Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-7)
The Steelers fell flat on the road in New York last week, losing to the previously 1-win Jets 20-13. That was a surprise for a lot of people, but the Steelers have had a lot of recent struggles as non-divisional road favorites. They are 7-19 ATS since 2007 (when Mike Tomlin took over) as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-14 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of a field goal or more. They are once again in that situation here as 6 point road favorites in Tennessee. However, they are coming off of a loss, which is a different dynamic as the Steelers are 3-3 ATS as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss. It’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely worth noting. It’s also worth noting that this is their first time as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss as non-divisional road favorites in that time period.
The Titans are also really bad so this line might not be high enough. The Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 67.47% rate, as opposed to 75.40% for their opponents, a differential of -7.93%. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank 10th, moving the chains at a 76.49% rate, as opposed to 73.46% for their opponents, a differential of 3.03%. They also have another tough game on the horizon in Philadelphia, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 22-46 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2012. I’m still taking the Titans out of principle, especially with the public all over Pittsburgh, but I’m not confident at all.
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tennessee Titans 20
Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6
Confidence: None
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