New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Saints’ road struggles are well documented and they’ve been especially bad over the past two seasons. Just this season, they’ve already lost in Atlanta and Cleveland as road favorites. The Saints are 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season, as opposed to 8-0-1 ATS at home and I’ve had a good deal of success picking their games almost solely taking them at home and going against them on the road against the spread.

However, it seems like this line is already compensating for that, maybe overcompensating, as the Saints are mere 3 point favorites in Dallas. The Saints are a lot better than their record suggests as they could easily be 3-0. They have a positive point differential and they rank 4^th in rate of moving the chains differential on the strength of a dominant home offensive performance last week in which they scored 3 touchdowns on 7 drives (excluding a 14 play, 70 yard drive to end the game) and picked up 27 first downs in the process. The Saints are moving the chains at an 83.76% rate on the season, as opposed to 76.92% for their opponents, a differential of 6.86% that ranks 4^th in the NFL and is comparable to their 8.12% differential from last season, which ranked 2nd. That’s despite playing 2 of 3 games on the road.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 2-1, but they’ve played 3 teams (San Francisco, Tennessee, St. Louis) that are a combined 3-6 and they could have easily lost last week in St. Louis. Their offense looks good, moving the chains at a 78.00% rate, but their opponents are moving the chains at a 76.47% rate. I know that’s actually better than the Saints defense, but it’s only three games in and the Saints are far more talented on that side of the ball so I don’t expect that to be that way at the end of the season and the Cowboys’ offense isn’t close to the Saints’ offense.

The Saints are also in a good spot before a home game against Tampa Bay. Teams are 97-74 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites, which they very well good be next week. At the end of the day, I picked the Saints to win the Super Bowl and the Cowboys to finish 4-12 at the beginning of the season. Those might both end up being wrong, but I don’t see the Saints starting 1-3, while the Cowboys start 3-1 so as long as this line is at 3, I’m comfortable taking New Orleans, even on the road.

New Orleans Saints 34 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Low

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