Detroit Lions (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)
The Cardinals have the NFL’s best record at 8-1, but they’re also the most overrated team in the NFL I believe. They rank just 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.56% rate, as opposed to 70.71% for their opponents, a differential of 1.85%. They’ve been way too reliant on a +12 turnover margin this season, powered by a 68.75% rate of recovering fumbles (1st in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +3 return touchdown margin.
Meanwhile, the Lions are the better team, ranking 11th in that aspect. They move the chains at a 71.27% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 2.59%. On top of that, while they are getting healthier with Calvin Johnson coming back from injury to give this offense a boost, the Cardinals just lost their starting quarterback Carson Palmer for the season. Palmer was playing well before going down, completing 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The Cardinals have had some success in the games that backup Drew Stanton has started, but not because of him as he’s completed 49.5% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. The Cardinals shouldn’t be favored here, even if it’s only by a point.
The Cardinals are also going into their toughest game of the season next week as they head to Seattle. Non-divisional home favorites are 86-106 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. The Lions have a tough game in New England next week, but teams are actually 96-70 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on Detroit is because the Cardinals have been tough at home recently, going 27-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. The Lions should be the right side and win straight up.
Detroit Lions 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +105
Pick against the spread: Detroit +1
Confidence: Low
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Football Fan Spot 
You need to recheck your game and quit being a Cards hater…..We won ,,Get used to it!!
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The insinuation that I do this just to hate on the Cardinals is pretty absurd. There’s no value in doing that. I’m doing this to make money. I follow a fairly formulaic process for picking all games. I haven’t done a great job on Cardinal games this season so it’s possible there’s something they’re doing that is causing them to slip through the cracks, but considering I’m 99-60 against the spread on the season overall I have no reason to change anything about my process.
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