Month: March 2015

San Francisco 49ers sign WR Torrey Smith

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

If you can’t beat them, take their receivers I guess. The 49ers now have both of the Ravens’ starting wide receivers from when the Ravens beat them in the Super Bowl two years ago. Torrey Smith has played all 64 games since he’s been in the NFL, starting the last 62 of them, and he’s been decently productive with 213 catches for 3591 yards and 30 touchdowns. Only going into his age 26 season, Smith is a fantastic deep threat, but he’s not particularly good at anything else. He’s still an inconsistent route runner and has caught just 117 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s also never graded out higher than 37th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in any of his 4 seasons in the league.

I expected him to be paid somewhere in the range of what Golden Tate (5-year, 31 million with 13.25 million guaranteed) and Eric Decker (5-year, 36.25 million with 15 million guaranteed) got last off-season. I also thought that either of those deals would be an overpay. Instead, Smith exceeded both of those contract, getting 40 million over 5 years with 22 million guaranteed. This is way too much money for someone of Smith’s skill set as he’s more of a complementary receiver than a #1 guy. I like the fit of Smith in San Francisco, filling a wide receiver need and complementing Colin Kaepernick’s arm strength and Anquan Boldin’s possession ability well with his speed and deep ball ability, but not at this price.

Grade: C

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New York Giants sign OLB JT Thomas

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Giants, Uncategorized

Thomas, a 2011 5th round pick, played 202 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league before being forced to make 10 starts in 2014 because Paul Posluszny missed significant time with a torn pectoral. He predictably struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 55th ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible, with no one playing fewer snaps at the position and grading out worse. For whatever reason, the Giants are giving him a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal with 4.5 million guaranteed in the first season, paying him like a starting linebacker and naming him a starter at outside linebacker. They had a need at the position, but this isn’t the right move.

Grade: D

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Houston Texans trade QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to the New York Jets

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Texans, Uncategorized

Trade for Texans: I gave the Texans a bad grade for signing Brian Hoyer and re-signing Ryan Mallett because I thought they should have went into 2015 with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback. That might sound weird, especially since Fitzpatrick is going into his age 33 season and got benched once last season for Mallett, but Fitzpatrick is coming off of the best season of his career and did not deserve to get benched or traded, especially at a salary of just 3.25 million. In the 11 games he started and finished, the Texans moved the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 66.06% in their other 5 games, when Fitzpatrick was out with a broken leg.

I liked how Fitzpatrick fit in Bill O’Brien’s scheme. He was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked quarterback last season, completing 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.96 YPA, and a 17:8 TD:INT ratio, all career bests. He graded out below average in every season from 2008-2012, with Buffalo and Cincinnati, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, showing to be a bit of a late bloomer and a great fit from Bill O’Brien’s offense. He’s coming off a broken leg that ended his 2015 season prematurely, but he’s still better than Mallett and Hoyer. However, once the Texans brought in Hoyer and Mallett, they kind of had to make this move, so I’m not giving them a terrible grade. I would have liked to have seen them get something a little bit more than a conditional 7th round pick though, after the solid season Fitzpatrick had in 2014.

Grade: B-

Trade for Jets: As I’ve said, I like what Fitzpatrick did in 2014 and I think he’s showing himself to be a bit of a late bloomer over the past 2 seasons. At a salary of 3.25 million and the price of a conditional 7th round pick, added Fitzpatrick is a very good move for the Jets and he’ll be an immediate upgrade over Geno Smith. However, my one concern is that this trade reunites Fitzpatrick with Chan Gailey, formerly his Head Coach in Buffalo and now the Jets’ offensive coordinator.

Usually I like when players reunite with former coaches because of the familiarity aspect, but Fitzpatrick never did very well under Gailey’s tutelage as some of those poor seasons earlier in his career were with Gailey. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked quarterback out of 37 eligible in 2010, 26th out of 38 eligible in 2011, and 35th out of 38 eligible in 2012, the three seasons he played under Chan Gailey. It’s possible he still continues to play solid football in 2015 with the Jets, but the risk of him regressing back with Gailey exists. They definitely won this trade though.

Grade: A-

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Houston Texans sign QB Brian Hoyer and re-sign QB Ryan Mallett

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

These are obviously separate deals, but I feel like I have to grade them together. Both deals are pretty appropriate values, as Hoyer gets 10.5 million over 2 years with 4.75 million guaranteed, while Mallett gets 7 million over 2 years with 1.75 million guaranteed. However, the fact that the Texans signed both of them essentially ended Ryan Fitzpatrick’s tenure in Houston (he was traded to the Jets for a 7th round pick right after these deals became official). I don’t like the Texans’ decision to move forward with both of these guys instead of one of them and Fitzpatrick.

It might sound weird, especially since Fitzpatrick is going into his age 33 season and got benched once last season for Mallett, but Fitzpatrick is coming off of the best season of his career and did not deserve to get benched or traded, especially at a salary of just 3.25 million. In the 11 games he started and finished, the Texans moved the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 66.06% in their other 5 games, when Fitzpatrick was out with a broken leg. I liked how Fitzpatrick fit in Bill O’Brien’s scheme. He was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked quarterback last season, completing 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.96 YPA, and a 17:8 TD:INT ratio, all career bests. He graded out below average in every season from 2008-2012, with Buffalo and Cincinnati, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, showing to be a bit of a late bloomer and a great fit from Bill O’Brien’s offense. He’s coming off a broken leg that ended his 2015 season prematurely, but he’s still better than Mallett and Hoyer.

Meanwhile, Mallett had 4 career pass attempts in 3 seasons as a 2011 3rd round pick before coming to Houston and lasted just 2 games in 2014 before going down for the season with a torn pectoral. He actually played one of his starts with that torn pectoral and, as you can imagine, it was a trainwreck, as he completed 21 of 45 for 189 yards and an interception. He was better in his other start, completing 20 of 30 for 211 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception, but he’s still completely unproven.

Hoyer is more experienced, but he’s not much better. Hoyer had his moments in the first extended starting experience of his career in 2014, but ultimately proved to not be anything more than a solid backup caliber quarterback. He completed 55.3% of his passes for 7.59 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. The former undrafted free agent’s career numbers aren’t much different, as he’s completed 56.5% of his passes for an average of 7.23 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions on 630 career attempts. He and Mallett will compete for the starting job in Houston in 2015, with 2014 4th round pick Tom Savage as the 3rd guy, but I think the Texans made a mistake not giving Fitzpatrick the starting job for 2015.

Grade: D

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Washington Redskins sign CB Chris Culliver

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

I thought Culliver was one of the underrated players in free agency and would be a good value signing. He was just a 3rd round pick of the 49ers in 2011, but he’s quietly one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. He had a significant role from the word go in 2011, playing 425 snaps and then 691 in 2012, grading out above average in both seasons, including 29th at his position in 2012. He’s graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been healthy, missing all of 2013 with a torn ACL. However, he bounced back in a big way from that torn ACL in 2014 in his first full season as a starter, making 14 starts and grading out 14th at his position. On top of that, that 2013 ACL tear is really the only issue he’s had with injuries, missing a combined 2 games in his other 3 seasons as a pro.

Apparently his talent was not a secret around the league and he managed to sign a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal with the Redskins with 16 million guaranteed. It’s a lot more than I expected and it’s not a great value or anything, but I don’t think it’s a bad deal either, especially since the Redskins needed cornerback help more than many any team in the NFL. Culliver has shown well in every season he’s been healthy in the league. He doesn’t have much of an injury history outside that torn ACL, though it’s obviously concerning that he has that on his resume. He’s also gotten better every season he’s been healthy in the league, which suggests that he’s an ascending player, especially only going into his age 27 season. This deal isn’t bad.

Grade: B-

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St. Louis Rams sign OLB Akeem Ayers

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Rams, Uncategorized

Akeem Ayers, a 2011 2nd round pick, graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league with the Titans, including 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013. He showed versatility as a base package run stopper and someone who could either cover in sub packages or rush the passer from the edge. However, the Titans’ incompetent new regime didn’t seem to be able to figure out how to use him for whatever reason and he played just 10 snaps for them before being traded to the Patriots for a swap of late round picks mid-season. In New England, they had no problem figuring out how to use him and he provided much needed depth as a 3-4 outside linebacker, grading out above average on 390 snaps. There’s a reason why the Patriots were Super Bowl winners this year and the Titans went 2-14 (well a lot of reasons, but still).

Ayers moves back to a 4-3 in St. Louis and will probably play a largely base package role as an outside linebacker next to James Laurinaitis and Alec Ogletree. Ayers probably won’t have a lot of edge rush opportunities in sub packages given that the Rams have Robert Quinn, Chris Long, and William Hayes. He also probably won’t be used in coverage much in sub packages because that’s not his strength and the Rams like both Laurinaitis and Ogletree in those sub package roles. However, 2 years, 6 million is still very reasonable for an above average two-down player and the added versatility definitely doesn’t hurt.

Grade: A

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St. Louis Rams sign DT Nick Fairley

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Rams, Uncategorized

The Rams had Kendall Langford as a starting caliber player playing in rotation with Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers at defensive tackle last season. They cut him this off-season because he was owed 6 million and that didn’t seem worth it for a player who only played 494 snaps last season. The Rams have found their replacement for Langford here by giving Fairley a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. The Rams get a cheaper, better, younger replacement and I think it’s a great deal.

Nick Fairley has been a frustrating player during his 4 year career. He went 13th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, but it’s still not clear how good of a player he is. It’s clear how good he can be, but he’s been so inconsistent. Fairley only played 236 snaps as a rookie, largely because of injuries, but he still played well and, in 2012, he was even better, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle on just 511 snaps. Fairley looked primed for a breakout year in 2013, but weight problems caused him to only grade out slightly above average on 693 snaps. As a result, the Lions didn’t pick up his option for 2015, making 2014 his contract year, and briefly benched him for CJ Mosley last off-season.

That seemed to wake him up as he played very well to start the season, but he missed 8 games with injuries. He still graded out 18th among defensive tackles on just 297 snaps. He’s shown top defensive tackle talent and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but he’s inconsistent, he’s had discipline problems dating back to his collegiate days, and he’s missed 18 games with injuries in 4 years in the league. However, this one-year prove it deal has the best chance to get his elite upside out of him. He’ll work in heavy rotation with Brockers and Donald at defensive tackle and can be a dominant player on 500-600 snaps this season. Between that trio, Robert Quinn, a hopefully healthy Chris Long, William Hayes, and free agent signing Akeem Ayers, who can rush the passer from the edge in sub packages, the Rams have an absolutely loaded defensive line, which will continue to mask their issues in the back 7.

Grade: A

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Washington Redskins sign DT Terrance Knighton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Terrance Knighton was one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked defensive tackle in 2013 and their 12th ranked in 2014. I expected him to get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 million over 5 years, but he didn’t come close to that because of concerns about his weight. The big defensive tackle known as Pot Roast reportedly played around 330 last season, which seems to be a comfortable playing weight for him, given how well he played last season, but when a player is that big, there’s always a chance his weight gets out of control and it’s very possible that he’s gotten out of shape since the season ended.

That’s a very real concern, but this 1-year, 4 million dollar deal is still an absolute steal. Not only is it significantly less money annually that what I was expecting him to get, but there’s no risk beyond this season if he does show up to Training Camp overweight. On top of that, the fact that he could only get this type of deal could serve as a wakeup call for him and I like that he’s betting on himself with this type of deal. He’ll have every reason to remain motivated this season and that should translate to continued strong play. Knighton will play nose tackle in Washington’s 3-4 base and is a good enough pass rusher for his size that he can also stay on the field in sub packages and rush the passer. By adding Knighton, Stephen Paea, and Ricky Jean-Francois on cost effective deals this off-season, to go with Jason Hatcher, the Redskins have quietly built a solid defensive line.

Grade: A

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Houston Texans sign S Rahim Moore

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

Given that it was a weak safety market, especially after Devin McCourty re-signed with the Patriots, I thought Rahim Moore had a good chance to be overpaid. There was an argument to be made that he was the best safety that hit the open market this off-season. Given that, the Texans deserve credit for landing him on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal with nothing guaranteed past 2015. Compare that with the 4-year, 24 million dollar deal with 10.5 million guaranteed that Houston’s division rival Tennessee gave to Da’Norris Searcy. I thought Moore would get at least that, if not more.

Moore was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety in 2012 in his 2nd year in the league (only his age 22 season) and it looked like the 2012 2nd round pick had a very bright future. Moore hasn’t quite lived up to the upside he showed in 2012 over the past 2 seasons, and his career was briefly stalled by a frightening, rare leg injury that could have cost him his leg or his life. However, he’s still graded out around average in each of the last 2 seasons on Pro Football Focus and made all 16 starts in his return from injury this season. Besides, he’s only going into his age 25 season so his best football could definitely still be ahead of him. He’ll pair well with box-type safety DJ Swearinger in the Texans’ secondary.

Grade: A

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Indianapolis Colts sign WR Andre Johnson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

What’s with the Colts and signing old skill position players? First Frank Gore and now Andre Johnson? I get that they’re in win now mode and had needs at both running back and wide receiver, but both deals were overpays. Johnson gets 21 million over 3 years with this deal, including 10 million guaranteed. I thought he’d get something closer to what Anquan Boldin got from the 49ers last off-season, a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed.

Johnson is going into his age 34 season coming off the worst statistical season of his career in terms of yards per game since his rookie year. He caught 85 passes for 936 yards and 3 touchdowns on 141 targets (60.3%) and 487 routes run (1.92 yards per route run) and only graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 40th ranked wide receiver. He’s currently #12 on the NFL’s all-time receiving yardage list and likely Hall-of-Fame bound someday, but even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Johnson is a declining player who could soon become a rapidly declining player. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was losing snaps to talented 2nd year receiver Donte Moncrief late in the season.

Grade: C

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