San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)
The Bills are 2-0 and they’ve been very good at home over the past two seasons, going 7-1 ATS in the city of Buffalo since the start of the 2013 season and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win over the Seahawks (teams are 39-56 ATS as road underdogs after a win as 6+ point home underdogs) and now have to travel to the East Coast for a 1 PM ET start. However, I don’t agree with the Bills being favorites here, even as just 2.5 point favorites.
The Bills are a fraudulent 2-0. They’re moving the chains at a 62.00% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents (30th in NFL in differential), as their opponents have picked up 24 more first downs than they have in the last 2 games combined. The Chargers, meanwhile, have moved the chains at a 75.81% rate, as opposed to 74.55%, roughly the same as last season when they made the playoffs at 9-7 and finished 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.26% rate, while allowing opponents to move them at a 75.36% rate.
The Chargers are also in the better spot. The Bills have to travel to Houston next week, while the Chargers just have to deal with Jacksonville in San Diego. Houston isn’t an incredible opponent, but the Bills will still be underdogs, while the Chargers will be heavy favorites. Teams are 104-68 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 67-97 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road underdogs.
Combining the two, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, non-divisional road underdogs are 31-19 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites when their opponent will next be non-divisional road underdogs. I’m not that confident, but the Chargers should be the right side.
San Diego Chargers 24 Buffalo Bills 20 Upset Pick +120
Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5
Confidence: Low
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Charger looked good against Seahawks because the Seahawks did things that losers do penalties, and for once the Chargers didn’t over do what losers do. The team that has the most penalties will lose because that’s what losers do! Chargers win 38-27 because Charger are a better passing team and the league is designed to favor passing.
Passing teams punt with 4th and 10 or 4th and 20, it’s not that much different then punting with 4th and one, you still punt. Point being, you give yourself three tries to get a first down and the odds of doing it passing are better. That my guess. Running to set up the pass is old school. Get with it.
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Charger looked good against Seahawks because the Seahawks did things that losers do penalties, and for once the Chargers didn’t over do what losers do. The team that has the most penalties will lose because that’s what losers do! Chargers win 38-27 because Charger are a better passing team and the league is designed to favor passing.
Passing teams punt with 4th and 10 or 4th and 20, it’s not that much different then punting with 4th and one, you still punt. Point being, you give yourself three tries to get a first down and the odds of doing it passing are better. That my guess. Running to set up the pass is old school. Get with it.
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