Year: 2014

Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

Roethlisberger’s 2013 season was right in line with his career averages as he completed 64.2% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, a QB rating of 92.0. In his career, he completes 63.3% of his passes for an average of 7.85 YPA, 219 touchdowns, and 122 interceptions, a QB rating of 92.6. He takes fewer shots downfield now under offensive coordinator Todd Haley, which has lowered his YPA, but he completes a higher percentage of his passes and has a better touchdown to interception ratio. One thing Roethlisberger did last season that was unusual is play all 16 games, something he had only done once in his career prior. He’s missed 17 games in 10 seasons and will probably miss a game or two with some sort of injury this season, as his playing style leads him to take a lot of hits.

Projection: 3800 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 120 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (254 pts standard)

RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

Le’Veon Bell, a 2013 2nd round pick, returns as the starter. He only rushed 860 yards and 8 touchdowns on 244 carries last season, an average of 3.52 YPC, but he broke tackles (46 broken tackles on 289 touches), got yards after contact (2.11 YPC after contact), and moved the chains (48 rushing first downs, 14th in the NFL). He also added 45 catches for 399 yards through the air. He missed 3 games and struggled through an injury at times, but now he’s going into his 2nd year in the league and he should be healthier. He rushed for 578 yards and 5 touchdowns on 164 carries (3.52 YPC) and caught 28 passes for 252 yards in his final 8 games. The issue is LeGarrette Blount is now around to steal carries, especially near the goal line.

240 carries for 960 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 55 catches for 480 yards (186 pts standard)

RB LeGarrette Blount (Pittsburgh)

LeGarrette Blount is a big name after what he did to the Colts in the playoffs, rushing for 166 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, people forget he had just 6 yards on 5 carries the following week in a loss in Denver. Blount averaged 5.19 yards per carry last season, including playoffs, on a combined 182 carries, but he was also available for a late round pick and a minimal salary the off-season prior, after averaging 4.14 yards per carry on 225 carries in 2011 and 2012 combined. His career average of 4.68 yards per carry is pretty solid, but he offers nothing as a pass catcher (23 career catches), pass protector, has minimal special teams experience (17 career returns), fumbles often (9 fumbles on 579 career carries) and has a history of discipline problems. He’ll get touches in Pittsburgh, especially around the goal line, but he’ll probably need a Bell injury to be relevant outside of deep leagues.

140 carries for 630 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 5 catches for 40 yards (103 pts standard)

WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

Because of their off-season losses at wide receiver, Antonio Brown could have even more targets this year than he did last year, when he was targeted 159 times, 4th most among wide receivers in the NFL. He caught 110 of those targets (69.2%) for 1498 yards and 8 touchdowns and averaged 2.37 yards per route run. The only player who had more receiving yards than him last season was Josh Gordon, who is currently expected to be suspended for the entire 2014 season.

Now fully out of the shadow of guys like Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Mike Wallace, Brown, 2010 6th round pick, is quietly one of the best wide receivers in the game. He’s caught 245 passes for 3394 yards and 15 touchdowns over the past 3 seasons combined and now he’s coming off of the best season of his career. He’s an excellent route runner and a perfect fit for Todd Haley’s system.

102 catches for 1440 yards and 7 touchdowns (186 pts standard)

TE Heath Miller (Pittsburgh)

Heath Miller could be 2nd on the team in targets. Miller was limited to 58 catches for 593 yards and a touchdown last season as he missed 2 games and was limited in others after tearing his ACL towards the end of the 2012 season. That should be behind him now and he was better towards the end of last season, as he caught 34 passes for 325 yards in his final 8 games. That extrapolates to 68 catches for 650 yards over 16 games. From 2009-2012, he averaged 60 catches for 687 yards and 5 touchdowns per season and he could easily have a year similar, if not better, than that this season as the Steelers’ 2nd option.

63 catches for 670 yards and 5 touchdowns (97 pts standard)

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Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Browns, Uncategorized

RB Ben Tate (Cleveland)

Ben Tate was drafted in the 2nd round in 2010 by the Texans to be the starting running back, but broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Upon his return from that injury, Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury.

Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.26 yards per carry on 181 carries. Tate clearly has the talent and toughness to be a lead back in the NFL, but he’s also missed 24 of 64 possible regular season games in his career thus far and is coming off of an injury plagued season. Staying healthy will be the key to him potentially having a breakout year.

200 carries for 840 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 220 yards (142 pts standard)

RB Terrance West (Cleveland)

West is a good value pick after the top running backs go. Ben Tate’s injury history is well documented and West is reportedly just a notch behind Tate in the coaching staff’s eyes anyway and could easily see a bunch of carries on a run heavy offense anyway. The 3rd round rookie could end up being a steal in the mid rounds.

160 carries for 700 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 24 catches for 180 yards (124 pts standard)

WR Andrew Hawkins (Cleveland)

Hawkins has flashed in 3 seasons with the Bengals since coming to them as an undrafted free agent in 2011, averaging 1.66 yards per route run in his career. However, he’s only run 598 routes in his career and caught 86 passes for 995 yards and 4 touchdowns. In the only season he got significant playing time, 2012, he caught 51 passes for 533 yards and 4 touchdowns on 384 routes run, 1.39 yards per route run. The Browns are hoping he’s a budding talent that was just buried on the depth chart in Cincinnati, giving him a 4-year, 13.6 million deal this off-season, but that might be wishful thinking. He’s their best wide receiver only by default, and doesn’t have a ton of fantasy value.

62 catches for 740 yards and 4 touchdowns (98 pts standard)

TE Jordan Cameron (Cleveland)

The only Browns pass catcher that does have fantasy value is tight end Jordan Cameron, who should lead the Browns in all receiving categories this season. However, he might not match the 80 catches for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns he had last season as the Browns won’t pass 681 times again this season. They could have 150-200 fewer passing attempts this season and Cameron only averaged 1.47 yards per route run last season. He could be more efficient this season, but I don’t see him having more than the 109 targets he had last season, 3rd in the NFL.

64 catches for 800 yards and 8 touchdowns (128 pts standard)

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Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

QB Andy Dalton (Cincinnati)

Andy Dalton will be a better real quarterback than fantasy quarterback this year with the Bengals going to a more run heavy offense. The Bengals had 33 passing touchdowns to 14 rushing touchdowns last season, which won’t happen again, and Dalton might not get over 500 attempts. He’s a QB2 with limited upside.

3500 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 220 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (246 pts standard)

RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

Under new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, the Bengals are going to be more run heavy. This is great news for Giovani Bernard. Bernard only had 170 carries as a rookie in 2013, rushing for 695 yards and 5 touchdowns, an average of 4.09 yards per carry, but he also caught 56 passes for 514 yards and another 3 touchdowns. Bernard might not have quite as many catches this season, but there will be more opportunity for him to carry the ball in his 2nd year in the league. He’s the lead back and could have 300+ touches.

Darren McFadden, a running back with a similar style skill set, but less career success, was great under Hue Jackson, rushing for 1771 yards on 336 carries, an average of 5.27 YPA, catching 66 passes for 661 yards and scoring 15 times total in 20 games from 2010-2011 under offensive coordinator and eventual head coach Hue Jackson. Bernard profiled similar to Ray Rice coming out of college and Rice had a similar rookie year, rushing for 454 yards on 107 carries and catching 33 passes for 273 yards. Rice didn’t break out until his 2nd year in the league, when he rushed for 1339 yards and 7 touchdowns on 254 carries and caught 78 passes for 702 yards and another touchdown, after he had a full year in an NFL training system to add weight. Bernard could have a similar year in his 2nd year in the league.

250 carries for 1100 yards, 10 total touchdowns, 50 catches for 450 yards (215 pts standard)

RB Jeremy Hill (Cincinnati)

Bernard will see a bunch of touches, but so will 2nd round rookie Jeremy Hill. They used a high pick on him and reports have been very favorable about him this off-season. Hill is a talented 6-1 235 pounder and will serve as an upgraded complement to Bernard, as compared to BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Hill won’t have the 224 touches that BJGE had last season, but he’ll see enough action to make a fantasy impact.

180 carries for 750 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 18 catches for 150 yards (132 pts standard)

WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

Green has averaged 2.25 yards per route run in his career. He’s only caught 59.0% of his career targets and had 26 drops, 19 penalties, and 22 interceptions when thrown to throughout his career, so he has some issues that don’t show up on a traditional stat sheet, but he’s still one of the better wide receivers in the game. He could see less production this year though in a more run heavy offense, but he’ll still be Dalton’s preferred target.

90 catches for 1250 yards and 10 touchdowns (185 pts standard)

TE Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati)

With Marvin Jones missing at least the first month of the season with injury, Tyler Eifert will be the Bengals’ #2 receiving option. The 2013 1st round pick is a better all-around player than Jermaine Gresham and could supplant him as the starting tight end. Either way, they will run a lot of two-tight end sets this season so Eifert will be on the field a lot. I expect him to finish 2nd on this team in receiving yards.

49 catches for 700 yards and 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard)

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Tennessee Titans Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

Injuries have sidetracked the former 8th overall pick’s career. He’s played in just 23 games in 3 seasons, working as a backup to veteran Matt Hasselbeck as a rookie and then missing a combined 14 games over the past 2 seasons with a variety of injuries. Last year, he suffered a hip injury after 4 starts, wasn’t the same upon his return, and then suffered a season ending foot injury 3 starts after his return from the first injury. In 2012, it was his shoulder. He seems really brittle. There are few QB2s with more upside though. In his career, he has 563 pass attempts, about a season’s worth, and he has 3974 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 15 interceptions and he’s rushed for another 502 yards and 4 scores. Those are low end QB1 numbers if he can stay healthy. He’s also coming off the best season of his career statistically and he gets quarterback guru Ken Whisenhunt as his head coach.

3600 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 280 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (236 pts standard)

RB Bishop Sankey (Tennessee)

Sankey doesn’t have ideal size at 5-9 209, but he ran a 4.49 40 and he runs harder than his size. He showed the ability to carry the load at Washington, with 677 touches over his final 2 seasons combined, but he doesn’t even turn 22 until September so his legs should be pretty fresh. He has three down ability and some considered him the top running back in the draft class. The Titans obviously did, making him the first running back off the board. Sankey should get the opportunity to be the feature back immediately in Tennessee because they don’t have much else at the running back position.

230 carries for 970 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 300 yards (169 pts standard)

RB Shonn Greene (Tennessee)

Shonn Greene, who had 77 carries last season, remains in the backup role, now behind Sankey. He’s only a backup caliber running back. He’s averaged just 4.14 YPC on 899 career carries and offers nothing on passing downs, with just 71 catches in 72 career games. He’s not going to get any better going into his age 29 season. He could see more playing time behind Sankey than he did behind Johnson, but his only value is as a handcuff for Sankey.

110 carries for 440 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 10 catches for 80 yards (76 pts standard)

RB Dexter McCluster (Tennessee)

The Titans brought McCluster in from Kansas City to play the Danny Woodhead role in Ken Whisenhunt’s offense. Woodhead had 106 carries for 429 yards, 76 catches for 605 yards, and 8 total touchdowns last season. McCluster isn’t as good and won’t play as big of a role, but if he even has half of Woodhead’s 2013 production, he’s worth rostering in PPR leagues.

50 carries for 220 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 40 catches for 320 yards (72 pts standard)

WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

Kendall Wright had a breakout year last year, catching 94 passes for 1079 yards, but he only scored twice. He’s an underrated fantasy asset because he should score more touchdowns this season. He’s the #1 option in an offense that could be better this season with potentially a full season of Jake Locker under center and Wright is going into his 3rd in the league and the 2012 1st round pick could be even better than last season.

78 catches for 1110 yards and 6 touchdowns (147 pts standard)

WR Justin Hunter (Tennessee)

One player the Titans are hoping can step up this season is Justin Hunter, a 2013 2nd round pick. Hunter played 340 snaps as a rookie and was pretty ordinary. He caught 18 passes for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns on 212 routes run, an average of 1.67 yards per route run. That’s a solid average, though he only caught 18 of 41 targets (43.9%) and had 5 drops. Rookie receivers don’t usually do much anyway though and Hunter was regarded as really raw coming out of the University of Tennessee. Going only into his age 23 season, the height, weight, speed freak (6-4, 196, 4.44 40) could become a contributor in 3-wide receiver sets.

42 catches for 650 yards and 5 touchdowns (95 pts standard)

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

Nate Washington continued his solid play last season, catching 58 passes for 919 yards and 3 touchdowns on 558 routes run, an average of 1.65 yards per route run. Over the past 3 seasons, Washington has caught 178 passes for 2688 yards and 14 touchdowns and averaged 1.62 yards per route run. However, there’s not much upside with him as he heads into his age 31 season with two young receivers in Wright and Hunter continuing to get better around him.

51 catches for 760 yards and 4 touchdowns (100 pts standard)

TE Delanie Walker (Tennessee)

The Titans signed Delanie Walker from the 49ers on a 4-year, 17.5 million dollar deal last off-season, hoping that Walker, who had never caught 30 passes in a season before last year, would become a better receiver with more playing time in Tennessee as the starting tight end. He was a backup to Vernon Davis in San Francisco. Walker was more productive, catching 60 passes for 571 yards and 6 touchdowns, but he wasn’t that efficient, averaging just 1.19 yards per route run. I expect more of the same from him this season. He’s a bye week filler at tight end only.

55 catches for 570 yards and 4 touchdowns (81 pts standard)

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Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Jaguars, Uncategorized

RB Toby Gerhart (Jacksonville)

The Jaguars signed former Vikings backup running back Toby Gerhart to be their starting running back and the Jaguars are talking him up as a 300+ carry three-down back. The 2010 2nd round pick clearly has some talent, averaging 4.73 YPC on 276 carries (1305 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns) in 4 years in the league. However, he has limited action, with an average of 69 carries per season. He has played the majority of his snaps in passing situations, meaning, when he does carry the ball, he’s doing it against a defensive front that’s not expecting the run.

The 6-0 231 pounder has caught 77 passes in his career, which is solid, but unspectacular. He has some three down potential, but he’s a serious projection to that role. The Jaguars are expected to pound the rock with Gerhart to take the pressure off of their passing game, though that plan is best executed when leading, which the Jaguars probably won’t be doing a lot of this season. He’ll be an RB2 on volume, but it’s hard to get excited about him, especially on such a poor offense.

250 carries for 1050 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 40 catches for 300 yards (177 pts standard)

WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

With Blackmon likely out for the season, Cecil Shorts will remain as the #1 receiver. Shorts showed potential in 2012, when he caught 55 passes for 979 yards and 7 touchdowns on 423 routes run, an impressive average of 2.31 yards per route run. He seemed poised for a breakout year in 2013 in a bigger role. However, Shorts didn’t live up to expectations and showed himself to pretty much just be a complementary receiver who needs someone opposite him to take the pressure off of him. He caught 66 passes on 117 targets (56.4%) for 777 yards and 3 touchdowns on 472 routes run in 2013, an average of 1.65 yards per route run. He’s also never played more than 14 games in a season in the 3 seasons he’s been in the league, showing a tendency to get injured, and is dealing with hamstring problems in training camp.

58 catches for 750 yards and 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard)

WR Marqise Lee (Jacksonville)

There’s been buzz about Marqise Lee this off-season, but I don’t trust rookie wide receivers, especially not ones who play in passing offenses like Jacksonville’s. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Lee wasn’t even good enough to go in the 2nd round. He should struggle out of the gate.

45 catches for 620 yards and 4 touchdowns (86 pts standard)

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Houston Texans Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Texans, Uncategorized

RB Arian Foster (Houston)

Foster was off to a strong start to last season, rushing for 542 yards and a touchdown on 121 carries, an average of 4.48 YPC. He finished 23rd among eligible running backs last season despite playing just 334 snaps, before going down with injury. Foster was breaking down before the injury though, largely as a result of the 1115 touches he had in the previous 3 seasons. His YPC went down from 4.94 YPC in 2010 to 4.40 YPC in 2011 to 4.06 YPC in 2012. Now coming off of a significant back injury and going into his age 28 season, he could continue breaking down. At the same time, he could also continue playing well, like he was last season, now that’s he’s had some time to rest and rebuild. My bet would be that he continues breaking down, after seeing him deal with more injuries in training camp, but there’s bounce back potential here.

240 carries for 1010 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 38 catches for 260 yards (169 pts standard)

WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

Johnson missed valuable time with a new quarterback and head coach thanks to an off-season holdout. He’s also going into his age 33 season, which makes that holdout even more concerning. Johnson’s 12,661 yards are 17th all-time and he could easily be Hall-of-Fame bound when it’s all said and done. However, even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Johnson isn’t quite there right now, but he’s at the point in his career where is age is becoming a concern. Couple that with poor quarterback play and the fact that he’s never been a big touchdown guy and you have someone who you should let be someone else’s problem in the early part of the draft.

88 catches for 1210 yards and 6 touchdowns (157 pts standard)

WR DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)

Any production Johnson loses this season should be the gain of 2nd year wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who was the 26th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Hopkins was working as the #1 receiver in Johnson’s absence, becoming better acquainted with the new offensive system and the new quarterback. Hopkins had a decent rookie year, catching 52 passes for 802 yards and 2 touchdowns. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 lines respectively as rookies, both inferior to Hopkins’ rookie year. Wide receivers usually take a year or so to get adjusted to the NFL and Hopkins could make a leap in his 2nd year in the league in 2014. Reports on him this off-season have been very promising.

59 catches for 930 yards and 5 touchdowns (123 pts standard)

TE Garrett Graham (Houston)

With the injury prone and aging Owen Daniels gone, Garrett Graham will once again be the #1 tight end. He rose to this role last season after Daniels went down for the season week 5. He caught caught 49 passes for 545 yards and 5 touchdowns last season and I expect more of the same from him this season. He’s a weak TE2.

48 catches for 590 yards and 4 touchdowns (83 pts standard)

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Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

In 2012, Luck relied on close victories against bad opponents, rather than his own strong play to win games, as he completed 54.1% of his passes for an average of 6.98 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. In 2013, he became a much improved quarterback, completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He also improved as a runner going from 255 yards and 5 touchdowns on 62 carries in 2012 (4.11 YPA) to 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on 63 carries in 2013 (5.98 YPA). He could be even better in his 3rd year in the league in 2014.

4150 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (292 pts standard)

RB Trent Richardson (Indianapolis)

Trent Richardson’s struggles last season are well documented. The 3rd pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Richardson averaged 2.92 yards per carry and scored 3 touchdowns on 157 carries in 14 games with the Colts. However, he averaged 1.90 yards per carry after contact and broke 47 tackles on 185 touches (he also added 28 catches for 265 yards and a touchdown), giving him the 10th highest elusive rating in the NFL. Richardson rushed for 3.56 yards per carry in 2012, but he ranked 16th in elusive rating, breaking 59 tackles on 318 touches and averaging 2.09 yards per carry after contact. In 2013 with the Browns, he rushed for 3.39 yards per carry. However, he rushed for 2.42 yards after contact and broke 16 tackles on 38 touches.

Much of Richardson’s struggles last season had to do with the Colts’ offensive line and he ran better than his numbers suggested. However, much of it also had to do with Richardson himself. Richardson showed poor vision and burst, which is part of why there were so few “blocked” yards from him to pick up. He wasn’t hitting the hole hard enough or in the right location, two things he’s had issues with since being drafted. On top of that, the Colts offensive line won’t be much better this season. Richardson will know the playbook better and the feature back role is his for the taking, but he’s a risky RB2.

220 carries for 840 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 220 yards (148 pts standard)

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

Bradshaw rushed for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 41 carries in 3 games last season before going down with a serious neck injury. Bradshaw is now going into his age 28 season, which is like 33 for running backs, with a significant injury history, missing 19 games with various injuries over the past 3 seasons and being limited in many others. However, he’s a tough running back who has averaged 4.59 yards per carry on 962 career carries and he’s only behind Trent Richardson on the depth chart. He’s not a bad late round flier, especially for Richardson owners.

100 carries for 400 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 20 catches for 150 yards (73 pts standard)

WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

One positive of Reggie Wayne’s injury last season was that it allowed TY Hilton to have a breakout year as the #1 receiver in his absence. Hilton caught 82 passes for 1083 yards and 5 touchdowns on 533 routes run, an average of 2.03 yards per route run. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked wide receiver. He’s no longer just a deep threat reliant on big plays to make an impact, as he was as a rookie when he caught 50 passes for 861 yards and 7 touchdowns on 479 routes run, an average of 1.80 yards per routes. Now going into his 3rd year in the league, a common breakout year for wide receivers, Hilton could be even better. The 2012 3rd round pick is going into only his age 25 season. He was dominant in the post-season, catching 17 passes for 327 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games. He’ll once again be the Colts’ #1 receiver in 2014.

79 catches for 1120 yards and 7 touchdowns (154 pts standard)

WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

Wayne was the Colts’ most reliable player prior to his injury, not missing a game since his rookie season in 2001 and catching 1006 passes for 13,566 yards and 80 touchdowns in his career. Those 13,566 career yards are 11th all-time and he could easily be Hall-of-Fame bound when it’s all said and done, but he’s going into his age 36 season now and coming off of that serious injury. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Wayne showed some signs of decline last season and there’s no guarantee that he can be anything close to what the Colts are used to from him this year. Let someone else overdraft him. Hilton is the Colts receiver you want.

58 catches for 720 yards and 5 touchdowns (102 pts standard)

WR Hakeem Nicks (Indianapolis)

The Colts signed Hakeem Nicks to a one-year deal this off-season. Nicks, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like one of the best young receivers in the NFL from 2009-2011. He averaged 2.30 yards per route run in 2009 on 344 routes run and 2.32 yards per route run in 2010 on 453 routes run. In 2011, he “only” averaged 2.08 yards per route run on 572 routes run, thanks to the development of Victor Cruz opposite him, but he was still a big part of the Giants’ Super Bowl team. His development seems to have stagnated over the past 2 seasons though thanks to a variety of lower body injuries and he’s never played all 16 games in a season, missing 10 games over the past 5 seasons and being limited in many others.

Nicks averaged 1.74 yards per route run on 398 routes run in 2012 and 1.70 yards per route run on 527 routes run in 2013. Last year was especially bad as he didn’t score all season and struggled with his chemistry with Eli Manning. 7 passes thrown to him were picked off and Manning’s quarterback rating when throwing to him was 57.0, 7th worst among eligible wide receivers. All that being said, he still has plenty of talent, which still flashes, and even his down years weren’t awful. He’s only going into his age 26 season, so he could be an asset for the Colts in the passing game. Off-season reports haven’t been great though and he’ll be the Colts’ #3 receiver as long as Wayne is healthy, so he’s only a late round flier.

45 catches for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

Allen missed almost all of last season with a hip injury. That was a bigger loss than most people realize because of how good Allen was as a rookie in 2012. The 2012 3rd round pick only caught 45 passes for 521 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he did so on 64 targets, meaning he caught 70.3% of targets, and on 368 routes run, meaning he averaged 1.42 yards per route run. Where he really excelled was as a blocker, both a run and pass blocker, but he has a great overall game. Essentially a younger version of Heath Miller, Allen could see more pass snaps and more production than he did as a rookie.

44 catches for 550 yards and 5 touchdowns (85 pts standard)

TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

In Allen’s absence, Coby Fleener led Colts’ tight ends in snaps played with 834. Fleener was a 2nd round pick in 2012, going before Allen, but he’s not nearly as good as Allen, especially as a blocker. Fleener caught 52 passes for 608 yards and 4 touchdowns on 482 routes run, an average of 1.26 yards per route run. He caught 52 of 84 targets (61.9%) and only dropped one pass all season. He’ll slide in as the #2 tight end this season, but there will still be pass catching opportunities.

42 catches for 530 yards and 4 touchdowns (77 pts standard)

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Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bills, Uncategorized

QB EJ Manuel (Buffalo)

Manuel looked like a reach as a rookie. Ignore the injuries (several lower body injuries limited him to 706 snaps in 10 games), Manuel really struggled on the field completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and even struggled, efficiency wise, as a runner, even though that’s supposed to be an added bonus he offers teams. He rushed for just 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 35 carries, a pathetic 3.51 YPC. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league, but so far his career is not off to a great start. He’s a QB2 with upside only because of his running ability and his first round draft status.

3500 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (233 pts standard)

RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

CJ Spiller, the 9th overall pick in 2010, was supposed to have a huge breakout year last year as the feature back in Buffalo’s run heavy offense. He was very impressive in 2012, averaging 6.01 yards per carry on 207 carries, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns. He also added 43 catches for 459 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, Spiller only played 394 snaps last season for two reasons. The first reason was injury. He only missed 1 game with injury, but he was limited in others. He had single digit carries in 3 games and showed serious inconsistency, with 5 games in which he had 23 rushing yards or fewer. He averaged 4.62 yards per carry, rushing for 933 yards and 2 touchdowns on 202 carries, but inconsistency was a serious problem. He also only had 33 catches for 185 yards.

That leads into the second reason why he played so few snaps, which was his struggles on passing downs. He wasn’t awful as a pass catcher, but he was as a pass protector. Spiller could have better health in 2014, which will help him as a rusher and help him play more snaps. He could also bounce back as a pass catcher. The pass protection is the bigger issue though. 300+ touches are his for the taking in this run heavy offense and he could be incredibly efficient, but there’s no guarantee he takes them.

230 carries for 1060 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 300 yards (172 pts standard)

RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

Jackson has defied father time before, doing so just last year, rushing for 890 yards and 9 touchdowns on 206 attempts, while adding 47 catches for 387 yards and another touchdown, and it helps that he got a late start to his career, with just 1394 touches in his career. However, he’s still very old for a running back, going into his age 33 season, and he’s a year removed from a 2-year stretch in which he missed 10 games and a 2012 season in which he rushed for 3.80 YPC on 115 carries. He’s the #2 back on a run heavy offense behind a shaky starter, but his arrow is trending down and Spiller’s is trending up. Jackson could face pressure from Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon for the #2 role as well.

160 carries for 660 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 280 yards (130 pts standard)

WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo)

I hate rookie wide receivers in fantasy. They’re always over-drafted because of their name and that’s true of Sammy Watkins as well. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Watkins also has to deal with poor quarterback play. I don’t expect an AJ Green or Julio Jones type season from Watkins as a rookie.

45 catches for 650 yards and 5 touchdowns (95 pts standard)

WR Robert Woods (Buffalo)

Woods was a 2nd round pick in 2013 and caught 40 passes for 587 yards and 3 touchdowns. He averaged 1.21 yards per route run on 484 routes run and caught 40 of 81 targets, 49.4%. He graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, grading out 79th, but he could be better in his 2nd year in the league.

42 catches for 620 yards and 4 touchdowns (86 pts standard)

WR Mike Williams (Buffalo)

Williams has shown he can be a very solid receiver when he has a fire lit under him. Williams had strong years in 2010 (65/964/11) and 2012 (63/996/9). However, in 2011, he had just 65 catches for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns and reportedly displaying a very poor work ethic. In 2013, he had 22 catches for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in just 6 games before going down with injury. After his injury, he reportedly incurred 200K in fines for a variety of activity detrimental to the team, including missing meetings.

He has a history of this type of behavior, not just in 2011 and 2013, but dating back to his collegiate days at the Syracuse University, when he was kicked off the team, ironically by head coach Doug Marrone, who is now head coach of the Bills. Williams also has a myriad of minor off the field incidents over the past calendar year, which are concerning when you put everything together. All of that makes up why he was traded to the Bills for a 6th round pick, but this could serve as the wake-up call he needs to continue alternating bad years with strong years. His quarterback play could hold him back though.

35 catches for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns (79 pts standard)

TE Scott Chandler (Buffalo)

Scott Chandler was the Bills’ leading receiver last season, catching 53 passes for 655 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, the Bills can spread it around more this season with Watkins and Williams coming in and Woods going into his 2nd year in the league. Chandler isn’t going to see a ton of targets on this run heavy offense and he doesn’t have good quarterback play. He could score more than twice this season, but he’s only a bye week filler at tight end either way and he doesn’t have much upside.

51 catches for 590 yards and 4 touchdowns (83 pts standard)

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Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Dolphins, Uncategorized

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

Ryan Tannehill showed improvement from his rookie year, when he completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.81 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a QB rating of 76.1. In 2013, he completed 60.4% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, a QB rating of 81.7. He also improved on the ground as the mobile Tannehill rushed for 238 yards and a touchdown on 40 carries, an average of 5.95 YPA, after rushing for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns on 49 carries as a rookie, an average of 4.31 YPA. He’s not a fantasy football factor yet though. He’s a mid-level QB2.

3800 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 380 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (258 pts standard)

RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

Lamar Miller is currently the front runner to be the starter for the 2nd straight season. Miller, a 2012 4th round pick, rushed for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns on 177 carries last season, an average of 4.01 yards per carry. In 2 seasons in the league, Miller has averaged 4.21 yards per carry, showing why he fell to the 4th round in the first place. I don’t expect him to be much better this season. The Dolphins brought in Knowshon Moreno this off-season to compete with him for the starting job, but injuries prevented him from doing that.

210 carries for 880 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 220 yards (146 pts standard)

RB Knowshon Moreno (Miami)

Knowshon Moreno had over 1500 yards from scrimmage last season (1038 rushing and 548 receiving), but was still available about 3 weeks into free agency. There were reasons for that. As much production as Moreno had last year, much of it was the product of Peyton Manning. Moreno rarely faced stacked boxes and, much more often than not, was running against boxes of 6 or fewer defenders. In spite of that, he actually just rushed for 4.31 yards per carry, which isn’t a spectacular average. He’s a talented pass catcher and pass protector, but he’s an average runner at best. He also missed 20 games from 2010-2012 and had just 426 touches over those 3 seasons. Now he’s dealing with a bad knee that caused him to miss most of the off-season. He’ll be Miller’s backup and a passing down specialist.

100 carries for 420 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 20 catches for 180 yards (78 pts standard)

WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

Wallace didn’t really pan out in his first year in Miami. Wallace caught a career high 73 passes, but only for 930 yards. His 5 touchdowns were the smallest total of his 5-year career, as was his 12.7 yards per catch. This kind of disappointment shouldn’t be surprising from him. It’s always concerned me when a guy is obviously just chasing money. Wallace held out long into training camp going in 2012, rather than playing out the final year of his rookie deal and, as a result, he had a poor year by his standards in 2012, with 64 catches for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns despite a career high in targets. It was obvious when he went into that holdout that a down year like that was a possibility, but he didn’t seem to care. He was part of the reason why the Steelers missed the playoffs.

And then he chased the money and went to Miami, a team with a young quarterback that had made the playoffs just once in the previous 11 seasons. It was very possible he’d just coast once he had the money and it seems like he did. He’s a one trick pony anyway. He’s got great speed, but he’s still not a good route runner and the NFL has caught on to him over the past few seasons. It’s very possible the 1257 yards he had in his breakout 2010 season will be his career best when his career is all said and done. Some are saying that a new offensive coordinator, with Bill Lazor taking over from Mike Sherman, will help Wallace, but I’m skeptical.

60 catches for 950 yards and 7 touchdowns (137 pts standard)

WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

With Wallace disappointing last year, Brian Hartline led the Dolphins in receiving yards for the 2nd straight season. He’s put up pretty identical 74/1083/1 and 76/1016/4 seasons over the past 2 seasons, since the 2009 4th round pick broke out in 2012. He’s not an explosive athlete, a touchdown threat, or a deep threat, but he knows how to get open and Tannehill is obviously comfortable throwing to him. There’s a good chance he leads them in receiving for the 3rd straight season. He’s averaged 1.84 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons.

72 catches for 990 yards and 5 touchdowns (129 pts standard)

TE Charles Clay (Miami)

Clay broke out last season in his 3rd year in the league. Clay caught 69 passes for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns on 458 routes run, an average of 1.62 yards per route run. Clay is still a one year wonder, after playing a combined 744 snaps in his first 2 years in the league and catching a combined 34 passes, but he could have another solid season as a pass catcher this season.

62 catches for 720 yards and 5 touchdowns (102 pts standard)

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New York Jets Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Jets, Uncategorized

RB Chris Johnson (NY Jets)

Last year Johnson significantly declined in efficiency, averaging just 3.86 yards per carry, including just 1.84 yards per carry after contact and ranked 3rd worst in the NFL in elusive rating. He should become more efficient this season as he’ll see a smaller workload, splitting carries with power back Chris Ivory (probably in the neighborhood of 180-220 carries). He could also be healthier after dealing with significant knee problems all last season. However, he’s also going into his age 29 season with 2014 career touches so he’s not getting any better any time soon. Injury problems could become commonplace for him and there’s already some concern about a potentially arthritic knee. He’s on the decline and the Jets’ run blocking is significantly worse than the Titans. He shouldn’t be highly drafted anymore.

210 carries for 860 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 280 yards (144 pts standard)

RB Chris Ivory (NY Jets)

Chris Ivory probably won’t have 182 carries like he had last season and he’s useless on passing downs with 5 career catches, but he’ll still play a big role as a between the tackles power back and he’s averaged 4.89 yards per carry for his career, including 4.56 yards per carry last season. He’ll get all the short yardage and goal line looks. The issue is the Jets won’t be around the goal line very often.

160 carries for 720 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 5 catches for 40 yards (106 pts standard)

WR Eric Decker (NY Jets)

Eric Decker is going to get a massive downgrade at the quarterback position going from Peyton Manning to Geno Smith/Michael Vick. The last time he played with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning, he averaged just 1.28 yards per route run. That was in 2011 with the combination of Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton, which is comparable to what Decker will be dealing with in New York. Decker will also see more of the defense’s attention and, even though he’ll be the #1 receiver, he might not necessarily get more targets, simply because the Jets don’t pass as much as the Broncos do. Decker has had 120 and 135 targets over the past 2 seasons respectively, an average of 127.5 targets per season. That would have been 26.6% of the Jets’ 480 pass attempts last season.

That being said, it’s unfair to suggest that he’ll just go back to his 2011 level of production, when he caught 44 passes for 612 yards and 8 touchdowns. While much of his increased production since then is due to the arrival of Peyton Manning, he’s still an improved player over when he was in his 2nd year in the league in 2011, after being drafted in the 3rd round in 2010. After averaging 86 catches for 1176 yards and 11 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons, Decker will probably have between 60-70 catches for 800-900 yards and 6-8 touchdowns next season.

67 catches for 820 yards and 6 touchdowns (118 pts standard)

WR Jeremy Kerley (NY Jets)

Jeremy Kerley was the Jets’ leading receiver last season with 43 catches for 523 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kerley had that production in 12 games and in 2012 he led the team with 56 catches for 827 yards and 2 touchdowns in 16 games. Kerley has averaged 1.77 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons, despite poor quarterback play. There’s not much upside here though, as Kerley is the #2 receiver on one of the worst passing offenses in the league.

48 catches for 700 yards and 4 touchdowns (94 pts standard)

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