Month: March 2014

Tennessee Titans sign OT Michael Oher

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Titans, Uncategorized

Michael Oher had the worst year of his 5-year career last year, as the 2009 1st round pick graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 68th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible on the right side in Baltimore. Oher has actually regressed in almost every season as a pro. He had a strong rookie year, grading out 15th at his position, but then went 40th, 38th, 57th, and then, of course, 68th last season. Given that, I thought he’d have to take a cheap one-year prove it deal somewhere to rehab his value going into next off-season.

Apparently the Titans didn’t think it was necessary to give him last as they are paying him 20 million over 4 years with 9.5 million guaranteed. He’ll be paid like a reliable starter, which is not what he is. This deal is comparable to what right tackles Sebastian Vollmer (4 years, 17 million), Andre Smith (3 years, 18 million), and Phil Loadholt (4 years, 25 million) got last off-season, as what Austin Howard (5 years, 30 million) got this off-season. Those players are all significantly better and more reliable. The Titans would have been better off promoting promising swing tackle Byron Stingily or drafting someone like Jake Matthews or Taylor Lewan 11th overall than overpaying Oher this off-season.

Grade: C-

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign C Evan Dietrich-Smith

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Evan Dietrich-Smith took over as the starting center from Jeff Saturday late in the 2012 season and played solid in limited action and then graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked center in 2013 in his first full season as a starter. He’s still just a one year wonder, but this deal is a steal, getting him for under 4 million dollars per year. I can’t believe the Packers wouldn’t match the Buccaneers or outbid them on this one.

This deal is worth 14.25 million over 4 years, with 7.25 million guaranteed. Dietrich-Smith will likely continue playing center in Tampa Bay, though he has the versatility to move to guard if need be. Jeremy Zuttah, meanwhile, will either move back to guard or be a cap casualty in a move that would save the Buccaneers 4.5 million on the cap, more than Dietrich Smith’s average salary. This was a great get for the Buccaneers.

Grade: A

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Buffalo Bills extend S Aaron Williams

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bills, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

So the Bills won’t give Jairus Byrd 9 million per year, but giving Aaron Williams 6.5 million is fine? This makes Aaron Williams the 11th highest paid safety in the NFL in terms of average salary. Williams, a 2011 2nd round pick, was a bust at cornerback in 2011 and 2012, grading out 87th out of 109 eligible cornerbacks in 2011 and 91st out of 113 eligible safeties in 2012. He reinvented himself as a solid safety in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked safety.

That being said, he’s still a one year wonder. Who is to say he doesn’t regress in 2014? Even if he doesn’t, he’s yet to prove he’s a top level safety. I find it hard to imagine anyone would find Williams to be worth 26 million or more over 4 years on the open market next off-season. Williams still had another year left on his rookie deal so I really don’t see the urgency to overpay him like this.

Grade: C-

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Detroit Lions re-sign RB Joique Bell

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Lions, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

3.1 million per year over 3 years might seem like too much money for a backup running back considering the way the running back position has been devalued, but Joique Bell, a restricted free agent, might have been the best running back on the open market if he were an unrestricted free agent. If you compare this deal to deals received by Darren McFadden (1 year, 4 million), Ben Tate (2 years, 7 million), Donald Brown (3 years, 10.5 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 14 million), this is a very reasonable deal.

Bell is one of the better and more important backup running backs in the NFL, playing 562 snaps, 23rd most in the NFL among running backs. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked running back in 2013 and 12th ranked in 2012. In the past 2 seasons, he’s averaged 4.3 yards per carry, while serving as a valuable goal line back (11 touchdowns) and receiver out of the backfield (105 catches). He’s even more important considering Reggie Bush’s injury history and age (going into his age 29 season). This was a very solid move to bring him back.

Grade: A-

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Denver Broncos sign S TJ Ward

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This is an absolute steal. TJ Ward definitely took less money to join a contender in Denver because there’s no way 23 million over 4 years was the best offer Ward could get. He got 5 million dollars less over 4 years than Donte Whitner did to take Ward’s old spot in Cleveland. Jairus Byrd, meanwhile, got more guaranteed money (28 million) than Ward got total money, not to mention a 9 million dollar annual salary over 6 years. And neither of those deals were that bad.

Ward will slot in at strong safety next to Rahim Moore and be a massive upgrade at a position of need. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd and 6th ranked safety in 2012 and 2013 respectively, the only safety in the NFL to finish top-6 both seasons. He was also 13th in 2011, despite missing 8 games with injury. That was really his only injury plagued season as he missed 2 games in his other 3 seasons combined, playing 54 games in 4 seasons, starting each of them and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. This is a great move.

Grade: A

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New Orleans Saints sign S Jairus Byrd

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Saints, Uncategorized

This contract makes Jairus Byrd the highest paid safety in the NFL, paying him 54 million over 6 years with 28 million guaranteed, but he deserves to be. Byrd has been the league 5 years, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2009, and he’s been an above average starter on Pro Football Focus in each season. He’s been especially dominant over the past 3 seasons, grading out 3rd in 2011 among safeties and 2nd in 2012.

In 2013, he was “just” 8th because he missed 5 games to start the season, but he was just as dominant upon return as he was before the injury and he doesn’t have an injury history, missing 2 games from 2009-2012 combined. Even still, he’s one of just two safeties to grade out in the top-8 in all 3 seasons from 2011-2013, along with Eric Weddle. He’s the best deep safety in the NFL and arguably the best overall safety. He’s what everyone thinks Earl Thomas is (not that Thomas is bad).

If any other team gave him this deal, I’d give them an A- because I think it’s appropriate, but not outstanding value. However, I’m giving the Saints a B+ because they already have a lot of big contracts on their cap, with guys like Drew Brees, Jahri Evans, Ben Grubbs, Marques Colston, Curtis Lofton, among others, and they still need to re-sign Jimmy Graham long-term. This team core is going to be really expensive long-term because of how top heavy their cap is, which is going to hurt their ability to add depth in the future.

Grade: B+

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Miami Dolphins sign S Louis Delmas

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Dolphins had a need at safety after deciding to move on from Chris Clemons. I’m not entirely sure why they did that considering Clemons has been a solid starter over the past two seasons, but I’m not taking that into account in this grade. Signing Delmas was a pretty solid move. Delmas has a history of injury, missing 13 games from 2011-2012, but he played pretty well last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked safety. The Lions cut him because it saved 6 million on the cap and in cash, but he can stay play well when healthy. Giving him a one year deal, worth only 3.5 million, was a very smart move for the safety needy Dolphins.

Grade: A-

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Miami Dolphins sign DT Earl Mitchell

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Miami Dolphins had a need for a defensive tackle after losing Paul Soliai to the Falcons and I was actually intrigued to see Earl Mitchell sign with a 4-3 team going into the off-season. He was a 3rd round pick in 2010, but the 6-2 292 pounder was miscast as a 3-4 nose tackle in Houston over the last 3 seasons. Even still, he wasn’t terrible, so there’s a chance he can become a solid starter in a 4-3.

I never really thought he’d get this kind of money though so I can’t call it a great move. He could become a solid starter or at least rotational player with Jared Odrick and Randy Starks in Miami, but 16 million over 4 years, including 9 million of that guaranteed seems like a big bet to place that he’ll become that kind of player. I don’t really know who else would have given up this kind of money for him and even if someone would have, the Dolphins probably should have just let them have him.

Grade: B-

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Miami Dolphins sign OT Branden Albert

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Dolphins obviously needed a blindside protector, possibly more than any team in the league, but this was a buyer’s market in terms of left tackles, which is a rarity considering top level blindside protectors rarely are allowed to hit the open market. However, this off-season Albert, Jared Veldheer, Eugene Monroe, and Anthony Collins all were available as high level left tackles, while Rodger Saffold has the ability to be a strong left tackle when healthy. Branden Albert got 5 years, 46 million, with 25 million of that guaranteed, which makes him, by far, the highest paid of the bunch and I don’t think he’s the best of the bunch.

Eugene Monroe got 5 years, 37.5 million with 19 million guaranteed from the Ravens. Eugene Monroe has been a top-16 offensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, maxing out as #6 in 2011. He graded out 16th overall this season, but playing even better once he was traded to Baltimore. The Baltimore “version” of Monroe was the #12 offensive tackle this season. Jared Veldheer got 35 million over 5 years from Arizona and he was Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 and 12th ranked offensive tackle in 2012, before an injury plagued contract year hurt his value a little bit.

Still, I think both of those players are better than Albert, who is 3 years older, going into his age 30 season, has a history of back problems, and really didn’t get a lot of interest from his original team, the Chiefs, in keeping him around. Albert has never graded out higher than 18th on Pro Football Focus, ranking 18th in 2011, 25th in 2012, and 28th in 2013. Veldheer and Monroe have graded out higher than 18th a combined 5 times over the last 3 years, with the exclusion of fluky injury plagued year for Veldheer in 2013. Albert will help the Dolphins, but he’s not the elite blindside protector the Dolphins are paying him like, so they really overpaid, to the tune of about 10 million dollars over 5 years.

Grade: C

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign OT Anthony Collins

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Many fans might not have heard of Anthony Collins, but the NFL sure knows who he is. He’s been the Bengals’ swing tackle for years and he’s always shown well when given the chance, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in limited action in every season since 2009. In 2013, he was given his biggest chance yet, with Andrew Whitworth moving to left guard in place of the injured Clint Boling and Anthony Collins taking over at left tackle. Collins played a career high 592 snaps and didn’t allow a sack or quarterback hit all season, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked offensive tackle despite the limited action.

While this deal is an obvious step up from the cheap two-year deal he signed with the Bengals in 2012 to stay as their swing tackle, Collins deserved to be paid like an above average blindside protector and that’s exactly what this deal does. Collins gets 30 million over 5 years with 15 million guaranteed, which is squarely behind what Branden Albert, Eugene Monroe, Jared Veldheer, and Rodger Saffold got this off-season and Collins has every chance to be just as good once he gets a full 16 game season.

I don’t love this deal or anything because Collins is not the secret to the NFL that he is to the common fan, so the Buccaneers had to pay proper market value for him, but it’s still a very solid move by them and they didn’t overpay. Collins will be an upgrade over an aging and overweight Donald Penn, who goes into his age 31 season in 2014 and who was just Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked offensive tackle last season. Penn will be cut in a corresponding move, assuming they can’t trade him, either of which will save them 7.4 million in cash and cap space, which is less than Collins will cost. It’s a win for the Buccaneers.

Grade: B+

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