Year: 2014

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Packers, Uncategorized

QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

Over the past 5 seasons, Rodgers has played 71 games (only missing 2 games combined from 2009-2012) and completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.40 YPA, 159 touchdowns, and 38 interceptions, a QB rating of 108.2. He’s also rushed for 1308 yards and 14 touchdowns on 266 carries, an average of 4.92 YPC. He missed 8 games with injury last season, but as long as he’s on the field (and his injury history is pretty limited), Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, if not the best. I prefer him in fantasy to Peyton Manning, both in terms of value at their respective ADP and overall, because he adds value as a runner.

4450 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (344 pts standard)

RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

In 2013, Lacy rushed for 1178 yards and 11 touchdowns on 284 attempts, an average of 4.15 YPC. He also added 35 catches for 257 yards, en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. That YPC doesn’t seem terribly impressive, but he consistently carried the load, got positive yardage, and moved the chains. He had 73 first downs on 319 targets, including 61 first downs on 284 carries. He was 5th among running backs in rushing first downs.

On top of that, he played his best football when Aaron Rodgers was out of the lineup, helping to carry this team. He rushed for 666 yards and 7 touchdowns on 151 carries, an average of 4.41 YPC, and added 21 catches for 164 yards in the 8 games Rodgers missed. In their other 8 games, he rushed for 512 yards and 4 touchdowns on 133 carries, an average of 3.85 YPC, and added 14 catches for 103 yards. Going into his 2nd year in the league, Lacy could be even better, after playing most of his rookie year through an ankle injury. A full season of Aaron Rodgers will give him more running room and touchdown opportunities and if he runs like he did when Rodgers was out last year, he’ll give the Packers an incredibly potent balanced offense and be a top-5 running back in fantasy football.

300 carries for 1320 yards, 13 total touchdowns, 40 catches for 300 yards (240 pts standard)

WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

Last season, Nelson caught 85 passes on 120 targets (70.8%) for 1314 yards and 8 touchdowns on 645 routes run, an average of 2.04 yards per route run. He was outstanding in the 8 games that Rodgers played last season, catching 49 passes on 67 targets (73.1%) for 810 yards and 8 touchdowns on 327 routes run, an average of 2.48 yards per route run. However, he was still alright when Rodgers was out of the lineup, catching 36 passes on 53 targets (67.9%) for 504 yards and a touchdown on 318 routes run, an average of 1.54 yards per route run. Last year was a career high for him in catches and yards and he should have another strong year this year. One issue is that, he may see fewer targets this season because Randall Cobb is coming back from injury.

82 catches for 1280 yards and 9 touchdowns (182 pts standard)

WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)

Cobb had a breakout year in 2012, catching 80 passes on 102 targets (78.4%) for 954 yards and 8 touchdowns on 422 routes run, an average of 2.26 yards per route run. He was Pro Football Focus’ #11 ranked wide receiver that season. He looked on his way to a similar season in 2013, but injuries derailed that, limiting him to 6 games. He caught 31 passes on 40 targets (77.5%) for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns on 209 routes run, an average of 2.07 yards per route run. Going into his contract year this year, without much of an injury history, he should have another year similar to 2012.

80 catches for 950 yards and 8 touchdowns, 100 rushing yards (153 pts standard)

WR Jarrett Boykin (Green Bay)

Jarrett Boykin stepped up in Cobb’s absence, catching 49 passes on 75 targets (65.3%) for 681 yards on 410 routes run, an average of 1.66 yards per route run. Boykin was a 2012 7th round pick and only played 96 snaps as a rookie. He’s a marginal talent that Aaron Rodgers makes look better than he is and he’s only their #3 target at best. That being said, James Jones is gone so Boykin will probably replace him and his production. He had 59 catches on 88 targets (67.0%) for 817 yards on 527 routes run (1.55 yards per route run) and 3 touchdowns last season. There’s some late round appeal with him, particularly if either Nelson or Cobb get hurt this season.

50 catches for 700 yards and 6 touchdowns (106 pts standard)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

Doug Martin, a 2012 1st round pick, had a great rookie year, rushing for 1454 yards and 11 touchdowns on 319 carries, 4.56 YPC, and adding 49 catches for 472 yards and another score. His sophomore season was about the opposite. Martin lasted 6 games before going down for the season with a shoulder injury and in those 6 games, he rushed for 456 yards and a touchdown on 127 carries, 3.59 YPA, and added just 12 catches for 66 yards.

Martin should be healthier this season and he should bounce back somewhat as a runner, but he has an injury history dating back to his collegiate days and he’s still a one year wonder in terms of being a proven NFL running back. Martin’s 2012 seems out of reach for him at the moment, especially given how bad the Buccaneers’ run blocking could be this season. The Buccaneers have also mentioned on multiple occasions that they want to use more of a committee in the backfield. 3rd round rookie Charles Sims could be done for the season, but Mike James and Bobby Rainey could still siphon off carries.

240 carries for 1030 yards, 8 total touchdowns, 41 catches for 340 yards (185 pts standard)

WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

Vincent Jackson is the only proven pass catcher the Buccaneers have. Over the past 6 seasons, he’s caught 351 passes for 6227 yards and 43 touchdowns on 624 targets (56.3%) and 2835 routes run, an average of 2.20 yards per route run. He’s a deep threat and not a consistent volume receiver, but he’s one of the better wide receivers in the league. The one minor concern is that he’s going into his age 31 season, but that’s probably not a problem yet.

70 catches for 1180 yards and 7 touchdowns (160 pts standard)

WR Mike Evans (Tampa Bay)

Evans is really talented, but he’s a raw rookie who doesn’t even turn 21 until the end of August. Rookie wide receivers tend to struggle anyway, even first round talents.  Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Let someone else overdraft him.

50 catches for 750 yards and 6 touchdowns (111 pts standard)

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Tampa Bay)

I mentioned wide receivers struggle as rookie. The same isn’t necessarily true for tight ends, but Seferian-Jenkins is a mere 2nd round rookie and won’t necessarily even start as the Buccaneers have yet to give him the starting job over Brandon Myers. That should remind you to temper your expectations for him in his rookie year because Myers isn’t very good.

45 catches for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

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Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Falcons, Uncategorized

QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

Last season, Matt Ryan had his worst quarterback rating since 2009, but a quarterback rating of 89.6 is still really solid and most of his statistical decline can be attributed to the decline of his supporting cast. He completed 67.4% of his passes for an average of 6.94 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. For his career, he’s completed 63.7% of his passes for an average of 7.14 YPA, 153 touchdowns, and 77 interceptions. He’s one of the better quarterbacks in the league and with his offensive supporting cast likely to be much better this season, he should once again lead one of the NFL’s more explosive and dangerous offenses. He’s a QB1.

4725 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (297 pts standard)

RB Steven Jackson (Atlanta)

Last season, Steven Jackson was limited to 157 carries in 12 games and rushed for just 543 yards and 6 touchdowns, a pathetic average of 3.46 yards per carry. Jackson probably won’t be better or healthier this season. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.52 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. Jackson has rushed for 10,678 yards (20th all-time), but Jackson is going into his age 31 season with 2553 career carries, so what happened last season is no surprise and should be seen as the beginning of a very swift end.

160 carries for 640 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 210 yards (121 pts standard)

RB Devonta Freeman (Atlanta)

The Falcons drafted Devonta Freeman in the 4th round, realizing they needed help at running back. He has a good chance to open the see as the primary backup to Jackson and have a significant role from the start. And if Jackson continues to struggle or gets hurt, that role will grow. If I had to guess, he’ll lead Falcon running backs in yards from scrimmage this season. That being said, while there are a lot of people who will vouch for Freeman as another running back who will prove to be a steal in the mid rounds, he’s still just a 4th round rookie and could easily struggle this season.

150 carries for 620 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 280 yards (114 pts standard)

WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

Jones, the 6th overall pick in 2011, showed himself as one of the best young wide receivers in the game in his first 2 seasons in the league. In 2011 and 2012 combined, he caught 133 passes on 218 targets (61.0%) for 2157 yards and 18 touchdowns on 1035 routes run, an average of 2.08 yards per route run. He looked on his way to a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league (a common breakout year for wide receivers) in 2013, catching 41 passes on 57 targets (71.9%) for 580 yards and 2 touchdowns on 212 routes run, an average of 2.74 yards per route run, best in the NFL among eligible receivers.

However, he broke his foot 5 games into the season and missed the rest of the year, killing his chance at that breakout year. He has a troubling injury history, particularly with his foot, dating back to his collegiate days. The good news is that reports out of training camp are really promising and he’s only going into his age 25 season. If he can stay healthy, he could absolutely dominate the NFL this season and make life much easier for Matt Ryan. Just for fun, his stats in 2013 extrapolate to 131 catches for 1856 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games. He won’t reach that level of production, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he led the NFL in receiving if he stays healthy.

90 catches for 1500 yards and 12 touchdowns (222 pts standard)

WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

White missed 3 games and was severely limited for most of last season with leg problems, catching 20 passes for 209 yards and a touchdown in the first 8 games he played last season. Those 3 games were the first games he missed in his career and last season was the first season since the 2nd season of his career in 2006 that he had fewer than 1000 yards. The once reliably solid wide receiver no longer is. He did finish last season on a tear, catching 43 passes for 502 yards and 2 touchdowns in the final 5 games of the season once he got healthy, which could be promising for 2014.

However, his age and the fact that he’s coming off of a serious injury plagued down season are both concerns. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. White isn’t quite there right now, but he’s at the point in his career where is age is becoming a concern, going into his age 33 season. White’s 9,436 career receiving yards are “only” 45th all-time. White will still probably have a better year than last year if I had to put money on it, both in terms of production and efficiency, but his best days are behind him.

64 catches for 840 yards and 6 touchdowns (120 pts standard)

WR Harry Douglas (Atlanta)

With Tony Gonzalez gone, the Falcons will once again use a bunch of three-wide receiver sets this season. They’ll do a better job of that this year because White and Jones are healthier, allowing Harry Douglas to move back to his natural role on the slot as the Falcons’ 3rd receiver. Douglas caught 85 passes for 1067 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, but he showed himself to be overstretched as a number #1 receiver. His production was largely a result of volume and having Matt Ryan under center, as he averaged 1.66 yards per route run, dropped 9 passes, and had 7 interceptions on passes thrown to him. He’s a much better fit as the 3rd receiver. I don’t expect much fantasy production from him.

48 catches for 680 yards and 4 touchdowns (92 pts standard)

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Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Panthers, Uncategorized

QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

In 3 years in the league, Newton has completed 59.8% for an average of 7.66 YPA, 64 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, while rushing for 2032 yards and 28 touchdowns on 364 attempts, an average of 5.58 YPC. He’s gotten slightly better in quarterback rating in each of the three seasons he’s been in the league. He could easily have his worst statistical year this season though. The Panthers lost their best two offensive lineman and every wide receiver who caught a pass for them last season. They didn’t add a ton of talent to replace those guys and Newton missed most of the off-season with an ankle problem. That ankle problem might not hurt them on the field this season, but missing all that practice time could hurt his chemistry with his new supporting cast, especially early in the season. He’s a low end QB1 because of his running ability.

3250 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 620 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns (292 pts standard)

RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

DeAngelo Williams will probably be the lead back again. Williams has had an impressive career, averaging 4.84 yards per carry over 1370 career carries. However, he’s now going into his age 31 season and has averaged just 4.22 yards per carry over those 2 seasons combined. He’s clearly declining and could decline even more this season. He’s also only gone over 200 carries 3 times in 8 seasons (including last season) and doesn’t offer much in the passing game, with 173 catches in 111 career games, including just 39 over the past 2 seasons combined.

180 carries for 720 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 22 catches for 180 yards (120 pts standard)

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

Williams has had some issues with injuries in his career, but Jonathan Stewart has had even bigger problems with injuries. He only missed 2 games in his first 4 seasons combined, but he was consistently playing through injuries and it appears to have caught up with him over the past 2 seasons, as he’s missed a combined 17 games and carried the ball just a combined 141 times over those past 2 seasons. He’s also been limited to 3.66 yards per carry over the past 2 seasons. He’s a talented player when healthy, averaging 4.64 yards per carry for his career, despite his struggles over the last 2 seasons, but he’s rarely healthy. He’s also only gone over 200 carries in a season once in 6 years in the league and he’s only caught 105 passes in 77 games.

120 carries for 490 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 15 catches for 100 yards (77 pts standard)

RB Mike Tolbert (Carolina)

The Panthers’ best back might be fullback Mike Tolbert, who led Panther backs with 606 snaps played last season. He only averaged 3.57 yards per carry (361 rushing yards on 101 carries), but that’s partially because he was doing a lot of the dirty work and short yardage running. He picked up 2.02 yards per carry after contact and 31 first downs on 101 carries. He also was their best pass catching running back, catching 27 passes (which led Panther running backs) for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns.

90 carries for 360 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 25 catches for 200 yards (86 pts standard)

WR Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina)

Kelvin Benjamin could be forced into the #1 wide receiver role. Benjamin certainly has talent, but he’s very raw, as he only played two seasons of college football and only had one season where he had meaningful production. Rookie wide receivers tend to struggle anyway, even first round talents.  Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies.

Benjamin is rawer than most wide receivers drafted in the first round and was a very late first round pick. He could exceed those averages in terms of pure numbers because of the size of his role and the caliber of quarterback he has throwing to him, but he probably won’t play well or be that efficient. He showed himself to be incredibly athletic and physical both in college and at the combine (6-5 240 4.61 40), but he’s purely a deep threat at this point in his football career.

42 catches for 700 yards and 6 touchdowns (106 pts standard)

WR Jerricho Cotchery (Carolina)

Cotchery was a very good wide receiver with the Jets from 2007-2009, grading out above average in all 3 seasons, catching a combined 210 passes for 2809 yards and 10 touchdowns. However, he struggled mightily in 2010, catching 41 passes for 433 yards and 2 touchdowns. He ended up in Pittsburgh, where he played just a combined 553 snaps in 2011-2012. However, in 2013, he got a bigger role and caught 46 passes on 74 attempts (62.2%) for 607 yards and 10 touchdowns on 440 routes run, an average of 1.38 yards per route run. He’ll be starter in Carolina, but only out of necessity. Going into his age 32 season, he’s a low upside pick at the end of fantasy drafts.

50 catches for 650 yards and 5 touchdowns (95 pts standard)

TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

Last season, Olsen caught 73 passes on 102 attempts (71.6%) for 816 yards and 6 touchdowns on 482 routes run, an average of 1.69 yards per route run. He lead them in receptions, yards, and touchdowns last season and will almost definitely do so again this season with Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn and company all gone. He could easily surpass last season’s production. He’s an underrated fantasy asset at a weak tight end position.

78 catches for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns (138 pts standard)

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New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Saints, Uncategorized

QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

Since joining the Saints in 2006 and uniting with Sean Payton, he’s completed 67.3% of his passes for an average of 7.76 YPA, 283 touchdowns and 124 interceptions. He’s going into his age 35 season, but he’s shown no signs of decline. Last season, he completed 68.6% of his passes for an average of 7.94 YPA, 39 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Like Brady and Manning before him, Brees is another quarterback who could remain dominant into his mid-30s.

5200 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (348 pts standard)

RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

Thomas only averaged 3.73 yards per carry last season (549 yards on 147 carries), but he also averaged 2.20 yards per carry after contact and broke 43 tackles on 224 carries, giving him the 18th best elusive rating at his position among eligible players. On top of that, he’s averaged 4.56 yards per carry for his career and he caught 77 passes for 513 yards last season. He’s going into his age 30 season and he’s only maxed out at 147 carries in a season (twice), but he’ll still have a significant role as a passing down back, especially with Darren Sproles gone.

120 carries for 520 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 75 catches for 600 yards

RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

Ingram was a first round pick in 2011, but he’s been a bust thus far in his career. He’s had just 356 carries in 3 seasons, averaging 4.11 yards per carry (1462 yards) and scoring 11 touchdowns. He’s missed 11 games in 3 seasons and has shown nothing as a pass catcher, only catching 24 passes for 143 yards in his career. He’ll compete with Khiry Robinson for the primary running down back role this season.

100 carries for 420 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 11 catches for 90 yards (75 pts standard)

RB Khiry Robinson (New Orleans)

Robinson, meanwhile, saw 76 snaps as an undrafted rookie and rushed for 224 yards and a touchdown on 54 carries, an average of 4.15 yards per carry. He doesn’t offer anything on passing downs either. The coaching staff really likes him though so, right now, I’d say that he’s the favorite to be their lead back right now. He flashed in the post-season, rushing for 102 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, an average of 4.86 yards per carry. I don’t see any New Orleans running back getting more than 150 carries though. Thomas is valuable in PPR, but other than that, it’s a fantasy wasteland.

140 carries for 620 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 10 catches for 80 yards (100 pts standard)

WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

Marques Colston remains as the #1 wide receiver. He showed statistical decline last season, catching 75 passes for 943 yards and 5 touchdowns. It tied a career low for touchdowns and it was only the 2nd season of his 8-year career in which he went under 1000 yards, with the other season being a season in which he played just 11 games. However, he was still really efficient, catching 70.1% of his targets and averaging 1.77 yards per route run. He’s going into his age 31 season, he should have another solid season and probably lead Saint wide receivers in catches and yards.

70 catches for 1010 yards and 8 touchdowns (149 pts standard)

WR Brandin Cooks (New Orleans)

Rookie wide receivers rarely do anything. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. If Cooks can end up winning a starting job or a significant role, he could surpass those numbers, not because he’s more talented than the average 1st round wide receiver (or Johnson or Fitzgerald obviously), but because of the situation he was drafted into with Drew Brees throwing him the football. He’ll still be overdrafted though.

42 catches for 750 yards and 6 touchdowns (111 pts standard)

WR Kenny Stills (New Orleans)

Stills is competing with Cooks for the starting job. He probably won’t win it, but he’ll still have a significant role. The 2013 5th round pick struggled as a rookie. He caught 32 of his 46 targets (69.6%) for 641 yards and 5 touchdowns, but he did so on 496 routes run, an average of 1.29 yards per route run. He was purely a deep threat. That being said, rookie wide receivers almost always struggle, as I mentioned earlier, and he definitely flashed at times, so he could be improved in his 2nd year in the league.

45 catches for 700 yards and 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard)

TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

Jimmy Graham is listed as a tight end, but he’s the Saints’ de facto #1 receiver. In 4 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2010, he’s caught 301 passes for 3863 yards and 41 touchdowns on 454 targets (66.3%) and 1758 routes run, an average of 2.20 yards per route run. Rob Gronkowski is a significant better blocker and a more well-rounded tight end, but he has a significant injury history so Graham is the best pass catching tight end in the league. He’s easily the top tight end this year and a first round pick in fantasy, given the lack of depth at the tight end position.

91 catches for 1210 yards and 12 touchdowns (193 pts standard)

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New York Giants Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Giants, Uncategorized

QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

From 2009-2012, Eli Manning completed 61.5% of his passes for an average of 7.80 YPA, 113 touchdowns, and 70 interceptions. However, last year, he struggled mightily, grading out 30th out of 42 eligible, completing 57.5% of his passes for an average of 6.93 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions. That could just be a down year, but he’s also going into his age 33 season, so it’s a serious concern. There’s not much to get excited about here from a fantasy perspective.

3750 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (206 pts standard)

RB Rashad Jennings (NY Giants)

Jennings was impressive last season, taking the starting job away from the struggling Darren McFadden mid-season in Oakland. He rushed for 733 yards and 6 touchdowns on 163 carries, an average of 4.50 YPC, and also added 36 catches for 292 yards. The issue is that he’s a one year wonder. He didn’t play a snap in 2011 thanks to injuries and then rushed for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns on 101 carries in 2012, 2.80 YPC.

In his career, he’s rushed for 1677 yards and 13 touchdowns on 387 carries (4.33 YPC), catching 97 passes for 746 yards. He’s never played all 16 games in a season and has only played 53 out of a possible 80 games in 5 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 7th round in 2009. He’s also already going into his age 29 season, after being 24 years old when he was drafted. The Giants are counting on him to be a” bell cow” feature back, but there are no guarantees obviously. He’s a borderline RB2/RB3 purely on volume.

220 carries for 950 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 38 catches for 280 yards (159 pts standard)

RB Andre Williams (NY Giants) Jennings is unproven as a feature back so Williams has some late round upside. He was only a 4th round pick because he’s purely an inside the tackles runner and I don’t expect big things from him as a rookie, but he could steal the goal line carries and he’s pretty locked into the #2 back role right now, with David Wilson retiring.

80 carries for 330 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 8 catches for 60 yards (63 pts standard)

WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

Victor Cruz remains as the #1 wide receiver and an every down player. He also moves to the slot in 3-wide receiver sets. The undrafted free agent from the University of Massachusetts in 2010, Cruz didn’t play a snap as a rookie. Over the past 3 seasons though, he’s caught 241 passes on 376 attempts (64.1%) for 3626 yards and 23 touchdowns on 1541 routes run, an average of 2.35 yards per route run. He had a down year last year, catching 73 passes for 998 yards and 4 touchdowns as the whole passing offense took a step back. I expect him to be closer to that than the 84 catches for 1314 yards and 10 touchdowns per season he averaged from 2011-2012 because I don’t have huge expectations for this whole passing offense, but he’s still a WR2.

84 catches for 1060 yards and 7 touchdowns (148 pts standard)

WR Reuben Randle (NY Giants)

A 2012 2nd round pick, Randle has caught 60 of 108 targets (55.6%) for 909 yards and 9 touchdowns on 580 routes run in his career in 2 seasons, an average of 1.57 yards per route run. The Giants will be hoping for a 3rd year breakout year from him. He’s expected to be the #2 wide receiver and should get a fair amount of targets as the Giants don’t have anything at tight end. Something comparable to the 56 catches for 896 yards that Hakeem Nicks had last season, plus more touchdowns, is pretty reasonable for Randle. He’s a solid bench player in fantasy.

61 catches for 800 yards and 6 touchdowns (116 pts standard)

WR Odell Beckham (NY Giants)

I hate rookie wide receivers in fantasy. They’re always over-drafted because of their name and that’s true of Odell Beckham as well. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Beckham will only be the #3 wide receiver as a rookie.

41 catches for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns (79 pts standard)

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Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Cowboys, Uncategorized

QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

Romo is once again coming off of a very strong season, completing 63.9% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, a QB rating of 96.7. For his career, he completes 64.6% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 208 touchdowns, and 101 interceptions. The concern with Romo isn’t a lack of clutch (whatever that means). It’s that he’s going into his age 34 season coming off of a significant back injury with his YPA declining in every season since 2011 (8.02 YPA, 7.57 YPA, 7.16 YPA) and his completion percentage declining in every season since 2010 (69.5%, 66.3%, 65.6%, 63.9%).

4325 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (260 pts standard)

RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

DeMarco Murray had the best season of his career in 2013, rushing for 1121 yards and 9 touchdowns on 217 attempts, an average of 5.17 YPC. He also added 53 catches for 350 yards and a touchdown through the air. I’m skeptical whether or not he can repeat that kind of season, given his injury history. He’s been banged up dating back to college, even missing 2 games last season, and missing a combined 11 games in 3 seasons in the league. He’s never played more than 14 games in a season and the 270 touches he had last season blew his previous career high of 196 out of the water.

200 carries for 960 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 45 catches for 360 yards (174 pts standard)

RB Lance Dunbar (Dallas)     

If Murray misses time, it’ll be a bigger role for Lance Dunbar, who could have a significant role either way. Scott Linehan, coming in from Detroit to essentially coordinate their offesne, sees Dunbar as someone who can be a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles/Danny Woodhead type weapon so he’ll have a significant role on passing downs and make Murray largely a two-down running back. He won’t see a lot of carries unless Murray gets hurt, but he could see 40-50 catches.

100 carries for 450 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 40 catches for 350 yards (104 pts standard)

WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

Dez Bryant has come into his own over the past two seasons, averaging 2.11 yards per route run and catching 185 passes for 2615 yards and 25 touchdowns in the past two seasons combined, while not missing a single game. I expect more of the same from him this season, as easily the top wide receiver in an explosive pass offense.

90 catches for 1200 yards and 11 touchdowns (186 pts standard)

WR Terrance Williams (Dallas)

The heavy favorite to be the #2 wide receiver is Terrence Williams, who was 2nd on the team in snaps played by a wide receiver last season with 700, ahead of the injury plagued Miles Austin, who is now gone. The 3rd round rookie caught 44 passes on 72 targets (61.1%) for 736 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns on 490 routes run, an average of 1.50 yards per route run, which isn’t great. Still, he has upside and he could easily be better in his 2nd year in the league considering rookie wide receivers rarely do anything.

51 catches for 770 yards and 5 touchdowns (107 pts standard)

TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

Jason Witten remains one of the best and most reliable tight ends in the NFL. Since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2003, he’s missed one game, missing one as a rookie when he broke his jaw. He played in the opener in 2012 less than 3 weeks after rupturing his spleen and needing to sign a waiver to get onto the field. Excluding his rookie year, he’s always been between 64 and 110 catches 754 and 1152 yards and 1 and 7 touchdowns. He is once again a solid TE1.

80 catches for 900 yards and 5 touchdowns (120 pts standard)

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Washington Redskins Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Commanders, Uncategorized

QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

As a rookie, Griffin completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 8.14 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while rushing for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns on 120 carries (6.79 YPC). Last season, he completed 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, while rushing for 489 yards and no touchdowns on 86 carries (5.69 YPC). This was all before being shut down for the season with 3 weeks to go. The good news is he should bounce back this season. Most of his struggles last season were the result of the torn ACL he suffered in January of 2013. He was able to make it back for week 1, but it clearly limited him. Even Tom Brady struggled, by his standards, in his first year back from his torn ACL and Griffin is much more reliant on his legs and had less time to recover (Brady’s injury was in September). He’s a great bounce back candidate.

3750 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 450 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns (289 pts standard)

RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

Morris rushed for 1613 yards and 13 touchdowns on 335 carries as a 6th round rookie in 2012, an average of 4.81 YPC. In 2013, he rushed for 1275 yards and 7 touchdowns on 276 carries, an average of 4.62 YPC. That’s obviously not a bad season, but he wasn’t as good as he was as a rookie. The good news is that he should find more running space with a healthy Robert Griffin functioning as a dual option at quarterback. The bad news is that Jay Gruden is coming in as head coach and wants to open up the passing offense. Morris has caught 20 passes in 2 seasons. Gruden is on record saying that he wants to give passing down back Roy Helu more snaps.

Last season, Helu played 547 snaps while Morris played 611 snaps. Morris will have a role similar to BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who had 472 snaps in Cincinnati, as opposed to 627 snaps for passing down back Giovani Bernard. BJGE still had 220 carries last season and Morris is much more talented than him, while Helu is not as talented as Bernard. It could be a more even split in snaps and Morris could still see 240-260 carries this season, including all the goal line carries, and average a high YPC, but Helu will have a bigger role than last season.

250 carries for 1180 yards, 10 total touchdowns, 15 catches for 100 yards (188 pts standard)

RB Roy Helu (Washington)

As I mentioned, Roy Helu should have a bigger role this season, both in terms of carries and catches. He’s only averaged 4.26 yards per carry in 3 seasons in the league, but he’s caught 87 passes for 675 yards and a touchdown. He won’t do a ton of damage as a runner, but he could catch 40-50 passes. He has more value in PPR leagues than regular leagues.

100 carries for 420 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 40 catches for 320 yards (98 pts standard)

WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)

Garcon missed 6 games and was limited in others in 2012, in the first year of a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar deal that was highly speculative when he signed it because he had never had a 1000 yard season in four years with the Colts, three with Peyton Manning. However, Garcon still flashed in 2012 on 403 snaps, grading out well above average and catching 44 passes for 633 yards and 4 touchdowns on 215 routes run, an average of 2.94 yards per route run that was 2nd best in the NFL. Given that he did that with a bad foot, it was very promising for 2013.

He wasn’t quite as efficient in 2013, but that’s to be expected considering he had significantly more playing time and his quarterback play was significantly worse. He was still really good, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked wide receiver. He caught 113 catches on 174 targets (64.9%) for 1346 yards and 5 touchdowns on 615 routes run, an average of 2.19 yards per route run, 12th in the NFL. He was largely a volume receiver, catching primarily underneath targets, with only 25 catches 10+ yards downfield, and finishing 2nd in the NFL in targets. He won’t get as many targets this season with DeSean Jackson coming in and Jordan Reed back healthy, but he should have more room to work with and better quarterback play.

88 catches for 1090 yards and 5 touchdowns (139 pts standard)

WR DeSean Jackson (Washington)

DeSean Jackson had a career year last year, catching 82 passes for 1332 yards and 9 touchdowns, all either career highs or tying career highs. The Eagles still cut him though, in favor of re-signing Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper. He’s highly unlikely to match those numbers now that he’s out of Chip Kelly’s system. He could easily be 3rd on the Redskins in catches, serving primarily as a deep decoy while Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed eat up underneath catches. Stay away for fantasy purposes.

60 catches for 960 yards and 6 touchdowns (132 pts standard)

TE Jordan Reed (Washington)

Reed, a 3rd round rookie last season, missed 7 games with concussions, but still caught 45 passes on 60 attempts (75.0%) for 499 yards and 4 touchdowns on 228 routes run, an average of 2.19 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL. If he stays healthy, he could have a breakout year in 2014. He won’t get a ton of targets with Garcon and Jackson also on the team, but there will be plenty of room for him to work in and he should have quarterback play this season.

68 catches for 790 yards and 6 touchdowns (115 pts standard)

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Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Eagles, Uncategorized

QB Nick Foles (Philadelphia)

Foles broke into the lineup because of a Vick injury (what else) and took the starting job and ran with it, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He led the league in QB rating at 119.2, ahead of even Peyton Manning, and finished with the 3rd best QB rating season all time. I don’t expect him to be that efficient again. He definitely won’t throw an interception on just 0.6% of his passes again (2 interceptions on 317 attempts). Opponents also now have a full season of tape of Chip Kelly’s offense, so they won’t catch opponents off guard as much, though part of what makes Kelly so great is his ability to adapt. Foles also lost DeSean Jackson, though they’ll attempt to replace him with Jeremy Maclin, Darren Sproles, Jordan Matthews, and a bigger year from Zach Ertz. Foles is still a QB1.

4000 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (312 pts standard)

RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

Last season, McCoy rushed for 1607 yards and 9 touchdowns on 314 attempts, an average of 5.12 yards per attempt, and caught 52 passes on 539 yards and 2 touchdowns. He broke 75 tackles on 366 touches and averaged 2.38 yards per carry after contact, giving him the 9th best elusive rating in the NFL. There’s obviously no guarantee he continues that kind of success. It’s hard to repeat that at any position, especially at running back, especially when you’re a 5-10 198 pounder who had 366 touches (391 including post-season). However, he’s safely a top-3 running back in fantasy this year.

280 carries for 1340 yards, 12 total touchdowns, 50 catches for 450 yards (251 pts standard)

RB Darren Sproles (Philadelphia)

Darren Sproles is a “running back.” I put running back in quotations because he’s had 291 catches to 238 carries over the past 4 seasons combined and he wasn’t brought to Philadelphia to help in the running game. He’ll backup feature back LeSean McCoy, but McCoy played 890 snaps last season and his backup played 199 snaps, including 75 carries. Sproles will help out as a versatile weapon in the passing game and often play at the same time as McCoy, lining up in the other side of the backfield and in the slot primarily. I expect 6-8 touches per game from him.

50 carries for 240 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 50 catches for 400 yards (88 pts standard)

WR Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)

The most promising wide receiver for the Eagles is Jeremy Maclin. Maclin missed all of last season with a torn ACL. Maclin is actually a more versatile player as compared to Riley Cooper and even DeSean Jackson and I think he can be a strong fit in Chip Kelly’s offense, though he’s yet to play for Kelly in a regular season game. Injuries have been the problem for Maclin throughout his career as the 2009 1st round pick has missed 21 games in 5 years in his career, including all of last season and has only once played all 16 games. He’s averaged 1.57 yards per route run throughout his career. The 2009 1st round pick could have the best season of his career in 2014 if he can stay healthy.

70 catches for 1050 yards and 7 touchdowns (147 pts standard)

WR Riley Cooper (Philadelphia)

A year ago, Cooper was the Eagles 4th receiver and had 46 catches for 679 catches and 5 touchdowns in the first 3 years of his career. He struggled to start the 2013 season as well, catching 8 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown in his first 5 games in a starting role, before breaking out down the stretch. He had only played 1054 snaps before last season and graded out below average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league. He’s a great fit for the Eagles’ offense and Chip Kelly could easily continue to get the most out of him, but he’s a one-year wonder and he could struggle without Jackson opposite him. He’s certainly not the coverage changing receiver that Jackson was.

55 catches for 820 yards and 5 touchdowns (112 pts standard)

WR Jordan Matthews (Philadelphia)

I hate rookie wide receivers in fantasy. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Matthews wasn’t even a 1st round pick. He’ll be the Eagles’ primary slot receiver this year, which was a big role last season, but he’ll cede snaps to both Darren Sproles and to more two-tight end sets, so he won’t play as much as slot man Jason Avant did in 2013. He’s only worth a look in deep leagues.

45 catches for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns (79 pts standard)

TE Zach Ertz (Philadelphia)

Zach Ertz impressed in limited action as a rookie and will be counted on to help replace DeSean Jackson’s production. Ertz caught 36 passes on 55 attempts (65.5%) for 469 yards and 4 touchdowns on 243 routes run, an impressive 1.93 yards per route run. Going into his 2nd year in the league, the 6-5 250 pound Stanford product will have a bigger role and be used all over the formation. The 2013 2nd round pick could have a breakout year.

50 catches for 680 yards and 6 touchdowns (104 pts standard)

TE Brent Celek (Philadelphia)

Brent Celek caught 32 passes on 47 attempts (68.1%) for 502 yards and 6 touchdowns on 319 routes run last season, an average of 1.59 yards per route run. He could have a bigger role in the passing game this season with Jackson gone, but Ertz is the Philadelphia tight end to own. Celek is a much better blocker than pass catcher.

40 catches for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns (79 pts standard)

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Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

Joe Flacco was pretty consistently a slightly above average quarterback in the first 5 seasons of his career from 2008-2012. His QB rating had always fallen between 80.3 and 93.6. His completion percentages had always fallen between 57.6% and 63.1%. His YPAs had always fallen between 6.66 and 7.41. His touchdowns had always fallen between 20 and 25 (with the exception of his rookie year) and his interceptions had always fallen between 10 and 12.

He then had a fantastic post-season in 2012, en route to that Super Bowl, completing 57.9% of his passes for an average of 9.05 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He followed that up with the worst season of his career in 2013, completing 59.7% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, easily a career worst QB rating of 73.1. Part of it was his fault but he really didn’t have much help. The Ravens made some changes around him so there’s some bounce back potential, but he’s still just a QB2.

3700 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (224 pts standard)

RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

From 2009-2012, Rice averaged 277 carries for 1267 yards and 8 touchdowns and 70 catches for 610 yards and 2 touchdowns per season, an average of 4.57 yards per carry. However, in 2013, he rushed for 660 yards and 4 touchdowns on 214 carries (3.08 YPC) and caught 58 passes for 321 yards. He broke just 13 tackles on 272 touches and averaged 1.52 yards per carry after contact, giving him easily the league’s worst elusive rating.

Rice isn’t over the hill, only going into his age 27 season and his struggles last year are being attributed to overwork over the previous 4 seasons (1387 touches), a nagging hip injury, and him being overweight. He says the hip injury is behind him and he’s slimmed down this off-season and he’s been looking better in practice so a bounce back year isn’t out of the question, especially with a better offensive line and a new offensive system in place. Hurting his chances at a bounce back year is a two game suspension he’ll face to start the season, after assaulting his now wife this off-season.

180 carries for 720 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 40 catches for 300 yards (132 pts standard)

RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

The player who can take the most advantage of Rice’s potential suspension is Bernard Pierce. Pierce, a 2012 3rd round pick, proved to be very valuable as a rookie en route to a Super Bowl victory, totaling 734 yards and a touchdown on 140 carries across the regular season and post-season, an average of 5.24 yards per carry. However, thanks to the blocking, an injury of his own, and his own struggles, Pierce averaged just 2.87 yards per carry last season and was unable to take advantage of a struggling Rice. He had a better elusive though so more of his struggles can be attributed to the blocking. Healthier, in a new system in his 3rd year in the league, Pierce could have a bounce back year. If he impresses as the lead back in Rice’s absence, he could remain in that role.

160 carries for 670 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 22 catches for 130 yards (110 pts standard)

RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (Baltimore)

The Ravens are going to give both Rice and Pierce the opportunity to bounce back this season, but 4th round rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro is still worth monitoring in all leagues and drafting as a late round flier in deep leagues. At the very least, he’ll see action early in the season when Rice is suspended. He’s the definition of a deep sleeper.

90 carries for 380 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 15 catches for 110 yards (67 pts standard)

WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

Smith appeared to have a breakout year last season in his 3rd year in the league after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2011, catching 65 passes for 1128 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he’s a fairly incomplete volume wide receiver who wasn’t as good as his stats suggested last season. He only caught 51.2% of his targets (65 catches on 127 targets) and only caught 39 passes on balls that went 10 or fewer yards through the air, 71st most in the NFL. He’s pretty much just a deep threat who was overstretched last season. He’ll catch more passes in the Ravens’ new west coast offense under Gary Kubiak, but he’s not an ideal fit for the offense because of his limited route running ability. It’s possible he develops more this season, only going into his age 25 season.

71 catches for 1050 yards and 6 touchdowns (141 pts standard)

TE Dennis Pitta (Baltimore)

Pitta missed 12 games with a hip problem last off-season and was limited upon his return. Still, he caught 20 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown in 4 games, which extrapolates to 80 catches for 716 yards and 4 touchdowns over 16 games. He did that on 128 routes run, an average of 1.32 yards per route run. He caught a lot of passes in those 4 games, but showed little explosiveness. Now he should be completely healthy and he’s going into a system under Gary Kubiak that benefits tight ends. The Ravens obviously believe in him, giving him a 5-year, 32.5 million dollar deal ahead of free agency this off-season. He’s never had more than 61 catches for 669 yards and 7 touchdowns in a season, which he did in 2012, when he averaged 1.69 yards per route run, but I see him exceeding that this season.

65 catches for 760 yards and 6 touchdowns (112 pts standard)

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