Houston Texans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
The Colts have been very good at home in the Andrew Luck era, going 16-7 ATS at home since 2002. We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Colts, as they rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 76.26% rate, as opposed to 71.26% for their opponents, a differential of 5.00%. Meanwhile, the Texans rank 20th, moving the chains at a 71.93% rate, as opposed to 72.60% for their opponents, a differential of -0.67%.
However, the Texans might be the better spot. Teams are 99-114 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 108-77 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining the two, teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. However, the Colts are only projected to be 1 point underdogs in Dallas next week and the Texans are only projected to be 1 point favorites over Baltimore, so that trend might not necessarily be in play. I’m going with the Colts, but I’m not confident.
Indianapolis Colts 27 Houston Texans 20
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -6.5