St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)
This is one of two games this week that I have no idea on. Unlike San Francisco/Kansas City, where I have strong arguments for each side, I don’t have a strong argument for either side here. There are no situational trends in play here. I don’t think we’re getting significant line value with either side. I’m going to take the Rams here just because I think the Eagles are overrated. Their offensive line has been a mess this season, without Jason Kelce and Evan Mathis, leading to LeSean McCoy averaging 2.74 yards per carry.
The Eagles are moving the chains at a mere 69.23% rate, as opposed to 71.63% for their opponents, a differential of -2.40%, 22nd in the NFL. The Rams aren’t good either, ranking 27th in the NFL at -5.72%. They move the chains at a 73.03%, as opposed to 78.75% for their opponents, through 3 games. However, I’m taking them on principle because I believe the Eagles are overrated. I’m also fading the public by doing that.
Philadelphia Eagles 19 St. Louis Rams 13
Pick against spread: St. Louis +6.5
Confidence: None
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The Eagles are not over-rated. The Eagles defense is improving from week to week. Their Special Teams is one of the better squads in the NFC. And offensiviely, they had one bad game because of a decimated offensive line that had now 2 new players who will get better from week to week. Their only loss to S.F, was a game they almost won, on the road, against a good 49er team desperate for a win. They beat a good Colts team on the road during Monday Night Football as well. They score points and know how to win. Looking vicariously at just stats leads to poor handicapping.
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Is that why I’m 40-21-1 against the spread this season?
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