New England Patriots (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

This is the overreaction line of the week. A week ago, most people had the Patriots as one of the top few teams in the NFL and had the Vikings as mediocre at best. The Vikings looked good blowing out a Rams team that had to turn to their 3^rd string quarterback mid-game and the Patriots struggles in Miami against a capable Dolphins team, but I don’t think that should cause everyone to throw out all their pre-season evaluations.

Remember, the Patriots led 20-10 at the half and might have been able to hold on for the victory if Rob Gronkowski had been able to play more in the second half. His conditioning should be better now in his 2^nd game back from that torn ACL. The Patriots are still a healthier and more talented team than last season and the Vikings still have an underwhelming roster on paper. There’s no reason this line should only be at 3 in favor of Patriots. They were 4.5 point favorites in Miami last week, while the Vikings were 3 point underdogs in St. Louis. This line would have been at least 6 last week, if not more.

Tom Brady and the Patriots thrive on everyone underestimating and discounting them. Tom Brady is 30-15 ATS in his career off of a loss. They’re also in the better spot here with no distractions on the horizon, as they host Oakland next. Road favorites are 44-32 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, the Vikings have to go to New Orleans next week, which is another very tough game. They could easily be double digit underdogs there. Teams are 34-52 ATS since 2002 as home dogs before being double digit underdogs and 17-40 ATS before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be double digit favorites.

New England Patriots 27 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: New England -3

Confidence: Medium

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