Month: March 2015

Tennessee Titans sign OLB Brian Orakpo

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

For a while, it looked like the Titans weren’t going to do much in free agency, despite a ton of cap space and holes all over a roster that went 2-14 last season. Turns out, they were just being patient and waiting for price tags to drop to where they felt they were appropriate, a surprising showing of savvy by a front office that has rightfully taken a lot of heat for their moves over the past few years. My theory has always been that bad teams always make moves early in free agency, while the good teams wait for the market to come to them a few days later.

The counter to that is that bad teams need to make moves early in free agency to find guys that will make significant impacts on their team and they need to overpay to get those players to join their team, while good teams have the luxury of being only need to patch up a few holes and the ability to get guys to come to their team on cheaper deals because players want to win. The Titans (and the Redskins to a similar extent) are proving that bad teams can execute this strategy as well and I think it will serve them well as they look for bounce back years in 2015. The Titans have re-signed Derrick Morgan and brought in Da’Norris Searcy, Perrish Cox, and now Brian Orakpo, four guys who all have a good chance to be above average starters on this defense next season, and didn’t overpay any of them.

I don’t like this move quite as much as the move to re-sign Derrick Morgan, as the total value of this deal (32 million over 4 years) is 5 million dollars more than Morgan got and the guarantee (13.5 million) is 3 million dollars more than Orakpo got, even though Morgan has missed 2 games in the last 4 seasons combined, while Orakpo has missed 24 games over the past 3 seasons. However, Orakpo offers more upside than Morgan does. Orakpo was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranking 3-4 outside linebacker in 2011 and their 4th ranked in 2013, earning him the franchise tag. He has seasons cut very short by injury in between, which makes this a risky signing, but I think it’s a solid value. Orakpo could have gotten upwards of 50+ million over 5 years last off-season had he been allowed to reach the open market.

Grade: B

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Tennessee Titans re-sign OLB Derrick Morgan

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

A rare first round hit by the Titans, Derrick Morgan’s career got off to a slow start as he was limited to 112 snaps by a torn ACL as a rookie in 2010 and struggled in his return from that injury in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible. However, he’s graded out above average in each of the past three seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013, and 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014. Most importantly, he’s missed just 2 games over the past 4 seasons and doesn’t have any significant injuries on his record other than that torn ACL. His scheme versatility and his pass rush ability are very valuable and the Titans did well to lock up one of their few talented young players on a reasonable 4-year, 27 million dollar deal with 10.5 million guaranteed.

Grade: A-

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Tennessee Titans sign CB Perrish Cox

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

The Titans had a need at cornerback, as Blidi Wreh-Wilson graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 104th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible in 2014 in his first season as the starter in place of Alterraun Verner, who departed in free agency last off-season. Wreh-Wilson was a 3rd round pick in 2013 and could have been given another shot as a starter in 2015, in hopes that he improved, but the Titans had money to spend this off-season and BWW fits much more naturally as a 3rd cornerback. Cox, for comparison, was Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked cornerback last season in a breakout year.

Cox’s career has had an interesting trajectory. He was a 5th round pick by the Broncos in 2010 and graded out above average on 787 snaps as a rookie, but was let go after one year after being arrested on multiple sexual assault charges. Cox was out of the league entirely in 2011 thanks to those charges coupled with a history of off-the-field issues from his collegiate days at Oklahoma State. However, early in 2012, he was found not guilty and the 49ers gave him another chance. He didn’t play much in either 2012 or 2013, playing 168 snaps in 2012 and 81 snaps in 2013 (11 of which were actually with the Seahawks).

However, injuries opened up a starting role for him back with the 49ers in 2014 and he didn’t look back, playing 965 snaps and making 14 starts. He’s obviously a risky signing given his history, but he clearly has talent, showing it in both of his stints as a starter. This deal gives him 15 million over 3 years, but it likely doesn’t have any money guaranteed beyond 2015 so it’s relatively low risk and not a bad value for a player who is only going into his age 28 season and could easily continue being an above average starter in 2015 and beyond.

Grade: B+

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Tennessee Titans sign S Da’Norris Searcy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

Searcy was a 4th round pick by the Bills in 2011 NFL Draft. He played just 511 snaps in his first 2 seasons in 2011 and 2012, but he made 20 starts over the past 2 seasons as a hybrid safety/linebacker. He’s never played more than 753 snaps in a season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked safety in 2014 (on 666 snaps), so I expected someone would give him starter’s money to be a traditional starting safety for them. It turns out that team was the Tennessee Titans, who will pay him 24 million over 4 years with 10.5 million guaranteed. The fit makes sense as the Titans need a replacement for Bernard Pollard at strong safety and need to add as much talent as possible this off-season after a 2-14 season. It’s a risky move, but I think it’s a solid value.

Grade: B+

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Philadelphia Eagles trade QB Nick Foles to the St. Louis Rams for QB Sam Bradford

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Rams, Uncategorized

Trade for Eagles: It’s not often that a team downgrades it’s starting quarterback. It’s even less often that a team does that while simultaneously hurting their draft position, but the Eagles managed to do both of those things in this trade. Foles looked like a future star in 2013 when the 2012 3rd round pick completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Foles regressed mightily in 2014 though, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

Much of Foles’ strong production in 2013 was as a result of the scheme, as he only graded out 17th at his position on Pro Football Focus. As you can imagine, that slipped to 25th out of 39 eligible in 2014, barely better than backup Mark Sanchez (27th), who made 8 starts in Foles’ absence. The Eagles moved the chains at a 72.34% rate with Nick Foles and a 72.49% rate with Mark Sanchez. The fact that their offense wasn’t significantly worse with Sanchez under center is a concern for Foles. However, what Foles did in 2013 is still more impressive than anything Bradford has done in his career, he’s younger (age 28 vs age 26), and he’s significantly less injury prone. Bradford has completed 58.6% of his passes for an average of 6.29 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 38 interceptions, missed 25 straight games because of a twice torn ACL, and missed 41 of 93 games dating back to his final season at Oklahoma. Bradford is also owed over 12 million dollars more this season than what Foles was owed.

When I first saw this trade, I assumed that the Eagles had improved their draft position in the trade, perhaps moving up from 20th to 10th in the first round, as was originally erroneously reported by several sources. That would have made some sense as 10 would have given the Eagles an easier spot to move up to get Heisman winner Marcus Mariota, who they have been linked to all off-season because of the Chip Kelly/Oregon connection. A trade of the 10th overall pick and Bradford to the Jets for the 6th overall pick could have gotten the Eagles Mariota, as would have a trade of the 10th overall pick, a 2nd round pick, some later picks, and Bradford to Tennessee for the 2nd overall pick, if they really wanted to be safe.

Instead, the Rams hurt their draft position significantly with this trade. They give up a 4th round pick this year, a 2nd round pick next year, and get back a 5th round pick this year and maybe a mid-round pick next year depending on whether or not Bradford gets injured again and how many games he plays for them next season. It’s possible that Chip Kelly never intended to move up for Mariota and that Bradford was his plan all along. He said in a recent press conference that he wouldn’t mortgage the future to move up for Mariota and that Bradford will be his guy in 2015. Even if that’s true, he still overpaid for him.

Kelly also said that the Eagles were offered a 1st round pick for Bradford. That would make this trade make more sense if it was true and if someone gives them that the Eagles would be absolutely fleecing them in a trade. The amount of team’s with unresolved quarterback issues whose situation would be made easier by trading a first round pick for Bradford isn’t very high though and it’s very possible that Kelly saying that is wishful thinking and he’s trying to drum up trade interest. This is a confusing situation and it’s tough to know what’s going on and it’s tough to grade this for that reason. If the Eagles can somehow get a first round pick for Bradford later on, they’d absolutely be winners of that trade, but for right now, it looks like they really messed up.

Grade: D

Trade for Rams: As I mentioned, it’s tough to know what kind of quarterback Foles is going to be in this league. His 2013 was great, but largely the result of the system and he struggled in 2014. However, he’s still better, less injury prone, cheaper, and younger than Bradford and the Rams improve their draft position in each of the next 2 drafts with this deal. Given all of that, they’re very clearly the winner of this trade.

Grade: A

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New Orleans Saints sign CB Brandon Browner

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

It’s a common narrative that Brandon Browner is a good cornerback. After all, he’s the only play in the NFL to win each of the last 2 Super Bowls, as he was on the Seahawks in 2013 and the Patriots in 2014. Plus, he’s so big (6-4 221)! Well, he didn’t even play past week 10 for the Seahawks in 2013 because of suspension and he’s one performance enhancing drug suspension away from at least a year long ban, which has to be a red flag on his resume.

In 2014, the Patriots won the Super Bowl in spite of him as he graded out below average, thanks in large part to the 15 penalties he committed in 9 games, 19 penalties in 12 games if you include the playoffs, after he missed the start of the season with the rest of that suspension. The only thing Browner seems to like more than getting in trouble with the league for performance enhancing drugs is getting in trouble with the refs for various holding and pass interference calls that extend opponent’s drives.

His penalty problem isn’t a new thing either as he’s committed 48 penalties in 50 career games, including playoffs. That problem isn’t going to get better as he goes into his age 31 season, in a league that is getting increasingly tough on coverage penalties. Browner graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL from 2011-2013, after starting his career in the CFL, but I think his best days are behind him, especially since he’s never had a good season outside of Seattle’s system. The Saints obviously needed cornerback help, but they overpaid by giving him 15 million over 3 years with 7.75 million guaranteed.

Grade: C

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New York Jets sign CB Buster Skrine

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

Forget about the fact that the Jets are giving 6.25 million dollars annually over 4 years (4-year, 25 million) and 13 million guaranteed to a cornerback who will be their #3 cornerback and play about 50-60% of the snaps, following the signings of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. That’s a weird move, but, on top of that, Skrine isn’t very good. Just ask Browns fans, who generally seem to be glad he’s gone, or the Browns themselves, who made little to no effort to bring him back this off-season, even with a ton of available cap space. Less than a year ago, they used a 1st round pick on Justin Gilbert to replace him long-term. They knew Skrine wasn’t a starting caliber player.

Skrine made 37 starts in 4 seasons with the Browns, after they drafted him in the 5th round in 2011, and started 31 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons. He was never good though, grading out below average in all 4 seasons, with his worst year coming in 2013, when he graded out 105th out of 110 eligible, leading the position in both missed tackles and touchdowns allowed. His 2014 campaign was better, but only by default, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 82nd ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible, thanks largely to the whopping 17 penalties he committed. There’s no way he deserved to be making this kind of money. This is one of the off-season’s worst overpays.

Grade: F

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New York Jets sign CB Antonio Cromartie

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

The Jets are partying like it’s 2011 this off-season, bringing back both Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie through free agency, a duo that played together from 2010-2012 and started all 16 for the Jets in 2011, in an effort to fix their poor secondary. Both are obviously older now, as they are both going into an age 30+ season. While I really liked the Revis more, I like this move a lot less, as the Jets gave Cromartie a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal.

Cromartie was cut by the Jets’ old John Idzik/Rex Ryan regime last off-season after a nagging hip injury caused him to grade out 102nd out of 110 eligible cornerbacks in 2013. Given that he was owed 9.5 million dollars non-guaranteed, it was absolutely the right move. The common narrative is that Cromartie, who graded out above average in every season from 2009-2012, bounced back in 2014 in his one season in Arizona under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, who is the Jets’ new Head Coach. That’s only half true though as, while Cromartie was dominant to start the season, he was horrible in the 2nd half of the season thanks to a nagging ankle injury and ended up grading out below average overall.

Cromartie has been incredibly durable throughout his career in terms of games played as he’s missed just 1 game with injury in 9 seasons in the league, but the hip problem slowed him down significantly in 2013 and the ankle problem slowed him down significantly last season. As he goes into his age 31 season, it’s definitely a concern that his body is starting to break down. Cromartie last graded out above average in 2012 so giving him 8 million dollars annually on a 4-year deal as he heads into his age 31 season seems like an overpay.

Grade: C

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Kansas City Chiefs sign G Paul Fanaika

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Fanaika is a big, physical guard at 6-5 327, but he’s really struggled as a starter over the last 2 seasons in Arizona. After the 2009 7th round pick played no snaps in the first 4 seasons of his career, Fanaika started 30 games over the past 2 seasons, but he wasn’t good, grading out 76th out of 81 eligible guards in 2013 and 71st out of 78 eligible guards in 2014. The Chiefs don’t seem to have watched his tape from the last 2 seasons, as the money they are paying him (3 years, 8.1 million) suggests they view him as a starter at right guard for 2015. He’ll face competition from Zach Fulton, who was Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked guard out of 78 eligible in 2014 as a 6th round rookie at left guard, and Jeff Allen, a natural left guard who graded out 60th out of 81 eligible in 2013 and missed all of 2014 with an injury. Right guard will probably continue to be a position of weakness for the Chiefs upfront in 2015. This isn’t a ton of money, but Fanaika still isn’t worth this.

Grade: C-

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Arizona Cardinals sign G Mike Iupati

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, Uncategorized

The 49ers drafted Mike Iupati 17th overall in 2010 and many saw him as one of the top guard prospects of the decade. He hasn’t quite lived up those expectations, but he’s still been a very good guard, grading out in the top-14 at his position on Pro Football Focus in 4 of the 5 seasons he’s been in the league, with the exception coming in an injury plagued 2013, when he still graded out above average. Despite that injury plagued 2013 season, he’s missed just 4 games in 5 seasons, all coming in 2013. One concern is that, while he’s annually one of the top run blocking guards in the NFL, he has graded out below average as a pass protector in 3 of 5 seasons so, as talented as he is, he’s not that well-rounded and he does have a glaring weakness.

I like the fit in Arizona where he will stay at left guard and be a huge upgrade over Ted Larsen, who started 16 games for them at left guard last season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 68th ranked guard out of 78 eligible. However, the price seems high as he will make 40 million over 5 years with 22.5 million of that guaranteed. This deal makes him the 3rd highest paid guard in the NFL in terms of average salary, a lot for someone with his inconsistencies in pass protection. Given that Orlando Franklin, who I think is a better all-around player, got 36.5 million over 5 years from the Chargers with 20 million guaranteed, this isn’t a great value, but it’s not a bad deal either.

Grade: B-

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