Month: March 2015

Cleveland Browns sign DE Randy Starks

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

After being quite for most of the off-season, the Browns decided to add two 30+ year old free agents this off-season. Starks’ deal isn’t as (2 years, 8 million) as Tramon Williams’ deal, but there’s a reason for that. While Williams has yet to show any real signs of decline going into his age 32 season, Starks has. He graded out below average on 544 snaps last season, the first time he had graded out below average in Pro Football Focus’ history, since 2007.

Starks could bounce back in 2015, but, going into his age 32 season, it’s more likely that his best days are behind him. That’s why the Dolphins cut him, to save 5 million in cash and cap space. The Browns get him slightly cheaper than that, there’s no guaranteed money beyond 2015, and he’ll provide valuable depth as a 3-4 defensive end behind Desmond Bryant, John Hughes. It’s not a bad move, but it’s not a move I love either.

Grade: B

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Houston Texans sign WR Cecil Shorts

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

Cecil Shorts, a 2011 4th round pick, once looked like a very promising young receiver. After a rookie year where he didn’t see the field much (179 total snaps and 2 catches), Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2012. He was even better than those numbers suggested, as he did that despite missing 2 games with injuries and not playing more than 50% of his team’s snaps until the team’s 6th game of the season. He ran 423 routes on the season, giving him 2.31 yards per route run, 8th in the NFL, and he did that despite playing with the likes of Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at quarterback.

However, injuries prevented him from taking that next step. He missed 6 games with injury in 2013 and 2014 combined and averaged 60 catches for 667 yards and 2 touchdowns per season. He’s never played a 16 game season in his career, playing 50 out of a possible 64 games in his career and being limited in many others. He’s talented and his numbers undoubtedly would have been better if he played the first 4 years of his career with even a competent quarterback, but durability is a big concern.

That being said, I like this deal because it doesn’t pay him very much. Shorts will make just 6 million over the next 2 seasons if this deal goes to its conclusion and only the 2.5 million dollar signing bonus is guaranteed. Shorts fills a big need at wide receiver too, after the Texans cut Andre Johnson. His addition doesn’t mean they’re done adding at wide receiver because #3 receiver Damaris Johnson was Pro Football Focus’ 107th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible last season. I still expect them to draft a receiver early. However, Shorts will provide a nice stopgap as rookie wide receivers often take a year or two to adjust to the NFL (last year’s class notwithstanding).

Grade: A-

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Houston Texans sign DT Vince Wilfork

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

The Patriots release Vince Wilfork earlier this off-season, but it wasn’t for lack of talent. Wilfork graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season, including 6th against the run, which is his specialty. He was released because he simply wasn’t worth his 8.5 million dollar salary, going into his age 34 season. The Texans are paying him significantly less than that, as Wilfork will make 5 million in 2015. It’s also a relatively low risk deal, as there isn’t any guaranteed money beyond 2015 (he can make 4 million in 2016 in the 2nd year of this 2-year, 9 million dollar deal).

I also like the fit in Houston. This is where I expected him to end up since the Patriots released him. The Texans are building a mini-New England west in Houston (minus, obviously, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Head Coach Bill O’Brien was with New England for 5 years, including 2011 as offensive coordinator. The two quarterbacks competing for their starting job in 2015 (Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett) are both former Brady backups.

On the defensive side of things, defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel was the Patriots’ defensive coordinator for 4 years, including Wilfork’s rookie year in 2004. Linebackers coach Mike Vrabel is a former teammate of Wilfork’s. Wilfork also fills a big need at nose tackle between JJ Watt and Jared Crick, as 2014 3rd round pick Louis Nix missed his entire rookie year with injury and hasn’t been healthy since his junior year at Notre Dame in 2012. Wilfork can also play 3-4 defensive end, but his run stopping abilities are best utilized on the nose in base packages. This is a solid move.

Grade: A-

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Cleveland Browns sign CB Tramon Williams

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

Given that we’re already going into the 2nd week of free agency, I did not expect Tramon Williams to get 7 million dollars annually. That doesn’t necessarily mean this is a bad deal. Williams is going into his age 32 season, but he should still be a solid starter next season. He’s not the player he was in 2009, when he graded out 9th, or 2010, when he graded out 8th, but he’s graded out above average in 6 straight seasons and made 95 of 96 starts over that time period.

I also like the fit in Cleveland. The Browns drafted Justin Gilbert in the first round last year, but he was a massive disappointment on and off the field in his first year in the league, grading out below average on just 373 snaps and getting suspended for the final game of the season for a violation of team rules. Meanwhile, fellow rookie K’Waun Williams played well on 341 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked cornerback. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better as Williams allowed just 4.91 yards per attempt into his coverage last season. However, it’s hard to trust him going forward given that he was undrafted a year ago and, best case scenario, he still only projects as a valuable slot cornerback.

Williams may be aging, but he’s still playing well and gives them good insurance outside opposite Joe Haden for at least a year. 7 million annually is a lot for an aging cornerback, but there probably isn’t much, if any money guaranteed beyond 2015 and the Browns have a fair amount of cap space to work with. Giving it to a proven player like Williams makes a lot more sense than giving it to unproven veterans like Jacksonville did (Jermey Parnell, Dan Skuta, and Davon House) and hoping that they found diamonds in the rough that the league let fall through the cracks. I said before free agency started that something around 3 years, 17 million, with 7 million guaranteed would be appropriate for him and this isn’t too far off.

Grade: B+

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign MLB Bruce Carter

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Given the size of this deal, 17 million over 4 years with 4.2 million guaranteed, suggests that the Buccaneers view Carter as a starter and an every down player. I think that’s a mistake based on his career play. The Cowboys drafted Bruce Carter in the 2nd round in 2011 despite the fact that he tore his ACL late in his final collegiate season at North Carolina. Carter was limited to 41 snaps as a rookie, but he looked on his way to a breakout 2nd season before a serious arm injury cut his season short. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked middle linebacker on 625 snaps and 11 starts.

Moving back to his natural position of 4-3 outside linebacker in 2013, many expected him to have a great season, but he did the opposite, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 35 eligible. In 2014, he was limited to 8 starts in 13 games and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 40 eligible. The potential he once appeared to have seems to have dissipated and he’s a borderline starting outside linebacker and an injury prone one at that, with 15 missed games in 4 seasons. This is an overpay.

The one thing that’s intriguing about this deal is that Carter could play middle linebacker in Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers need an every down player at that spot, with Mason Foster expected to go elsewhere this off-season. They don’t need an every down outside linebacker because Lavonte David does that and the amount they’re paying him suggests they’re going to play him every down somewhere. Carter did play well at middle linebacker in 2012, but he’s never played inside in a 4-3. This contract is too much money to risk to find out anyway, even if there isn’t any guaranteed money beyond 2015.

Grade: C-

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Oakland Raiders sign RB Roy Helu

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

Roy Helu only has 255 carries in 4 seasons since the Redskins drafted him in the 4th round in 2011, but he’s averaged 4.44 yards per carry and where he really provides value is as a 3rd down back. In 48 career games, Helu has 129 catches for 1152 yards and 3 touchdowns and he’s been a top-5 pass blocking running back in 2 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, extremely valuable in today’s NFL. I like the fit of him in Oakland with unproven, but promising back Latavius Murray atop their depth chart. Helu can complement Murray as a passing down back and has a decent chance to surpass his career high of 151 carries.

This deal, which pays him 4 million over 2 years, is a solid value, given that Shane Vereen and Reggie Bush both got 4-year, 16 million dollar deals as passing down backs. Helu is younger than Bush and comparable to Vereen, with arguably more upside as a traditional runner. He’s less explosive, but he’s the better in between the tackles runner at 5-11 215. This is a smart, cheap pickup that had a chance to help the Raiders in 2015.

Grade: A

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Miami Dolphins sign TE Jordan Cameron

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Jordan Cameron had a breakout year in 2013, catching 80 passes for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns, after playing just 398 snaps and catching 26 passes in his first 2 seasons in the league. Cameron didn’t match that production in 2014 though, as he missed 6 games and caught just 24 passes for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cameron heads into free agency as a one year wonder with a concerning concussion history and no full 16 game seasons played.

Even his 2013 season wasn’t as good as his numbers looked as he was fortunate enough to be on one of the pass heaviest teams in the NFL. His 1.47 yards per route run was 19th among eligible tight ends. Sure poor quarterback play hurt him, but I’d argue that the amount the Browns passed that season helped him more than his quarterback play hurt. After all, the Browns finished 11th in the NFL in passing yards that season. He’s also graded out below average as a run blocker in each of the last 3 seasons, including 60th out of 67 eligible in that facet in 2014.

I had him as a candidate to get overpaid this off-season and, sure enough, he did. This 7.5 million dollar annual salary is tied for 4th highest in the NFL. The thing I do like about this deal is it’s only a two-year deal (15 million total) and there’s likely no guaranteed money beyond 2015, so it’s relatively low risk long-term. However, if they’re choosing between signing Jordan Cameron and signing Charles Clay to a similar deal, they’re making a mistake.

Grade: C

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Arizona Cardinals sign MLB Sean Weatherspoon

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, Uncategorized

The Cardinals will be hoping that Weatherspoon can provide insurance inside for Daryl Washington, who is still suspended by the NFL for drug use and domestic abuse. It’s been a steep drop off for Weatherspoon since he was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in his 2nd year in the league in 2011 after being drafted in the 1st round in 2010. He’s played in just 20 of 48 games combined over the past 3 seasons, grading out below average in 2012 and 2013 and missing all of 2014 with a torn Achilles. 2011 remains the only season in his career that he’s played all 16 games and the only season in his career that he graded out above average as he missed 5 games as a rookie and graded out below average when on the field. He’s missed 33 games in 5 seasons. I thought he’d be a nice buy-low signing for a team on a one-year deal, but, much like the Falcons with Adrian Clayborn, I don’t think the Cardinals and buying quite low enough with this 1-year, 3.85 million dollar deal.

Grade: B-

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Atlanta Falcons sign DE Adrian Clayborn

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, Uncategorized

Adrian Clayborn was a first round pick of the Buccaneers in 2011 and he had a decent rookie year, struggling mightily against the run, but getting good pass rush and overall grading out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus. The story of his career from there was injuries though, as he’s played just 20 games over the past 3 seasons. He missed all but 3 games in 2012 with a torn ACL, struggled mightily in his first year back in 2013, grading out 47th out of 52 eligible 4-3 defensive ends, and, just when there was optimism for his future again in 2014, he tore his biceps and missed all but 1 game. There’s still upside here and he’s a decent flier, but I don’t think the Falcons are buying quite low enough with this 1-year, 3 million dollar deal (another 1.5 million is available through incentives). If they’re expecting him to help their poor pass rush much, they’re probably going to be disappointed. Hopefully they still address this area with the 8th overall pick.

Grade: B

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Philadelphia Eagles sign CB Walter Thurmond

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

Walter Thurmond got a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal from the Giants last off-season, but only played 2 games because of injury. Despite that, the Eagles have given him the same contract this off-season. Thurmond isn’t a bad player (I loved the move by the Giants last off-season when they made it), but I don’t like that out of principle. It’s hard to imagine anyone else was going to pay him this, especially since the injury he suffered last season just reinforced that he’s one of the most injury prone players in the NFL. Thurmond has played just 36 of a possible 80 games in 5 seasons in the league since the Seahawks drafted him in the 4th round in 2010. But Chip Kelly seems to have a thing for injury prone players and former Oregon Ducks.

I don’t hate signing Thurmond though. He’s shown upside, particularly in 2013, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 33rd ranked cornerback on a career high 480 snaps. He could end up being worth this deal, but I don’t think it’s a great value. I also don’t know where Thurmond will play in Philadelphia. His strength is the slot, as he ranked 7th in the NFL among eligible cornerbacks, allowing 0.85 yards per coverage snap on the slot on 229 snaps in 2013. However, the Eagles already have a talented slot cornerback in Brandon Boykin. If the Eagles are expecting Thurmond to be a starter for them opposite Byron Maxwell, they’re going to be very disappointed and, if the Eagles are paying him 3.5 million to be their 4th cornerback, they’re overpaying.

Grade: C+

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