Month: March 2014

Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign DE Michael Johnson

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Buccaneers had a gaping hole at defensive end and filled it with Michael Johnson. Johnson is an incredibly athletic edge rusher who went in the 3rd round out of Georgia Tech in 2009 because a lot of his tape didn’t match his athleticism. He eventually put everything together in 2012 in the contract year of his rookie deal, as he recorded 13 sacks and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 4-3 defensive end.

The Bengals franchise tagged him instead of giving him a long-term deal because they wanted him to prove it again. At first glance, he doesn’t appear to have proven it, recording just 5 sacks, but he also added 16 quarterback hits and 40 quarterback hurries, to go with 7 batted passes. Add in the fact that he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 defensive end against the run and you have a guy who was much better than his raw sack totals. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 4-3 defensive end.

Johnson has never had a good year when he wasn’t in a contract year, so there’s some concern he just coasts now that he has a 5-year, 43.5 million dollar deal with 24 million guaranteed. However, when you consider that the Vikings gave a far less proven player in Everson Griffin 42.5 million over 5 years, this deal looks like a steal. The Buccaneers had an equally big need at defensive end, a comparable amount of cap space, and were an equally unpleasing free agent destination, but unlike the Vikings, they were able to fill their need without massively overpaying. Johnson is a much better overall player than Griffen and this is a very solid deal. I was sure Johnson would get 10+ million yearly when I saw Griffen’s deal, but the Buccaneers got him for under 9.

Grade: A-

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign QB Josh McCown

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I think the Buccaneers might be overrating Josh McCown. Going into last season, Josh McCown was a 34-year-old quarterback who hadn’t posted a quarterback rating of over 70 since 2006. McCown played very solid in limited action with the Bears last season, completing 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.17 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception on 224 attempts, but it’s hard to believe that he suddenly just became a better quarterback at age 34. It was probably a combination of flukiness and the tutelage of Marc Trestman as head coach, neither of which are going to help him in Tampa Bay.

It’s a telling sign that Trestman and the Bears made little effort to bring McCown back as Jay Cutler’s backup. Meanwhile, Lovie Smith’s track record with quarterbacks is far less impressive. The same is true of his track record with offensive coordinators so I don’t trust Jeff Tedford to get the most out of McCown like Trestman and Aaron Kromer did. Sure, a tried and failed quarterback suddenly having a legitimate late career breakout isn’t completely unprecedented. Rich Gannon is a name that comes to mind. However, that’s hardly the norm and even Gannon deteriorated very quickly once he got into his mid-to-late 30s and fell out of the tutelage of Jon Gruden and Bill Callahan.

The money here isn’t really the issue. The Buccaneers are paying McCown 10 million over 2 years, which is comparable to deals that Matt Moore (2 years, 8 million), Matt Cassel (2 years, 10 million), and Chad Henne (2 years, 8 million) have gotten over the last two off-seasons. McCown fits very well with them in that high end backup group. The issue is that the Buccaneers immediately named Josh McCown the starter over Mike Glennon.

Mike Glennon wasn’t perfect in his first year in the league last season, but he was the best of the rookie quarterbacks and showed enough that he deserved another chance to be the starter. He completed 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.27 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, showing some of the tools necessary for him to develop into the type of quarterback that can take this team somewhere. Josh McCown, for all intents and purposes, is still a tried and failed NFL starting quarterback and one going into his age-35 season. He’s not going to be the one to get the Buccaneers anywhere. This move only sets them back a year or so, which is why I was not a fan of it at all.

Grade: D

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign CB Alterraun Verner

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Buccaneers replaced Darrelle Revis at 16 million a year with Alterraun Verner at 6.625 million a year (26.5 million over 4 years with 14 million guaranteed). I still would have kept Revis, even at 16 million, because he’s such a rare talent, and worked to build the coverage scheme around him on an island, rather than forcing him into a zone coverage scheme. However, this is a fantastic value and Verner is a much more natural fit for the coverage scheme that Lovie Smith really wants to run. Grading this move only, and ignoring the Revis aspect, this is a fantastic move.

This was a strong cornerback class in free agency, but all of the other top cornerbacks had warts. Sam Shields, Aqib Talib, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Vontae Davis all have inconsistent pasts, while Brent Grimes is going into his age 31 season and has a significant injury history. Verner has never had an truly elite year like any of those guys, but he’s made all 64 starts since being drafted in the 4th round in 2010 and he’s graded out in the top-24 on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, something only Joe Haden and Jason McCourty can also say. Every other top cornerbacks has either had at least one down year (Brandon Flowers, Vontae Davis, etc) been hurt (Brent Grimes, Darrelle Revis etc) or been in the league less than 4 years (Richard Sherman).

This past season was Verner’s past, as he graded out 11th overall among cornerbacks. Considering what other cornerbacks have gotten this off-season (Brent Grimes 4 years, 32 million, Aqib Talib 6 years, 57 million, Sam Shields 4 years, 39 million, Vontae Davis 4 years, 39 million) this is an absolute steal, even before you get into how good of a schemetic fit Verner is for what Lovie Smith wants to do.

Grade: A

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Cleveland Browns sign S Donte Whitner

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Leave it to the Browns to pay 5 million dollars more over 4 years to an inferior safety. The Browns signed Donte Whitner to a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal hours before the Broncos signed former Browns safety TJ Ward to a 4-year 23 million dollar deal. Some point out that Whitner’s deal has 1 million dollars less in guaranteed money, but if your only argument for why a deal is a better deal is that it’ll be slightly easier to get out of if he doesn’t live up to his salary than you’re probably in trouble.

There’s no denying that Ward is a better player than Whitner. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd and 6th ranked safety in 2012 and 2013 respectively, the only safety in the NFL to finish top-6 both seasons. He’s also graded out higher than Whitner in 3 of the last 4 seasons, since Ward was drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. Finally, Ward is over a year younger, which matters.

That being said, I don’t hate this deal for two reasons. One, it’s very possible that Ward would not have cut the Browns the same deal he gave to the Broncos, as one is a Super Bowl contender and the other hasn’t made the playoffs in years. It’s entirely possible that to keep Ward, they would have had to give him 30 or 32 million over 4 years. I still would have done that deal over signing Whitner to this deal, but it’s not completely fair to grade on pure numbers here.

Also, this isn’t a terrible value for Whitner. He’s an inconsistent player who graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus in each season from 2008-2010 in Buffalo and who allowed 12 touchdowns in regular season and post-season combined in 2012 on a 49ers team that allowed just 26 total passing touchdowns in the regular season and post-season combined. However, he graded out 8th among safeties in 2011 and 6th among safeties in 2013. I think the Browns made the wrong safety choice, even if they would have had to pay Ward 32 million, but this isn’t an awful deal.

Grade: C+

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New England Patriots sign CB Darrelle Revis

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Patriots, Uncategorized

After the Patriots signed Darrelle Revis, I tweeted that the NFL’s top cornerbacks were #1 Richard Sherman, #2 Darrelle Revis, and #10 everyone else. There’s a huge gap between the top-2 cornerbacks in the NFL and the rest of the NFL’s cornerbacks. All of the top cornerbacks on the market this off-season had warts, even if it was a very strong cornerback market.

Brent Grimes was going into his age 31 season with an injury history. Vontae Davis, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Sam Shields and Aqib Talib all have inconsistent histories. Alterraun Verner was the most consistent of the available free agent cornerbacks, making 64 starts in 4 years and grading out in the top-24 on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, but he’s never finished in the top-10. All those guys are in the #10 everyone else range. Once Darrelle Revis hit the open market, he was miles better than everyone else available.

Showing the volatility of the cornerback position, just two cornerbacks graded in the top-15 on Pro Football Focus in both 2012 and 2013. One was Richard Sherman (#2 and #6) and the other was Jason McCourty (#6 and #10). Darrelle Revis probably would have been the other one if he hadn’t torn his ACL in 2012, which looks like a fluke injury when you look at the rest of his history, as he’s missed just 3 games in his other 6 seasons combined.

In 4 of his last 5 healthy seasons, he’s graded out in the top-3 on Pro Football Focus among cornerbacks, incredible considering the volatility of the position and how difficult it’s become to be a dominant man coverage cornerback in today’s NFL. That includes a 2013 season in which he graded out #1 among cornerbacks, fueled by a first place finish in yards allowed per coverage snap, despite a poor pass rush in front of him. People still don’t throw on Revis. Another year removed from his injury, Revis will only be better in 2014. Since 2008, Revis has allowed 43.1% completion, 5.41 YPA, and 12 touchdowns, while picking off 20 passes, a QB rating allowed of 50.5. He essentially turns every quarterback who dares to throw on him into a drunken Mark Sanchez. You can’t say that about anyone else.

Richard Sherman is probably a better cornerback because of his superior ball hawking abilities, but Revis is right there as the #2 cornerback and miles ahead of everyone else. Short of acquiring Richard Sherman (which would obviously not be possible), there’s nothing more than that the Patriots could have done this off-season to upgrade the cornerback position and replace Aqib Talib than signing Revis. The Patriots now have the legitimate ability to take away one side of the field on defense, something they haven’t been able to do since Ty Law. Given that, a 1-year, 12 million dollar deal is completely reasonable. I thought Revis was worth his original 16 million dollar salary with the Buccaneers. I’m still not sure why they just let him go. But their loss is the Patriots’ gain.

Grade: A

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Atlanta Falcons re-sign DT Jonathan Babineaux

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I didn’t like the Falcons other two moves, signing Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai, but I actually really like this move. Jonathan Babineaux is going into his age 33 season and has shown signs of decline over the past couple of seasons, but he’s still graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 6 seasons, showing himself to be a rare model of consistency and maxing out as their #1 ranked defensive tackle in 2009.

The days of him being an elite player are gone and the days of him being even a solid starter could soon follow, but the price of 9 million over 3 years with only 4 million guaranteed and nothing guaranteed after 2014 is a very reasonable price to pay to bet that he can keep it up another year or two. If the Falcons are in fact switching to a base 3-4, Babineaux would fit fine as a 5-technique defensive end and, unlike Jackson and Soliai, he wouldn’t be a liability in sub packages.

Grade: A-

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Atlanta Falcons sign DT Paul Soliai

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

What’s with the Falcons committing all this money to pure run stoppers? I understand they need to improve their run defense, but they also need to add pass rushers. Not only are Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai not pass rushers, but they’re actually liabilities on passing plays. They played a combined 493 pass snaps last season and for good reason. Now the Falcons have given them each 5-year deals that have a combined total value of 58 million dollars with 25 million guaranteed. This one might be even worse than the Tyson Jackson deal. Part of that is because the max value is 8 million dollars more, though they’re both highly unlikely to ever see all that money. Part of it is because Soliai is going into his age 31 season.

Soliai, like Jackson, had a solid season this year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked defensive tackle, including 16th in run grade, as a part-time player on 526 snaps. However, he graded out as roughly a league average player in a part-time role in both 2011 and 2012 and, even in 2010, when he had another solid year, it was as a part-time player, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 12th ranked defensive tackle, including their 8th ranked in run grade. Either the Falcons think that both the Chiefs and Dolphins were originally using Jackson and Soliai incorrectly as part-time players and that they can get more out of them, or the Falcons decided $5-6.5 million yearly for part-time/base package players was a solid value. I don’t think either of those things are accurate.

Grade: C-

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Atlanta Falcons sign DE Tyson Jackson

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I wrote in my Chiefs’ off-season preview that Tyson Jackson would be lucky if he got the 3 year 12.6 million dollar deal that the Chiefs gave teammate Mike DeVito last off-season. DeVito is a very similar player, a pure base 3-4 defensive end that excels against the run, but doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, but the difference is DeVito has more of a proven track record. DeVito was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end this season as a part-time player, including 4th against the run, while Jackson was 14th and 10th respectively in a similar role. DeVito was also in the top-10 among 3-4 defensive ends in a similar role with the Jets in 2010-2012, including top-5 positional run grade finishes in 2010 and 2011. Jackson, meanwhile, graded out positively just once from 2009-2012, after being drafted 3rd overall in 2009.

Given that, it’s pretty absurd that Jackson not only matched what DeVito got, but greatly exceeded it, signing a 5 year, 25 million dollar deal with almost as much guaranteed money ($11 million) as DeVito received in total money. That’s far too much to pay for a one-dimensional player who can’t get to the quarterback, especially one who doesn’t have a proven track record. The Chiefs seemed to wake Jackson up by slashing his salary for the 2013 season, but who is to say he doesn’t coast now that he has all this guaranteed money in his pocket and revert to the bust of a former 3rd overall pick he was from 2009-2012? Thomas Dimitroff is a great GM, but this move reeks of Scott Pioli, who was recently hired as the Falcons’ assistant general manager and who reached for Jackson with the 3rd overall pick in 2009.

Grade: C-

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2014 NFL Free Agency Predictions

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

QB Michael Vick 2 years, 10 million with Jets

QB Josh McCown 2 years, 9 million with Bears

QB Josh Freeman 1 year, 2 million with Raiders

RB Ben Tate 4 years, 18 million with Titans

RB Darren McFadden 1 year, 2 million with Bengals

RB Darren Sproles 1 year, 2.5 million with Colts

RB LeGarrette Blount 3 years, 9 million with Texans

RB Andre Brown 3 years, 8 million with Giants

RB Knowshon Moreno 3 years, 12 million with Raiders

RB Maurice Jones-Drew 2 years, 8 million with Dolphins

WR Eric Decker 5 years, 45 million with Jets

WR Hakeem Nicks 2 years, 9 million with Panthers

WR Julian Edelman 4 years, 20 million with Patriots

WR Emmanuel Sanders 3 years, 11 million with Lions

WR Golden Tate 5 years, 26 million with Seahawks

WR James Jones 3 years, 13 million with Chargers

WR Andre Roberts 2 years, 6 million with Jets

WR Sidney Rice 1 year, 2.5 million with Colts

WR Ted Ginn 3 years, 9 million with Redskins

TE Jimmy Graham 5 years, 53 million with Saints

TE Jermichael Finley 1 year, 3 million with Giants

TE Brandon Pettigrew 4 years, 22 million with Jets

TE Scott Chandler 2 years, 6 million with Buccaneers

OT Eugene Monroe 5 years, 48 million with Ravens

OT Jared Veldheer 5 years, 38 million with Cardinals

OT Branden Albert 4 years, 41 million with Dolphins

OT Anthony Collins 4 years, 26 million with Buccaneers

OT Rodger Saffold 5 years, 42 million with Raiders

OT Austin Howard 3 years, 18 million with Jets

OT Zach Strief 2 years, 10 million with Dolphins

OT Michael Oher 1 year, 3 million with Panthers

G Jon Asamoah 3 years, 15 million with Falcons

G Geoff Schwartz 4 years, 16 million with Rams

G Zane Beadles 4 years, 22 million with Colts

G Travelle Wharton 2 years, 7 million with Panthers

G Willie Colon 1 year, 2 million with Vikings

G Uche Nwaneri 1 year, 2 million with Chiefs

C Alex Mack 5 years, 45 million with Browns

C Brian De La Puente 4 years, 24 million with Colts

C Evan Dietrich-Smith 3 years, 18 million with Giants

C Jonathan Goodwin 1 year, 2 million with Saints

DE Greg Hardy 6 years, 79 million with Panthers

DE Michael Johnson 5 years, 54 million with Buccaneers

DE Arthur Jones 5 years, 35 million with Redskins

DE LaMarr Houston 4 years, 24 million with Packers

DE Jared Allen 2 years, 10 million with Broncos

DE Tyson Jackson 3 years, 14 million with Chiefs

DE Willie Young 3 years, 12 million with Lions

DE Justin Tuck 3 years, 15 million with Giants

DE Corey Wootton 3 years, 12 million with Bears

DE Robert Ayers 3 years, 14 million with Jaguars

OLB LaMarr Woodley 1 year, 3 million with Falcons

OLB Shaun Phillips 1 year, 2 million with Raiders

DE Antonio Smith 2 years, 8 million with Chargers

DE Anthony Spencer 1 year, 4.5 million with Texans

DT Henry Melton 4 year, 30 million with Bears

DT Jason Hatcher 4 years, 32 million with Dolphins

DT Randy Starks 4 years, 30 million with Falcons

DT Paul Soliai 3 years, 16 million with Vikings

DT Clinton McDonald 3 years, 13 million with Seahawks

DT Jonathan Babineaux 2 years, 8 million with Falcons

DT Tony McDaniel 3 years, 11 million with Seahawks

DT Linval Joseph 5 years, 32 million with Raiders

DT BJ Raji 4 years, 24 million with Raiders

DT Earl Mitchell 2 years, 6 million with Dolphins

DT Kevin Williams 1 year, 3.5 million with Patriots

DT Vance Walker 3 years, 9 million with Buccaneers

DT Pat Sims 3 years, 9 million with Giants

OLB Brian Orakpo 5 years, 45 million with Redskins

OLB Jason Worilds 5 years, 40 million with Steelers

OLB Calvin Pace 1 year, 2 million with Jets

MLB Karlos Dansby 3 years, 17 million with Titans

MLB Brandon Spikes 2 years, 8 million with Texans

MLB Daryl Smith 3 years, 15 million with Ravens

MLB Jon Beason 3 years, 14 million with Giants

MLB Perry Riley 4 years, 20 million with Redskins

CB Captain Munnerlyn 4 years, 18 million with Panthers

CB Charles Tillman 2 years, 9 million with Buccaneers

CB Walter Thurmond 4 years, 20 million with Chargers

CB Antonio Cromartie 3 years, 14 million with Vikings

CB Tarell Brown 4 years, 18 million with 49ers

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 4 years, 40 million with Broncos

CB Vontae Davis 5 years, 49 million with Colts

CB Aqib Talib 5 years, 47 million with Redskins

CB Alterraun Verner 5 years, 52 million with Jets

CB Nolan Carroll 3 years, 8 million with Steelers

S Michael Mitchell 5 years, 24 million with Redskins

S Stevie Brown 4 years, 16 million with Giants

S Donte Whitner 3 years, 16 million with Browns

S Antoine Bethea 4 years, 24 million with Colts

S Jairus Byrd 5 years, 46 million with Falcons

S TJ Ward 5 years, 42 million with Broncos

S Malcolm Jenkins 4 years, 20 million with Eagles

S Chris Clemons 2 years, 6 million with Jets

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San Diego Chargers 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Chargers, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

No team had fewer players on my top-200 players list before the season than the San Diego Chargers, who only had one, safety Eric Weddle. However, at the end of the season, they ended up winning a playoff game and coming within a touchdown of the Broncos in San Diego. What happened? Well the primary factor was a throwback year by Philip Rivers. After posting QB ratings of 100+ for 3 straight seasons from 2008-2010, Rivers saw his QB rating drop into the 80s in both 2011 and 2012. There were rumors of injuries and age, going into his age 32 season, was also seen as a factor.

Instead, Rivers found the fountain of youth in 2013, with help from his new coaching staff and the front office. New head coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt did a fantastic job fixing Rivers and building an offense better suited to his strengths. Also, after playing for 2 years with minimal offensive supporting cast, new GM Tom Telesco (who got some Executive of the Year consideration from me) did a great job fixing the situation, without big offensive signings and with just one off-season. Drafting DJ Fluker in the first round helped, but the real steals were getting Keenan Allen (an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate) in the 3rd round getting and King Dunlap and Danny Woodhead on cheap contracts in free agency.

The results were great. Rivers posted a 105.5 QB rating that tied for his career best. He completed 69.5% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while leading the Chargers to a 2nd place finish in rate of moving the chains, only behind the Broncos. The defense was still a big problem, as they allowed opponents to move the chains at the 5th highest rate in the NFL. Eric Weddle remains their only top level player on that side of the ball. That being said, with the offense as good as it is, they have a chance to be right in the post-season mix again in 2014.

Positional Needs

Cornerback

The Chargers might have the worst cornerbacks in the NFL, a big part of the reason why they ranked 28th in rate of moving the chains against. Shareece Wright, Richard Marshall, Derek Cox, and Johnny Patrick were their top-4 cornerbacks last season. They ranked 102th, 101st, 104th, and 94th respectively out of 110 eligible cornerbacks. Cox will probably be cut, while Marshall will be a free agent this off-season. They desperately need cornerback help. They need at least one, if not two new starters at the position.

Outside Linebacker

The Chargers had just 35 sacks this season, tied for 23rd in the NFL. They also ranked 28th on Pro Football Focus’ in terms of team pass rush grade. Their lack of pass rush was way too evident in their loss in Denver to Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Melvin Ingram came back from a torn ACL late in the season, but the 2012 1st round pick still hasn’t proven anything in his career. He struggled a bit as a rookie and was clearly not 100% in 2013 because of his injury history. He’ll be back as a starter in 2014, barring any setbacks, but they’ll need someone opposite him. Dwight Freeney’s future is in limbo going into his age 34 season after missing 12 games in 2013. He could be a cap casualty, a move that would save the Chargers 3.15 million in cash and on the cap.

Defensive End

He was better as a rookie in 2012, but Kendall Reyes struggled mightily this season. The former 2nd round pick graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013. They should bring in more competition for him in case this becomes a pattern and a long-term issue.

Guard

Starting left guard Chad Rinehart is a free agent, while right guard Jeromey Clary struggled mightily, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 72nd ranked guard out of 81 eligible. The former right tackle has been struggling for years and the Chargers could cut him and save 4.55 million on the cap by cutting him. Johnnie Troutman is an internal option, but he struggled mightily in 9 starts last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 60th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. The Chargers could need at least one, if not two new starters at guard this off-season if Rinehart, a decent starter, isn’t retained.

Defensive Tackle

Nose tackle Cam Thomas is a free agent and he could be upgraded anyway. If he isn’t retained, they’ll need a new nose tackle, preferably one who can also play some 4-3 defensive tackle and 5-technique defensive end because the Chargers use a hybrid scheme and need help at those positions as well.

Middle Linebacker

Manti Te’o struggled as a rookie, though the 2013 2nd round pick will get another chance to be the starter in 2014. Donald Butler has been better in the past, but he too struggled this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 45th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He’s a free agent this off-season and if he’s not retained, he’ll need to be replaced. Adding another middle linebacker for competition purposes isn’t a bad idea.

Wide Receiver

The Chargers need wide receiver help after Keenan Allen on the depth chart. Eddie Royal could be a cap casualty, owed 4.5 million, while Malcom Floyd is going into his age 33 season and may never play again because of a career threatening neck injury. That would just leave Vincent Brown as the only functional receiver on the depth chart after Allen. Depth is needed.

Center

Nick Hardwick is still a good player, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked center, but he’s going into his age 33 season and is reportedly considering retirement. If he retires, they’ll have a gaping hole at center. Even if he doesn’t, adding a developmental center behind him isn’t a bad idea in case he’s not around much longer. He’s getting up there in age and will be a free agent next off-season.

Key Free Agents

MLB Donald Butler

A 2010 3rd round pick, Donald Butler was an above average starter on Pro Football Focus in 2011 and 2012, but he had a bad season this year, which was bad timing considering it was his contract year. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 45th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He’s also missed 23 games in 4 seasons. Both of those things could impact his market this off-season. He may have to settle for one year prove it deals.

G Chad Rinehart

A 3rd round pick in 2008, Chad Rinehart was great as a starter in Buffalo in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked guard. However, he missed most of the 2012 season with injury and had to settle for a one year deal in San Diego. He wasn’t the same in San Diego, grading out slightly below average. He remains a one year wonder and will probably be looking at short-term deals again this off-season.

DT Cam Thomas

Cam Thomas has been a valuable rotational defensive lineman over the past 3 seasons, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in two of them, but he didn’t last season and he’s also combined for 1284 snaps played over the past 3 seasons. He’s only a part-time player and he won’t command a lot of money on the open market.

CB Richard Marshall

Richard Marshall has had an up and down career, but over the past 4 seasons, he’s had one season in which he played just 4 games and two seasons in which he graded out among Pro Football Focus’ 10 worst cornerbacks. Now going into his age 30 season, off of a season in which he graded out 101st out of 110 eligible cornerbacks, he should see a fairly cold market.

WR Danario Alexander

Danario Alexander is so talented when healthy, but he’s had 7 knee surgeries in his career. He caught 113 passes for 1781 yards and 14 touchdowns in his senior season at Missouri, but went undrafted in 2010 because of knee problems. He was able to rebound eventually and make an impact in the second half of the 2012 season with the Chargers, catching 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns in 9 games, which extrapolates to 66 catches for 1170 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. However, then he tore his other ACL before this season, forcing him to miss the season and putting his career in doubt. He’s highly unlikely to get anything more than a one year deal at the minimum, if he even gets anything.

Cap Casualty Candidates

FB Le’Ron McClain

Le’Ron McClain is little used fullback who played 134 snaps and who is going into his age 30 season in 2014. The Chargers can save 2.5 million in cash and on the cap by cutting him, which makes a lot of sense considering how unnecessary he is.

CB Derek Cox

Derek Cox was a bust of a free agent signing as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th worst ranked cornerback, including 4th worst ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade. Fortunately, his contract was structured in a way that they can get out of the rest of the 13.1 million over 3 years left on his contract and actually save cap space in the short term. They’d save about 1.625 million in cap space by cutting him.

G Jeromey Clary

Jeromey Clary struggled for years at right tackle so they moved him to right guard. It didn’t help as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 72nd ranked guard out of 81 eligible. They can save 4.55 million on the cap by cutting him, which seems like a no brainer. That’s way too much to pay for a mediocre guard who is going into his age 31 season.

OLB Larry English

Larry English has been a massive bust as a 2009 1st round pick, totaling 789 snaps played from 2010-2013 combined. The Chargers can save 1.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go.

WR Eddie Royal

Eddie Royal was the Chargers’ #2 wide receiver in terms of receiving yardage, catching 47 passes for 631 yards and 8 touchdowns. However, the Chargers will save 4.5 million on the cap and in cash by cutting him, which might be too tempting for the Chargers considering Royal has exceeded 345 yards in just half of his pro seasons.

OLB Jarret Johnson

Jarret Johnson is a two-down edge player who doesn’t provide much pass rush and he’s going into his age 33 season. The Chargers can save 4 million in cash and 2.5 million in cap space cutting him this off-season.

OLB Dwight Freeney

Dwight Freeney is a declining player going into his age 34 season who missed 12 games with injury last season. They might not find him to be worth the 3.15 million dollars in salary the Chargers owe him. They can save all of that on the cap by cutting him.

WR Malcom Floyd

The Chargers would endure a cap hit by cutting Floyd now, but they could save some cap space in the short-term by making him a post-June 1st cut. They may do that because Floyd is going into his age 33 season and attempting to recover from a career threatening neck injury. He also may just retire.

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