Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense to do so here. Yes, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week, but that doesn’t completely erase everything they’ve accomplished this season and all the times they proved they were a legitimate contender. The Broncos lost to the Rams two weeks ago and that didn’t erase all their accomplishments either. Fluky things happen in the NFL and the Chiefs were undoubtedly caught off guard last week after a win over the Seahawks with a game against the Broncos on deck. Teams are actually 57-41 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss as road favorites, including 5-1 ATS off of a loss as road favorites of a touchdown or more.
Prior to last week, the Chiefs beat the Seahawks, as I mentioned. They went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. On the season, the Chiefs still rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 76.35% rate, as opposed to 71.47% for their opponents, a differential of 4.87%.
The Broncos still lead the league, moving the chains at a 78.80% rate, as opposed to 71.83% for their opponents, a differential of 6.96%, but no one, not even them, deserves to be favored over the Chiefs in Kansas City. The wrong team is favored here. The Broncos haven’t exactly looked good on the road this season anyway, losing in St. Louis, Seattle, and New England and needing a late pick six to cover over the Jets. Their only clean cover on the road was in Oakland. The Chiefs should be the right side. Don’t worry about the Chiefs losing Eric Berry. He hadn’t been playing that well this season and the Chiefs could give 110% this week to honor Berry. I wish Berry the best as he faces a possible lymphoma diagnosis.
Kansas City Chiefs 24 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +110
Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2