Month: November 2014

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Steelers, Titans, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-7)

The Steelers fell flat on the road in New York last week, losing to the previously 1-win Jets 20-13. That was a surprise for a lot of people, but the Steelers have had a lot of recent struggles as non-divisional road favorites. They are 7-19 ATS since 2007 (when Mike Tomlin took over) as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-14 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of a field goal or more. They are once again in that situation here as 6 point road favorites in Tennessee. However, they are coming off of a loss, which is a different dynamic as the Steelers are 3-3 ATS as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss. It’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely worth noting. It’s also worth noting that this is their first time as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss as non-divisional road favorites in that time period.

The Titans are also really bad so this line might not be high enough. The Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 67.47% rate, as opposed to 75.40% for their opponents, a differential of -7.93%. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank 10th, moving the chains at a 76.49% rate, as opposed to 73.46% for their opponents, a differential of 3.03%. They also have another tough game on the horizon in Philadelphia, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 22-46 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2012. I’m still taking the Titans out of principle, especially with the public all over Pittsburgh, but I’m not confident at all.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

The Patriots are usually an auto-bet as a small favorite or an underdog, as Tom Brady is 45-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points. However, the usual conditions that accompany the Patriots being in this situation are not in play. They aren’t coming off a loss. They’re not playing a team with a better record than them. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been that good recently, going 4-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Even in situations where they are underdogs or small favorites on the road, they are 3-4 ATS on the road in that time period.

On the flip side, the Colts have been great at home recently, going 14-6 ATS at home since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano came in before the 2012 season. The Patriots are in a good spot as they will be home favorites next week, but the Colts are also in a good spot with a much easier game against the Jaguars on deck. Teams are 109-74 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites, while teams are teams are 98-79 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites.

The Colts are the better team in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.84% rate, as opposed to 71.48% for their opponents, a differential of 6.36% that ranks 3rd in the NFL, while the Patriots rank 13th, moving the chains at a 75.25% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents, a differential of 1.92%. However, the Patriots have been significantly better moving the chains over the past 5 games since Rob Gronkowski has returned to form, moving the chains at an 80.43% rate, as opposed to 66.96% in their first 4 games. Their defense has been as good without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo (72.00% vs 74.29%), but they’ve still been a much better football team of late and are at least comparable to the Colts, if not better. We’re not really getting any line value with the Colts as 3 point favorites. I’m taking the Patriots on principle as underdogs, but I’m not that confident as there’s a lot going on here.

Indianapolis Colts 24 New England Patriots 23

Pick against spread: New England +3

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Commanders, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) at Washington Redskins (3-6)

The Redskins stand at 3-6, but they are still favored by 7.5 points here over the Buccaneers. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% of the time historically. I don’t see the Redskins finishing 4-3 or better over their final 7 games. The Buccaneers aren’t good, but they’ve played some decent games on the road this season, including a win in Pittsburgh and close losses in Cleveland and New Orleans. The Buccaneers have actually only lost three games by more than a touchdown this season, as bad as their record is.

The Redskins also have a tough game next week, going to San Francisco. Teams are 76-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, touchdown favorites are 37-74 ATS since 1989 before being touchdown underdogs, which the Redskins almost definitely will be next week. The Buccaneers will also be road underdogs in Chicago next week, but teams are actually 96-70 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs.

The only reason this isn’t a high confidence pick is because the Redskins are better than most 3-6 teams as they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at a 73.08% rate, as opposed to 72.53% for their opponents, a differential of 0.55% and they should only get better offensively with Robert Griffin back from injury (though losing Orakpo defensively is a big loss). RG3 looked fine in his return before the bye in Minnesota and now he goes into his 2nd start back from injury after a bye. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers rank 29th, moving the chains at a 70.50% rate, as opposed to 76.38% for their opponents, a differential of -5.88%. However, they should still be the right side.

Washington Redskins 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Saints, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-5)

The Saints lost at home last week after previously winning 20 straight games under Sean Payton at home. Still, I like them at home a lot. They are still 18-2-1 ATS at home over their last 21 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, outscoring opponents by an average of about 18.52 points per game. I’m not going to not bet the Saints at home this week just because they lost in overtime last week. In fact, the fact that they lost last week might make it more likely that they cover this week. Drew Brees is 21-5 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 16-2 ATS at home.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have not been good on the road recently. The Bengals are 3-7-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. They are moving the chains at a 57.89% rate on the road, as opposed to 77.12% for their opponents, a differential of -19.22%. Meanwhile, the Saints are moving the chains at an 82.47% rate at home, as opposed to 73.28% for their opponents, a differential of 9.19%. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Bengals are coming off of an embarrassing loss on Thursday Night Football and teams usually bounce back in that situation, as they have extra time to be embarrassed. Underdogs are 24-16 ATS since 1989 off of a TNF loss by 14 or more. The Saints are still the right side though.

New Orleans Saints 34 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -7

Confidence: High

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Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Eagles, Packers, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3)

Both of these two teams had blowout victories on national television last week, as the Eagles blew out the Panthers on Monday Night Football by the final score of 45-21 and the Packers blew out the Bears on Sunday Night Football by the final score of 55-14. Which team has the best chance of continuing that into this week? Well, I think both teams have a good chance of continuing to play well this week. On Philadelphia’s side, teams tend to carry the momentum from a Monday Night Football win into the following week, going 33-14 ATS off of a MNF win by 21 or more since 2002. On Green Bay’s side, the Packers are once again at home, where they’ve been dominant recently. Aaron Rodgers is 24-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 30-4 straight up, with an absurd +510 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.00 points per game.

Both teams have no upcoming distractions as the Packers head to Minnesota and the Eagles host the Titans. Teams are 56-28 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. Going off that, teams are 83-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 53-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 21-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Green Bay -7.5). On the flip side, teams are 109-74 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs, before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 98-79 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites.

I’m going to take the Packers because we’re just getting so much line value with the Packers at home. The Packers move the chains at a 79.07% rate at home, as opposed to 68.70% for their opponents, a differential of 10.37%. The Eagles are in a great spot, but they rank just 9th, moving the chains at a 72.12% rate, as opposed to 69.00% for their opponents, on the season, a differential of 3.12% and the Packers are in a great spot too. As good as the final score looked against Carolina last week, the win was powered by an unsustainable turnover margin (+5) and two return touchdown. They moved the chains at a 70.00% rate, as opposed to 64.86% for the Panthers, a differential of 5.14%. I still think Mark Sanchez is a downgrade from Nick Foles. I’m not confident in the Packers though.

Green Bay Packers 30 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5.5

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-5) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

The Bears have been blown out in back-to-back games, losing 51-23 in New England and 55-14 in Green Bay in their past 2 weeks. However, I like their chances of bouncing back here. For one thing, teams usually do well off of back-to-back blowout losses, as teams are 40-23 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 2002, including 6-3 ATS since 2002 as favorites. That makes sense as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think the Bears have a good chance to be all three this week, even as favorites. There’s a small sample size with favorites in this situation, but I think favorites’ record in this situation since 2002 suggests two things. One, that teams are not favored off of back-to-back blowout losses very often. Two, that teams still cover and that aforementioned logic stills holds despite being favorited. Teams aren’t usually favored in this situation, but when they are, it’s for good reason.

Despite the fact that they are favored by 3 here and that they got blown out in their last 2 games, we’re actually getting some line value with the Bears, which goes back to the whole they are undervalued thing. They are 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at 76.03% rate, as opposed to 76.79% for their opponents, a differential of -0.76%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 68.63% rate, as opposed to 71.59% for their opponents, a differential of -2.95%. The Bears should be favored by more than a field goal here despite what has happened in the last 2 weeks. At the same time, the Vikings are in a bad spot with a game in Green Bay up next. Teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more, 28-60 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 8-22 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more (the early line is Green Bay -7.5). The Bears are the right side here.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-6-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

The Panthers are 3-6-1, but they’re even worse than their record suggests. Five of their 6 losses have come by 18 points or more (Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) and their -83 point differential is worse than every team’s but 5 (Oakland, Tampa Bay, NY Jets, Jacksonville, St. Louis). They rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.20% rate, as opposed to 77.16% for their opponents, a differential of -4.96%.

Last week, they were blown out by the score of 45-21 in Philadelphia. That was in embarrassing fashion on national television on Monday Night and now they have to turn around and play another game 5 days later. They won’t have time to bounce back and teams coming off blowout losses on MNF are horrible at covering the spread the following week, as teams are 18-27 ATS off of a MNF loss of 21+ or more since 2002, including 6-14 ATS as favorites. The line moved from 3 to 2 (and 1.5 in some places) from last week, which is a significant line movement, but that was deservedly so.

The Falcons aren’t great either, moving the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.64% that ranks 20th in the NFL, but the Panthers have no business being favored here, even at home. The Panthers aren’t favored by a ton (2 points), but that actually puts them in a bad spot. Teams are 36-59 ATS as home favorites of 1 to 5.5 going into a bye since 2002. Between that and last week’s blowout loss on Monday Night, the Panthers are in a horrible spot to cover the spread this week, even before you take into account that we’re getting line value with the Falcons as underdogs here.

The Falcons, conversely, are in a great spot as they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. I like the Falcons a good amount here.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Carolina Panthers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)

The Bills might be the team with the biggest disparity in terms of their record versus how well they’ve actually played. They may be 5-4, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record. They move the chains at a 65.17% rate, as opposed to 67.93% for their opponents, a differential of -2.76% that ranks 22nd in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are also 5-4, but they’re significantly better. They move the chains at a 73.99% rate, as opposed to 69.23% for their opponents, a differential of 4.76% that ranks 5th in the NFL. That suggests that the Dolphins should be favored by more than the 5.5 points they are favored by here.

However, the Dolphins are in a terrible spot, as they head to Denver next week, while the Bills host the lowly Jets. Teams are 59-42 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while divisional home favorites are 98-114 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 62-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. I’m going to go with the trends and take the Bills, fading the public in the process, but I’m not confident at all.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)

The public is all over the Seahawks here and most people assume the defending Super Bowl champs will win straight up here in Kansas City. Then why do the odds makers (who always make money in the long run) have them favored here by 1? Well, it’s because the sharps (who also always make money in the long run) are all over the Chiefs. That’s because the Chiefs are the superior team and at home here. The Chiefs rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential at 76.98%, as opposed to 70.34% for their opponents, a differential of 6.64%.

That might sound absurd considering they’re just 6-3, but they have a +66 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. The Seahawks, on the other hand, rank 7th moving the chains at a 76.17% rate, as opposed to 72.28% for their opponents, a differential of 3.89%.

That’s before you even take into account that the Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 45-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 43-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.68 points per game. This is opposed to a 24-41 record away from home (28-36-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.75 points per game. They’re even worse on the road as road underdogs, going 15-24 ATS in that spot since 2007, including 9-17 ATS as road underdogs off a home game, and 3-12 ATS as road underdogs off a home game and before another home game.

This is only the 2nd time they’ve been road underdogs over the past 2 seasons, but for good reason (the only game was last year’s in San Francisco). They aren’t as good as they were last season (the fact that they’ll be without Bobby Wagner, Brandon Mebane, and possibly Kam Chancellor this week doesn’t help) and Kansas City is very good. Also, while Seattle has Arizona up next (even though it’s a home game, it’s a bigger game for them), the Chiefs have a much easier game in Oakland up next. Teams are 83-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 53-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 21-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Kansas City -7.5). I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, especially when they’re on an underdog, and it definitely makes sense here. This is my Pick of the Week.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Seattle Seahawks 9

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 11

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 240 30 15 29 18 3 0 80.60%
2 GB 187 32 14 31 8 3 2 79.06%
3 DEN 209 36 11 44 8 4 0 78.53%
4 IND 235 32 20 36 15 4 1 77.84%
5 KC 190 24 14 40 8 2 0 76.98%
6 PIT 230 27 18 43 13 5 0 76.49%
7 SEA 186 25 19 35 9 2 1 76.17%
8 BAL 218 28 22 35 14 6 0 76.16%
9 CHI 200 22 9 34 18 9 0 76.03%
10 DAL 216 28 20 36 18 2 1 76.01%
11 NE 199 26 25 39 6 4 0 75.25%
12 SD 177 23 14 40 9 3 0 75.19%
13 ATL 185 24 14 38 14 6 1 74.11%
14 MIA 198 21 23 32 14 8 0 73.99%
15 WAS 187 22 16 40 17 4 0 73.08%
16 NYG 193 24 9 49 16 6 0 73.06%
17 SF 180 19 20 41 10 4 0 72.63%
18 ARZ 180 21 18 50 7 1 0 72.56%
19 CAR 206 20 19 48 17 3 0 72.20%
20 PHI 201 24 17 46 21 3 0 72.12%
21 DET 172 19 22 40 12 3 0 71.27%
22 STL 169 17 13 44 16 4 0 70.72%
23 CLE 179 22 18 52 8 6 0 70.53%
24 TB 166 18 13 39 19 5 1 70.50%
25 HOU 167 19 18 44 14 3 0 70.19%
26 CIN 169 21 21 44 14 3 0 69.85%
27 NYJ 190 18 19 50 18 6 0 69.10%
28 MIN 171 15 19 50 12 4 0 68.63%
29 TEN 152 16 13 49 13 4 2 67.47%
30 JAX 182 18 15 57 22 6 0 66.67%
31 BUF 156 18 21 53 14 4 1 65.17%
32 OAK 140 16 11 55 19 2 0 64.20%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 180 17 20 51 19 3 0 67.93%
2 DET 168 14 15 49 14 4 1 68.68%
3 PHI 184 23 14 57 16 6 0 69.00%
4 MIA 162 18 16 39 19 6 0 69.23%
5 CLE 187 19 16 51 17 6 1 69.36%
6 KC 171 14 19 44 8 7 0 70.34%
7 ARZ 179 19 13 46 19 4 0 70.71%
8 DEN 185 23 15 53 12 4 1 70.99%
9 BAL 191 20 18 46 15 5 1 71.28%
10 IND 179 24 11 50 13 7 0 71.48%
11 MIN 172 22 14 48 12 3 0 71.59%
12 SEA 174 19 16 42 12 3 1 72.28%
13 WAS 174 24 13 51 8 3 0 72.53%
14 DAL 183 23 11 44 17 6 0 72.54%
15 NYJ 185 29 18 54 7 1 0 72.79%
16 JAX 205 26 21 48 11 5 1 72.87%
17 NE 199 21 18 35 18 9 0 73.33%
18 HOU 197 23 14 42 21 3 0 73.33%
19 PIT 203 24 23 44 13 1 1 73.46%
20 SF 172 22 9 42 16 2 0 73.76%
21 CIN 211 22 22 38 14 5 1 74.44%
22 STL 183 22 17 38 11 2 0 75.09%
23 NYG 191 27 18 36 16 2 0 75.17%
24 TEN 209 24 19 42 11 4 0 75.40%
25 SD 180 23 12 37 9 7 1 75.46%
26 OAK 195 26 21 38 8 4 0 75.68%
27 ATL 200 25 22 33 16 1 0 75.76%
28 NO 188 23 17 38 10 1 1 75.90%
29 TB 209 27 26 34 12 1 0 76.38%
30 GB 209 22 12 30 18 10 0 76.74%
31 CHI 187 28 23 25 13 4 0 76.79%
32 CAR 218 32 17 38 16 3 0 77.16%

 

Overall

1 DEN 7.54%
2 KC 6.64%
3 IND 6.36%
4 BAL 4.88%
5 MIA 4.76%
6 NO 4.70%
7 SEA 3.89%
8 DAL 3.48%
9 PHI 3.12%
10 PIT 3.03%
11 DET 2.59%
12 GB 2.32%
13 NE 1.92%
14 ARZ 1.85%
15 CLE 1.17%
16 WAS 0.55%
17 SD -0.28%
18 CHI -0.76%
19 SF -1.14%
20 ATL -1.64%
21 NYG -2.11%
22 BUF -2.76%
23 MIN -2.95%
24 HOU -3.14%
25 NYJ -3.69%
26 STL -4.37%
27 CIN -4.59%
28 CAR -4.96%
29 TB -5.88%
30 JAX -6.20%
31 TEN -7.93%
32 OAK -11.49%

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