfield’s old team, the Vikings, who struggled mightily defensively last year in the first year of Winfield’s retirement. Munnerlyn does his best coverage work on the slot, but he can also play outside and he’s above average as a run stopper and blitzer for a cornerback. He’ll presumably start opposite Xavier Rhodes and move inside to the slot in sub packages in the role in which Adam Jones thrived in Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer’s system when Zimmer was the defensive coordinator in Cincinnati. I like the schematic fit and I like the price (11.25 million over 3 years with 4.45 million guaranteed) for the Vikings to fill this need. This was a smart move.

Grade: A

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