Month: April 2014

New York Jets sign RB Chris Johnson

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jets, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Chris Johnson hasn’t been the same player since 2009, his 2000 yard season, though few people are able to repeat that kind of season. He was still an above average starting running back and an incredibly durable one at that, not missing a game since his rookie year in 2008 and totaling over 250 carries in all 6 of his professional seasons. However, last year he significantly declined in efficiency, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, including just 1.8 yards per carry after contact and ranked 3rd worst in the NFL in elusive rating. He was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked running back out of 55 eligible. That’s why the Titans cut him, instead of paying him a large salary.

He still was the highest paid running back on the open market this off-season, getting 4 million dollars yearly in this deal, while the 2nd highest paid running back got 3.5 million dollars yearly. This deal is worth a total of 8 million dollars (with an extra million dollars available through incentive) with 4 million over 1 year guaranteed (3 million dollars signing bonus and 1 million dollars base salary). I don’t think he’s quite worth that much money.

He should become more efficient this season as he’ll see a smaller workload, splitting carries with power back Chris Ivory (probably in the neighborhood of 180-220 carries). He could also be healthier after dealing with significant knee problems all last season. However, he’s also going into his age 29 season with 2014 career touches so he’s not getting any better any time soon. Injury problems could become commonplace for him and there’s already some concern about a potentially arthritic knee. He’s on the decline and this is an overpay.

Grade: C+

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Chicago Bears sign C Brian De La Puente

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bears, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This is one of the biggest bargains of free agency. Brian De La Puente has been a starter in New Orleans for 3 years since Jonathan Goodwin left following the 2010 season. In those 3 seasons, De La Puente has been an above average starting center, grading out 12th, 2nd, and 16th among centers on Pro Football Focus in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. He’s also only going into his age 29 season. Despite that, the Bears are getting him for a dollar over the league minimum (which gives them to option to give him an extension at any time one can be agreed to). I have a hard time believing the Saints didn’t want to bring him back at this price.

The Bears don’t necessarily need a center because Roberto Garza is coming off of a solid season, but Garza has been inconsistent in the past, is going into his age 35 season, and has a salary that is fairly inexpensive. De La Puente also has an inexpensive salary so the Bears essentially have two starting centers for the price of one with the ability to use De La Puente to compete with Garza or to use Garza, a former guard, as an interior line reserve and 6th offensive lineman. De La Puente also reunites with talented and well respected Bears offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer, who he worked with in New Orleans when he was the offensive line coach from 2009-2012. It’s a great move.

Grade: A

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Denver Broncos sign C Will Montgomery

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This is another steal for the Broncos. I don’t know why Will Montgomery was cut by the Redskins, owed just 1.925 million dollars for the 2014 season. Since moving to be the Redskins’ starting center in 2011, Montgomery has started all 48 games and has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th, 5th, and 15th ranked center in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. He’s an above average starting center, even going into his age 31 season. I guess new Redskins’ head coach Jay Gruden was not a fan, but it’ll end up being his loss.

The Redskins’ loss is the Broncos’ gain as they add a much needed starter on the offensive line. Montgomery can slot in at center, his best position, and move Manny Ramirez, who broke out as the Broncos’ starting center last season, to guard. Montgomery can also move to guard himself. Either way, he helps replace the departed Zane Beadles at a much cheaper price. Beadles got 30 million over 5 years from the Jaguars. Montgomery’s deal is worth 1.575 million over 1 season. They got a bargain so late in free agency.

Grade: A

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Cleveland Browns re-sign C Alex Mack

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This deal came about in a roundabout fashion. The Browns started the situation off by using the transition tag on Mack, which would have paid him roughly 10 million dollars for the 2014 season if he had signed it. That 10 million dollar sum was the average of the top-10 offensive linemen in the league. You almost never see an interior offensive lineman, especially a center, get any tag of any sort, transition, franchise etc. The reason for that is that interior offensive lineman are less valuable in the NFL than offensive tackles, but offensive tackles’ salaries are still taken into account when determining the value of the tag. A 10 million dollar salary, even if only for one year, would have made Mack, by the far highest paid center in the NFL in terms of average annual salary (Ryan Kalil at 8.186 million is 2nd)

Mack never signed the transition tag, but even an unsigned transition tag gave the Browns the benefit of being able to match any contract Mack got offered on the open market. As a result, Mack draw little to no interest for most of the off-season because the Browns seemed very serious about getting Mack no matter the cost and most teams don’t have the cap space to dish out the kind of money it would have taken for the Browns, who are loaded with cap space and in desperate need of difference makers, not to match.

That was until the Jaguars came along and gave him a 5 year deal worth 42 million maximum. The Jaguars, like the Browns, have a ton of cap space and a huge need for talent, so it made sense, but ultimately the Browns still matched and now have Mack under contract long-term. The Jaguars structured the contract very interestingly and the Browns are now bound to the structure by virtue of matching it. Mack will get 26 million guaranteed over the first 3 years of the deal, unless he opts out before the 3rd year. If he does opt out, it will just be a 2-year, 18 million dollar deal and the Browns won’t have the option to tag him again if he does that. At that point, he can choose to go anywhere.

The deal is still incredibly rich for a center as the 8.4 million dollar average annual salary of the deal is still the highest in the NFL among centers and he’ll make 10 million in the first year of the deal. However, it’s not a bad deal. Mack is arguably the best center in the NFL. He’s graded out as a top-10 center in each of his 5 seasons in the NFL since being drafted in the first round by the Browns in 2009. Only Chris Myers has also been in the top-10 in centers in all 5 of those seasons. Mack is also at the peak of his career, going into his age 29 season. Also, the Browns have a ton of cap space to burn and a desperate need for talent. This deal won’t prevent the Browns from signing guys like Joe Haden, Jordan Cameron, and Josh Gordon long-term.

Grade: B-

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Houston Texans sign RB Andre Brown

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Texans, Uncategorized

There haven’t been any atrocious deals given out to running backs this off-season, but I have a feeling a lot of teams around the league who signed running backs this off-season are kicking themselves now that they see that the Texans got Andre Brown for the veteran’s minimum. Andre Brown has his share of issues. He’s bounced around the league and has a massive injury history so he’s played 21 games since being drafted in the 4th round in 2009 and has 246 touches going into his age 28 season. He also averaged just 3.5 yards per carry last season and has a career average of 4.1 yards per carry.

That being said, he’s strong on passing downs as both a protector and a pass catcher and he’s a bruising north-south back who always picks up some sort of yardage and who is great around the goal line. He doesn’t have much explosiveness, but he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in 2012. He doesn’t have that many more issues than running backs who signed multi-year deals worth multi-million dollars this off-season.

Donald Brown, Ben Tate, and Rashad Jennings have never been successful starting running backs. Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew have had their explosiveness sapped by injury over the past few seasons. Knowshon Moreno has the most recent productive season of the bunch, but that was largely due to the presence of the Broncos’ offensive supporting cast. Andre Brown will serve very well as a needed backup for Arian Foster, who is coming off of a major injury, and at a very reasonable rate.

Grade: A

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San Diego Chargers sign RB Donald Brown

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I don’t really have much of an issue with the money here. Brown is getting 10.5 million over 3 years with 4 million over 1 year guaranteed. That compares pretty well with other contracts given to running backs this off-season,  including Darren McFadden (1 year, 4 million), Joique Bell (3 years, 9.3 million), Maurice Jones-Drew (3 years, 7.5 million), Ben Tate (2 years, 7 million), Knowshon Moreno (1 year, 3 million), LeGarrette Blount (2 years, 3.85 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 10 million) this off-season.

It’s a slight overpay. Donald Brown has never had more than 150 touches in a season since being drafted in the 1st round in 2009. He averages 4.3 yards per carry for his career and he’s a liability on passing downs as he doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher or pass protector. He had a strong contract year, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, catching 27 passes for 214 yards and scoring a total of 7 times. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked running back and ranked 1st in elusive rating.

That being said, that was on only 102 carries and 379 total snaps and, given his history, it’s a major leap to suggest he could be a consistently successful lead back. 3.5 million dollars yearly doesn’t seem like a lot of money, but he’s the only running back to get that much money annually on a 3+ year deal this off-season. No running back got a bigger contract in terms of top maximum base salary. It’s a small overpay, but, again, the money isn’t really a big issue here.

The big issue is why the Chargers would sign him when they already have Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead. I know Mathews is injury prone, but there are cheaper insurance policies. The Chargers entered this off-season with one of the worst defenses in the NFL and very little cap space. To spend a big chunk of that cap space adding an excess running back is just irresponsible. They couldn’t afford this kind of luxury. They would have been much better off signing someone like Andre Brown for much cheaper.

Grade: C

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Jacksonville Jaguars trade QB Blaine Gabbert to San Francisco 49ers

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Jaguars, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Trade for Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert was awful in 3 seasons with the Jaguars since being taken with the 10th overall pick in 2011, proving to be one of the biggest draft busts over the past 5 or so years. He completed 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions in those 3 seasons, a quarterback rating of 66.4. He made 27 starts over those 3 seasons and won 5 of them, going 5-22. The Jaguars were not going to keep him around going into 2014 so credit them for somehow getting a 6th round pick for him.

Grade: A

Trade for 49ers: While it was a good deal for the Jaguars somehow getting something for Gabbert, it wasn’t necessarily a bad deal for the 49ers trading for him. If it made sense for any team trading for him, they are that team. They desperately needed a backup quarterback behind Colin Kaepernick with Colt McCoy gone and McLeod Bethel-Thompson being the only other quarterback on the roster besides Kaepernick before this trade.

If anyone can get the talent out of Gabbert that got him taken 10th overall, it’s Jim Harbaugh, a known quarterback whispered. Harbaugh is known for having a history with Gabbert, as he recruited him heavily when he was the head coach at Stanford (he eventually went to Missouri) and the 49ers heavily considered drafting him 7th overall in Harbaugh’s first draft in 2011, eventually opting to go with his Missouri teammate Aldon Smith (it was a much smarter move).

The 49ers also had so many picks coming into this draft so losing a 6th round pick, worst case scenario, won’t hurt them. As bad as Gabbert is, they were unlikely to find a better backup quarterback than him in the 6th round. His 2 million dollar salary is pretty expensive for him, but they can probably restructure his contract fairly easily if he does show enough to make their roster. It’s not a terrible deal.

Grade: B

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Oakland Raiders sign RB Maurice Jones-Drew

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

Maurice Jones-Drew has seen a steep fall from his 2011 season, in which he led the NFL with 1606 rushing yards. That season, he averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 343 carries, added 43 catches for 374 yards and scored 11 times. He did all of that on an otherwise abysmal offense during Blaine Gabbert’s rookie year, which makes it all the more impressive. That off-season, he demanded a contract that would have paid him among the best running backs in the NFL, holding out almost into the season when the Jaguars didn’t meet his demands.

It turns out that not paying him was one of the best moves the Jaguars have made over the past 5 years. After a 1084 touch workload from 2009-2011, MJD cracked in 2012, managing just 84 carries over 6 years, though he did average 4.8 yards per carry. 2013 was arguably worse as he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on 234 carries, scored just 5 times on 277 touches, and had just 5 touches go for 20+ yards. One a candidate to be the highest paid running back in the NFL on his next contract, MJD was met with a frigid market as a free agent going into his age 29 season, signing this 3 year, 7.5 million dollar deal with the Raiders that has just 2.5 million over 1 year guaranteed.

MJD’s rough 2013 season could be largely the result of the complete lack of offensive talent, and thus running room, around him in Jacksonville. However, he averaged just 2.2 yards after contact, broke just 26 tackles, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst running back in terms of pure running grade. Now going into his age 29 season with 2139 career touches, he’s unlikely to get more explosive going into 2014.

He’ll be an asset for the Raiders in passing downs because he still has strong pass catching and pass blocking skills, catching 43 passes and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in both pass catching grade and pass blocking grade, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd best running back in pass blocking grade. He’s probably a worse pure runner than Darren McFadden, but he’ll still contribute for the Raiders in some form.

He’ll make up an underwhelming running back tandem with McFadden as both running backs have lost a great deal of explosiveness over the past 2 seasons due to injury, but this is a fairly inexpensive deal. It’s a solid value when you compare it to other deals received by running backs this off-season, including Darren McFadden (1 year, 4 million), Joique Bell (3 years, 9.3 million), Donald Brown (3 years, 10.5 million), Ben Tate (2 years, 7 million), Knowshon Moreno (1 year, 3 million), LeGarrette Blount (2 years, 3.85 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 14 million) this off-season.

Grade: B+

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade C Jeremy Zuttah to the Baltimore Ravens

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

Trade for Ravens: The Ravens desperately needed a new center as Gino Gradkowski struggled mightily in his first season as a starter in place of the retired Matt Birk. The 2012 4th round pick graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked center last season. Jeremy Zuttah is not a great center, grading out 22nd ranked center out of 35 eligible last season and 24th out of 36 eligible in 2012, but he’s a massive upgrade over Gradkowski.

The issue worth discussing here is not in the compensation sent to the Buccaneers as a 5th round pick is not much. The Ravens would have had trouble finding a center even this good in the 5th round. The issue worth discussing is how much the Ravens are paying him. They’re not just getting a starting center for a 5th round pick as they had to sign him to a 5-year, 18 million dollar deal. Zuttah originally had 8.75 million over 2 years left on his deal, but none of that was guaranteed.

The Ravens have cut his salary over the next 2 seasons to a total of 7.5 million, but guaranteed 6.5 million of that so he’s essentially getting a 2-year, 7.5 million dollar deal (or a 1-year, 6.5 million dollar deal) guaranteed. The Ravens will then have “options” for him at 3.5 million dollars apiece for the 2016, 2017, and 2018 seasons. It’s a small overpay for a mediocre center, but it is a reasonable deal for the Ravens in their current situation.

Grade: B

Trade for Buccaneers: Zuttah was overpaid at 4.5 million for 2014 and 4.25 million for 2015, so I understand why the Buccaneers would want to move on from him and from that angle, credit them for getting a 5th round pick, rather than cutting him outright, which is easier said than done. However, this move would have made more sense earlier in free agency when there were still options to replace Zuttah on the open market. Now the Buccaneers seem stuck with a combination of Jamon Meredith and Patrick Omameh and maybe a rookie at right guard now. It’s still a decent move though. There’s no real winner in this trade.

Grade: B

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Oakland Raiders re-sign DT Pat Sims

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

The Raiders let a number of good, young players go this off-season, letting LaMarr Houston, Vance Walker, and Jared Veldheer leave and replacing them with aging veterans like Antonio Smith, Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, and Donald Penn. It’s an odd strategy and use of cap space. That being said, they’re making a great move here bringing back Pat Sims on a cheap, one year deal after he, for some reason, generated very little interest on the open market.

Sims was a 3rd round pick by the Bengals in 2008 and was a largely irrelevant backup in Cincinnati for 5 years before last season, playing a combined 481 snaps in 2011 and 2012. He broke out in Oakland last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle last season on 694 snaps, excelling against the run and grading out above average as both a pass rusher and a run stopper. He’s still just a one year wonder at this point, which is part of the reason why he saw little interest on the open market, but this is still a steal for the Raiders, bringing him back for 2 million over 1 year. He’s only going into his age 29 season so he’s still relatively young, which is a positive contrast from most of the moves the Raiders have made this off-season.

Grade: A

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