What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	NO	240	30	15	29	18	3	0	80.60%
2	GB	187	32	14	31	8	3	2	79.06%
3	DEN	209	36	11	44	8	4	0	78.53%
4	IND	235	32	20	36	15	4	1	77.84%
5	KC	190	24	14	40	8	2	0	76.98%
6	PIT	230	27	18	43	13	5	0	76.49%
7	SEA	186	25	19	35	9	2	1	76.17%
8	BAL	218	28	22	35	14	6	0	76.16%
9	CHI	200	22	9	34	18	9	0	76.03%
10	DAL	216	28	20	36	18	2	1	76.01%
11	NE	199	26	25	39	6	4	0	75.25%
12	SD	177	23	14	40	9	3	0	75.19%
13	ATL	185	24	14	38	14	6	1	74.11%
14	MIA	198	21	23	32	14	8	0	73.99%
15	WAS	187	22	16	40	17	4	0	73.08%
16	NYG	193	24	9	49	16	6	0	73.06%
17	SF	180	19	20	41	10	4	0	72.63%
18	ARZ	180	21	18	50	7	1	0	72.56%
19	CAR	206	20	19	48	17	3	0	72.20%
20	PHI	201	24	17	46	21	3	0	72.12%
21	DET	172	19	22	40	12	3	0	71.27%
22	STL	169	17	13	44	16	4	0	70.72%
23	CLE	179	22	18	52	8	6	0	70.53%
24	TB	166	18	13	39	19	5	1	70.50%
25	HOU	167	19	18	44	14	3	0	70.19%
26	CIN	169	21	21	44	14	3	0	69.85%
27	NYJ	190	18	19	50	18	6	0	69.10%
28	MIN	171	15	19	50	12	4	0	68.63%
29	TEN	152	16	13	49	13	4	2	67.47%
30	JAX	182	18	15	57	22	6	0	66.67%
31	BUF	156	18	21	53	14	4	1	65.17%
32	OAK	140	16	11	55	19	2	0	64.20%

 

Defense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	BUF	180	17	20	51	19	3	0	67.93%
2	DET	168	14	15	49	14	4	1	68.68%
3	PHI	184	23	14	57	16	6	0	69.00%
4	MIA	162	18	16	39	19	6	0	69.23%
5	CLE	187	19	16	51	17	6	1	69.36%
6	KC	171	14	19	44	8	7	0	70.34%
7	ARZ	179	19	13	46	19	4	0	70.71%
8	DEN	185	23	15	53	12	4	1	70.99%
9	BAL	191	20	18	46	15	5	1	71.28%
10	IND	179	24	11	50	13	7	0	71.48%
11	MIN	172	22	14	48	12	3	0	71.59%
12	SEA	174	19	16	42	12	3	1	72.28%
13	WAS	174	24	13	51	8	3	0	72.53%
14	DAL	183	23	11	44	17	6	0	72.54%
15	NYJ	185	29	18	54	7	1	0	72.79%
16	JAX	205	26	21	48	11	5	1	72.87%
17	NE	199	21	18	35	18	9	0	73.33%
18	HOU	197	23	14	42	21	3	0	73.33%
19	PIT	203	24	23	44	13	1	1	73.46%
20	SF	172	22	9	42	16	2	0	73.76%
21	CIN	211	22	22	38	14	5	1	74.44%
22	STL	183	22	17	38	11	2	0	75.09%
23	NYG	191	27	18	36	16	2	0	75.17%
24	TEN	209	24	19	42	11	4	0	75.40%
25	SD	180	23	12	37	9	7	1	75.46%
26	OAK	195	26	21	38	8	4	0	75.68%
27	ATL	200	25	22	33	16	1	0	75.76%
28	NO	188	23	17	38	10	1	1	75.90%
29	TB	209	27	26	34	12	1	0	76.38%
30	GB	209	22	12	30	18	10	0	76.74%
31	CHI	187	28	23	25	13	4	0	76.79%
32	CAR	218	32	17	38	16	3	0	77.16%

 

Overall

1	DEN	7.54%
2	KC	6.64%
3	IND	6.36%
4	BAL	4.88%
5	MIA	4.76%
6	NO	4.70%
7	SEA	3.89%
8	DAL	3.48%
9	PHI	3.12%
10	PIT	3.03%
11	DET	2.59%
12	GB	2.32%
13	NE	1.92%
14	ARZ	1.85%
15	CLE	1.17%
16	WAS	0.55%
17	SD	-0.28%
18	CHI	-0.76%
19	SF	-1.14%
20	ATL	-1.64%
21	NYG	-2.11%
22	BUF	-2.76%
23	MIN	-2.95%
24	HOU	-3.14%
25	NYJ	-3.69%
26	STL	-4.37%
27	CIN	-4.59%
28	CAR	-4.96%
29	TB	-5.88%
30	JAX	-6.20%
31	TEN	-7.93%
32	OAK	-11.49%

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