2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews

St. Louis Rams Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Rams, Uncategorized

QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

Bradford had shown signs of becoming the long-term answer at quarterback for the Rams last season. Bradford completed 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 2013. That TD:INT ratio looks pretty good, but I put more stock in completion percentages and YPAs because they show you what happens on a greater percentage of snaps. Even if Bradford has a breakout season, he won’t throw an interception on just 1.5% of throws like he did last season.

Bradford set a career high in completion percentage and had the 2nd best YPA of his career, but neither 60.7% nor 6.44 YPA is really that impressive. On top of that, Bradford went down with a torn ACL after 7 games and missed the rest of the season. We’ve seen better quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Robert Griffin, Carson Palmer) all struggle in their first season back from that type of injury so it doesn’t really bode well for his chances. He’s now has a torn ACL, a serious knee injury, and a serious shoulder injury on his resume in the last 5 seasons, dating back to his final season at Oklahoma.

3500 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (208 pts standard)

RB Zac Stacy (St. Louis)

Zac Stacy only averaged 3.89 yards per carry (973 yards and 7 touchdowns on 250 carries) last season, including just 3.59 yards per carry in the 2nd half of the season (625 yards and 7 touchdowns on 174 carries). Stacy rushed for 2.45 yards per carry after contact, as the 5-8 216 pounder ran with great power and strength, but he didn’t average a high YPC overall because he doesn’t have great burst or ability to turn into a 2nd gear. There’s a reason he fell to the 5th round in the 2013 NFL Draft. The Rams drafted Tre Mason in the 3rd round and he’ll be his primary backup. Mason could cut into Stacy’s carries. Stacy carried the ball 249 times in his 12 starts (an average of 20.75 carries per game, 332 carries over 16 games). He’ll be lucky if he gets to 280 carries this season. There are better RB2s.

260 carries for 1070 yards, 8 total touchdowns, 28 catches for 170 yards (172 pts standard)

WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

The 8th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Tavon Austin only caught 40 passes for 415 yards and 4 touchdowns on 62 attempts (61.5%) on 305 routes run, an average of 1.37 yards per route run as a rookie. He contributed as a runner (9 carries for 151 yards and a touchdown) and a return man (18 kickoff returns for 398 yards and 33 punt returns for 280 yards and a touchdown), but not as a pass catcher. That’s led to a lot of people calling him a bust, but I think that’s really premature.

Rookie wide receivers rarely do anything. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Austin could be a lot better in his 2nd year in the league. He finished the season out well, catching 9 passes for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns in his final 4 games. That’s 844 yards and 8 scores over a 16-game season. There’s upside with him in the late rounds.

60 catches for 740 yards and 5 touchdowns, 100 rushing yards (114 pts standard)

WR Kenny Britt (St. Louis)

Kenny Britt is one of the real fantasy wild cards this season. The 2009 1st round pick looked on his way to a promising career in 2010 and 2011. After averaging 1.86 yards per route run as a rookie in 2009, Britt averaged an absurd 3.07 yards per route run in 2010 and 2011, catching a combined 59 passes for 1064 yards and 12 touchdowns on a combined 347 routes run. However, a torn ACL suffered 3 games into 2011 derailed his career big-time. As good as he was in 2010 and 2011, he only played a combined 15 games thanks to multiple injuries, including that torn ACL. He averaged just 1.49 yards per route run in 2012.

In 2013, his final year in Tennessee, he was a train wreck. He only caught a third of his 33 targets, with 11 catches for 96 yards and he dropped 7 passes. He averaged just 0.48 yards per route run on 201 routes run. He was the definition of awful and also got into it with his coaches, which is why he had to settle for a minimum deal in free agency. He’s reportedly dominating off-season practices though, which is why he’s listed as a starter. I’m still skeptical, but he’s only going into his age 26 season, we know he has insane natural talent, and he has every reason to give 110%.

40 catches for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

The Rams’ leading receiver in 2013 was tight end Jared Cook, who caught 51 passes for 671 yards and 5 touchdowns. Still, he didn’t really live up to the insane 5-year, 35.11 million dollar deal he got last off-season. That deal was undeserved as he’s not much of a run blocker and he’s maxed out at 49 catches for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns. My guess is either he or Austin leads this team in receiving yards, but Austin has more upside. Cook is a low end TE1 at best.

54 catches for 700 yards and 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard)

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Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Projections 2014

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QB Carson Palmer (Arizona)

Palmer completed 63.3% of his passes last season for an average of 7.47 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, a solid QB rating of 83.9. However, he’s going into his age 35 season and could hit a wall in terms of his abilities at any time at his age. The Cardinals drafted Logan Thomas in the 4th round for that reason. He’s a weak QB2.

4000 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 21 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (207 pts standard)

RB Andre Ellington (Arizona)

6th round rookie Andre Ellington rushed for 652 yards and 3 touchdowns on 118 carries in 2013, an average of 5.52 yards per carry. He also added 39 catches for 371 yards and a touchdown through the air. However, he didn’t see that many touches, even though lead back Rashard Mendenhall averaged just 3.17 yards per carry. Mendenhall is now gone so Ellington will become the lead back. The Cardinals seem to have finally realized what they have with him as they’ve been talking him up as a feature back all off-season.

Ellington is only 5-9 199 and the Cardinals were concerned about his ability to carry a load, which could have some merits, but he was definitely deserving of a bigger role. The 2013 6th round pick probably won’t average 5.52 yards per carry again this season, in a bigger role, but he should still average a high YPC and he could approach 300 touches as a three down back. The Cardinals have no real competition for him with only Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor behind him on the depth chart.

240 carries for 1130 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 50 catches for 450 yards (200 pts standard)

WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

Floyd broke out in his 2nd year in the league in 2013, as the 13th overall pick in 2012 caught 65 passes for 1041 yards and 5 touchdowns on 107 targets (60.7%) and 569 routes run, an average of 1.83 yards per route run. He’s still a one year wonder as an NFL player, after struggling as a rookie, but rookie receivers tend to struggle anyway and he’s got a ton of talent. He could be even better in his 3rd year in the league.

68 catches for 1080 yards and 8 touchdowns (156 pts standard)

WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

While Floyd’s career is on the up, Larry Fitzgerald’s career is on the way down, as he heads into his age 31 season. Fitzgerald has gone under 1000 yards receiving in each of the last 2 seasons. His 71/798/4 line in 2012 was understandable because he had supremely terrible quarterback play, but even with better quarterback play, he only caught 82 passes for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013. That’s obviously still very solid, but this is the guy who averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games from 2005-2011, even though he never really had great quarterback play, except for those couple Warner years. Now in his 30s, he’s simply not the same player any more.

75 catches for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns (132 pts standard)

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Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Football Projections 2014

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QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

Russell Wilson, a 2012 3rd round pick, has proven to be one of the greatest draft steals in NFL history. Obviously he got a lot of help from his supporting cast en route to winning the Super Bowl in his 2nd season in the league, but he did a lot of it on his own, completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 8.09 YPA, 52 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in 2 seasons in the league (100.6 QB rating). He’s also added 1028 yards and 5 touchdowns rushing on 190 carries (5.41 YPC) in 2 seasons. He’s locked in as a QB1 again.

3200 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 500 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns (282 pts standard)

RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

Lynch, a former first round pick run out of Buffalo, has completely turned around his career over the past 3 seasons in Seattle, rushing for 4051 yards and 35 touchdowns on 901 carries (4.50 yards per carry) and adding 87 catches for 724 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. However, there’s some reason for concern. Lynch is going into his age 28 season with 1753 career carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.52 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. Lynch is 52nd all-time with 7389 rushing yards.

He’s not at the level where the Seahawks should be worried that his abilities completely fall off a cliff, but age is starting to become a factor. He could show some decline this season, especially since he’s had 988 regular season touches over the past 3 regular seasons combined. Last season, he had 403 touches including post-season, most in the NFL. That’s especially concerning considering his violent running style. On top of that, Lynch missed a significant amount of off-season practices with a holdout, which won’t help him.

270 carries for 1160 yards, 10 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 220 yards (198 pts standard)

RB Christine Michael (Seattle)

The good news is the Seahawks have Christine Michael waiting in the wings behind him. The 2013 2nd round pick didn’t do much as a rookie, with 18 carries for 79 yards and just 26 snaps played, but he’s drawn rave reviews this off-season going into his 2nd year in the league. He’ll siphon some carries off from Lynch as they try to keep the veteran fresh and take over as the lead back in 2015 and beyond. Given the success in running backs drafted outside of the first round over the past few years, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he turned into an above average starter long-term. He’s worth a late round pick in re-draft leagues, especially for Lynch owners, and he’s definitely worth your attention in dynasty and keeper leagues.

100 carries for 460 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 10 catches for 90 yards (73 pts standard)

WR Percy Harvin (Seattle)

The Seahawks acquired Percy Harvin from the Vikings for a 1st and 3rd round pick last off-season, but he only played 20 snaps thanks to injury. Harvin was dominant in Minnesota, averaging 2.45 yards per route run in his first 4 seasons in the league despite less than stellar quarterback play. He also adds value as a ball carrier (683 yards and 4 touchdowns on 107 carries).

However, he’s missed 25 games in 5 seasons, including 22 games over the past 2 seasons. If he’s on the field, he should average over 2 yards per route run (while adding value as a runner and a return man), even if he doesn’t get targeted as frequently as he did in Minnesota (targeted on 28.75% of routes run), but his statistical production will be limited by how run heavy the offense is and injuries are still an obvious concern. He’s never had more than 1000 yards or 390 routes run in a season and I don’t expect either of those things to change this season.

60 catches for 780 yards and 6 touchdowns, 150 rushing yards (129 pts standard)

WR Doug Baldwin (Seattle)

Doug Baldwin hasn’t been incredibly productive in his career thus far, as the 2011 undrafted free agent has posted lines of 51/788/4 and 50/778/5 in 2011 and 2013 respectively, with a 29/366/3 line in 2012 in between. However, much of that is because of much of a run heavy team the Seahawks are. He averaged 1.83 yards per route run (on 425 routes run) in 2013 and he’s averaged 1.91 yards per route run in his career. He’s only a low upside late round pick though, even with Golden Tate and Sidney Rice gone. He’s a better real football player than fantasy football player.

52 catches for 750 yards and 5 touchdowns (105 pts standard)

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San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Projections 2014

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QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

In the 8 games Kaepernick played with Michael Crabtree last season, Kaepernick completed 59.2% of his passes for an average of 7.78 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in those 8 games, numbers more reminiscent of 2012. That’s as opposed to 56.7% completion, 7.41 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in their other 11 games. Now he has a full season of Michael Crabtree healthy, to go with Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and Steve Johnson. The 49ers’ receivers are now more talented than their running backs and with NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Glenn Dorsey all expected to miss significant time with injury on defense, their defense won’t be as good, which will force them to pass more often. There’s a lot of potential here.

3750 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 400 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns (302 pts standard)

RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

Frank Gore is going into his age 31 season with 2187 career touches. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000-yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.52 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. Gore is “only” 29th all-time with 9,967 rushing yards and he could easily see his abilities completely fall off of a cliff this season or suffer some sort of significant injury.

He already showed signs of decline last season, rushing for 1128 yards and 9 touchdowns on 276 carries, an average of just 4.09 yards per carry. That’s the worst YPC season of his career. He was even worse in the 2nd half of the season, averaging 3.61 yards per carry on 164 carries in his final 10 games, going over 4 yards per carry in just 3 games and totaling 3 touchdowns. He also doesn’t do much as a pass catcher anymore, with 61 catches for 489 yards and a touchdown over the past 3 seasons combined.

210 carries for 840 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 15 catches for 100 yards (136 pts standard)

RB Carlos Hyde (San Francisco)

Carlos Hyde, a 2nd round rookie, will be Gore’s primary backup and has a good chance of being their lead back long-term. He could end up having a significant role as a rookie if Gore gets hurt or declines significantly this season. That’s certainly not unlikely, so Hyde is worth a late round flier, especially for owners who ended up with Gore.

120 carries for 520 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 18 catches for 140 yards (96 pts standard)

WR Michael Crabtree (San Francisco)

Down the stretch in 2012, Crabtree looked on his way to finally becoming the top receiver the 49ers envisioned he’d become when they drafted him 10th overall in 2009. After Kaepernick took over as the starter full time in week 11, Crabtree caught 61 passes for 880 yards and 8 touchdowns in 10 games, including playoffs. That’s 98 catches for 1408 yards and 13 touchdowns over 16 games. The issue is he tore his Achilles in May of 2013, which caused him to miss 11 games in 2013 and limited him upon his return.

Last season, he caught 34 passes for 487 yards and a touchdown in 8 games (including playoffs), 68 passes for 974 yards and 2 touchdowns over 16 games, which is nowhere near as good as he was down the stretch in 2012, but incredibly impressive considering he was just 6-8 months removed from that injury. Assuming he’s healthy, and he should be as he’ll be 16+ months removed from his injury, Crabtree could surpass his career best line of 85/1105/9 from 2012, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked wide receiver, catching 72.0% of targets for an average of 2.55 yards per route run. The 49ers will pass more often this season with Frank Gore aging and their defense taking big hits this off-season and Crabtree should be Kaepernick’s #1 guy.

84 catches for 1160 yards and 9 touchdowns (170 pts standard)

WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)

The 49ers’ leading receiver last season in Crabtree’s absence was Anquan Boldin, who caught 85 passes for 1179 yards and 7 touchdowns on 123 targets (69.1%) and 462 routes run, an average of 2.55 yards per route run. Unlike Davis, he didn’t have his production affected by Crabtree’s return. In fact, he was even more productive with Crabtree in the lineup, as he caught 49 passes for 682 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 8 games that Crabtree played, as opposed to 52 passes for 724 yards and 5 touchdowns in the other 11 games.

The issue is he’s going into his age 34 season. That being said, he didn’t show any decline last season. In fact, he had one of the best seasons of his career, going above 1000 yards for the first time since 2009. He also doesn’t have a significant injury history and has only missed 4 games over the past 5 seasons combined. On top of that, he’s never been someone reliant on his athleticism, dominating with his ability to make contested catches first and foremost, and that’s not something that’s going to go away with age as fast as athleticism might. He won’t be as good as last season though. He could also see fewer targets just because Crabtree is now 100%. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finished with a receiving yards total between 837 and 921, like he did in every season from 2010-2012.

68 catches for 910 yards and 7 touchdowns (133 pts standard)

TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

One player that Crabtree’s return will hurt is tight end Vernon Davis. When Crabtree is in the lineup, Kaepernick tends to ignore Vernon Davis. In 18 games with Crabtree in the lineup and Kaepernick under center, including playoffs, Davis has 43 catches for 679 yards and 8 touchdowns and he has 38 catches for 623 yards and 9 touchdowns in the other 10 games he’s played with Kaepernick under center. The 49ers haven’t passed enough for both Crabtree and Davis to put up big numbers. The good news is the 49ers might open it up more this season, with their defense taking big hits this off-season and their pass catchers now being better than their running backs, which would get Davis more targets. Don’t expect huge things from him though.

48 catches for 700 yards and 7 touchdowns (112 pts standard)

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Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Projections 2014

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RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

Peterson didn’t repeat the 2000 rushing yard season he had in 2012, but he still impressed, rushing for 1266 yards and 10 touchdowns on 279 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC. In his career, he’s rushed for 10,115 yards (already 27th all-time) and 86 touchdowns on 2033 carries, an average of 4.98 YPC. There is minor concern with his age as he goes into his age 29 season with 2033 career carries and he’s not the pass catcher that either Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy is, but he’s locked in as a top-3 running back.

310 carries for 1460 yards and 12 touchdowns, 32 catches for 250 yards (243 pts standard)

WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

Jennings was dominant in Green Bay from 2007-2011, averaging 2.12 yards per route run over that stretch (5532 yards on 2604 routes). However, he missed 3 games with injury in 2011 and then another 8 in 2012 and that seemed to sap his abilities. He averaged just 1.28 yards per route run in 2012 and, though he was healthier last year, he averaged just 1.62 yards per route run. Going into his age 31 season, there isn’t a lot of upside here.

61 catches for 760 yards and 4 touchdowns (100 pts standard)

WR Cordarelle Patterson (Minnesota)

The 29th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Patterson flashed his incredible athleticism, rushing for 158 yards and 3 touchdowns on 12 carries and returning 43 kickoffs for 1393 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also averaged 6.4 yards per catch after the catch and broke 10 tackles on 45 catches, but he showed serious issues with route running, catching just 10 passes farther than 10 yards downfield and just 3 passes farther than 20 yards downfield. He was limited primarily to short routes and screens and also dropped 5 passes. He caught 45 passes on 72 targets (62.5%) for 469 yards and 4 touchdowns on 292 routes run (1.61 yards per route run). He’s expected to have a bigger role in his 2nd year in the league and he has the natural ability to have a breakout year, but he’s only going into his age 23 season so there should be no surprises if he continues to be raw.

56 catches for 720 yards and 5 touchdowns, 120 rushing yards (114 pts standard)

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

Kyle Rudolph only averaged 1.11 yards per route run in his first 2 seasons in the league, as the big bodied tight end was used primarily as a blocker and ran just 30.1% of his routes off of the line of scrimmage.  In 2013, he looked on his way to a much better receiving year, as he averaged 1.34 yards per route run, running about 40.3% of his routes from off the line. Unfortunately, he went down for the season with a foot injury after 8 games. However, now he returns for his contract year and tight end guru Norv Turner is coming in. Rudolph has slimmed down to 6-6 260 from 275 and will be used more as a pass catcher and line up all over the formation in passing situations, much like Turner did with Antonio Gates in San Diego and Jordan Cameron in Cleveland. It wouldn’t be ridiculous to expect him to average 1.50 yards per route run (especially with better quarterback play) and for him to be 2nd on the team in receiving.

58 catches for 720 yards and 6 touchdowns (108 pts standard)

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Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Projections 2014

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QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

Last season, in his first season under Marc Trestman, Jay Cutler set a career high in QB rating, completing 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.38 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, a QB rating of 89.2, significantly better than his career average of 84.6. He was even better before suffering an ankle injury week 7, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. The issue is he hasn’t played a full season in 2009. If I had to guess, Cutler will have worse numbers than the combined 4450 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions Bear quarterbacks (Cutler and Josh McCown) threw last season.

4100 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 180 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (280 pts standard)

RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

Last season Forte was the definition of a three-down back, leading the position in snaps played with 940, 50 snaps more than any other running back in the NFL. It’s rare to find a running back who is well-rounded enough to stay on the field for every passing down and he was a big part of their passing game last season. He rushed for 1339 yards and 9 touchdowns on 289 carries, 4.63 YPC. He also caught 74 passes for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns. If he doesn’t get injured or decline, he should have another strong season, but there’s a good chance he does get injured or decline. He’s going into his age 29 season with 1892 career touches in 6 seasons so it’s starting to become a concern.

270 carries for 1190 yards, 10 total touchdowns, 65 catches for 540 yards (233 pts standard)

WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

Marshall has had some issues with teammates and off-the-field, but on-the-field, he’s been as steady as they come, with 7 straight 1000 yard seasons in which he’s missed a combined 4 games. As a result, he’s already 55th all-time in receiving yards with 9050. If I had to guess over/under last year’s 100 catches for 1295 yards and 12 touchdowns, I’d guess under because I don’t expect the Bears to have as good quarterback play this season, with McCown gone, but he’s still a low end WR1.

90 catches for 1220 yards and 9 touchdowns (176 pts standard)

WR Alshon Jeffery (Chicago)

Jeffery caught 89 passes for 140 targets (63.6%) for 1421 yards on 601 routes run, an average of 2.36 yards per route run. He isn’t as proven as Marshall and he didn’t draw as much coverage as Marshall did last season, but he was more productive than him in the passing game last season. He also added 106 yards on the ground. Going into his 3rd year in the league, Jeffery could easily be just as, if not more productive next season.

82 catches for 1240 yards and 9 touchdowns, 80 rushing yards (186 pts standard)

TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago)

A talented backup in Dallas, dominant as a run blocker, but working sparingly in the passing game behind Jason Witten, Bennett, a 2009 2nd round pick, has broken out as a starter over the past 2 seasons, averaging 60 catches for 693 yards and 5 touchdowns. He should post similar numbers as a low-end TE1 again this season.

59 catches for 710 yards and 5 touchdowns (101 pts standard)

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Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Projections 2014

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QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

Stafford, the first overall pick in 2009, struggled in his first 2 years in the NFL, missing 19 games and completing 54.5% of his passes for an average of 5.92 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. However, he’s played all 48 games over the past 3 seasons, completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.24 YPA, 90 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions. He’s also been better than his numbers, as he had 46 passes dropped in 2011 (most in the NFL), 49 passes dropped in 2012 (2nd most in the NFL), and 59 passes dropped in 2013 (most in the NFL). Now he gets Golden Tate and Eric Ebron added into the mix, which turns their receiving corps from a weakness into a strength. He’s an underrated fantasy asset.

4725 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (305 pts standard)

RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

The Lions are planning on scaling back Bush’s role as a runner, as new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes over from the Sean Payton coaching tree in New Orleans and plans to use Bush as they did with Darren Sproles in New Orleans. Sproles caught an average of 77 passes over the past 3 seasons. Reggie Bush has caught an average of 44 over the past 3 seasons and could catch 60 passes this season. At the same time, he could see his carries drop down from 223 to the 140-160 range, as he goes into his age 29 season.

160 carries for 720 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 60 catches for 540 yards (150 pts standard)

RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

Any loss in carries by Bush will be the benefit of Joique Bell, which Bush has said publicly he is fine with. The Lions have been a pass happy, 3-wide receiver team over the past 3 seasons, averaging 680 pass attempts over the past 3 seasons. Now they will be more of a traditional offense. They used their first round pick on Eric Ebron, which means they’ll use more two-tight end sets (though they obviously still have the ability to throw out of two-tight end sets). They signed a traditional fullback in Jed Collins, who comes with Lombardi over New Orleans. They also gave a 3-year, 9.3 million dollar extension to restricted free agent Joique Bell, who figures to lead the team in carries in their new more traditional offense. The 5-11 220 pounder is their best traditional runner.

Bell doesn’t have as many breakaway runs as Bush, but he had 65 first downs on 219 touches last season, while Bush had 68 first downs on 277 touches. The Lions could easily be getting a steal with that 3-year deal. Over the past 2 seasons, Bell has been one of the more important backup running backs in the NFL. Last season, he played 562 snaps, 23rd most in the NFL among running backs. In the past 2 seasons, he’s averaged 4.29 yards per carry, while serving as a valuable goal line back (11 touchdowns) and receiver out of the backfield (105 catches).

200 carries for 860 yards, 8 total touchdowns, 60 catches for 500 yards (184 pts standard)

WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

Johnson had a “down year” in 2013 with 84 catches for 1492 yards and 12 touchdowns, his lowest catch and yardage totals since 2010. That was really only because he missed 2 games with injury (after playing all 16 games in the previous 2 seasons). Last season was actually the best season of Johnson’s career in terms of yards per route run, as he averaged 2.72 yards per route run. He’s averaged 2.55 yards per route run over the past 3 seasons since Stafford broke out as a starter. He’s the #1 wide receiver in fantasy football and real football.

95 catches for 1650 yards and 14 touchdowns (249 pts standard)

WR Golden Tate (Detroit)

The Lions signed Golden Tate to a 5-year, 31 million dollar deal with 13.25 million guaranteed this off-season. Golden Tate has never had a 1000 yard season, but he’s been stuck on a run heavy team in Seattle, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. He caught 45 passes on 65 attempts (69.2%) for 688 yards and 7 touchdowns on 378 routes run (1.80 yards per route run) in 2012. In 2013, he caught 64 passes on 93 attempts (68.8%) for 898 yards and 5 touchdowns on 447 routes run (2.01 yards per route run). Tate will see plenty of single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson and could run 500-600 routes in a pass heavier offense. He won’t see any downgrade in terms of his quarterback’s passing ability going from Russell Wilson and Matt Stafford and he could easily have 1000 receiving yards.

74 catches for 1020 yards and 8 touchdowns (150 pts standard)

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Green Bay Packers Fantasy Football Projections 2014

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QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

Over the past 5 seasons, Rodgers has played 71 games (only missing 2 games combined from 2009-2012) and completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.40 YPA, 159 touchdowns, and 38 interceptions, a QB rating of 108.2. He’s also rushed for 1308 yards and 14 touchdowns on 266 carries, an average of 4.92 YPC. He missed 8 games with injury last season, but as long as he’s on the field (and his injury history is pretty limited), Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, if not the best. I prefer him in fantasy to Peyton Manning, both in terms of value at their respective ADP and overall, because he adds value as a runner.

4450 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (344 pts standard)

RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

In 2013, Lacy rushed for 1178 yards and 11 touchdowns on 284 attempts, an average of 4.15 YPC. He also added 35 catches for 257 yards, en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. That YPC doesn’t seem terribly impressive, but he consistently carried the load, got positive yardage, and moved the chains. He had 73 first downs on 319 targets, including 61 first downs on 284 carries. He was 5th among running backs in rushing first downs.

On top of that, he played his best football when Aaron Rodgers was out of the lineup, helping to carry this team. He rushed for 666 yards and 7 touchdowns on 151 carries, an average of 4.41 YPC, and added 21 catches for 164 yards in the 8 games Rodgers missed. In their other 8 games, he rushed for 512 yards and 4 touchdowns on 133 carries, an average of 3.85 YPC, and added 14 catches for 103 yards. Going into his 2nd year in the league, Lacy could be even better, after playing most of his rookie year through an ankle injury. A full season of Aaron Rodgers will give him more running room and touchdown opportunities and if he runs like he did when Rodgers was out last year, he’ll give the Packers an incredibly potent balanced offense and be a top-5 running back in fantasy football.

300 carries for 1320 yards, 13 total touchdowns, 40 catches for 300 yards (240 pts standard)

WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

Last season, Nelson caught 85 passes on 120 targets (70.8%) for 1314 yards and 8 touchdowns on 645 routes run, an average of 2.04 yards per route run. He was outstanding in the 8 games that Rodgers played last season, catching 49 passes on 67 targets (73.1%) for 810 yards and 8 touchdowns on 327 routes run, an average of 2.48 yards per route run. However, he was still alright when Rodgers was out of the lineup, catching 36 passes on 53 targets (67.9%) for 504 yards and a touchdown on 318 routes run, an average of 1.54 yards per route run. Last year was a career high for him in catches and yards and he should have another strong year this year. One issue is that, he may see fewer targets this season because Randall Cobb is coming back from injury.

82 catches for 1280 yards and 9 touchdowns (182 pts standard)

WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)

Cobb had a breakout year in 2012, catching 80 passes on 102 targets (78.4%) for 954 yards and 8 touchdowns on 422 routes run, an average of 2.26 yards per route run. He was Pro Football Focus’ #11 ranked wide receiver that season. He looked on his way to a similar season in 2013, but injuries derailed that, limiting him to 6 games. He caught 31 passes on 40 targets (77.5%) for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns on 209 routes run, an average of 2.07 yards per route run. Going into his contract year this year, without much of an injury history, he should have another year similar to 2012.

80 catches for 950 yards and 8 touchdowns, 100 rushing yards (153 pts standard)

WR Jarrett Boykin (Green Bay)

Jarrett Boykin stepped up in Cobb’s absence, catching 49 passes on 75 targets (65.3%) for 681 yards on 410 routes run, an average of 1.66 yards per route run. Boykin was a 2012 7th round pick and only played 96 snaps as a rookie. He’s a marginal talent that Aaron Rodgers makes look better than he is and he’s only their #3 target at best. That being said, James Jones is gone so Boykin will probably replace him and his production. He had 59 catches on 88 targets (67.0%) for 817 yards on 527 routes run (1.55 yards per route run) and 3 touchdowns last season. There’s some late round appeal with him, particularly if either Nelson or Cobb get hurt this season.

50 catches for 700 yards and 6 touchdowns (106 pts standard)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

Doug Martin, a 2012 1st round pick, had a great rookie year, rushing for 1454 yards and 11 touchdowns on 319 carries, 4.56 YPC, and adding 49 catches for 472 yards and another score. His sophomore season was about the opposite. Martin lasted 6 games before going down for the season with a shoulder injury and in those 6 games, he rushed for 456 yards and a touchdown on 127 carries, 3.59 YPA, and added just 12 catches for 66 yards.

Martin should be healthier this season and he should bounce back somewhat as a runner, but he has an injury history dating back to his collegiate days and he’s still a one year wonder in terms of being a proven NFL running back. Martin’s 2012 seems out of reach for him at the moment, especially given how bad the Buccaneers’ run blocking could be this season. The Buccaneers have also mentioned on multiple occasions that they want to use more of a committee in the backfield. 3rd round rookie Charles Sims could be done for the season, but Mike James and Bobby Rainey could still siphon off carries.

240 carries for 1030 yards, 8 total touchdowns, 41 catches for 340 yards (185 pts standard)

WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

Vincent Jackson is the only proven pass catcher the Buccaneers have. Over the past 6 seasons, he’s caught 351 passes for 6227 yards and 43 touchdowns on 624 targets (56.3%) and 2835 routes run, an average of 2.20 yards per route run. He’s a deep threat and not a consistent volume receiver, but he’s one of the better wide receivers in the league. The one minor concern is that he’s going into his age 31 season, but that’s probably not a problem yet.

70 catches for 1180 yards and 7 touchdowns (160 pts standard)

WR Mike Evans (Tampa Bay)

Evans is really talented, but he’s a raw rookie who doesn’t even turn 21 until the end of August. Rookie wide receivers tend to struggle anyway, even first round talents.  Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Let someone else overdraft him.

50 catches for 750 yards and 6 touchdowns (111 pts standard)

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Tampa Bay)

I mentioned wide receivers struggle as rookie. The same isn’t necessarily true for tight ends, but Seferian-Jenkins is a mere 2nd round rookie and won’t necessarily even start as the Buccaneers have yet to give him the starting job over Brandon Myers. That should remind you to temper your expectations for him in his rookie year because Myers isn’t very good.

45 catches for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

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Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Falcons, Uncategorized

QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

Last season, Matt Ryan had his worst quarterback rating since 2009, but a quarterback rating of 89.6 is still really solid and most of his statistical decline can be attributed to the decline of his supporting cast. He completed 67.4% of his passes for an average of 6.94 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. For his career, he’s completed 63.7% of his passes for an average of 7.14 YPA, 153 touchdowns, and 77 interceptions. He’s one of the better quarterbacks in the league and with his offensive supporting cast likely to be much better this season, he should once again lead one of the NFL’s more explosive and dangerous offenses. He’s a QB1.

4725 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (297 pts standard)

RB Steven Jackson (Atlanta)

Last season, Steven Jackson was limited to 157 carries in 12 games and rushed for just 543 yards and 6 touchdowns, a pathetic average of 3.46 yards per carry. Jackson probably won’t be better or healthier this season. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.52 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. Jackson has rushed for 10,678 yards (20th all-time), but Jackson is going into his age 31 season with 2553 career carries, so what happened last season is no surprise and should be seen as the beginning of a very swift end.

160 carries for 640 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 210 yards (121 pts standard)

RB Devonta Freeman (Atlanta)

The Falcons drafted Devonta Freeman in the 4th round, realizing they needed help at running back. He has a good chance to open the see as the primary backup to Jackson and have a significant role from the start. And if Jackson continues to struggle or gets hurt, that role will grow. If I had to guess, he’ll lead Falcon running backs in yards from scrimmage this season. That being said, while there are a lot of people who will vouch for Freeman as another running back who will prove to be a steal in the mid rounds, he’s still just a 4th round rookie and could easily struggle this season.

150 carries for 620 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 280 yards (114 pts standard)

WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

Jones, the 6th overall pick in 2011, showed himself as one of the best young wide receivers in the game in his first 2 seasons in the league. In 2011 and 2012 combined, he caught 133 passes on 218 targets (61.0%) for 2157 yards and 18 touchdowns on 1035 routes run, an average of 2.08 yards per route run. He looked on his way to a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league (a common breakout year for wide receivers) in 2013, catching 41 passes on 57 targets (71.9%) for 580 yards and 2 touchdowns on 212 routes run, an average of 2.74 yards per route run, best in the NFL among eligible receivers.

However, he broke his foot 5 games into the season and missed the rest of the year, killing his chance at that breakout year. He has a troubling injury history, particularly with his foot, dating back to his collegiate days. The good news is that reports out of training camp are really promising and he’s only going into his age 25 season. If he can stay healthy, he could absolutely dominate the NFL this season and make life much easier for Matt Ryan. Just for fun, his stats in 2013 extrapolate to 131 catches for 1856 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games. He won’t reach that level of production, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he led the NFL in receiving if he stays healthy.

90 catches for 1500 yards and 12 touchdowns (222 pts standard)

WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

White missed 3 games and was severely limited for most of last season with leg problems, catching 20 passes for 209 yards and a touchdown in the first 8 games he played last season. Those 3 games were the first games he missed in his career and last season was the first season since the 2nd season of his career in 2006 that he had fewer than 1000 yards. The once reliably solid wide receiver no longer is. He did finish last season on a tear, catching 43 passes for 502 yards and 2 touchdowns in the final 5 games of the season once he got healthy, which could be promising for 2014.

However, his age and the fact that he’s coming off of a serious injury plagued down season are both concerns. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. White isn’t quite there right now, but he’s at the point in his career where is age is becoming a concern, going into his age 33 season. White’s 9,436 career receiving yards are “only” 45th all-time. White will still probably have a better year than last year if I had to put money on it, both in terms of production and efficiency, but his best days are behind him.

64 catches for 840 yards and 6 touchdowns (120 pts standard)

WR Harry Douglas (Atlanta)

With Tony Gonzalez gone, the Falcons will once again use a bunch of three-wide receiver sets this season. They’ll do a better job of that this year because White and Jones are healthier, allowing Harry Douglas to move back to his natural role on the slot as the Falcons’ 3rd receiver. Douglas caught 85 passes for 1067 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, but he showed himself to be overstretched as a number #1 receiver. His production was largely a result of volume and having Matt Ryan under center, as he averaged 1.66 yards per route run, dropped 9 passes, and had 7 interceptions on passes thrown to him. He’s a much better fit as the 3rd receiver. I don’t expect much fantasy production from him.

48 catches for 680 yards and 4 touchdowns (92 pts standard)

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