Oakland Raiders (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

I don’t understand this line. These two teams are essentially equal in my eyes, but the Jets are still favored by 5.5 points. This line should be about 3, the standard amount given for homefield advantage. The Raiders are going to be bad again, but the Jets should be equally bad. Their 8-8 record last season was not indicative of how bad of a team they were. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games.

The Jets should have better turnover luck this season, after recovering a league worst 30.30% of fumbles, and they add Eric Decker and Chris Johnson, but this is still one of the least talent teams in the NFL. Decker is just one guy. Johnson isn’t nearly the player he used to be. Also, their secondary is in shambles to start the season thanks to injuries, so much so that converted safety Antonio Allen is going to play a significant role at cornerback this week.

I wish this line was at 6, instead of 5.5, not just because teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover about a quarter of the time as 6+ point favorites, but also to give us protection from something like a 19-13 Jets win. I also don’t love taking a bad Raider team on the road on the East Coast at a 1 PM start. However, they should be the right side. There’s just too much line value with them because people don’t seem to realize how bad the Jets are going to be this season.

Update: The line moved to 6.5 before game time. I’m moving this up to medium confidence.

New York Jets 20 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Oakland +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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