St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1)
The Cardinals are the most overrated team in the NFL. Despite having the NFL’s best record at 7-1, the Cardinals rank just 14th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.65% rate, as opposed to 71.71% for their opponents, a differential of 0.94%. However, the Rams aren’t very good either, moving the chains at a 71.19% rate, as opposed to 75.52% for their opponents, a differential of -3.72% that ranks 26th in the NFL. This line is also at 7 for two reasons. One, the Rams are a little overrated as well. Two, the odds makers know Arizona isn’t as good as their record and doesn’t want to give sharp bettors +10. The public is all over Arizona, because they’re caught up in records, and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense.
The Rams are also in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, the Rams are coming off of an emotional win over the 49ers and might not be at 100% or have nearly the focus they would if they had lost. Teams are 48-45 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road win, as opposed to 93-50 ATS for road underdogs off of a road win. Going off that, teams are 26-44 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a straight up win as double digit underdogs. I’m taking the Rams out of principle, but I’m not confident.
Update: It was brought to my attention that the Rams are in their 3rd straight road game instead of their 2nd. This doesn’t hurt them, as teams in their 3rd or 3 road games are 60-64 ATS, but it doesn’t help them. This doesn’t change my pick because I’m still fading the public and the overrated Cardinals out of principle, but it makes me even less confident about the Rams.
Arizona Cardinals 19 St. Louis Rams 13
Pick against the spread: St. Louis +7
Confidence: None
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Football Fan Spot 
Love your work as always mentioned. But the Rams are on their 3rd consecutive road game. Does this change your logic at all? I would presume teams being on their 3rd of 3 road games would be in a bad spot.
LikeLike
Thanks
LikeLike